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mgfist 9 hours ago

Yikes, so basically Iran gets everything it wants. It paid a heavy price for it, but it would get so much out of this. At pre war ship rates, that toll would be ~$90B per year ($45B if split half with Oman). Iran's government generates something like $40B in income, so this would be absolutely monumental.

chasd00 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Posts like this from the HN community are almost surreal. Any review of the actual deal would show a two week ceasefire in exchange for the strait being open and safe while negotiations continue. This 10 point plan is just a place to start talking, no country has agreed to anything on it. How is this missed on the community here?

keyle 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Who knew tech employees weren't exactly across international politics.

stinkbeetle 8 hours ago | parent [-]

No it would be trivial to gain a thorough understanding of Middle East politics and the oil market for an enlightened people who were able to become foremost experts in epidemiology, molecular biology, global supply chain logistics, the war in Ukraine, semiconductor manufacturing, and many other fields entirely self-taught simply by obsessively reading social media and wikipedia.

hitekker 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

"Infotainment" is the term I've heard to describe Reddit and other talking websites. People are looking to "win" like they do in sports or other recreational activities. It's a kind of fun that disguises itself as learning-- minus, of course, the actual work.

beaned 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

That's why people come here, they learn these things in the comments.

stinkbeetle 7 hours ago | parent [-]

It's not the people who just come to learn though.

razster 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I understand this perspective a lot more. I assume they're going to haggle and work on a few items, and adjust pieces here and there. What if they at least get sanctions lifted, that would be huge, no? Going to be an interesting couple of weeks.

bawolff 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> This 10 point plan is just a place to start talking

Its probably not even that. PR statements for public consumption rarely reflect bargaining positions behind closed doors.

pb7 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The community is not as sophisticated as you may perceive it to be.

estearum 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Nobody knows what "the actual deal" is because we have pathological liars on both sides (well, especially pathological on one side, most just utilitarian on the other)

Iran's version of events includes the Iranian military controlling the Strait and incurring fees.

AP is reporting Iran's version as the true one.

refurb 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Welcome to HN where users with little domain knowledge make comments of utter certainty about any topic under the sun.

AuthAuth 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[flagged]

icegreentea2 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

No one has agreed to the Iran's 10 point plan, and they're not going to get all of it.

The provisional ceasefire actually goes against the Iranian proposition. Point 2 explicitly is "permanent end to the war, not a ceasefire".

Iran backed down a bit here from their maximalist aims (which is what the 10 point is).

sosomoxie 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Trump literally said he would bomb them to the stone age. It doesn’t get more maximalist than that and it was the US that backed down.

hirako2000 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

A ceasefire agreement isn't an end of war agreement.

Typically that means backing down on objectives/demands otherwise that would be the end of it.

lateforwork 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Stone age is old news. The latest threat is that an entire civilization will die. And yes, US backed down -- TACO Trump shows up again.

nozzlegear 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

TACO enjoyers always come out on top.

Invictus0 7 hours ago | parent [-]

[flagged]

8note 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

he's chickened out of getting regime change primarily.

in terms of shifting war goals, he's chickened out on getting back to the status quo from before the war.

rather than chickened out, the US is the sound loser of this war. the best outcome the US can negotiate for now is worse than what they could get before the war

matheusmoreira 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Meanwhile Iran continues to blow up oil prices which is devastating for the entire world's economy, to say nothing of the USA's economy and especially Trump's popularity.

Alupis 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Crude oil is down 17% today alone.

outside1234 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Dude, they still have a huge drone force, or otherwise there would be tankers sailing

Alupis 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> US backed down -- TACO Trump shows up again.

It's stunning to me, that people still do not understand Trump's one-and-only playbook. He literally published a book about his one-and-only strategy all the way back in 1987 - yet people still freak out when he makes big demands then settles for more realistic options. The guy literally has used the same strategy over and over, and everyone acts like it's the first time every time.

It's also stunning to me the very same people that were losing their minds about threatened events immediately switch into "TACO" mode when those events don't happen.

In this situation, Trump made wild threats and demands if Iran didn't agree to a ceasefire. Iran initially rejected but then some 6 hours later accepted. The one-and-only playbook strikes again.

expedition32 8 minutes ago | parent [-]

He did it with Xi Jinping but the Chinese immediately responded in kind.

Bullying only works against the weak.

AuryGlenz 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

How is it backing down when his threat was we’d do it if they didn’t agree to open up the strait, which is now open?

I don’t like the way he does things but we’ve seen Trump’s playbook enough to see what he does. Big threat, followed by the US getting some sort of capitulation from it. He then doesn’t follow through with the threat.

