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BoredPositron 2 days ago

My dad had to make the same decision and he was too vary because of the battery. He talked about his phone and that it doesn't last a day anymore while at 84% health after three years and translated it 1to1 to the car. Its hard to argue with people if they have a reference point but don't understand the differences. I guess most people just want that initial warranty for now. Are there any manufactures that give long warranties on the battery yet?

j1elo 20 hours ago | parent | next [-]

A very rough estimate for phone batteries is that they last 1000 recharge cycles. If on average you recharge every day, that's 300+ charges a year, and there you go, an expected life of 3 years. That phone is up for a battery replacement. Just like oil or wheels need to be replaced in a car.

Now, how many charges does a car battery do, and how frequently it tends to need one? The same calculation from phones can indeed be translated to cars, the only mistake is translating the end results of the calculation. Maybe that helps with your father?

TGower 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Yeah, pretty much all of them have long battery warranties. Tesla for example garuntees >=70% capacity for 8 years or 100k miles.

BeetleB 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

> Tesla for example garuntees >=70% capacity for 8 years or 100k miles.

If you're used to buying used vehicles - that's not sufficient.

For context, all the cars I've bought in the last 20+ years have been at least 8 years old when I bought them. I can get an 8 year old Toyota/Honda and know I'm good for the next 5-7 years.[1]

Buying an 8 year old used Tesla with only 75% capacity? No way.

[1] Likely a lot longer. I'm right now driving a 22 year old vehicle that only started showing issues a year ago.

amatecha a day ago | parent | next [-]

Oh yeah, my daily driver is a 20-year-old vehicle. It has cost literally just a couple $thousand in maintenance/repairs in the time we've owned it (probably around 10 years? I forget). It's getting kinda rough, but like... at least it doesn't have a battery replacement looming around the corner that would cost more than the entire price we paid for the vehicle.

I want an electric vehicle, but I'm not willing to pay the insanely high prices they go for. I typically don't want to spend more than $10k on a vehicle and I only have once (and that one got totalled in an accident literally a month or two after I finished paying off its loan). The times I've found a used EV in that price range, it's old enough that it will need a new battery soon, instantly ~doubling the price of the vehicle for me.

LeifCarrotson 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I'm in the same boat, or was until I finally caved last year and got my wife a 5 year old vehicle, everything else has had >150k miles and >10 years.

I will say that my '03 Pontiac Vibe GT, at 280,000 miles, no longer has all the horses it did when it was younger. There's still a kick from 6000 to 8200 RPM, but I'm increasingly reluctant to hit that redline once a month to "keep it fresh" like I used to. The gradual compression loss and increased leak-down rate aren't that bad, but it might be 25% fewer horses, I guess. Man, I love that car and that engine. I ought to get it a new set of rings, get the cylinders bored out smooth, and give it fresh bearings. Sadly, the rust that's appearing on the body like a cancer probably makes that not worthwhile...

The good news for electrics is that those older motors will remain almost exactly as powerful as they day when they were new for decades.

Obviously, the fuel tank is still the same size it's always been, but range is not as much of a concern on a gas vehicle because gas stations are everywhere and you can fill up rapidly.

I personally hope that this becomes less of a concern as charger density improves year over year - in particular, as EVs become ubiquitous, landlords will start including L2 chargers in apartment parking complexes. Once everyone can charge in a garage overnight, range anxiety is hugely less important.

yibg a day ago | parent [-]

> 03 Pontiac Vibe GT

So a Toyota :)

bcrosby95 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This. We have two cars.

One is 8 years old. That's old right? The other is 18 years old.

Neither have had major issues.

turtlebits a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

TCO is way important than range. You'll likely spend thousands less on maintenance on an EV.

The few oil changes on my recently out of warranty 2021 Toyota have already cost more than the entire maintenance spend on my 2017 Bolt.

