> No, the real problem is that the true market-clearing price for most of these vehicles was $7500-$10000 less than MSRP (which was set knowing the regulatory environment), combined with the false calculation of depreciation based on MSRP instead of market price.

This seems like it. If you paid $29,000 for something with a $36,500 MSRP because of a $7500 credit and a few years later it's worth $22,000, the amount of depreciation you're calculating by starting from MSRP and the amount that the buyer actually experienced are off by more than a factor of two.

Meanwhile the credits caused more new sales than there would have been otherwise, which means more cars of that model available in the used market, and supply and demand is still a thing.

It's not evidence that people don't want them, it's evidence that if you subsidize something the price comes down.

Oh, you're in for a surprise. An ID.7, the updated Model 3, Ford Explorer/Capri, plus all the ones you don't have in the US - Nio, Zeekr, BYD, Renault, Skoda, Volvo, Cupra - are significantly better than the EVs of five years ago.

Presumably you’re in the US, given the models you list. Don’t look there, because the best EVs are not available in the U.S. because of trade barriers. Look at what BYD and Toyota are doing in China.

Electric vehicles are improving at the rate that batteries are improving. That is faster than you may think.

If you look just at Teslas, they go further and charge faster on smaller batteries (higher energy densities). These batteries cost less and will last far longer. And Tesla uses an older battery tech than Chinese companies use so, in fact, batteries have improved far more. And with sodium ion, there is about to be a massive improvement over the next few years.

> the now-discontinued Bolt (which was the cheapest road-tripable EV)

FYI the Bolt is back, at least for a limited run. [1]

1: https://news.gm.com/home.detail.html/Pages/news/us/en/2025/o...

>Are they really, though?

Yes, if you look beyond progress within a specific model line. For instance, there is a marked difference between the range and towing capacity of a 2023 Chevrolet Silverado EV and the Ford Lightning. The Kia EV9 offered a substantial price advantage over existing 3-row EVs when it was introduced in 2023. I think you're right that actual pricing vs MSRP is probably the biggest factor, but real and rapid improvement in the products also contributes. I know I've put off buying an EV van because I know that better options will be coming within the next 18 months.

tesla's cars literally just got remodeled what on earth do you mean bz4? toyota? yes they made their terrible impractical car actually practical in its latest form.

the teslas are newish, with new parts and better sound suppression. they also improve marginally in efficiency every year. so the 2023 will have slightly better mechanicals than the 2021 etc.

not too different ... they are very different. much improved. go read a review comparing them.

how much different is today's durango from last year's or here lemme remind you durango hasn't been updated in 15 (count them!) FIFTEEN years. other zombie gas models are out there too.

I'm looking at getting a used F-150 lightning, with the caveat that towing anything absolutely decimates your range.

The new redesign coming out next year addresses this with a huge battery size increase.

Personally I chose a new over a used Model Y this year because the Juniper release includes a new front bumper camera which could prove crucial in certain unlikely scenarios, and improve overall self-driving. It’s important enough that there are rumors they’ll offer the option of retrofitting it onto earlier versions: https://evannex.com/blogs/news/how-to-identify-your-model-y-...

Also HW4 likely unlocks significant self-driving performance that the earlier hardware stack cannot accommodate, and will support features that are yet to be released for a longer period of time.

Which is all to say: looks to me that the progress is significant.

I can’t speak for the rest, but I believe in 2023 Tesla’s all moved from HW3 to HW4.

I went from a 2020 Model 3 to a 2025 and the self driving experience is dramatically better. I’m one of those “I will never use FSD” people and I honestly love driving…but it’s so good I find myself using it constantly and just being awestruck.

I'm sure for newer EV models makers cut down on production costs but they may also cut down on quality as well.

Does real progress matter? What about the perception of progress?

Cars don’t need to be better, customers only need to think so.

Just look at the smartphone market.

What’s the cost of biofuel, and what economy does the car get? And have you looked at how it’s crash test ratings actually stand up against a modern vehicle?

> Runs entirely on plant based biofuels

You forgot, "and pollutes like crazy."

The environmental calculus of driving a new car, versus driving a 40 year old diesel engine is challenging, I admit. Moreso if you are distilling your own fuel. I would bet that a gross polluter (as California calls them) from 40 years ago are probably a net loss compared to a 20 year old ICE today.

You also get a steering column pumped through your skull in an accident, but that's another discussion I suppose.

Whats the model may i ask?