That’s not chickening out. That’s just negotiating with a big stick.

cosmicgadget 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> which is now open?

Is it? Iran seems to be under the impression it is subject to their control.

lateforwork 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The strait is not open, Trump is pretending it is, to save face. Iran is charging $2M per ship, which will net them $90B and that is significantly higher than their oil revenue ($60B). Plus they get to keep their enriched uranium. Yes they lost some buildings and bridges but the strait fee is enough to rebuild. Iran is in a stronger position now than when the war started. TACO Trump lost the war.

Alupis 2 hours ago | parent [-]

> Iran is charging $2M per ship,

Iran wants to charge $2M per ship as part of it's ceasefire conditions - which will almost certainly be rejected since that would impact every ship/nation traversing these waters. Waters that are not owned by Iran.

> Plus they get to keep their enriched uranium.

There's 0% chance of that happening.

> Iran is in a stronger position now than when the war started.

All of Iran's senior leadership are dead. Most or all of the "second-string" leadership is dead. All but their ground-force military is destroyed.

herewulf 24 minutes ago | parent [-]

So we go back to all out war and a closed straight when no agreement is made.

The leadership clearly doesn't matter as neither the regime has collapsed nor have moderates emerged.

Claims of destruction of "all" military are continually invalidated by the ongoing drone and missile strikes.

bobanrocky 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Big stick?! More like whacking himself with a big stick.

Read up on his ‘playbook’ with russia, north korea, china etc ..

jrochkind1 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I mean, neither one did what they said they would do, if they had both done what they said they'd do, I guess we'd have nuclear war, so. (To the extent that you can't get anything consistent out of what Trump says he will do it's literally not possible, because he constantly contradicts himself.)

9cb14c1ec0 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

That was Trump setting up a negotiation position. It's a tactic he uses on a weekly basis, only most of the online commentariat (both on the right and left) is too dumb to catch on. The US didn't back down, it used a credible mad-man style threat to get what it wanted.

krisoft 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> The US didn't back down, it used a credible mad-man style threat to get what it wanted.

Okay. Tell me, what did the US got? You say they got what they wanted. What is that they wanted and now got?

hackable_sand 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It's a bad strategy.

A high schooler could tell you that.

Invictus0 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Fools hacker news every day. And it worked on the Iranians.

majormajor 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

If the madman act had worked there would've been some significant changes before the bombings last year. Or, ok, maybe you gotta show them you're serious. But the madman act would at least then prevent needing to attack for weeks this year. Oh, nevermind. But... third time's the charm, right! He's definitely gonna get what he wants this time?

The people running the country, killing protestors, etc, aren't trying to "win" in the same way Trump is. It's easier to avoid regime change than it is to cause it from air strikes.

wat10000 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Did it? I’m pretty sure a cease fire is something they appreciate, and they haven’t given up anything for it yet.

AuryGlenz 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

And yet it was worked for him time and time again.

I don’t like it because we’re needlessly hurting relations, but to say it’s a bad strategy is silly.

jacquesm 5 hours ago | parent [-]

We must have a completely different definition of 'it worked'. The only thing that worked here is that he managed to get Epstein off the front pages, but that will only work for so long. Oh, then there is Cuba of course.

JeremyNT 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The 12 D chess explanation, people still believe this?

This whole thing is a debacle. Trump was manipulated by his betters into engaging a war he doesn't understand at all [0], and while flailing he just reached for the most insane threat he could imagine.

The madman theory ironically actually requires a sane and competent person to perform the bluff, [1] which is not the case here.

[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-wa...

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory

cosmicgadget 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

"I will end your civilization" is not credible. He'd lose a war powers vote and likely be removed if he even started down that path. To say nothing for the logistical impossibility.

He's not doing some Scott Adams master persuader nonsense. He spent a month being ignored by his counterparty so he just kept amping up the rhetoric until he was threating actual genocide. With human shields placed around the infrastructure he promised to attack, the president desperately begged Pakistan to broker a ceasefire with two sets of terms.

8note 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

it really seems like the US is just ceding to iranian terms. the US cant solve the hormuz strait problem militarily, and so it has to come to the table

bradleyankrom 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

That is certainly a favorable interpretation of events. I don't buy it. I think there's more evidence that he's actually an erratic, compulsive liar than some master strategist. What great deals has he secured for the US?

wat10000 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

People keep saying this, and yet Trump just sounds like a fucking moron to me, if you’ll pardon me quoting his former Secretary of State.

