| ▲ | China's 200M gig workers are a warning for the world(economist.com) |
| 73 points by miohtama 9 hours ago | 136 comments |
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| ▲ | Igrom 9 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| https://archive.ph/Jxlp3 |
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| ▲ | Herring 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| China has course-corrected many times before. They’ll do it again. I think the US should be more worried. Their govt makes it incredibly hard to course-correct (filibuster, gerrymandering, fptp, electoral college, supreme court etc) https://data.worldhappiness.report/chart Trends look better for China. Life expectancy already caught up. |
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| ▲ | nextworddev 2 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | Is this a LLM posting? | |
| ▲ | nradov 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The "official" data reported by China can't be attempted to be believed. Most of it is highly manipulated. Attempts at independent verification are punished, or blocked by making the raw data a state secret. That's not to say that data reported by other countries is completely accurate or free of political manipulation. But there's a enormous difference between China and democratic countries. | | |
| ▲ | monero-xmr 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | There is a bizarre reverence and worship for China I have observed with some Americans. Yes, you can build things faster and have smooth 5% YoY growth if you don’t have property rights and manipulate the statistics | | |
| ▲ | jordanb 30 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | I once heard someone say "China is the only country in the world who knows on Jan 1st what their GDP for the year is going to be." | |
| ▲ | bamboozled 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Seems to be a lot of bizarre worship in the USA these days. | |
| ▲ | more_corn 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I don’t think I have any illusions. I’d never want to live under Chinese censorship, lack of civil rights, the weird errors caused by centralized economic control.
But I can also acknowledge some of the things they do well. Having a nuanced view of a complex topic is probably essential for proper understanding. | | |
| ▲ | ponector an hour ago | parent [-] | | How about this: I’d never want to live under Trump's censorship, lack of civil rights, the weird errors caused by centralized economic control |
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| ▲ | cpursley 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | 90% of Chinese own their own properties vs 65% of Americans, so there's that. Regarding property rights, I'm not sure how it works there but we've all seen the malls and highways that diverted around homes where owners were unwilling to sell out. Also, they actually have functional public infrastructure and have brought something like 800 million out of abject poverty. Are ahead of us in several spaces and about to pass us or at least equal us in others. Obviously I'm not arguing for that type of top down authoritarian system, but this is the objective reality. What's bizarre actually is all the denialism and copium over China - should we not be glad that they are doing better than they were 30 years ago and much more liberal than before? | | |
| ▲ | Scoundreller 40 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | > 90% of Chinese own their own properties By "own" you mean 70 year leases with ??? renewal conditions? > Urban land use rights in Mainland China were typically granted for fixed terms: 70 years for residential, 50 years for office or industrial, and 40 years for commercial purposes. As these terms approach expiration, the question of renewal becomes paramount. The legal framework, primarily the Property Law and the Urban Real Estate Administration Law, provides a general outline but leaves specific implementation to local governments. > Mainland China’s Property Law (Article 149) and The Civil Code of Mainland China (Article 359) guarantee automatic residential land use right renewals but provides no specific arrangement in respect of non-residential terms. Currently, without detailed implementation guidelines, local governments devise varied approaches, skewing valuations and unsettling investors. This uncertainty hinders market efficiency. https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/greater-china/insights/b... But yeah, you could argue that you have to pay property taxes in USA and if you don't, you'll eventually lose your land | |
| ▲ | monero-xmr 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Give the average person in china the opportunity to move to America, and vice versa, there is no comparison. China has done some things right but to pretend it is some model for America is absurd | | |
| ▲ | reilly3000 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I would absolutely take a chance to live in China, but I wouldn’t expect to be welcomed there. Their tech, disposable income, food costs, etc are so superior to what we have today in US. | |
| ▲ | cpursley an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Yo, I literally pointed out that I’m not for this model. But thanks for the comment? | |
| ▲ | what-the-grump 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The average person in America is living paycheck to paycheck and has negative equity. 20 years ago you couldn’t see in Shanghai. Trump pulled back the clean air act, it’s not hard to see a trend. It’s also not hard to buy a ticket and see it yourself. | | |
| ▲ | cpursley an hour ago | parent [-] | | Great point, I almost wrote that they’ve cleaned up pollution (of all types) by a lot and also are accomplish some impressive feats by regreening and pushing back desertification. Amazing things can happen when you get your peoples basic needs met (ie, they can focus on higher level stuff). |
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| ▲ | yibg 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | This is a pretty outdated view of things too. Majority of chinese students return to china after getting their degree in the US. |
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| ▲ | hearsathought 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > There is a bizarre reverence and worship for China I have observed with some Americans. No. There isn't. It's just that we've gotten sick of the bullshit and lies from the anti-china propagandists like you. > Yes, you can build things faster and have smooth 5% YoY growth if you don’t have property rights and manipulate the statistics If they can build things faster, what need is there to manipulate the statistics? If the chinese don't have property rights, then how come they own so much property? When you and your kind spout such nonsense over and over again, people tend to get sick of it. | | |
| ▲ | Our_Benefactors 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > If they can build things faster, what need is there to manipulate the statistics? A lot to unpack here. You completely blipped over the part about “no property rights” which is pretty clear when you look at, for example, how their rail construction projects go. Choochoo, rail is coming through, time to move this village, no eminent domain payments necessary. > If the chinese don't have property rights, then how come they own so much property? If ownership of a half-finished concrete shell by a bankrupt construction firm on the 33rd floor is counted as “owning property”, then the statistics will look pretty good. | | |