>vehicle is safe

Sure if you ignore all the safety improvements made to driving over the last 40 years...

My favorite aspect of biofuels is that allows for the machine-energy economy to compete with the human-energy economy. It allows for first world folks to use their buying power to compete with food in the 2nd and 3rd world.

There is a lot of fear around battery degradation. People don not like EVs that have come off warranty.

So, while the batteries may last 800,000 km, people start to discount the replacement cost before they even hit 200,000 km.

Consumers do not have even experience yet to value used EVs properly. It is a great time to be a used EV buyer.

ICE and EV are two market segments. They are partially substitutable, but for many ICE customers an EV is a non-starter because of charging infrastructure, which means that if one of those customers needs to replace their ICE vehicle, they need to replace it with another ICE vehicle, and cannot take advantage of price drops in new EVs. (I ran into this personally; I wanted to get an EV, but my garage does not have a charger, none of the circuits near it could support a charger, and so I need to rewire my house and get a main panel upgrade to do more than L1 charging.)

Likewise US and rest-of-world are different markets because of trade barriers.

Within the EV market segment, the resale value may be plummeting because new car prices are declining because of improved technology and higher volume. Someone who is replacing their EV or looking for a new one already has the required charging infrastructure, otherwise they wouldn't be looking. But this price drop affects only other EV buyers, because ICE buyers cannot take advantage of it.

This insulation lasts only as long as the price differential between them remains less than the capital costs of getting a L2 charger and associated electrical upgrades.

Isn't that a different way of saying the same thing?

There's no denying that ICE Engines have been around for a long time, relative to EVs. A mature technology means that any low-hanging fruit for performance improvements was found a long time ago. Remaining gains require the expensive R&D for marginal improvements that you mention.

It's not that they're "good enough" - any consumer who can do the sums would prefer a 20% better price/performance, always. It's just that such improvements are not there to be had in ICE vehicles. There is no rush to improve them, as you said.

And therefor the performance of a new ICE vehicle, 5 year old vehicle or 10 year old vehicle is well-understood, predictable. Both in terms of what the tech was when it was built, and how it has aged. EVs are less so in both of these dimensions. e.g. I would have reasonable confidence in the durability of an EV battery for a 2025 model, but much less so for a 2015 model. They're just not the same.

I feel like this shows a change in mindset these past couple decades.

More and more people buy things for the purpose of reselling them. Houses are now more investments than places to actually live in. Rubbing alcohol was bought up during Covid so people could resell. Cryptocurrency is bought with the goal of selling for double a few months later and nobody really believes in the "currency" aspect of it. Pokémon cards, originally made for kids and to play in a card game, are now all scooped up by cart load by adults so they can resell them on eBay, and those buyers hope to resell later. The 2020s has people trying to sell used cars for equal or more than their new value. Strange times.

Meanwhile, I don't really care much about resale value because when I buy a car I typically intend to drive it until it dies.

In this sense, EVs depreciating faster than ICEVs is exciting, since if my current Tacoma prematurely gives up the ghost (or I buy a second car) I can add “snag an EV for cheap” to my list of available options.

A lot of people clearly are willing to spend lots of money for irrational reasons in cars. I

If you don't resale you don't lose anything.

Just drive it till it's no longer operational or gift it away to a family member at some point and you get full value of what you paid for without a care in the world about second hand market.

I have a 5 year old Model S and it's still like new. And it has a wheel instead of a yolk.

The problems with used cars are usually:

1. The previous owner abused the car

2. There is known damage which is being kept hidden from you

Battery technology in general.

And, Tesla is an outlier here. Other EVs are progressing MUCH faster.

The GPU, sensors, trim, motors, and batteries have improved in those 5 years. I have a 2020 X and I am considering when to update. While the S and X haven’t gotten a significant improvement like the 3 and Y have they are still substantially better than before. Despite the memes I’ve consistently tried the other options, and have tried the BYD, Zyker, MG, etc available in Asia, and the Tesla are still far and away the best cars especially if you consider them in combination with the supercharger network. I think they have slowed their pace of improvement surely through a lot of Musks self inflicted fault, but the competition hasn’t yet surpassed them.

For those boosting BYD, etc, the finish is shiny but low quality, and is rife with safety red flags - an example being by in large you can watch YouTube and movies and sturr on the central screen while driving. (It’s scary in Asia with grab drivers watching videos while weaving in and out of traffic) - but the price is good.