Can you give me some examples of where he’s done this in the last and it actually worked?

lateforwork 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

[flagged]

zozbot234 7 hours ago | parent [-]

> In making threats about a civilization dying he lowered the country's standing in the world.

That threat was really about the death of American civilization as we know it, and he made good on it a long time ago.

sosomoxie 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The US is in a worse spot than before the war. Iran won.

petcat 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

They also got to keep their new Ayatollah and continue with their religious government. An escalation of the war would have certainly ended with a complete regime change. Which would have been very expensive in life (Iranians) and money (Americans).

goatlover 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

A complete regime change would probably only come with a large scale invasion, bigger than Iraq's. A huge majority of Americans don't want that.

AuryGlenz 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Or with their people rising up, which is I think what the US and Israel were hoping for - though they didn’t seem to plan for a way to actually make it happen.

flyinglizard 5 hours ago | parent [-]

We will see what happens at the end of this war when people come out of their homes to a crumbling country. They could decide that enough is enough and bring in some change.

Alupis 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Without arms, it is probably impossible for the people to take back their country.

We take the Second Amendment for granted here in the US - but the lack of a similar thing in Iran is what will keep the civilian population under the regime's control - or else another 10k-30k+ massacre.

spaghetdefects 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

There was never going to be a regime change. Continuing the war meant many Americans were going to die (in addition to bankrupting the US). I'm a US citizen and very glad Iran came out on top here.

gizajob 8 hours ago | parent [-]

US is bankrupt to the tune of trillions already.

epistasis 7 hours ago | parent [-]

When you don't the money, you can't go bankrupt.

But, if you had an amazing reputation for paying your debts, and get super low interest rates because of it, and all of a sudden you change your reputation and demand for holding your debt and currency goes down, well, then that's created a massive problem for the currency that reduces everyone's quality of life drastically.

8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
[deleted]
Invictus0 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Their new Ayatollah is braindead. It's not over yet.

Ancapistani 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It depends. If it later comes out that their nuclear material was secured by the US, this is much more acceptable - it would seriously incentivize pipeline construction by making passage through the Strait more expensive. Given that closing it is really the only lever Iran has that can put pressure on the US at all, this attenuates that a great deal.

It’s not acceptable on its face, but there’s a lot going on in this conflict that isn’t making the news.

cramsession 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Iran has also been freely bombing Israel and US assets around the Middle East. The Zionists bit off more than they could chew and now Iran is better positioned than ever before. Not only that Iran has earned a lot of respect globally and Israel/the US has lost what little they had left.

bigyabai 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

[flagged]

YZF 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

How can you say this with a straight face?

It bombarded all its neighbors. What is that if not an escalation against non-aggressors? Not to mention the closing of the straits which is an escalation against many other parties.

deminature 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Its neighbors are hosting US bases which were used to launch attacks on Iran. Bahrain in particular hosted the largest US radar station in the region which was being used as the control centre to coordinate the attack on Iran [1]. These countries were absolutely not 'non-aggressors'.

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cddq7j48p35o

ericmay 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Doesn’t excuse bombing actual civilian targets, apartment complexes, &c, nor does it excuse executing peaceful domestic protestors - all of which this Iranian government has done.

Maybe if they, idk, stopped funding Hamas, Hezbollah, and Yemen rebels stopped trying to get a nuke, stopped stockpiling missiles for no reason and stopped chanting death to America we wouldn’t be here.

acdha 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The Iranian government is terrible, but that doesn’t mean that the U.S. relationship with the gulf states isn’t worse off than in February. The United States made our alignment with Israel hard to ignore and was significantly unable to protect allied countries while drawing fire onto them. It’s entirely possible for both sides to lose a war and I’d bet we’re going to see enough of a shift away from us, likely to China, to solidly count this as a loss.

YZF 7 hours ago | parent [-]

It hard to say which way this goes. It's a possibility. But China can offer even less protection than the US can.

We have seen that the US ability to project power is great. We've also seen (and I don't think anyone didn't know that) that power has its limits. Especially when it comes to fighting fanatics with nothing to lose.

The US is still the only world power that has the ability to e.g. prevent Iran from just walking in and taking the gulf countries. It's true that protection isn't hermetic.

oa335 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> It's true that protection isn't hermetic.

But hermetic protection is REALLY important when your entire economy is based off of oil and water desalination plants. Iran still retains the ability to damage that infrastructure. The Gulf countries have some hard decisions to make, but I wouldn’t be surprised if several of them sprint closer to Iran. Already we are hearing of a joint Omani-Irani agreement on Hormuz administration…

YZF 6 hours ago | parent [-]

But it's not new that there's no hermetic protection.