Broken_Hippo a day ago | parent | next [-]

I have a car over 20 years old. I don't spend much money on maintenance. I don't have a car payment, taxes are very low, and insurance is decently cheap. Had it for a few years, have replaced brakes and some minor things. Didn't spend much on the vehicle, either.

Having a car payment would automatically be more expensive than my current vehicle. More taxes, more money each month, and so on. For electric cars, I won't get the incentives here in Norway for much longer, as they are being (mostly) phased out in the next few years.

To be fair, though: I walk a lot. I have a 5-10 minute walk to work (depending on snow). Driving takes longer. The car is used a few times a month. Realistically, my car is a luxury item and I'm lucky to live in a place that makes it so.

BeetleB a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> You'll likely spend thousands less on maintenance on an EV.

I don't spend many thousands on maintaining an ICE to begin with.

I've kept track of all car expenses since 2008 for 3 different cars. My average per year is $445. This is repairs and maintenance.

I'm not a gearhead. I know little about cars. I do whatever repairs my mechanic suggests. Things just don't break down much with reliable ICE cars.

TCO calculators are, in my experience, off by an order of magnitude. Ignore them.

> The few oil changes on my recently out of warranty 2021 Toyota

Are you doing them at the dealer? You're likely paying too much. And are you doing them on the manufacturer schedule or have you fallen prey to the "Every 3 months or 3000 miles" propaganda?

Most cars need it every 6 months. And unless your car needs some high quality oil, it's typically about $40 to get a regular mechanic to change it. So $80-100/year.

jandrewrogers a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Range is often a hard requirement, it isn’t optional. The TCO is infinite if your vehicle can’t take you where you need to go.

oblio 20 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The people you're discussing with most likely change the oil on their own.

2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]
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mulmen 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The warranty doesn’t suggest the battery will be at 70.00001% on the first day of year 9. It says if it goes below 70% it will get replaced.

That 8 year old Toyota you bought came with a 6 year/60k mile warranty. If you are comfortable driving that to 2.5x the initial warranty then a used Tesla should be good to 250k and 20 years.

BeetleB 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

> The warranty doesn’t suggest the battery will be at 70.00001% on the first day of year 9. It says if it goes below 70% it will get replaced.

The point is that they're not confident enough to say it won't be in that range. Put another way, why don't they just make the warranty 80% instead of 70%?

If Tesla's not confident in it, I definitely am not.

> That 8 year old Toyota you bought came with a 6 year/60k mile warranty. If you are comfortable driving that to 2.5x the initial warranty then a used Tesla should be good to 250k and 20 years.

We hope so, but we don't know, which is the point. Toyota has a track record. Tesla hasn't been around long enough to have a track record.

That aside, the real point is that ICE cars don't have any particular component that costs that much to replace. How much will a new EV battery cost me? Sure, on occasion you may have to rehaul your whole engine, but that's really rare. I've only known one Toyota owner who had to do that, and it cost (in today's dollars), about $6K.

When I buy an 8 year old car, I don't expect perfection. I know things will break - soon. I buy it with the confidence that repairs will not be too expensive, and even after all the repairs I'll still save a ton of money.

The other blocker is the private party market. So far I've never bought a car from a dealer. I always go private party. The standard procedure with that is you take the car to a trusted mechanic who will examine it and inform you of any potential problems. With electric vehicles, those mechanics can't do much. I've asked them. They can look at a few things like the brakes, but stuff related to the engine is beyond their ability. So whereas I may be comfortable spending a lot of money buying an ICE car from private party, I'm not for EVs.

mulmen 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

Why doesn’t Toyota make their powertrain warranty 80k miles? Or 200k?

The warranty is there to cover failures. If a pack has a defect it will drop under 70%. If it doesn’t then it will continue working beyond the warranty term.

You’re assuming linear decay and that Tesla has fit the warranty coverage tightly to that line. It seems more likely to me that Teslas warranty is designed to address unexpected exponential decay. This is consistent with ICE powertrain warranties.

everforward 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

The inconsistent part is the assured decay, as opposed to a low chance of catastrophic failure.