I can't tell you about Tesla, but BMW for example did shoot themselves right in the foot by announcing literally at the launch of the iX that they are going to bring a new model with updated 800V architecture within couple years. So........why would you buy that first one, knowing that a much improved model is literally right around the corner. Consequently prices of the iX cratered, and you could have it on a lease for the same cost as a VW golf, despite being (at least in theory) 3x more expensive. The first gen cars are now so laughably cheap it's actually stupid to not buy one because they are still perfectly good very capable vehicles - but yeah, why would it keep value if it was immediately replaced by a much better model. With EVs we're in the GPU area where each model immediately displaces the last generation and within few years your top of the line flagship card is worth close to nothing.

They are definitely degrading.

Complex driver aid/“safety” systems, outrageously complicated “infotainment” systems that are also used to interact with system functions, sealed/un-serviceable transmissions, exhaust gas filtration and recirculating systems, these are all additional points of failure that represent a degradation on modern ICE cars.

These cars won’t be around 20 years after manufacture in the same way Toyota Camry and Corolla are.

Well they are, it’s a common complaint about modern cars.

https://roadwarriornews.com/autoenshittification-allows-car-...

10 years is when you really should do a heavy refresh in the engine bay. Stem the tide of oil leaks, replace perished rubber hoses, tuneup (plugs & leads) because lets be honest you never replaced those unless one was obviously broken, fix exhaust leaks, pray cat is not dead and you didnt luck out on a model with factory defects like for example Ford EcoBoost wet belt disintegrating into rubber debris in oil pickup ($10K job). Tons of brands went for lower tension piston rings in the name of ecology and gas mileage, GM EcoTec, Stellantis Tigershark, even Toyotas end up burning oil like crazy and need full engine rebuilds/new engines. Obligatory they stopped making them like they used to :) 10 years is a very dangerous age for a used car right now.

ICE cars are practically falling apart between service windows when compared to EV.

Funny. My Tesla has proven itself to be repairable. And has needed fewer repairs than my ICE car. As for the "will soon require", as https://www.motortrend.com/features/how-long-does-a-tesla-ba... verifies, at 200,000 miles a Tesla still averages being able to hold 90% of original charge. The average ICE car does not survive to 200,000 miles.

While some do need batteries sooner, some ICE cars need new engines sooner. It's a wash. Average lifespan is comparable.

(Electric would win hands down if Tesla had better manufacturing quality though.)

Knowing several people driving 10+ year old Tesla's, I have to disagree with you.

1. Yes, the range is a little less. One person got their battery replaced by a 3rd party specialist. Runs great.

2. They certainly are repairable, just take it to Tesla service or a 3rd party mechanic.

3. Even if the battery is $20k, now you essentially have a new car for only $20k.

Not really convinced the logic is right here. If the battery dies there’s still options before replacing it with a new one from the manufacturer at retail price.

Even then, batteries in EVs don’t have a 100% failure rate. There are still many 15 year old Leafs driving around on the original battery, and I’m not sure the out-and-out failures (I.e. not including gradual capacity loss) are a high number either.

Modern EVs (2016-present) have even lower failure rates again (below 1% within 200k miles including those replaced due to capacity loss)

So true!

> Tesla for example garuntees >=70% capacity for 8 years or 100k miles.

If you're used to buying used vehicles - that's not sufficient.

For context, all the cars I've bought in the last 20+ years have been at least 8 years old when I bought them. I can get an 8 year old Toyota/Honda and know I'm good for the next 5-7 years.[1]

Buying an 8 year old used Tesla with only 75% capacity? No way.

[1] Likely a lot longer. I'm right now driving a 22 year old vehicle that only started showing issues a year ago.

I'd rather they guarantee a fairly inexpensive replacement. When electrics can already give you range anxiety, 70% capacity is a deal-breaker.

100k isn't all that many for a modern used car and that's a pretty sizable hit on the range given that it's by far the biggest limitation of an EV. Given those numbers it's reasonable that a used Tesla with say 125k miles might not be able to do a 150 mile round trip on a full battery. That's a pretty big limitation for some people.

8 years or 100k miles is bare minimum I would expect a car to last without major repair work.

These cars are not worth a lot after the warranty ends because the battery replacement cost exceeds the value of the car.

>long battery warranties.

My 2009 Prius is still running at 231k, for reference.

With ICE cars, typically manufacturer warranties only are valid for the original purchaser.