There is no real possible alignment between the regime in Tehran and the Sunni Emirates or Saudi Arabia or Kuwait. There is no way they are sprinting closer to Iran.

Oman is more complicated but they are also not going to align with Iran.

It's hard to evaluate but I don't see huge shifts from the gulf states. The US is still their best bet (not to mention that they are heavily invested in that). They have major investments that aren't oil, i.e. unlike Iran they can live very comfortably even if the energy sector is shut down. They prefer to make money from oil and gas but they also prefer a weaker Iran.

It's looking like more of the same and counting down to the next round.

oa335 6 hours ago | parent [-]

> it's not new that there's no hermetic protection.

I think what new is the realization of Iran’s willingness to escalate.

> There is no real possible alignment between the regime in Tehran and the Sunni Emirates or Saudi Arabia or Kuwait. There is no way they are sprinting closer to Iran.

Can you please expand on that? I don’t understand why they couldn’t be aligned.

YZF 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Iran are Shia and the other gulf countries are Sunni. There is a big religious gap between these and historical animosity and rivalry.

The Islamic Republic of Iran believes in exporting the revolution: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exporting_the_Islamic_Revoluti...

Basically they believe the rulers of the gulf countries should be overthrown and that those countries should be run by Islamic rules. So basically MBZ who rules the UAE (as an example) wants to keep ruling the country and strike some balance between economic prosperity and maintaining his rule while Iran would want to see him removed and his government replaced by a theocratic regime. Naturally the UAE also wants not to be bombarded by Iran but the personal survival of the UAE rulers is a bit more important to them than that goal.

nozzlegear 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> We have seen that the US ability to project power is great. We've also seen (and I don't think anyone didn't know that) that power has its limits. Especially when it comes to fighting fanatics with nothing to lose.

My unprovable pet theory is that the US would've had less black eyes if we didn't have incompetent people like Kegseth in charge, and especially if he hadn't been allowed to dismiss top brass across the military just because they were too woke/not "warrior" enough.

lostlogin an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Doesn’t excuse bombing actual civilian targets, apartment complexes, &c, nor does it excuse executing peaceful domestic protestors

Reading just this far and it could be either the US or Iran you’re talking about. It almost makes you think…

deminature 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Nobody is taking the side of the IRGC here, it's an awful regime that should fall in a just world. But it's inevitable they will retaliate against their neighbors, if their neighbors are complicit in attacking them. Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait are not innocent, they picked a side and are paying for it.

ericmay 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

That’s fine just stop grandstanding about little ole’ Iran being attacked or civilians dying if you don’t care that innocent civilians in other countries are dying. When you do you are taking a side and suggesting Iran is the moral actor here. They’re not.

YZF 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Lots of people here are taking the side of the IRGC. It's not ok to attack the civilians of the gulf countries because they are aligned with the US whichever way you look at it. Attacking US military assets are fair game.

kelipso 7 hours ago | parent [-]

Lots of people are taking the side of the US, which has attacked civilian infrastructure and killed civilians in Iran and threatened to completely destroy Iran. And you have lots of people taking the side of Israel, which is has been conduction a genocide openly. All the sides have blood in their hands but I would argue the IRGC has the least blood in their hands.

YZF 6 hours ago | parent [-]

There is no data based view of this world where the IRGC and the Islamic Republic doesn't have the most blood on their hands and is the least moral player here by modern standards by far. Just in 1988 they executed 30,000 people. In 2025 at least 1000. In 2026 10's of thousands.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202601255198

https://www.amnesty.org/en/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/mde130...

https://www.ecpm.org/2025/02/20/the-death-penalty-in-iran-th...

Dissidents are being hanged in Iran as we write this.

Israel has claims of self defense after being brutally attacked. The US has claims of wanting to take down the regime and prevent them from getting nuclear weapons. You can argue about claims and actions. The Iranian regime has no shred of excuse other than their total lack of humanity.

6 hours ago | parent [-]
[deleted]
7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]
[deleted]
YZF 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I would still call countries that host a radar station non-aggressors as they were not active participants. Either way Iran was pretty selective in terms of its "aggressor" definition. It didn't attack Syria or Iraq despite those countries contributing their air space. It didn't really attack Turkey other than like 3 rockets that were shot down.

