Israel is already breaking the ceasefire conditions. Ref: "Netanyahu: Ceasefire doesn’t cover Lebanon" https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-cease...

Saudi Arabia has something like twice as many jet fighters than France. Even if you factor incompetence, it's not hard to hit a cargo ship or an oil production facility in absence of any meaningful air defence.

> So we go and say "a whole civilization will die tonight"

As it turns out, it's not just Trump's immense wealth that's worthy of a Croesus.

They had to rapidly back off when they realized which civilization that was

Gas prices going up across the country shows that all of the US is reliant on foreign oil, even if none of it ever touches the state.

The idea of counting "reliance" based on the exact shipping route that serves you today is nonsense.

> One merely has to look at current US gas prices to see how utterly silly that notion is!

We could probably slash gas prices by banning oil exports, thus removing domestic oil supply from global market pricing (barring smuggling). The oil industry would probably hate that, though, for obvious reasons.

Ultimately, though, this is yet another wakeup call for why an economy and society built around lighting a finite resource on fire is a bad idea, and hopefully this time around that wakeup call sticks.

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The war hasn't even started. What you have seen is the amuse-bouche. What you would see, if there was a real war going on, is the end of the iranian civilization.

This little school yard fight was just Trump trying to get a peace prize. He miscalculated, so as soon as things are back to normal, he will declare victory, ignore all facts to the contrary and go home.

As always I thank Trump for the amazing investment opportunities he is always creating! =)

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More like not killing, imprisoning and torutring 100s of thousands of iranians. It is amazing how the global left all of a sudden forgot their feminism and are cheering on an authoritarian and violent regime.

> Like not attacking civilian infrastructure?

No. I'd actually say freedom of navigation [1] is almost the definition of a Pax. It's precedented across millenia in a way prohibitions on total war are not.

Let me be clear, prohibitions on total war are good. But they're also a new concept and one clearly the world's powers don't agree on to one iota. Freedom of navigation, on the other hand, benefits everyone but autarkies, and has for, again, millenia.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_navigation

If you want to argue from a power prospective then the US and Israel can just do whatever they want too and any moralistic argument seems easy to shelve. It cuts both ways.

The Gulf States aren’t going to pay a tax to Iran. It’s a matter of principle - can’t live as a hostage and this is the weakest that the Iranian regime has been in quite some time. Better to keep the straight closed and make it painful for everyone else too.

Closing the strait for 1 week is 1.9% of annual traffic if equally distributed, so it is very similar.

Moreover, USA has been the first who has stopped respecting the freedom of navigation, by implementing a blockade of Cuba and preventing the oil tankers to reach Cuba, already since February, before the Iran war.

USA does not respect any international law, but it demands from others to do this.

Iran has been funding and arming groups which threaten maritime security for a while now. They also have been obviously attempting a nuclear weapons program while saying if they achieve their aim that they will do crazy shit.

I guess the games you think are stupid depend immensely on your priors.

Oman isn’t the only country in the region, and any country should expect their ships to sail peacefully. Last I checked it’s the US and Israel at war with Iran, not others - no justification for charging transit fees.

Second, you’re ignoring decades of history and picking an arbitrary point to say that’s when some animosity started. Nobody forced Iran to build all these missiles and to try and build a nuclear weapon or kill their own people or fund actual terrorist groups as designated by the United States and European Union. If you drag out negotiations long enough you never get bombed! What a thought lol.

> Iran has been respecting that principle for decades

May 2022: two Greek Tankers seized by IRGC commandos

2023: Tankers Advnatage Sweet and Niovi seized by IRGC commandos

Jan 2024: St. Nikolas seized by Iranian Navy

Apr 2024: MSC Aries seized by IRGC commandos

During the Tanker War 1981 - 1988: Iran was responsible for approximately 168 attacks on merchant ships

July 1987: Kuwait tanker MV Bridgeton struck by Iranian mine April

1988: USS SAmuel B. Roberts nearly sunk by Iranian mine.

2019 Limpet Mine Attacks

July 2021: Iranian drone strike on MT Mercer Street

Nov 2022: Pacific Zircon struck by Iranian drone

> play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

Yeah, the game Iran is now trying to play is called “Pipelines and Pirates”.