| ▲ | hearsathought 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | > You completely blipped over the part about “no property rights” which is pretty clear when you look at, for example, how their rail construction projects go. Choochoo, rail is coming through, time to move this village Better than exterminating the natives to build railroads? Using your logic we don't have property rights in the US either. > no eminent domain payments necessary. Doesn't explain nail houses though. https://www.cnn.com/2015/05/19/asia/gallery/china-nail-house... > If ownership of a half-finished concrete shell by a bankrupt construction firm on the 33rd floor is counted as “owning property”, then the statistics will look pretty good. Yes. 1.4 billion people live in half-finished concrete shells. Come up with something better. You guys are getting boring repeating the same nonsense over and over again. |
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| ▲ | tuatoru 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | "China" isn't "China". Like everywhere else, there's a maze of conflictiong incentives. The CCP measures regional governments on their stats. Gaming there. Regional governments measure administrative areas, ditto. More gaming. No stats can be trusted in a society that does not prize allegiance to the truth above all else. | | |
| ▲ | theturtletalks 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Let’s say it how it is, this is the cost of freedom. Yes, China can build more quickly and has advanced more technologically, but it came at the cost of freedom. The degree of freedom is not something I’m fit to argue. Now, there are those they believe the difference in freedom is worth that technological advancement. I’m not so sure. COVID was a great example of this. China was able to slow the virus spreading faster than the US since they were literally locking people into their homes. In the US, this didn’t happen because of the rights we have. | |
| ▲ | hearsathought 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > No stats can be trusted in a society that does not prize allegiance to the truth above all else. What society, government or political entity prizes allegiance to truth above all else? Truly you win the prize of the dumbest anti-china comment. |
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| ▲ | 2muchcoffeeman 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | You’re simply mistaking the acknowledgment of their successes as reverence. I don’t have to agree with someone or something to give them credit. | | |
| ▲ | monero-xmr 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | The very reason that China can bulldoze thousands of homes for a new highway or train, are the very things that would make an American scream “fascism” at an authoritarian government | | |
| ▲ | kg 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Bulldozing homes to make room for a highway or train is an American tradition, even if we do it less often now. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Moses#Criticism_and_The... > Moses's critics charge that he preferred automobiles over people. They point out that he displaced hundreds of thousands of residents in New York City and destroyed traditional neighborhoods by building multiple expressways through them. The projects contributed to the ruin of the South Bronx and the amusement parks of Coney Island, caused the Brooklyn Dodgers and the New York Giants Major League Baseball teams to relocate to Los Angeles and San Francisco respectively, and precipitated the decline of public transport from disinvestment and neglect. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eminent_domain_in_the_United_S... | | |
| ▲ | throwaway173738 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | There used to be an entire road and tenement houses in Seattle where I5 is now. They’ve also taken all or part of many properties abutting the new rail project. |
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| ▲ | bdangubic 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | there isn’t, especially not in america (though you said democratic… :) ) | |
| ▲ | hearsathought 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > The "official" data reported by China can't be attempted to be believed. Most of it is highly manipulated. Attempts at independent verification are punished, or blocked by making the raw data a state secret. If that's the case, then you should be able to provide tons of evidence. It's difficult to "hide" or "manipulate" data in a country the size of china that is tied to the global trading system. > But there's a enormous difference between China and democratic countries. "Democratic countries". Like russia? Or venezuela? Oh, let me guess, democratic countries you don't like are not "democratic countries". Right. You are just repeating the standard anti-china propaganda. It's the same of nonsense over and over again. "None of china's data can be trusted. They are lying and they are about to collapse". Followed by, "Oh my god china is an existential threat. They are going to overtake us. Deep seek, rare earth minerals blah blah blah". Make up your mind. | | |
| ▲ | nradov 21 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | I'm old enough to remember when supposedly Japan was going to overtake us. Their economy was growing rapidly under MITI control while ours was stagnating. At the peak in 1991 the nominal value of real estate in Japan was higher than all of North America. Then the bubble popped in 1992 and Japan has been struggling ever since. The same thing will inevitably happen to China although it may take a while. Central planning is great at creating the illusion of growth but when you probe deeper you find the actual fair market value generated is much less. | | |
| ▲ | rzerowan 2 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Theres the little matter of the US imposed Plaza Accords that have been skipped in the timeline there , which are widely acknowledged to have precipitated Japan's lost decades. |
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| ▲ | spwa4 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Proof? Okay: https://merics.org/en/report/increasing-challenge-obtaining-... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-16/china-is-... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-16/china-is-... https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2025/05/censored-statistics-de... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S10439... https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/china-is-hiding-mo... https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/09/05/the-chinese-au... https://www.socsci.uci.edu/newsevents/news/2024/2024-07-17-w... https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/17/health/covid-origins-who.... Standard communist playbook: as soon as something is embarrassing (like the youth unemployment rate in China), declare it a state secret. The fact that it's getting hard to find something they're not hiding is not a good sign. The list of things they're hiding is getting pretty damn long: internal trade statistics, housing sales, population numbers (first in the "ghost cities", then border regions, now all of China), disease statistics (they suddenly classified COVID statistics, now everything), unemployment rate (started with unemployed miners, then youth, now everything), immigration/emigration policies, economic growth, how they're treating various ethnic groups (Nepalese, Uyghurs, ...) A big question a lot of people are starting to ask: is the data the government itself is operating on still accurate? Because, of course, in Soviet Russia and other communist states it wasn't. Such states made very large, often disastrous, decisions based on fictitious data, so odds seem good the same is unfolding in China. | | |