Clearly this was not about attacking someone that's attacking you or military assets. This was about leverage. Attacking civilians and civilian infrastructure of countries that are assumed to have some lever over the US to force it to stop while at the same time are too weak or too afraid to defend themselves (which is why you did not see the same scale of attacks e.g. against Turkey despite it also hosting the US). It's a tactic. It's also a war crime.

fernandopj 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Correct. The implied pressure was "you want to stop the retaliation, demand the US to withdraw their bases from you territory".

Iranian strategy in this war will be studied for ages.

qsera 7 hours ago | parent [-]

But isn't the same thing done by Putin to Ukraine?

fernandopj 6 hours ago | parent [-]

I fail to see what similarity you are implying.

Russia is the aggressor there, and I don't recall Ukraine targeting other countries with Russian bases. Also, the war in Ukraine is about Russia expanding territory so it involved boots and occupation since day one, which is not the case in Iran.

qsera 2 hours ago | parent [-]

At least there is an idea that at least one of the reason Russia attacked Ukraine was to prevent it from joining NATO, which would have enabled US military bases in Ukraine.

xdennis 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Azerbaijan does not have US bases. It was bombed anyway.

recroad 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It attacked American assets in the Gulf.

anigbrowl 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[flagged]

cedws 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

>Iran didn’t escalate against anyone except their aggressors

What about the missiles launched at Dubai?

8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
[deleted]
asib 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Err what? They bombed various countries in the Middle East (not just US bases) and even a British base in Cyprus.

unyttigfjelltol 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> Iran didn't escalate against anyone except their aggressors.

This is categorically false. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Qatar, (Kuwait,) even Oman and Turkey at various times, and Cyprus. Iran demonstrated superiority in only one respect during this war, and that was in recruiting otherwise well-meaning, levelheaded figures in media and government, even religious leaders, to spout incoherent nonsense as you did here.

lolcopedope 7 hours ago | parent [-]

[dead]

recroad 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[flagged]

gizajob 8 hours ago | parent [-]

“Zios” completely obliterated the top command of the regime attacking them.

lokar 7 hours ago | parent [-]

I don’t think you understand Iran

acjohnson55 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

A pipeline will circumvent Iranian tolls, but would be vulnerable to Iranian strikes in a war.

dingaling 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Probably a risk worth taking; defending a pipeline is much easier than escorting huge, slow-moving ships through a 24km-wide Strait laced with mines and peppered by artillery and missiles.

XorNot 35 minutes ago | parent [-]

As opposed to a single continuous structure in a well known location, full of flammable liquids?

sosomoxie 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The US did not secure nuclear material. No one has even made that claim and it was logistically impossible.

spuz 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Nothing has been agreed yet except a 2 week ceasefire.

cmilton 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It all sounds great. Which government? Is it a different regime? If not, why would the US concede?

marricks 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> why would the US concede?

Because it has no way of achieving its objectives.

cmilton 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I don't think that has stopped anything so far, but I appreciate your optimism.

derektank 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

More accurate to say that the US is not willing to pay the price to achieve its objectives I think (depending on who/when you’re asking what exactly the objectives are of course).

firesteelrain 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It did achieve its objectives. Iran is of little threat.

SideQuark 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Iran was little threat to the US before the US attacked. Now the US likely has earned itself more decades of terrorists, while simultaneously losing its military and political support from other countries.

If the US objective was self destruction or massive face plant, it is certainly getting closer to its objective.

firesteelrain 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I’ve had no spam calls. Mission Accomplished.

BobbyJo 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

This ignores the possibility that we have set their nuclear program back to starting from scratch.

SideQuark 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It ignores we already had that, in 2016, with experts from all over the world doing inspections and agreeing it worked. Then Trump blew up the deal against the wishes of the rest of the free world, claiming he’d make a better deal, which he got zero from. Advisors, both hand picked and military, told him this would be the outcome, which he ignored.

We have not set their program to zero. They now have, and will continue to have, people trained in the knowledge of how to rebuild it. They now have massively more incentive to do so. Countries in the region now have more reason to help. Countries the world over have more incentive to contain US idiocy, as yet again we screw their economies for made up reasons.

As do their allies, and the raft of allies the US has lost over this idiocy will hurt US for decades, likely never to be repaired.

This is why Iran has won. The US has so destroyed brand US that it’ll never regain trust anywhere, economically, militarily, or morally.

BobbyJo 6 hours ago | parent [-]

> It ignores we already had that, in 2016, with experts from all over the world doing inspections and agreeing it worked. Then Trump blew up the deal against the wishes of the rest of the free world, claiming he’d make a better deal, which he got zero from. Advisors, both hand picked and military, told him this would be the outcome, which he ignored.