Your ICE car will either continue working basically the same, or it will fail catastrophically. I don't have to worry about my gas tank getting smaller over time, and even if it inexplicably does, gas stations are plentiful and stops are short.

It also makes resale rough, as people are talking about. You can salvage a power train from another scrapped car of the same model (or not, a lot of that is shared nowadays). Salvaging batteries is a bigger issue because so many will be worn down and materially worse than new, and they can be re-used which keeps their value high. Very few people have a use for an engine out of a 1983 Silverado, but a lot of people have uses for lithium ion cells.

I could probably get 2 ICE power trains for a decade old car for less than the price of a new battery pack, and I'd wager they'll go farther.

mulmen 2 days ago | parent [-]

> Your ICE car will either continue working basically the same, or it will fail catastrophically.

This simply isn’t true. Fuel injectors decay. Catalytic converters decay. O2 sensors decay. Oil decays. Air filters decay. Spark plugs decay. Piston rings decay. All of these things affect fuel economy which directly translates to range.

Additionally the ICE related accessory pumps and sensors decay and fail and need replacement. Individually these are all cheaper than a battery pack but ICE vehicles absolutely have repair costs. They just spread those costs out across the entire complex powertrain.

BeetleB 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

You're not wrong, but none of this answers the question I have: What will the capacity be at 15 years?

My current car is 22 years old. I paid a whopping $3.5K for it, and have not spent much in repairs.

My prior car - used it till it was 17 years old. Would have used it longer but someone totaled it. I paid (in today's dollars), about $12K for it. Spent very little in repairs.

The car before that - used it till it was 16 years old. I know the person who bought it from me and he used it for another 3-4 years. I paid $5.5K for it (today's dollars). Spent very little on repairs.

So anyone who's buying a 6-8 year old EV needs the following answers:

1. How long will the battery be good for?

2. How much will replacing it cost?

3. Will the savings on gas more than compensate?

com2kid a day ago | parent | next [-]

> How long will the battery be good for?

I average a little under 7000 miles a year of driving.

Based on charge/discharge cycles my EV battery should be good for roughly 20 years.

> Will the savings on gas more than compensate?

At $26k for a top of the line trim, my Bolt EUV cost me less than a comparable ICE car. I'll never save any money on gas, but I don't need to.

Not having any maintenance needs is nice though. Just an air filter.

everfrustrated a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

>What will the capacity be at 15 years?

For Tesla, the fastest capacity drop off is actually in the first couple of years. After that it plateaus quickly.

vel0city a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Anyone buying a 6-8 year old ICE needs the following answers:

1. How long will the engine and transmission actually be good for?

2. How much will replacing it cost?

You don't actually know for any given car. You can look at analysis of failure rates over time and make some kind of guess about an average for that model, but who knows about that particular one. At least with a battery you can get some pretty detailed state of health readouts, BMS technology can tell you a good bit more about battery health than what your ICE will tell you about transmission and engine wear without tearing it down.

BeetleB a day ago | parent [-]

> How long will the engine and transmission actually be good for?

Fortunately, there's a ton of data out there. Some manufacturers/models are known to be reliable. Just hone in and buy those.

I've had to do repairs, but never that expensive. Never had transmission issues (keep in mind my cars are often over 10 years old - one over 20). For engine stuff, it's just a part replacement once in a while.

I posted elsewhere, but since 2008, my average car expense is about $450/year - that's repairs + oil changes.

> How much will replacing it cost?

Individual parts? Usually, not much. The whole engine? Dump the car. You got a lemon. Did you get it checked out by a trusted mechanic before buying?

> At least with a battery you can get some pretty detailed state of health readouts, BMS technology can tell you a good bit more about battery health than what your ICE will tell you about transmission and engine wear without tearing it down.