There’s actually a ship deployed to the region right now named after the standard US response to this game, the USS Tripoli.[1]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Barbary_War

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hmm? Suez is a man-made facility, and it costs money to operate it

so... maybe we should go back to the pirate days yarrr?

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Their military capabilities aren’t that great and they’re scared most likely. Iran is the big neighborhood bully and stockpiled thousands of missiles. Better to let the US Navy and US Air Force take out Iran’s capabilities to limit destruction of their civilian facilities which Iran has threatened to blow up. But hey they can just round up civilians and put them next to the desalination plants like Iran did the bridges. You think that will stop the Iranians? ;)

And folks it has been just over a month. Give it time. The Gulf States are already placing orders for military equipment from countries like Ukraine - the one that has experience fighting drones that Russia buys from… you guessed it - Iran!

nobody will want to fight for Gulf monarchies, it is actually the opposite: population has a great incentive to overthrow the rich decadent UK-installed monarchies and redistribute oil revenues more fairly.

US was a guarantor of peace for monarchies, but seems like not anymore

It doesn’t really bother the US specifically, it raises oil prices for everyone. The only difference is the US is the only that has a military that can actually do anything about it. We’re not going to let them charge ships like that nor would the Gulf States allow it - it’s existential. They expect to be able to trade products on the free market under safe seas like any other country. This is a core global principle. If the US walks away this failure falls on the global community for continuing to stand by and do nothing while these guys load up on missiles and try to build a nuclear weapon and then they can charge even more for the straight.

Trump will just spin it as a win by saying that ships are moving through the SoH again and not mentioning the Iran tollbooth. Most of his supporters won't question it.

There's not much of a real way to see what we say on this site because most of it gets flagged in violation of the rules.

Trump could easily agree to it and consider that “their problem”. (I think Iran realize other countries have a say as well.)

"Infotainment" is the term I've heard to describe Reddit and other talking websites. People are looking to "win" like they do in sports or other recreational activities. It's a kind of fun that disguises itself as learning-- minus, of course, the actual work.

That's why people come here, they learn these things in the comments.

TACO enjoyers always come out on top.

> US backed down -- TACO Trump shows up again.

It's stunning to me, that people still do not understand Trump's one-and-only playbook. He literally published a book about his one-and-only strategy all the way back in 1987 - yet people still freak out when he makes big demands then settles for more realistic options. The guy literally has used the same strategy over and over, and everyone acts like it's the first time every time.

It's also stunning to me the very same people that were losing their minds about threatened events immediately switch into "TACO" mode when those events don't happen.

In this situation, Trump made wild threats and demands if Iran didn't agree to a ceasefire. Iran initially rejected but then some 6 hours later accepted. The one-and-only playbook strikes again.

How is it backing down when his threat was we’d do it if they didn’t agree to open up the strait, which is now open?

I don’t like the way he does things but we’ve seen Trump’s playbook enough to see what he does. Big threat, followed by the US getting some sort of capitulation from it. He then doesn’t follow through with the threat.

That’s not chickening out. That’s just negotiating with a big stick.

> The US didn't back down, it used a credible mad-man style threat to get what it wanted.

Okay. Tell me, what did the US got? You say they got what they wanted. What is that they wanted and now got?

It's a bad strategy.

A high schooler could tell you that.

The 12 D chess explanation, people still believe this?

This whole thing is a debacle. Trump was manipulated by his betters into engaging a war he doesn't understand at all [0], and while flailing he just reached for the most insane threat he could imagine.

The madman theory ironically actually requires a sane and competent person to perform the bluff, [1] which is not the case here.

[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-wa...

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory

"I will end your civilization" is not credible. He'd lose a war powers vote and likely be removed if he even started down that path. To say nothing for the logistical impossibility.

He's not doing some Scott Adams master persuader nonsense. He spent a month being ignored by his counterparty so he just kept amping up the rhetoric until he was threating actual genocide. With human shields placed around the infrastructure he promised to attack, the president desperately begged Pakistan to broker a ceasefire with two sets of terms.

it really seems like the US is just ceding to iranian terms. the US cant solve the hormuz strait problem militarily, and so it has to come to the table

That is certainly a favorable interpretation of events. I don't buy it. I think there's more evidence that he's actually an erratic, compulsive liar than some master strategist. What great deals has he secured for the US?