1) JCPOA was in effect for barely more than two years. Iran's nuclear work prior started way back circa 2000. It was killed before we can say anything about its effectiveness.

2) IIRC, JCPOA didn't prevent Iran from developing nuclear tech. It only limited capacity. They were free to do all the R&D they wanted.

3) Iran was doing weaponization work prior to the deal which they didn't disclose. So taking them at their word on the subject is probably not a good idea.

Trump pulling out from the deal was dumb, because it probably was slowing weaponization down, but the idea that the deal was stopping Iran from developing weaponization tech is not supported by the aims of the deal itself.

> We have not set their program to zero. They now have, and will continue to have, people trained in the knowledge of how to rebuild it.

Very close to it. Lots of facilities were destroyed, and I believe a majority of their scientists were killed.

> They now have massively more incentive to do so.

Debatable. I can see it going either way.

> Countries in the region now have more reason to help. Countries the world over have more incentive to contain US idiocy, as yet again we screw their economies for made up reasons.

Nearly all the countries in the region want Iran gone. They are a destabilizing force for all their neighbors.

> As do their allies

Iran has pretty much 0 official allies. Their only allies come in the form of "we hate the US too, so we will help you be a thorn in their side"

> This is why Iran has won

Won what? If that's winning, then I'll take losing.

> The US has so destroyed brand US that it’ll never regain trust anywhere, economically, militarily, or morally.

This remains to be seen I think. Honestly, if Europe kicks us out I'll be happy personally. I look forward to the day the US isn't running the oceans as a toll road for the globe and everyone handles their own backyards. I think we are far enough past WW2 that the world no longer needs a nanny.

Hikikomori 2 hours ago | parent [-]

4 years as an provisional deal was done earlier. All us intelligence agencies agreed and testified to congress that Iran was not working towards a bomb as Trump ripped up the agreement. They were all wrong or what?

>This remains to be seen I think. Honestly, if Europe kicks us out I'll be happy personally. I look forward to the day the US isn't running the oceans as a toll road for the globe and everyone handles their own backyards. I think we are far enough past WW2 that the world no longer needs a nanny.

Pretty rich to day this given what US is doing now.

BobbyJo 30 minutes ago | parent [-]

You are ignoring the fundamental difference between the JCPOA's goals and the argument here. JCPOA was not a denuclearization agreement, it wasn't even a "no atomic bombs" agreement. All it did was limit centrifuge count, and enrichment density. Iran complying with those was mostly useless for the goal for the goal of preventing them getting an atomic bomb. It was effectively a stalling maneuver, one that would have partially expired last year.

cosmicgadget 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Weird, just a few days ago he said we needed two more weeks of war to destroy their nuclear program.

acjohnson55 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

All those ships stuck on either side of the Strait of Hormuz and their insurers would beg to differ.

feb012025 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

For the sake of peace... yes ;)

PierceJoy 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

To whom, and to what? A military threat to the continental US, sure. To US allies in the region, and to the global economy, it appears Iran is a much bigger threat than we were lead to believe, and still are. If anything, they're justifiably more emboldened now than ever.

throwaway173738 6 hours ago | parent [-]

If you keep picking fights with someone don’t be surprised if they learn how to fight. There’s literally a line in Sayings of Spartans about teaching your enemy to fight by making war with them.

majormajor 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The most deadly attack on US soil from the Middle East didn't come from nukes.

How sure are you that we're reducing net total future threats in the Middle East under Trump?

goatlover 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Then why was Trump threatening their annihilation prior to accepting the ceasefire around their proposal?

NomDePlum 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

[dead]

alfiedotwtf 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

You must not be paying attention…

So far, Trump said that the Straight of Hormuz closed is cutting off China’s oil supply and isn’t important to the US, the US doesn’t need allies, but after Trump got zero help from Europe he then proceeded to ask China of all countries to help in the straight?!

Knowing people travelling near and through the Straight, Iran has all the cards. “Iran is of little threat” doesn’t hold water when the US can’t even send ships though to protect container ships

firesteelrain 7 hours ago | parent [-]

I don’t think the US signed up to protect Chinese or Indian ships through the Strait. Also, it’s not blocked.

https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/strait-of-hormuz-a-citrini...

lumost 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Because it doesn’t have a choice. There is no path to winning this war, just ways of making larger and more complex versions of the Iraq occupation.

acjohnson55 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Depends on what you mean by "win". It would be possible to go in, topple the regime and secure the nuclear material. But only at astronomical cost and years of blowback

lumost 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

"Regime Change" has become a modern term for vassalization. We should not be surprised that countries with no reason to be a US vassal, and no long-term ties to the US refuse to remain vassals.