Fair point.

mulmen 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

We have a pretty good idea how EV packs decay. This isn’t a new technology. Google searches suggest 1-2% decay per year. So a 15 year old car would have 70-85% of original range.

For pack replacements I don’t know, however it seems unlikely you’d really need to. The battery will almost certainly outlast the car. Range will be degraded but I don’t see a lot of 2005 vehicles doing cross country trips either. Even a degraded EV will be useful in town. Many people only drive a few tens of miles a day.

The cost per mile is a simple calculation. It’s a function of your local electricity prices.

BeetleB a day ago | parent [-]

"In our 2023 reliability survey, 17 percent of 2013 Tesla Model S owners told us their cars needed battery pack replacements at a cost of $15,000 each."

This is 11-12 years in.

Granted, perhaps batteries were just crappier back then, but 17% is a scary high number for me.

Also:

"This is in line with data from Recurrent, a firm that analyzes and measures EV battery performance, which found that 13 percent of EVs older than 2015 needed battery replacements. By comparison, only 1 percent of EVs newer than 2016 needed new batteries. "

The source of some of the data. What happened with 2020 vehicles?!

https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batter...

mulmen a day ago | parent [-]

> "In our 2023 reliability survey, 17 percent of 2013 Tesla Model S owners told us their cars needed battery pack replacements at a cost of $15,000 each."

What was the remaining range for those replacements?

> Granted, perhaps batteries were just crappier back then,

Tesla makes its own batteries right? When did that start?

> but 17% is a scary high number for me.

Is that high? I have no idea. How many ICE powertrains got replaced at the same time and what did it cost?

BeetleB a day ago | parent [-]

> What was the remaining range for those replacements?

Who cares? Spending $15K on battery on a used car is a hard "No!", unless the car is under $10K.

I'm thinking of buying another car next year. $15K is my budget for an ICE car - and only if it has all the bells and whistles. Otherwise it's $12K. Spending another $15K on top of that is ridiculous.

> Is that high? I have no idea. How many ICE powertrains got replaced at the same time and what did it cost?

I'd love to know. All I have are anecdotes.

mulmen a day ago | parent [-]

> Who cares?

Well I do because I only need to drive at most 75 miles a day and even a car with 30 miles of range would satisfy my commute requirements.

> Spending $15K on battery on a used car is a hard "No!", unless the car is under $10K.

Can you get a better car for $25,000.00? Would you spend $15,000.00 on a $1000.00 car?

BeetleB 15 hours ago | parent [-]

>>> What was the remaining range for those replacements?

>> Who cares? Spending $15K on battery on a used car is a hard "No!", unless the car is under $10K.

> Well I do because I only need to drive at most 75 miles a day and even a car with 30 miles of range would satisfy my commute requirements.

The point is that when comparing dollar for dollar, I can likely get a used ICE for the same price that will work out better for me. If I already had an ICE car and was looking for a second car just for daily commutes, the EV may make sense. But the hassle of having to get a rental for longer trips - I don't know if it's worth it.

Also have to consider resale value - will people buy the (already used) EV from me if the battery has significantly reduced range?

(BTW, in my social circle, I don't know anyone who's bought a used EV - they all buy new ones out of fear)

> Can you get a better car for $25,000.00?

I have a list of things I want and need from a car. I can find plenty ICE for $15K that matches my requirements. $25K is the max I'll go for an EV, figuring that I may save $10K over about 8-10 years in gas based on the calculators I've used.

I can't find even one EV that matches my requirements for $25K. Each one has some problem - too little room or some other annoying problem (e.g. Ioniq 5 not having rear wipers).

I can get great ICE cars for $15K. I cannot get a single used great EV for $25K.

a day ago | parent | prev [-]
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NDizzle 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Batteries don't work like that and you know they don't.

ricardobeat a day ago | parent | prev [-]

Fuel efficiency on an ICE can drop up to 30% after 10 years... the end result is the same. But that's not on anyone's mind when buying a used car.

maxerickson a day ago | parent | next [-]

I have a 2013 CRV with a EPA combined mileage of 25 mpg (AWD):

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/bymodel/2013_Honda_CR-V.shtm...