| ▲ | hearsathought 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | > Proof? Okay: It never fails. I knew someone would post a wall of links to compensate for the lack of actual evidence. And of course all these links are just repeating the same talking point. > Standard communist playbook: as soon as something is embarrassing (like the youth unemployment rate in China), declare it a state secret. T But I thought these "damn commie"s manipulate the data? I thought we couldn't trust the data they put out anyways? Nevermind why these commies would put out data to embarrass themselves? Why are you so upset about losing access to manipulate data? Oh, you mean the data that the "commies" put out are accurate? And you are upset they are no longer making accurate and unmanipulated data from you? > The list of things they're hiding is getting pretty damn long: internal trade statistics, housing sales, population numbers (first in the "ghost cities", then border regions, now all of China), What difference does it make? They are all untrustworhty "manipulated" data? This is the problem with you anti-china propagandists. One says the "commie stats" are manipulated and worthless? The other says "it isn't manipulated but these commies are hiding it". > Because, of course, in Soviet Russia and other communist states it wasn't. Which was readily apparent by anyone who visited the soviet states in the 70s/80s. Millions of people actually visit china every year. And many post videos of it on tiktok, youtube, etc. Even of uyghers. If china was on the path to a soviet style collapse, you'd see it in the cities, towns, etc. > A big question a lot of people are starting to ask: is the data the government itself is operating on still accurate? Is it a question? I thought it was all manipulated and unreliable data. > so odds seem good the same is unfolding in China. Then why are you crying about them hiding the bad data? You just regurgitated the same nonsense anti-china propaganda that's we've been seeing for 10+ years. By the way, what happened with the ugyhur genocide? Still going on? And what happened to the promised china collapse? We've been waiting for many years now. |
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| ▲ | sharikous 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > If that's the case, then you should be able to provide tons of evidence. It's difficult to "hide" or "manipulate" data in a country the size of china that is tied to the global trading system. not very tied, actually, precisely because of heavy government interventions > "Democratic countries". Like russia? Or venezuela? Oh, let me guess, democratic countries you don't like are not "democratic countries". Right. I think that we can agree that democratic countries are countries where there is a choice and you see changes of government caused by free elections. That's not the case for Russia or Venezuela but it is (still) the case for most of the Western world > You are just repeating the standard anti-china propaganda. It's the same of nonsense over and over again.
> "None of china's data can be trusted. They are lying and they are about to collapse". Followed by, "Oh my god china is an existential threat. They are going to overtake us. Deep seek, rare earth minerals blah blah blah".
> Make up your mind. Who said that? Only you |
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| ▲ | inglor_cz 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I would argue that with the exception of the American Civil War, internal course corrections of the US during the last 250 years were a lot less violent than those of China. The Taiping Rebellion, the White Lotus Rebellion, the Boxer Rebellion, the Great Leap Forward, the Cultural Revolution - lots of deaths and chaos involved. (I omitted the civil war between CCP and the Kuomintag, which I consider roughly equivalent to the ACW.) | | |
| ▲ | bryanlarsen 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | The past is the past. Sometimes it is a good predictor of the future, other times people learn the lessons of mistakes, making the past anti-correlated. | | |
| ▲ | nradov 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | The history of China going back millennia is chock full of violent revolutions and civil wars. They don't seem to learn anything from mistakes. I fully expect another one in our lifetimes. |
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| ▲ | grafmax 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Almost as if countries were closed systems and imperialism never existed. As if the US has not acted a neo-imperialist superpower post-WW2. Surely a country’s positionality in the global system contributes to how much violence occurs within their borders? | | |
| ▲ | inglor_cz 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | "Surely a country’s positionality in the global system contributes to how much violence occurs within their borders?" Surely, but how much? 1 per cent or 40 per cent? We don't know. As you say, nothing is a closed system. For example, by 1949, China imported Marxist-Leninist-Stalinist school of thought, a totally culturally alien system constructed by (mostly long dead) Europeans, which was the root cause of the horrors of the Maoist era - none of which were imposed by external empires by force. For all its faults, the US never forced the Chinese to exterminate the sparrows or attempt to build a steel mill in every village, resulting in a massive economic collapse and death toll. | | |
| ▲ | grafmax 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | China had many famines before that during the century of humiliation. Maoism was itself a reaction to the dire social conditions of the time. This doesn’t absolve Maoism of its policies which led to millions dying. (And yet we shouldn’t absolve the global capitalist system either which leads to millions of preventable deaths each year.) Colonialist exploitation has been major historic driver over this timeframe (shifting to neo-colonialism in the world system post WW2). Admittedly it hasn’t been the only one. But our understanding of world history loses nuance if we gloss over colonialism and neo-colonialism over this period and treat historic events as due to the supposedly essential traits of this or that nation. | | |
| ▲ | inglor_cz 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | It seems that famines in China were commonplace even pre-19th century: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_famines_in_China Political system may be one of the reasons (feudalism doesn't have a great record in preventing famines either), but the most salient explanation might be that a pre-modern economy with high density of population is inherently prone to famines - a bad drought will easily topple the precarious balance between demand and supply towards lack of food, and without a railway network it is nearly impossible to move food easily among places that don't have good ports. |
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| ▲ | christkv 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Compared to Europe the US has turbo speed of self-correction. EU is not doing well and it will do worse over the next decade and there seems to be no political will to put the economy back on course. Just add more regulations, costs and spending and hope for the best seems the current mantra. Right now corporate bonds are sold at lower rates and have better credit than the public bonds for a country like France. Combination of no faith in political stability and no faith in the ability to get spending under control. I think a lot of EU countries are going to just keep stumbling into a financial crisis that will force cuts in pensions and wealth-fare at a scale not seen post ww2. The pyramid scheme is coming due. | | |
| ▲ | ben_w 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Unclear why Europe's capabilities are a relevant come-back to a comparison between the US and China. May be correct, the EU as an organisation isn't very powerful compared to member states, may be false, EU member states are much more diverse than American states. | | |