So then what would we achieve? nuclear material is cheap (10s of billions) relative to a multi-decade occupation (single digit trillions). It's undoubtedly true that Iran would revert to it's preferred form of government, geopolitical orientation, and nuclear capability once the US left.

SideQuark 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

How’d that plan work out in Iraq or Afghanistan, both much smaller, less armed countries? Decades and trillions spent, and what exactly did the US “win”?

amluto 5 hours ago | parent [-]

The US won the removal of a regime in Iraq that strongly opposed Iran. </sarcasm>

jltsiren 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Winning a war means achieving your political goals while preventing the enemy from achieving theirs. Most of the time, you've won the war when the enemy effectively admits they lost.

The lack of will to use sufficient force to win a war is fundamentally no different from not having that force in the first place. Both are equally real constraints on your ability to win the war.

wrs 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Why would the US start this in the first place? Be assured that however this comes out, a “Truth” will be posted assessing it as the Greatest Deal Ever and a Total Win, end of story.

8note 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

a major reason would be that they didnt think iran could selectively close the strait, and the intelligence about how not liking the current government is not the same as supporting the US

sosomoxie 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It’s been repeatedly stated by officials that we fought this war for Israel. We had nothing to gain and much to lose, and lose we did. Thankfully Israel also lost and I think this was their last chance at using the US as their attack dog.

kraken_cult 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

We will see if this is all the chips that Epstein bought

mupuff1234 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

People are looking for conspiracy theories when the truth is simple - trump did it because he thought it would be an easy quick win that will put him in the history books.

sosomoxie 5 hours ago | parent [-]

It’s not a conspiracy theory if Trump and all parties involved explicitly state this was for Israel. The simplest explanation is that they are telling the truth, which makes sense since the US had nothing to gain from this.

rsynnott 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Netanyahu has wanted to do this for decades. If you rob a bank, you don't get to say "oh, well, my crazy friend down the pub has been saying we should rob a bank for ages, and I suddenly decided he was right"; you do have some personal responsibility.

tw04 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> If not, why would the US concede?

Because Trump is already facing a bloodbath in the midterms and his next step is either a ground war or dropping a nuke, and both of those will ensure he not only loses the midterms but has a legitimate shot at seeing the inside of a prison cell.

goatlover 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Because the escalation Trump was talking about would have wrecked the ME with Iran's retaliation on desalination plants, oil infrastructure, power plants, etc. Which would have been a massive shock to the global economy, along with a large humanitarian crisis inside of Iran and it's neighbors.

jojobas 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The old government is largely dead. The new one has a carrot and a stick in front of them.

ceejayoz 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The new government is led by the Ayatollah Khamenei. The son of the last one, younger and out for revenge.

Knocking off Saddam gave us ISIS. These things have a way of going sideways.

JumpCrisscross 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> new government is led by the Ayatollah Khamenei

Let's see. It may be a military dictatorship using Khamenei, who may or may not even be in Iran, as a figurehead.

int_19h 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Not the military, the IRGC. Which is a religiously indoctrinated military.

So it would still be a theocracy, same as before, but now also run by people who are conditioned to believe that more violence is always a solution to any problem.

alfiedotwtf 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Knocking off the Taliban gave us the check notes the Taliban

derektank 8 hours ago | parent [-]

The IRGC is probably more analogous to the Ba’ath party than the Taliban if we’re limiting ourself to regional comparisons

jojobas 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This son is reportedly in coma and in no position to rule.

ceejayoz 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Yay! We cut off two of the hydra’s heads! That always ends well.

sosomoxie 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Reported by whom?

alfiedotwtf 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

So who has the authority to claim that Iran has agreed to a ceasefire?!

joshsyn 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[dead]

SideQuark 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The old govt was about to be toppled by people sick of it. The US attack unified those people behind the leaders son, someone they’d not have taken before, and entrenched a new generation against the US. So far the carrot and stick has them openly mocking Trump and the US as Trump makes threat, draws line, folds yet again, repeats.

testing22321 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

How much do you think is fair for being attacked by a superpower for no reason in illegal military action with war crimes sprinkled throughout.

Imagine it happened to you.

UltraSane 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The US attack on Iran was wrong but don't forget that Iran loves to lob ballistic missiles at Israel civilians.