I get combined mileage of 26 mpg. That's a short daily commute and a couple trips a month to a town ~70 miles away.

I haven't taken particularly stellar care of it.

nomel a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> the end result is the same.

Absolutely not.

This completely ignores the relatively high initial range of ICE (especially hybrid), and the poor real world state of the EV charging infrastructure, compared to petrol.

A 30% drop in range would be an extra 5 minutes at the nearest gas station, almost guaranteed to be within a couple miles.

And, that 30% is usually cheap to get back, usually just by some combination of changing the spark plugs, running a bottle of carbon removal/fuel system cleaner through, or changing the fuel injectors.

I have an electric, but I also understand why people are avoiding electric, and why 96% of people with EV also have an ICE car [1] (including me, with my newest being ICE)!

[1] https://www.ericpetersautos.com/2023/11/10/the-stat-that-say...

a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]
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BeetleB a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Fuel efficiency on an ICE can drop up to 30% after 10 years.

Source? Both of my first 2 cars got a good 38 mpg on the highway (no AC) after their 10 year mark. 38 mpg is the same as brand new.

ragingregard a day ago | parent | prev [-]

"Fuel efficiency on an ICE can drop up to 30% after 10 years"

Complete nonsense. Every 15+ year old ICE car I've known or owned was within 5% to 10% of original fuel economy, the reliable brands actually maintained their original fuel economy or surpassed it as fuel economy improves as engine wear in completes at the 20k-40k mile mark.

If your ICE car dropped by 30% then share the brand and your maintenance history.

JKCalhoun 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I'd rather they guarantee a fairly inexpensive replacement. When electrics can already give you range anxiety, 70% capacity is a deal-breaker.

rootusrootus 2 days ago | parent [-]

Batteries are getting cheaper, and I think there is a perception issue here as well as perhaps a real issue of used parts availability.

A brand new Model 3 battery pack, for example, is in the neighborhood of 10 or 11K installed. Or at least it was about a year ago, I don't closely track prices. Blow up an engine, and you won't be far off that in an ICE car. I know someone who just dropped $18K because they blew up both the engine and the transmission in a single shot. Oops.

But the ICE car has cheaper used options, for sure, where you can probably fix a 15 year old car by dropping in a reman or used engine for under five grand. Options for used Tesla battery packs definitely exist but are nowhere as plentiful. Yet!

everfrustrated a day ago | parent [-]

There are heaps of scrapped Tesla's and used batteries are absolutely an option.

rurp 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

100k isn't all that many for a modern used car and that's a pretty sizable hit on the range given that it's by far the biggest limitation of an EV. Given those numbers it's reasonable that a used Tesla with say 125k miles might not be able to do a 150 mile round trip on a full battery. That's a pretty big limitation for some people.

rootusrootus 2 days ago | parent [-]

You're going off the minimum for a warranty replacement, which is pessimistic. Most Teslas with 125K miles have not lost anywhere even close to 30% of the capacity. Typical will be more like 15% or a bit less. And even less than that for the LFP cars, IIRC.

Some cars I expect to do much better, due to manufacturer decisions. Ford, for example, put a pretty big battery in my Lightning, and then made the top 10kWh or so unusable. So far, this means that Lightnings with 100K miles (there aren't a huge number of them yet, but they do exist) often have 0 apparent degradation, or very low single digits.

avgDev 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

8 years or 100k miles is bare minimum I would expect a car to last without major repair work.

These cars are not worth a lot after the warranty ends because the battery replacement cost exceeds the value of the car.

coredog64 a day ago | parent [-]

100k is a regulatory minimum. E.g. Toyota had to certify the original Prius traction batteries for 100k because they were considered part of the emissions control system.

scythe 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

>long battery warranties.