People keep saying this, and yet Trump just sounds like a fucking moron to me, if you’ll pardon me quoting his former Secretary of State.

Can you give me some examples of where he’s done this in the last and it actually worked?

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The US is in a worse spot than before the war. Iran won.

We will see what happens at the end of this war when people come out of their homes to a crumbling country. They could decide that enough is enough and bring in some change.

When you don't the money, you can't go bankrupt.

But, if you had an amazing reputation for paying your debts, and get super low interest rates because of it, and all of a sudden you change your reputation and demand for holding your debt and currency goes down, well, then that's created a massive problem for the currency that reduces everyone's quality of life drastically.

How can you say this with a straight face?

It bombarded all its neighbors. What is that if not an escalation against non-aggressors? Not to mention the closing of the straits which is an escalation against many other parties.

>Iran didn’t escalate against anyone except their aggressors

What about the missiles launched at Dubai?

Err what? They bombed various countries in the Middle East (not just US bases) and even a British base in Cyprus.

> Iran didn't escalate against anyone except their aggressors.

This is categorically false. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Qatar, (Kuwait,) even Oman and Turkey at various times, and Cyprus. Iran demonstrated superiority in only one respect during this war, and that was in recruiting otherwise well-meaning, levelheaded figures in media and government, even religious leaders, to spout incoherent nonsense as you did here.

“Zios” completely obliterated the top command of the regime attacking them.

As opposed to a single continuous structure in a well known location, full of flammable liquids?

Iran was little threat to the US before the US attacked. Now the US likely has earned itself more decades of terrorists, while simultaneously losing its military and political support from other countries.

If the US objective was self destruction or massive face plant, it is certainly getting closer to its objective.

All those ships stuck on either side of the Strait of Hormuz and their insurers would beg to differ.

For the sake of peace... yes ;)

To whom, and to what? A military threat to the continental US, sure. To US allies in the region, and to the global economy, it appears Iran is a much bigger threat than we were lead to believe, and still are. If anything, they're justifiably more emboldened now than ever.

The most deadly attack on US soil from the Middle East didn't come from nukes.

How sure are you that we're reducing net total future threats in the Middle East under Trump?

Then why was Trump threatening their annihilation prior to accepting the ceasefire around their proposal?

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You must not be paying attention…

So far, Trump said that the Straight of Hormuz closed is cutting off China’s oil supply and isn’t important to the US, the US doesn’t need allies, but after Trump got zero help from Europe he then proceeded to ask China of all countries to help in the straight?!

Knowing people travelling near and through the Straight, Iran has all the cards. “Iran is of little threat” doesn’t hold water when the US can’t even send ships though to protect container ships

"Regime Change" has become a modern term for vassalization. We should not be surprised that countries with no reason to be a US vassal, and no long-term ties to the US refuse to remain vassals.

So then what would we achieve? nuclear material is cheap (10s of billions) relative to a multi-decade occupation (single digit trillions). It's undoubtedly true that Iran would revert to it's preferred form of government, geopolitical orientation, and nuclear capability once the US left.

How’d that plan work out in Iraq or Afghanistan, both much smaller, less armed countries? Decades and trillions spent, and what exactly did the US “win”?

Winning a war means achieving your political goals while preventing the enemy from achieving theirs. Most of the time, you've won the war when the enemy effectively admits they lost.

The lack of will to use sufficient force to win a war is fundamentally no different from not having that force in the first place. Both are equally real constraints on your ability to win the war.

We will see if this is all the chips that Epstein bought

People are looking for conspiracy theories when the truth is simple - trump did it because he thought it would be an easy quick win that will put him in the history books.

> new government is led by the Ayatollah Khamenei

Let's see. It may be a military dictatorship using Khamenei, who may or may not even be in Iran, as a figurehead.

Knocking off the Taliban gave us the check notes the Taliban

This son is reportedly in coma and in no position to rule.

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