| ▲ | christkv 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | because it's about the ability to course-correct and I mentioned that compared to the EU it's operating at turbo-speed. | | |
| ▲ | ben_w 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | > because … and I mentioned An action is not a justification for itself | | |
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| ▲ | mallowdram 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The US doesn't course-correct, it barrels through when the outcome is appalling (1933) and when the leadership takes advantage of a break in the pattern (1964/1981). The immobility of the US political system indicates it is ready to be broken in half, the reality of corporatocracy is that it is an endgame to itself in arbitrariness. Whereas all China has to do is exert its state economy leverage once the West's corporations/bonds evaporate. The Chinese see resonance, interdependence, relationships. It's baked into their language. We see attributes, objects, units, individuals. We imposed these onto their businesses for the last 30 years, but don't think for a second we've dominated their culture. They are now far more able to use their language's inherent forms as guides to the economy. | | |
| ▲ | nradov 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | That's a bizarre non sequitur. Language has nothing to do with economics. | |
| ▲ | christkv 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | You are to captured by your ideology. It does not really matter what you personally think about. The thing is that the EU has completely failed as a union to provide the economic growth we need and has no plan on how to address this. We are completely export dependent (about 50% of GDP, meaning any world economic crisis will cause massive unemployment and fiscal crisis) and our internal market has withered and the purchasing power is plummeting. China is going to do what China does but it's economy is in tatters something you would probably know if you actually looked at what is happening with their economy. Combine that with the same demographic crisis as EU and you have another country that might have already hit it's economical peak. The leadership is showing no ability to create an internal market and is busy stomping out any dissent internally as economical reality sets in and people loose jobs and their future. Unless their turn their economy around creating an internal market any international economic crisis will collapse their export oriented economy. | | |
| ▲ | oezi 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | I don't know why you think everything is so bleak. Yes, Europe is inter-connected to the world. We export a lot and we import a lot. Unemployment in Europe has been not been terrible for a long time. Of course there is room for improvement and there are political challenges, for instance to enact the pension reforms needed for the demographic changes but Europe has achieved also a lot we can be proud of. Without Europe and without the single market, we would be facing the same issues Britain is facing: Being too small, unable to regulate anything on their own, dependent on foreign trade partners, etc. |
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| ▲ | legacynl 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Lol, advocating for an autocratic system because they can pivot fast. If a less fortunate Chinese citizen would be allowed to speak their mind I'm pretty sure they would have a way less favourable opinion, even if the CCP would have 'great stats' in the international press (which at least partly is based on data they provide). | | |
| ▲ | John23832 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Civil liberties isn't the point being made, it's whether you scan steer a huge ship. Which, to the credit of the original commenter, China has proven they can do. | | |
| ▲ | dwaltrip 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | Did they steer the ship well during covid? | | |
| ▲ | John23832 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | The gotcha's don't work on me, sorry. They've steered a massive ship (and its crew) well enough to corner the manufacturing market for everything, globally, in less than 30 years. They've steered that same ship well enough to create mirror (and sometimes superior) industries in pretty much everything else. They also created global soft power in the process. If they need to retool/manage gig work, the command and control economy in China has a much better chance at figuring it out than waiting for the "hand of the market" in US. | | |
| ▲ | throwaway173738 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | In many ways the US is just returning to the approach to governance from the time of Upton Sinclair. |
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| ▲ | ben_w 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Better than most, if these stats are to be believed: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/covid?Metric=Excess+mor... | |
| ▲ | yibg 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Hard to get reliable numbers, but if you go by reported deaths then yes better than the US. | |
| ▲ | vkou 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | They steered it well enough. The US, for the record, also steered it's economy well enough during Covid. But that was a 2016 Trump administration, which still had adults in the room, and a 2020 Biden one. Post 2024-MAGA isn't able to steer a bicycle. |
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| ▲ | ben_w 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The value of free speech, democracy, capitalism, *is* making pivoting faster. The first world didn't win the cold war despite doing these things, but because those things actually helped us (all of us, not just the US) course-correct in ways the USSR didn't. If China has a different way to be flexible, or if the USA looses its flexibility, the USA will fail to keep up with China in the same way and for the same reason the USSR couldn't keep up with the USA. |
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| ▲ | Der_Einzige 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Americans will beat out China again in 20 years due to GLP-1 drugs fixing the colossal nerfing to our public health that widespread obesity cause. Of course, China has another chance to beat us out when that happens if they do something about how common smoking is there! | | |
| ▲ | dragonelite 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | The US problem is they are going from a global brutal empire to a shrinking empire. But the debt and lifestyle of the US is still that of a global empire. That is what has broken many past empires and will break the US empire. | |
| ▲ | YinglingHeavy 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | [flagged] | | |
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| ▲ | charlie0 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| The article came across as alarmist while completely failing to provide the bigger picture of whether this is actually a bad thing or not. We instantly assume it's bad because it would indeed be awful for us in the US to live like that. I'd be interested in knowing how these workers get by, is housing and other important things cheaper there? Flexible employment is not a bad thing, in fact, it's great. What would be bad here is not being able to afford basic necessities in a system like that and this article completely ignore that side of the equation. |
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| ▲ | Stevvo 38 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Housing is cheaper, and pretty much everything else is cheaper also. For example the meals these workers deliver are very affordable.