King-Aaron 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> Iran loves to lob ballistic missiles at Israel civilians

Phew and I wonder why that might be!

flyinglizard 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Yea, I do wonder, why that might be? Why is a country 1500 miles away, that doesn't even share a common border, preoccupied with the destruction of Israel to the point it invested hundreds of billion of dollars in its offensive capabilities and network of proxies on every side of Israel, had a special paramilitary wing (Quds Force) for operations inside Israel, had a public clock counting down the existence of Israel and called for the destruction of Israel on each and every opportunity?

What's the obsession with the destruction of Israel? Could it be related to the fact that an Islamic Republic of (...) could not accept a Jewish rule right in the middle of the great Muslim Ummah?

King-Aaron 5 hours ago | parent [-]

So you really can't see what the problem is that the Israelis have caused in this region, can you.

UltraSane 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Jews existing is a problem for Iran

UltraSane 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Because they have a very deep and irrational hatred of Jews that stems directly from the way the koran talks about them.

sph 36 minutes ago | parent [-]

Here's a comment to the contrary from another poster which I found illuminating: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47605903

markovs_gun 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The US and Israel have killed over 3,000 civilians in this war, mostly in Iran and Jordan. Iran has killed like 30. Their attacks are literally a hundredth of what they got and we're still trying to portray them as the bad guys. Don't get me wrong, Iran sucks, but not because of this

UltraSane 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The Shia Theocracy controlling Iran has killed thousands of civilians protesting their oppressive regime.

xdennis 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Iran has killed thousands of its civilians. The only reason it has only killed a few Israelis (excluding Oct 7) is because they can't easily get past Israeli defenses.

YZF 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[flagged]

Paradigm2020 6 hours ago | parent [-]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_genocide?wprov=sfla1

Not that long ago. Just a reminder.

If the USA and Israel had really wanted to stop evil regimes they could have gone to Sudan maybe?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Fasher_massacre?wprov=sfla1

YZF 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Wikipedia is not a reliable reference here. It's a propaganda tool.

https://www.piratewires.com/p/how-wikipedia-s-pro-hamas-edit...

The Islamic Republic has killed a vast number of people over its reign. The main problem though is their drive for nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles and their exporting of violence beyond the borders of their country.

I'm not sure what sort of military action you're proposing to solve the civil war in Sudan but if there's a solution I'd be interested in hearing it.

ajsnigrutin 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

What? Iran was attacked by israel numerous times, including today. It has the right to defend itself.

If anything, it's israel here that has attacked almost all countries in the area and annexed land from them ("buffer zones").

UltraSane 2 hours ago | parent [-]

How does shooting ballistic missiles with cluster warheads at residential areas help defend Iran?

cramsession 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[flagged]

huggerl88 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

[dead]

petcat 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[flagged]

llmthrow0827 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The Ayatollah that the Americans assassinated under the guise of peace talks had a fatwa against having a nuke.

America has admitted that they (tried to and maybe were successful in) sending arms to the fifth column attempted uprising.

Try to get your information from somewhere that isn't American/Israeli propaganda.

petcat 8 hours ago | parent [-]

> The Ayatollah that the Americans assassinated under the guise of peace talks had a fatwa against having a nuke.

Try to get your information from somewhere that isn't Iranian propaganda.

ted_bunny 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Try to get your information from somewhere the sun shines.

bdangubic 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

why do we care? there are many other countries around the world that are much worse and we are not sending our soldiers to die there or spending billions of dollars bombing various islands and mountains to fertilize them for next harvest season

spaghetdefects 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Israel stole nuclear secrets from the US, has committed genocide against its neighbors and literally exists solely on ethnically cleansed land. They have blackmailed multiple US presidents. Thankfully Iran won this war and can keep Israel in check until it permanently disappears.

donkeybeer 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Hey man I am a Mileikowski, he is a Androvich, she is a Berg, etc etc we are all totally the real ancient keepers of the Levant, trust us. Don't listen to the people already living there for decades and centuries before we landed there from europe a few decades ago.

xbmcuser 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

That is us and Israel made up bull shit

petcat 8 hours ago | parent [-]

When did the US "make up" the spraying of bullets at protesters in Tehran? 5,000+ dead people in the streets.

ajsnigrutin 8 hours ago | parent [-]

The ones armed by US? https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politic...

And provided with starlink: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-smuggled-thousands... ?

Imagine russia or china sponsoring and arming protesters in US. The last time US was actualyl attacked it put 120k japanese people into concentration camps just because they were japanese.

JumpCrisscross 7 hours ago | parent [-]

> ones armed by US?

Were there any armed protests in Iran? I thought they were peaceful?

NomDePlum 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[dead]