My 2009 Prius is still running at 231k, for reference.

cbm-vic-20 2 days ago | parent [-]

A Prius with only 50% of its battery capacity available is in much better shape than a Tesla with only 50% of its battery capacity.

HPsquared 2 days ago | parent [-]

And an early Leaf with 50% of its battery capacity is almost useless.

pornel 14 hours ago | parent | next [-]

OTOH Leaf is a proof that old batteries can be replaced and upgrade an old car.

Original Leafs were sold with a 24kWh capacity. Current ones have 48kWh for the same price, and 64kWh replacement batteries are available. So you can go from half of the crappiest range to 3× more range than when the car was brand new.

Old batteries with reduced capacity don't even have to be thrown out. There are projects that reuse old Leaf batteries for grid energy storage (any capacity is useful when they're sitting on the ground).

I'm betting that the current-gen mainstream cars will benefit similarly, especially that production volume is orders of magnitude higher now (lots of brands share the same platform and battery modules).

hcknwscommenter 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I think the numbers of those early leafs (a lot were sold), their horribly degraded batteries, and their consequently low sales price make the numbers appear a bit more dire for resale EVs as a whole than they are in reality (breakdown loss of resale value by model and other EVs are doing much better). However, I think it is also true that EV resale values are lower than they perhaps should be due to used battery fears.

coredog64 a day ago | parent [-]

There are a bunch of California-only compliance cars that were essentially given away that would depress the values in the sector. I considered picking up a used Fiat 500e, but even though it was electric, FCA still managed to mess it up and a common recommendation was to keep a few specific tools in the back that enabled quickly disconnecting and reconnecting the battery.

Loudergood 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Early air cooled leafs aren't doing anyone any favors when talking about battery aging.

redmajor12 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

With ICE cars, typically manufacturer warranties only are valid for the original purchaser.

SirMaster 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

That's never been my experience...

I just got a repair on my 2023 Camry that I bought used. It was covered under the 36,000 mile bumper to bumper warranty.

I have had previous cars repaired under manufacturer warranty and I always buy used.

I just take it to the nearest certified dealer for that brand of car and they take care of it.

encom 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

That must be a US specific thing, because that sounds demented.

rootusrootus 2 days ago | parent [-]

It is untrue in the US. Manufacturer warranty follows the car. And it does so automatically, it is tied to the VIN and not whoever has the title.

vel0city a day ago | parent [-]

Eh, its kind of mixed. Some manufacturers like Hyundai have essentially a baked in extended warranty (10y 100,000mi) that is non-transferrable, only the base warranty (5y 60,000mi) gets transferred.

HPsquared 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

That perception means you can get a good deal on a used EV.

stalfosknight 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Tesla has an 8 year battery and motor warranty.

SoftTalker 2 days ago | parent [-]

All well and good but 8 years isn't that old for a car. I don't even look at cars that new. I start at 10+ years old. The drivetrain on any car should last 20 years if it's not abused and given reasonable care and even if you end up needing to replace the engine or transmission that's a few thousand dollars on an older car. What would a new battery on a 10 year old Tesla cost you? Can you even buy one?

JKCalhoun 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

> Can you even buy one?

I would like to think 1) that the answer is yes and 2) that the price in fact come down over time as battery tech gets cheaper, markets of scale, etc.

Maybe some startup needs to go into the battery replacement market for specific popular models of 8+ year old EVs.

micromacrofoot 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Average lifespan of a car in the US is 16 years, warranty covers half of that.

Given the lowest acceptable threshold for capacity under some warranties (70%) and assuming linear degradation, a 16 year old EV would have 40% capacity (worst case). Given a typical range of 250 for EVs today, that would put you at ~110 miles on a charge.

Seems like it would be a fine car to me given the age. I'd also expect battery swaps to become more common as the industry ages, which will drive prices down.