You will only pay more for imports. |
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| ▲ | thr0waway001 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Chinese leaders also: "gee, why aren't our people having more babies anymore?" |
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| ▲ | alephnerd 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Tl;dr - 1. Mass employment via light and low skilled manufacturing will not help provide mass prosperity in 2025. Automation is the name of the game (can confirm in Vietnamese and Indian high value manufacturing as well as Chinese) 2. Work to build a social safety net that complements gig work. An export driven economy is increasingly tenuous in the current climate. Expanding a domestic consumer market by ensuring prosperity reaches the bottom half is what will allow you to build a resilient economy. ---------- I've ranted about this for over a decade now. Concentrating only on export and industry development while ignoring the need to expand a domestic consumer market either by leveraging higher incomes (highly unlikely) OR a stronger social safety net is the solution to over-production in most cases. It's an increasingly mainstream view in Chinese economic academia as well, but the Xi admin remains petulantly opposed to what it derisively terms as "Welfarism" ("福利主义典范国家,中产塌陷、贫富分化、社会撕裂、民粹喧嚣,这不乏警示— 防止落入“福利主义”养懒汉陷阱"*) [0]. Li Keqiang was a major proponent of expanding the social safety net due to his early experiences in childhood, but he sadly passed away. Countries like Vietnam are following a similar approach, and it is not going to end well. [0] - http://theory.people.com.cn/n1/2021/1116/c40531-32283350.htm... * - "In a welfare state, the middle class is collapsing, the rich and the poor are polarized, society is torn apart, and populism is clamoring. This is a warning to avoid falling into the trap of "welfarism" that breeds laziness." |
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| ▲ | oezi 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | As Germany and Japan can attest, export-led growth works great until it doesn't, because you are stuck to suppress wages across the economy to maintain your export edge. You need to also build the internal market and carefully manage the housing market as the central instrument for wealth accumulation of your citizens. I think the US is unique to realize that they can achieve more by being a consumer spending economy and using run-away housing prices to inflate their citizens wealth (using immigration to increase demand). |
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| ▲ | yocoda 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > And though their algorithms can be cruel taskmasters, pushing drivers to drive recklessly fast, they are an improvement on gangmasters who used to match workers and employers. > The final lesson, therefore, is that governments should rethink the social contract to make gig work as beneficial as possible Is this author trolling or am I dumb? |
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| ▲ | tdeck 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | The sentiment reminds me of this old 19th century labor movement song "The Dollar Alarm Clock" (although in that song, they were making fun of it) What a blessing it was when the thing was invented;
It beats the slave-driver who came with a stick;
It rests on the shelf in the shack that I rented;
It never gets hungry; it never gets sick.
https://politicalfolkmusic.org/blog/john-healy/dollar-alarm-... | |
| ▲ | esafak 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | You're reading The Economist. | |
| ▲ | atonse 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I’ve not driven Uber Eats but a friend of mine had. The app doesn’t push you. YOU push yourself if you have a certain personality and want to maximize earnings. | | |
| ▲ | maeln 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Back in the day, and it is still true to this day in many places in the world, one way to keep worker "motivated" was to have an abysmal low wage, with barely possible targets to reach to unlock a bonus that would make it possible to eat at the end of the month. The gig economy is just an extension of this, but instead of low wage, you now have no wage. From a capitalist point of view, it is very efficient for low-skill job. Almost anyone can join, increasing the supply of worker and therefor lowering the amount you have to pay them, until the point where you just can't make a living out of the gig. The perfect "balance point". It also get rid of the unproductive (old, handicapped, injured, or just people who have a family to take care of) worker rapidly and with no fuss (no costly firing procedure), and only keep the ones who can make the required grind to be able to live. It is truly the end goal of capitalism, finally turning human into just another resource to be used and discarded when it has been used. | |
| ▲ | fifteen1506 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | You are both the exploited and the exploiter. |
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| ▲ | Ericson2314 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Gig work is actually totally fine with an adequate welfare state and reduced work week. Too bad China has neither of those things! |
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| ▲ | skrebbel 9 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I know little about China, but every so often I meet someone who's rather fond of it (usually a passionate hardcore leftie¹), and says stuff like "in China nobody is unemployed, in China nobody is homeless" because apparently somehow the state provides (bad, but existing) work and housing for everyone. This seems to directly oppose your comment that China has no welfare state. Who is right? ¹) for context, here in NL "America good China bad" is a bit less clear-cut than in the US, where I assume most people read this comment from. That said at least the "China bad" part is still the majority opinion by far. | | |
| ▲ | seanmcdirmid 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I’m a moderate American who lived in China for 9 years. China is a mixed bag, they do some things right (their transit build out, their investments in green energy/tech, healthcare, employment) and some things bad (real estate bubble that makes 1980s Japan blush, environment was in tatters until recently, autocratic, youth job opportunities kind of suck right now, 996, welfare doesn’t really exist). As far as the simplistic “X good Y bad”, those are never right anyways. | |
| ▲ | legacynl 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I consider myself on the left, and I don't think any of those things. Not everybody on the right or left think all alike. YOu can't just assume somebody who is right or left thinks exactly the same as those few interactions you personally had with people from a certain group. To be clear China certainly has homeless people. There actually is some form of welfare state, but often it is not sufficient, especially if you're not party related, and you can only get it in your assigned city/home town. If it's not enough to pay for housing and there aren't any jobs available in your region you're shit out of luck. | | |