All well and good but 8 years isn't that old for a car. I don't even look at cars that new. I start at 10+ years old. The drivetrain on any car should last 20 years if it's not abused and given reasonable care and even if you end up needing to replace the engine or transmission that's a few thousand dollars on an older car. What would a new battery on a 10 year old Tesla cost you? Can you even buy one?

Look to BYD instead of Tesla if you want to find rapid advancement. Tesla has not been well managed for a few years, BYD recently passed them to become the biggest EV seller

I bought Hyundai, which charges 2x faster than the Tesla

Another thing to consider is the Tesla likely makes up the majority of the used EV inventory, and Tesla has become a toxic brand

I think it's also fair to argue that it's probably more perceived, than actual.

People are obsessed with EV range, and massively concerned that used EV have degraded batteries.

Most likely there are some market inefficiencies here. Good for you, buy a cheap used EV ;)

Also many EVs are still not attractive to price sensitive consumers. And the price insensitive ones, won't buy used EV.

> And 2 years old EV is not twice as bad as current one

The new-vs-used price difference in equipment comes from multiple factors, of which "better features" is one part.

Consider what would happen if you gave someone this choice:

1. Keep your 10-year-old car. (No major upgrades from stock.)

2. Pay $X to trade it for its identical factory-sibling which was made the same day but was stored in a timeless stasis-bubble until today, so that it still has its original new-car smell.

I can't imagine anyone saying: "Well, there are zero new features, so I'll swap them for $0."

P.S.: The issues are even more obvious if the person is choosing between buying someone else's 10-year-old car versus paying an extra premium for the time-warp one, because there's uncertainty about the first vehicle's history and maintenance.

Listen, I'm literally just describing basic market dynamics here - my post is not intended as an endorsement of plainly observable phenomena.

The depreciation/utility curve has always been aggressive no matter what product you're buying. Is a 2 year-old ICE car twice as bad as a new one? Is a 2 year-old TV? Clearly not, yet they are all worth that in the open market.

For EVs the depreciation curve is especially aggressive because of perceived advancements. Are the advancements worth buying new? I dunno! You tell me - but this is clearly being reflected in the market.

From a strict utilitarian standpoint, optimizing your depreciation/utility function should mean you're buying almost every single thing used. But yet lots of people don't do that. Humans are empirically not very good utilitarians!

Range though is only one aspect to take into account when quantifying the "quality".

> If so, why aren't used dealers just including a battery swap in the price?

I think that is the main thing that needs to be figured out. I suspect the problem is that you need to get OEM battery replacements for older model cars and those aren't yet readily available or cheap. We are going to need aftermarket batteries to drive price competition in the market. The current car manufacturers aren't incentivised to support a secondary market when they are still focused on primary sales. Also not in the ICE market there is much more ability to scale capacity. The supply chain constraints for EVs, and batteries are much tighter, though that keeps getting better.

> "What part of EVs is "rapidly advancing technologically"?"

Battery capacity, motor efficiency (getting more range out of the same battery), charging rate (800V architectures for example that let you charge > 150kW), battery chemistry (wider operating temp envelope, affects charging and driving efficiency depending on environment)... the list goes on.

The batteries are also getting cheaper - which is to say for the same $ you're now (generally) getting a larger battery.

> "If so, why aren't used dealers just including a battery swap in the price?"

Because the batteries are in fact not swappable from one gen to the next, because the power electronics around them are different, peak current draw is different (and that depends on the motor it's mated with!).

Like I know it's tempting and attractive to imagine EVs like regular cars with some giant-ass AA batteries installed on them, but that's not how they work! The battery is specced as a unit with the entire electrical system and drive motor options!

Batteries need to be split into several replaceable modules, so the entire car isn't a write-off if there's a fault or damage affecting the battery

Ideally, these battery modules would be standardised and used across a wide range of vehicles.

Even 20 years ago after I got out of college the advice to "buy a couple year old Honda Civic for cheap" had stopped working because everyone knew those cars were solid so the lightly used ones already barely cost less than new and the new ones often had cheap financing deals.

I recently bought a used 2023 Camry with 29K miles fully loaded, for 29K. New for the same features which I wanted comes out to 42.6K according to the Toyota configure website, and I assume there might even be some extra fee on top of that possibly...

Cash for clunkers destroyed mountains of cars which increased pollution and forced a bunch of people up the food chain with regard to competition for used cars.

Right or wrong, the _saying_ is that "a new car loses half its value as soon as you drive off the lot." I've heard that repeated from many people across multiple regions in regards to buying a new vehicle. I've always heard half, never 10%, even if 10% is the more demonstrable amount.