You're not wrong, but none of this answers the question I have: What will the capacity be at 15 years?

My current car is 22 years old. I paid a whopping $3.5K for it, and have not spent much in repairs.

My prior car - used it till it was 17 years old. Would have used it longer but someone totaled it. I paid (in today's dollars), about $12K for it. Spent very little in repairs.

The car before that - used it till it was 16 years old. I know the person who bought it from me and he used it for another 3-4 years. I paid $5.5K for it (today's dollars). Spent very little on repairs.

So anyone who's buying a 6-8 year old EV needs the following answers:

1. How long will the battery be good for?

2. How much will replacing it cost?

3. Will the savings on gas more than compensate?

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com2kid a day ago | parent | next [-]

> How long will the battery be good for?

I average a little under 7000 miles a year of driving.

Based on charge/discharge cycles my EV battery should be good for roughly 20 years.

> Will the savings on gas more than compensate?

At $26k for a top of the line trim, my Bolt EUV cost me less than a comparable ICE car. I'll never save any money on gas, but I don't need to.

Not having any maintenance needs is nice though. Just an air filter.

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everfrustrated a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

>What will the capacity be at 15 years?

For Tesla, the fastest capacity drop off is actually in the first couple of years. After that it plateaus quickly.

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vel0city a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Anyone buying a 6-8 year old ICE needs the following answers:

1. How long will the engine and transmission actually be good for?

2. How much will replacing it cost?

You don't actually know for any given car. You can look at analysis of failure rates over time and make some kind of guess about an average for that model, but who knows about that particular one. At least with a battery you can get some pretty detailed state of health readouts, BMS technology can tell you a good bit more about battery health than what your ICE will tell you about transmission and engine wear without tearing it down.

	▲	BeetleB a day ago \| parent [-]
		> How long will the engine and transmission actually be good for? Fortunately, there's a ton of data out there. Some manufacturers/models are known to be reliable. Just hone in and buy those. I've had to do repairs, but never that expensive. Never had transmission issues (keep in mind my cars are often over 10 years old - one over 20). For engine stuff, it's just a part replacement once in a while. I posted elsewhere, but since 2008, my average car expense is about $450/year - that's repairs + oil changes. > How much will replacing it cost? Individual parts? Usually, not much. The whole engine? Dump the car. You got a lemon. Did you get it checked out by a trusted mechanic before buying? > At least with a battery you can get some pretty detailed state of health readouts, BMS technology can tell you a good bit more about battery health than what your ICE will tell you about transmission and engine wear without tearing it down. Fair point.

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mulmen 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

We have a pretty good idea how EV packs decay. This isn’t a new technology. Google searches suggest 1-2% decay per year. So a 15 year old car would have 70-85% of original range.

For pack replacements I don’t know, however it seems unlikely you’d really need to. The battery will almost certainly outlast the car. Range will be degraded but I don’t see a lot of 2005 vehicles doing cross country trips either. Even a degraded EV will be useful in town. Many people only drive a few tens of miles a day.

The cost per mile is a simple calculation. It’s a function of your local electricity prices.

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BeetleB a day ago | parent [-]

"In our 2023 reliability survey, 17 percent of 2013 Tesla Model S owners told us their cars needed battery pack replacements at a cost of $15,000 each."

This is 11-12 years in.

Granted, perhaps batteries were just crappier back then, but 17% is a scary high number for me.

Also:

"This is in line with data from Recurrent, a firm that analyzes and measures EV battery performance, which found that 13 percent of EVs older than 2015 needed battery replacements. By comparison, only 1 percent of EVs newer than 2016 needed new batteries. "

The source of some of the data. What happened with 2020 vehicles?!

https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batter...

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mulmen a day ago | parent [-]

> "In our 2023 reliability survey, 17 percent of 2013 Tesla Model S owners told us their cars needed battery pack replacements at a cost of $15,000 each."

What was the remaining range for those replacements?

> Granted, perhaps batteries were just crappier back then,

Tesla makes its own batteries right? When did that start?

> but 17% is a scary high number for me.

Is that high? I have no idea. How many ICE powertrains got replaced at the same time and what did it cost?

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BeetleB a day ago | parent [-]

> What was the remaining range for those replacements?

Who cares? Spending $15K on battery on a used car is a hard "No!", unless the car is under $10K.

I'm thinking of buying another car next year. $15K is my budget for an ICE car - and only if it has all the bells and whistles. Otherwise it's $12K. Spending another $15K on top of that is ridiculous.

> Is that high? I have no idea. How many ICE powertrains got replaced at the same time and what did it cost?

I'd love to know. All I have are anecdotes.

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mulmen a day ago | parent [-]

> Who cares?

Well I do because I only need to drive at most 75 miles a day and even a car with 30 miles of range would satisfy my commute requirements.

> Spending $15K on battery on a used car is a hard "No!", unless the car is under $10K.

Can you get a better car for $25,000.00? Would you spend $15,000.00 on a $1000.00 car?

	▲	BeetleB 15 hours ago \| parent [-]
		>>> What was the remaining range for those replacements? >> Who cares? Spending $15K on battery on a used car is a hard "No!", unless the car is under $10K. > Well I do because I only need to drive at most 75 miles a day and even a car with 30 miles of range would satisfy my commute requirements. The point is that when comparing dollar for dollar, I can likely get a used ICE for the same price that will work out better for me. If I already had an ICE car and was looking for a second car just for daily commutes, the EV may make sense. But the hassle of having to get a rental for longer trips - I don't know if it's worth it. Also have to consider resale value - will people buy the (already used) EV from me if the battery has significantly reduced range? (BTW, in my social circle, I don't know anyone who's bought a used EV - they all buy new ones out of fear) > Can you get a better car for $25,000.00? I have a list of things I want and need from a car. I can find plenty ICE for $15K that matches my requirements. $25K is the max I'll go for an EV, figuring that I may save $10K over about 8-10 years in gas based on the calculators I've used. I can't find even one EV that matches my requirements for $25K. Each one has some problem - too little room or some other annoying problem (e.g. Ioniq 5 not having rear wipers). I can get great ICE cars for $15K. I cannot get a single used great EV for $25K.