| ▲ | skrebbel 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | > I consider myself on the left, and I don't think any of those things. Not everybody on the right or left think all alike. You can't just assume somebody who is right or left thinks exactly the same as those few interactions you personally had with people from a certain group. I'm not sure what you're on about. I was referring to specific unnamed people. I never suggested that their opinion is representative of the left, just that some lefties somehow, to my surprise, seem to think that today's China is a dream state that we should strive to emulate. FWIW, I consider myself to be on the left as well, and I do not think that the China model is widely celebrated on the left (or anywhere in Dutch politics really). |
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| ▲ | Ericson2314 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | As a "softcare leftie", my understanding is that China does in fact have a weak welfare state. I think it's better for pensioners than working-age poor — typical gerontocracy. I think some healthcare stuff exists on paper but it sucks. | | |
| ▲ | Fade_Dance 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | They also have the hukou system, and migrant workers often do not have the same benefits as native residents. I think that much of the misunderstanding comes from the perception that China has a highly centralized authoritarian government which is all powerful within the state, which is true to some degree, but the regional governments are what effectively "run" most of the state, including things like infrastructure initiatives that most people would assume are state controlled. The big bold State planning also is in fact implemented in different ways by different provinces. Then people put that framework into a western context of states and national government, which isn't right either. There is a lot of power balancing and interplay between the provincial and national governments, and the binding force is the CCP itself which doesn't have a clear western parallel either. | | |
| ▲ | Ericson2314 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | Devolving social services to provinces is indeed very American! More than European. | | |
| ▲ | seanmcdirmid 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | You can move to a new state or city to look for services. If you become homeless anywhere in the USA, you are more likely to wind up in a west coast city eventually looking for fair weather and services. In contrast, in China you can’t just move from your poor village to Shanghai and expect help and to not be harassed by police. They at best will just put you on a bus back to your poor village. Even worse, you could have been born in Shanghai but are still considered an illegal immigrant because your parents didn’t have Shanghai hukou. You can be deported to a poor village that you’ve never been to before. | | |
| ▲ | Ericson2314 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yeah agreed. I just meant having the provinces operator the services is like here. Hukuo is not like here. (Though there is a funny internet joke that American NIMBYs want hukuo at home.) | | |
| ▲ | seanmcdirmid 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | Living in Seattle, I have to admit that I’ve thought of wanting hukou before. We will never solve our homeless problem if the more local resources we apply to it and the better we do, the worse the problem gets (because who doesn’t want to show up to get that free housing). | | |
| ▲ | Ericson2314 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | This is an advantage of pursuing cheap market rate over insatiable section 8 and LIHTC subsidies, yes. |
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| ▲ | skrebbel 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Appreciate your response, thanks for the clarity. I think whoever downvoted me thought I was being insincere but I really wasn't - it's not a weird idea to expect a country that calls itself communist to have something resembling a welfare state! | | |
| ▲ | Ericson2314 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | A lot of people like to say "China is actually a lot like America" with a big smirk - plenty conservatism - weak welfare state - big - diverse-ish, but with single dominant ethnic group - aging gerontocracy (but that's everywhere) - real estate fetish | | |
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| ▲ | markus_zhang 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | China has very little to do with left except in the names maybe. | |
| ▲ | prewett 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The Chinese State hasn't provided jobs and housing for decades. Their own statistics shows youth unemployment at 19% (August 2025). The struggles of migrants in the cities is well-known. I personally witnessed homeless people in Beijing. Your leftish interlocutors haven't updated their information since Mao Zedong died; Deng Xiaoping starting undoing Communism in 1979 [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor_relations_in_China | |
| ▲ | inglor_cz 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | During the rule of the Communist party in Czechoslovakia, not working was a crime, so "nobody is unemployed, nobody is homeless" was trivially ensured by chucking such people into prison. OTOH you had a lot of state-sponsored jobs where you just had to show up, but not necessarily work. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_parasitism_(offense) The Czech offence was called "Příživnictví", which is just "Parasitism". https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/P%C5%99%C3%AD%C5%BEivnictv%C3%... |
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| ▲ | avdelazeri 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | If someone is working but still needs welfare then the state is just subsiding company payrolls by indirect means. Strongly disagree that gig work is fine as long as there is welfare. | | |
| ▲ | rendang 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | If a given person's labor is of poor enough quality such that its value is not enough to provide whatever is considered a reasonable quality of life in a given circumstance, adding a UBI or other welfare payment is not just subsidizing employers |
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| ▲ | JKCalhoun 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Thinking lately how it mirrors "piece work" that, I think, countries like Japan used to have (still have?). | | | |
| ▲ | aeonfox 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Doesn't gig work sidestep the mandated work week and other hard won employer obligations like holiday pay, health insurance, workers' safety, retirement benefits, etc? Or is your point that with adequate welfare there would be no gig workers? | |
| ▲ | mytailorisrich 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | If you are self-employed and paid by the job/hour "reduced work week" is not really viable. This applies in Europe, too. | | |
