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sosomoxie 8 hours ago

Trump literally said he would bomb them to the stone age. It doesn’t get more maximalist than that and it was the US that backed down.

hirako2000 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

A ceasefire agreement isn't an end of war agreement.

Typically that means backing down on objectives/demands otherwise that would be the end of it.

lateforwork 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Stone age is old news. The latest threat is that an entire civilization will die. And yes, US backed down -- TACO Trump shows up again.

nozzlegear 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

TACO enjoyers always come out on top.

Invictus0 7 hours ago | parent [-]

[flagged]

8note 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

he's chickened out of getting regime change primarily.

in terms of shifting war goals, he's chickened out on getting back to the status quo from before the war.

rather than chickened out, the US is the sound loser of this war. the best outcome the US can negotiate for now is worse than what they could get before the war

matheusmoreira 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Meanwhile Iran continues to blow up oil prices which is devastating for the entire world's economy, to say nothing of the USA's economy and especially Trump's popularity.

Alupis 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Crude oil is down 17% today alone.

outside1234 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Dude, they still have a huge drone force, or otherwise there would be tankers sailing

Alupis 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> US backed down -- TACO Trump shows up again.

It's stunning to me, that people still do not understand Trump's one-and-only playbook. He literally published a book about his one-and-only strategy all the way back in 1987 - yet people still freak out when he makes big demands then settles for more realistic options. The guy literally has used the same strategy over and over, and everyone acts like it's the first time every time.

It's also stunning to me the very same people that were losing their minds about threatened events immediately switch into "TACO" mode when those events don't happen.

In this situation, Trump made wild threats and demands if Iran didn't agree to a ceasefire. Iran initially rejected but then some 6 hours later accepted. The one-and-only playbook strikes again.

expedition32 7 minutes ago | parent [-]

He did it with Xi Jinping but the Chinese immediately responded in kind.

Bullying only works against the weak.

AuryGlenz 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

How is it backing down when his threat was we’d do it if they didn’t agree to open up the strait, which is now open?

I don’t like the way he does things but we’ve seen Trump’s playbook enough to see what he does. Big threat, followed by the US getting some sort of capitulation from it. He then doesn’t follow through with the threat.

That’s not chickening out. That’s just negotiating with a big stick.

cosmicgadget 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> which is now open?

Is it? Iran seems to be under the impression it is subject to their control.

lateforwork 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The strait is not open, Trump is pretending it is, to save face. Iran is charging $2M per ship, which will net them $90B and that is significantly higher than their oil revenue ($60B). Plus they get to keep their enriched uranium. Yes they lost some buildings and bridges but the strait fee is enough to rebuild. Iran is in a stronger position now than when the war started. TACO Trump lost the war.

Alupis 2 hours ago | parent [-]

> Iran is charging $2M per ship,

Iran wants to charge $2M per ship as part of it's ceasefire conditions - which will almost certainly be rejected since that would impact every ship/nation traversing these waters. Waters that are not owned by Iran.

> Plus they get to keep their enriched uranium.

There's 0% chance of that happening.

> Iran is in a stronger position now than when the war started.

All of Iran's senior leadership are dead. Most or all of the "second-string" leadership is dead. All but their ground-force military is destroyed.

herewulf 23 minutes ago | parent [-]

So we go back to all out war and a closed straight when no agreement is made.

The leadership clearly doesn't matter as neither the regime has collapsed nor have moderates emerged.

Claims of destruction of "all" military are continually invalidated by the ongoing drone and missile strikes.

bobanrocky 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Big stick?! More like whacking himself with a big stick.

Read up on his ‘playbook’ with russia, north korea, china etc ..

jrochkind1 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I mean, neither one did what they said they would do, if they had both done what they said they'd do, I guess we'd have nuclear war, so. (To the extent that you can't get anything consistent out of what Trump says he will do it's literally not possible, because he constantly contradicts himself.)

9cb14c1ec0 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

That was Trump setting up a negotiation position. It's a tactic he uses on a weekly basis, only most of the online commentariat (both on the right and left) is too dumb to catch on. The US didn't back down, it used a credible mad-man style threat to get what it wanted.

krisoft 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> The US didn't back down, it used a credible mad-man style threat to get what it wanted.

Okay. Tell me, what did the US got? You say they got what they wanted. What is that they wanted and now got?

hackable_sand 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It's a bad strategy.

A high schooler could tell you that.

Invictus0 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Fools hacker news every day. And it worked on the Iranians.

majormajor 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

If the madman act had worked there would've been some significant changes before the bombings last year. Or, ok, maybe you gotta show them you're serious. But the madman act would at least then prevent needing to attack for weeks this year. Oh, nevermind. But... third time's the charm, right! He's definitely gonna get what he wants this time?

The people running the country, killing protestors, etc, aren't trying to "win" in the same way Trump is. It's easier to avoid regime change than it is to cause it from air strikes.

wat10000 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Did it? I’m pretty sure a cease fire is something they appreciate, and they haven’t given up anything for it yet.

AuryGlenz 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

And yet it was worked for him time and time again.

I don’t like it because we’re needlessly hurting relations, but to say it’s a bad strategy is silly.

jacquesm 5 hours ago | parent [-]

We must have a completely different definition of 'it worked'. The only thing that worked here is that he managed to get Epstein off the front pages, but that will only work for so long. Oh, then there is Cuba of course.

JeremyNT 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The 12 D chess explanation, people still believe this?

This whole thing is a debacle. Trump was manipulated by his betters into engaging a war he doesn't understand at all [0], and while flailing he just reached for the most insane threat he could imagine.

The madman theory ironically actually requires a sane and competent person to perform the bluff, [1] which is not the case here.

[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-wa...

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory

cosmicgadget 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

"I will end your civilization" is not credible. He'd lose a war powers vote and likely be removed if he even started down that path. To say nothing for the logistical impossibility.

He's not doing some Scott Adams master persuader nonsense. He spent a month being ignored by his counterparty so he just kept amping up the rhetoric until he was threating actual genocide. With human shields placed around the infrastructure he promised to attack, the president desperately begged Pakistan to broker a ceasefire with two sets of terms.

8note 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

it really seems like the US is just ceding to iranian terms. the US cant solve the hormuz strait problem militarily, and so it has to come to the table

bradleyankrom 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

That is certainly a favorable interpretation of events. I don't buy it. I think there's more evidence that he's actually an erratic, compulsive liar than some master strategist. What great deals has he secured for the US?

wat10000 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

People keep saying this, and yet Trump just sounds like a fucking moron to me, if you’ll pardon me quoting his former Secretary of State.

Can you give me some examples of where he’s done this in the last and it actually worked?

lateforwork 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

[flagged]

zozbot234 7 hours ago | parent [-]

> In making threats about a civilization dying he lowered the country's standing in the world.

That threat was really about the death of American civilization as we know it, and he made good on it a long time ago.

sosomoxie 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The US is in a worse spot than before the war. Iran won.