| ▲ | Ericson2314 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | Where in an equilibrium where gig wages are too low, because the precarity means the gig worker is desperate. With enough welfare state, the gig worker wouldn't be so desperate, and gig rates would go up. Of course they would push some employers back to permenant employment, but this is fine. It would be like spot market vs longer term deals for everything else. I'm convinced the length of the workweek is totally exogenous. I don't think there is a feedback mechanism within capitalism to adjust it. This is actually a bummer. | | |
| ▲ | mytailorisrich 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | Jobs like food delivery for Deliveroo, etc. are very low productivity and consumers are not willing to pay a lot for delivery. This type of jobs can only be paid at the low end. Rates don't go up, they can't. What's happening s is that those jobs and services disappear. That's good if that leads to higher productivity, better paid jobs, but not if that leads to unemployment. This has an impact on the length of the workweek, too. But in any case all self-employed must decide whether they can afford to cut their hours or if they can commercially. The "welfare state" must be paid for somehow, too. | | |
| ▲ | Ericson2314 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | If it's too low productivity then it shouldn't exist. This is, mathematically speaking, orthogonal to gig vs non-gig. | | |
| ▲ | mytailorisrich 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | This sounds like a value judgment or authoritarian edict. Luckily in a free society this is not for anyone to decide. |
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| ▲ | John23832 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | You had me at the first sentence. My fingers were itching to comment. | |
| ▲ | ThomPete 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | What revenue is that welfare state based on? | | |
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| ▲ | HPsquared 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| They really are going all-in on the capitalism over there. |
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| ▲ | inglor_cz 9 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | It is a society where power is strictly organized into a clear pyramid. This model predates capitalism by a lot. If anything, true capitalism is more chaotic and probably churns the layers of the society more. This is more akin to a feudalism with capitalist characteristics, with the Party instead of the bluebloods. | | |
| ▲ | markus_zhang 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | Actually the idea is to assimilate as many elites as possible into the party and then allow certain infighting. The rest of the people are simply Human Resources. Ironically, not too different from the US. |
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| ▲ | billy99k 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | China has ownership in all major companies and influences all major decisions. This isn't really capitalism. In addition to this, the economy is built on stolen intellectual property. This can only go so far. | | |
| ▲ | conception 9 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | This assumes that the Chinese have not been skilling up during that time of stolen IP. They have been. | |
| ▲ | bryanlarsen 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | IP is only copied, not stolen. It goes both ways -- Tesla learned how to efficiently build and operate their factories from the Chinese. And as Elon always says, manufacturing is 1000x as hard as design and prototyping. | | |
| ▲ | billy99k 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Using this definition, identities are only copied, and not stolen. Learning from the Chinese is entirely different than using operatives to take the corporate secrets from lets say the biggest steel company in the world, and then driving them out of business within a few years. If this is the world you want to live in, fine. Just don't complain when large corporations copy your work one day with no legal oprecourse. | |
| ▲ | lnsru 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Tesla bought a company called Grohmann Automation in 2017, factory automation company. I am not sure what Tesla learned from Chinese… | | |
| ▲ | bryanlarsen 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Tesla's first purpose built car factory was built in China using mostly local expertise. Their Berlin factory is basically a copy of their Chinese factory. Grohmann Automation was to super automate their factories, which is why the Model 3 roll out was such a disaster and which they abandoned in favour of conventional car manufacturing techniques. |
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| ▲ | delusional 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > In addition to this, the economy is built on stolen intellectual property. This can only go so far. I think it's at least a little interesting that "Intellectual property", like property in general, isn't a natural phenomenon. The very concept of property is a social construct we enforce on each other, supposedly for our shared benefit. This also means its existence has to live within the governmental system, and therefore be subject to sovereignty claims. "Intellectual Property" can therefore only be said to be "stolen" within a nation, by that nations own laws, or between nations following bilateral sovereign nation agreements. What I'm basically saying is that I'm not sure China has agreed to uphold American style "Intellectual Property", and as such, I'm not sure you can actually claim them to have "stolen" any "Intellectual Property". | |
| ▲ | femiagbabiaka 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I struggle to distinguish between what you’ve described as not really capitalism and the currently existing state of the U.S. | |
| ▲ | Der_Einzige 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | All intellectual property is stolen because all ideas are related. Similar principal to "All wars are civil wars because all men are brothers" - (That quote is from a french archbishop, not a communist) A "bleeding heart" world that took such statements seriously would be infinitely better than what we have today. But we can't have that because book-burners, luddites and related ilk hate the fact that "information wants to be free" |
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| ▲ | jmyeet 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Gig work is a warning sign but I honestly think China is far better equipped to deal with this than the West. In the West, gig work is a symptom that people don't have a livable wage. They either have a day job and have to do gig work to survive. Or they can't find stable work so gig work is the best they can get. And there is an adversarial relationship with the likes of Uber who want to increase profits by stealing money from the drivers, basically. Literally no government in the West is doing anything to tackle inequality. At the heart of that problem is housing unaffordability. High housing prices do nothing more than steal from the next generation and bring us closer to having a divide between landed and unlanded people. China is a command economy. There are issues with housing in China but they're far less severe. Hoarding of property basically doesn't happen. China considers housing to be a public right, which it is. Likewise, China doesn't allow a private company to operate like Uber at just rent-seek from the economy. China has thus far avoided creating a social safety net, particularly with retirement, forcing people to save for that. That's in direct opposition to create a consumption economy so they rely on exports. And exports are at risk as inequality in the West is a threat to demand and China just can't create new markets fast enough. The real warning here is that rising inequality is a massive, unaddressed, global problem at the same time as we will likely see the first trillionaire in our lifetimes. War and revolution are the ultimate forms of wealth redistribution and blaming random marginalized groups for declining material conditions will only get you so far before the guillotines come out. |
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| ▲ | CorrectHorseBat 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | >China is a command economy. There are issues with housing in China but they're far less severe. Hoarding of property basically doesn't happen. China considers housing to be a public right, which it is. How do you come to that conclusion? As far as I understand it it's the complete opposite, housing is basically the only way the Chinese can invest. Hoarding is rampant, those who got in early have several properties, the rest nothing. | | |
| ▲ | jmyeet 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | Because China has a dual housing system to ensure availability of affordable housing, something almost nonexistent in the West (other than Vienna). Yes people invest in housing. That's not the point. The point is China has a policy goal of making sure people have access to housing, something again almost nonexistent in the West. | | |
| ▲ | CorrectHorseBat 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | All of the West has social housing subsidised by the government. A quick Google tells me most of Western Europe has a much higher percentage of people living in social housing than China. |
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| ▲ | seanmcdirmid 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > Hoarding of property basically doesn't happen This is very untrue. A lot of richer Chinese owners a bunch of apartments that they are holding for speculation, maybe they rent it out (and often not), but it’s still very much hoarding. You got a lot of sweetheart deals that happened 20+ years ago where many connected Chinese were able to acquire apartments, villas, and so on as opportunities. Also, since the stock market is a hot mess, real estate acquisition was seen as the only real way to hold wealth in China. > China considers housing to be a public right, which it is You have more options for substandard housing in the cities (like sub basement room rentals aka “the ant tribe” in Beijing), but I also have no idea where you got this from. Rural hukou have the right to their land, but because they can’t sell it they can’t use it as collaterals in loans and such, making their life even harder. | |
| ▲ | rs186 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > There are issues with housing in China but they're far less severe. Hoarding of property basically doesn't happen. Even the most pro-China commentators don't make up such nonsense. | |
| ▲ | ta1243 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > At the heart of that problem is housing unaffordability. High housing prices do nothing more than steal from the next generation and bring us closer to having a divide between landed and unlanded people. I'd completely agree here. It's difficult to blame democratic governments for this though -- throughout the west nobody wants to build enough supply to deal with the problem. Your second part of landed vs unlanded. Implement a land value tax and distribute it as a universal basic income, and that solves that problem. Nobody wants that either, they think they like it and then come out "oh of course $favoured_group shouldn't pay it" | | |
| ▲ | jmyeet 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | You won't see a land value tax for the same reason there are constraints on housing supply: because existing homeowners are essentially single-issue voters when it comes to do with anything about housing. Aesthetically progressive people turn into raging fascists the second you propose building slightly higher density housing near a train station that they're nowhere near. In my ideal world I would: 1. Massively hike property taxes on non-income generating housing; 2. Make anyone owning housing subject to state, local and federal taxes on their worldwide income; 3. Get rid of preferential property tax rates and caps on property tax increases (eg Prop 13 in California). If you want to not force old people to sell immediately, defer their property taxes until death. This is exactly what Texas does; 4. Build for transit; and 5. Have the government be a massive supplier of social housing. |
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| ▲ | jacknews 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | This does not match my understanding of China.
Do you live in China? |
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| ▲ | subw00f 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| Reading some comments here made by highly educated people, given HN audience, about China, goes to show how much anti china and anti communist propaganda is deeply ingrained in the average American citizen. For people criticizing a whole civilization 3x as big and 10x as old for its lack of thought freedom, you sure seem very lobotomized to me. Just mind boggling ignorance/arrogance. |
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| ▲ | more_corn 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Do you disagree that China regularly censors speech? Retaliates against dissent? Locks masses up people up for being the wrong race or religion? Don’t get me wrong there are some amazing things about China. Freedom isn’t one of them. For someone criticizing commentators here let’s hear your credentials regarding knowledge of China. Or are you just a bot reflexively criticizing anyone who questions China? | | |
| ▲ | lurking_swe an hour ago | parent [-] | | I think their point is many americans are simply not capable of having an honest debate about the pros / cons of living in both countries. It’s OK to not like a country and give them credit where credit is due. They just say china has NO FREEDOM and CANT TRUST THE CCP, and shut down the conversation, as if the debate has been won? As if no other metric matters in a society. There is nuance - which 90% of the comments on this post have missed. Most importantly, most commenters are not entering the discussion with an open mind. In which case there’s not point in debating anything. It’s a waste of time. |
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