| ▲ | david-gpu 9 hours ago |
| While these events are statistically very rare, it is worth remembering that there have been two separate events in the past twenty years in Spain where high-speed trains have derailed leading to multiple fatalities [1][2]. In contrast, the Japanese Shinkansen has a spotless record since its introduction in the 1960s [3]. Not a single fatality due to a crash or derailment. And that's in a country with a much larger population and much higher passenger count per year. What do they do differently? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santiago_de_Compostela_derailm... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Adamuz_train_derailments [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shinkansen#Safety_record |
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| ▲ | pibaker 9 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| I am not sure what conclusion can we draw from, as you said, two very rare incidents over a long period of time. Reminds me of when Malaysian airlines crashed two planes in a short period of time. It was a good time to get cheap flights from Europe to south east Asia as long as you can withstand relatives thinking you are literally going to die in their third crash. |
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| ▲ | Freak_NL 9 hours ago | parent [-] | | Bit of an odd comparison, given that one of those flights (MH17) was shot down by a Russian Buk squad. That was not an issue attributable to the carrier in any way, and after the incident the likelihood of it happening again to Malaysia Airlines specifically was negligible. | | |
| ▲ | pibaker 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | It could be prevented by simply not flying over an active war zone, something airlines do all the times to prevent the exact same thing from happening. | | |
| ▲ | wafflemaker 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Or Girkin not ordering the civilian plane full of people to be shot down. It was a civilian plane at 10km altitude with a transponder on.
Really doesn't look like a jet on a radar. And up to that point Russia wasn't known to supply the separatists with an anti air system and the crew to run it. | | |
| ▲ | aunty_helen 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Doesn’t look like a F14 either but a US warship, rather than some guys in a field, still managed to pull that off and send 290 people to their graves. | | |
| ▲ | LorenPechtel 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | But it did look like an F-14. There really was an F-14, just on the ground at an Iranian airbase. And the Vincennes was under armed attack at the time--Iran let a civilian jetliner overfly their own attack. Plenty of blame for them, also. | | |
| ▲ | digitalPhonix an hour ago | parent [-] | | > But it did look like an F-14 It absolutely did not. The RCS of an F-14 v/s an Airbus A300 is an order of magnitude different (probably 2 or 3 orders). > There really was an F-14, just on the ground at an Iranian airbase There was, but that’s a red herring for the root cause. Each ship’s radar independently and correctly identified and tracked the Airbus separate from the Mode 2 targets, but when communicating the track information between ships, the tracks were mixed up. Source: The US Navy’s own account: https://www.history.navy.mil/content/history/nhhc/about-us/l... > There was a combat camera team aboard the Vincennes, and the footage depicts considerable confusion and even ill-discipline amongst the crew (cheering, shouting, football game atmosphere) that contributed to one of the most tragic events in U.S. Navy history |
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| ▲ | peyton 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | It would seem the air defense systems used could not reliably determine what you imply they should [1][2]. I’m not sure where you’re coming from, or why it would matter what one country was known or not known to do. [1]: https://www.technologyreview.com/2014/07/18/12951/how-can-a-... [2]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2014/07/18... | | |
| ▲ | lostlogin 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | > why it would matter what one country was known or not known to do. It absolutely matters. Flying over a war zone with known anti aircraft missiles is quite different to flying over a low level conflict that is using small arms only. |
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| ▲ | jojomodding 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Airlines started being more sensitive to this after the 2014 crash |
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| ▲ | tyre 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | And the other one was, as far as I remember, likely deliberate based on the pilot’s flight simulation data. | | |
| ▲ | kijin an hour ago | parent [-] | | That one doesn't reflect well on the airline IMO. There should be systems in place to help employees cope with mental health issues so that they don't end up hijacking their own plane. |
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| ▲ | wafflemaker 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| After reading Shogun, Cryptonomicon and watching plenty anime and documents about Japan (including Japanese rail system - still using the "pointing and naming" method I've learned from them) I would risk saying that Japanese do literally everything differently. |
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| ▲ | Arainach 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | A list consisting entirely of fictional works (one by an American who has never lived in Japan even) is not a good basis for claiming to understand a culture. Seriously, Cryptonomicon is a bizarre thing to put on this list. I like the it a lot, but none of that book takes place in Japan and the closest intersection is Japanese soldiers during World War II, with a brief participation of a single fictional Japanese company in the modern section of the book. | | |
| ▲ | tyre 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Well I have watched the show adaptation of Shogun, which features authentic Japanese language, and enjoy the occasional Omakase (in Brooklyn), so I’d say I’m pretty qualified to comment on Japanese rail over the past sixty years. | | |
| ▲ | andrecarini 20 minutes ago | parent [-] | | I've managed to draw the Japan flag in middle school one time. Add me to the list of reputable sources. |
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| ▲ | egl2020 an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Regardless of Cryptonomicon's utility in understanding Japan, the statement that "none of that book takes place in Japan" is not true. |
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| ▲ | komali2 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Japanese people are just people. They have a unique culture... Like literally every other identifiable culture on earth. I love Cryptonomicon but it engaged in that distinctly American brand of orientalism when it got into Japanese soldiers killing themselves and whatnot. | |
| ▲ | jacquesm 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | There are probably better sources than those two. What's next, citations from Enoch Root? |
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| ▲ | dinkblam 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Spain basically does not do the required maintenance: https://www.reuters.com/world/spains-deadly-rail-accidents-p... |
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| ▲ | david-gpu 9 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | From the linked article: > [The] stretch of track that was renovated last May and inspected on January 7. The track had been inspected very recently. Maybe the inspection standards are inadequate? The linked article also shows figures that are quite meaningless without context. > [The] vast majority [of Spain's high-speed rail budget] went to new infrastructure with only some 16% earmarked for maintenance, renewal and upgrades. That compares with between 34% to 39% spent by France, Germany and Italy, They simply can't compare those numbers as-is. Of course Spain will be spending less in maintenance as a percentage of the total budget if it's still mainly building new tracks. It's not a useful figure. | | |
| ▲ | imiric 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > The track had been inspected very recently. Maybe the inspection standards are inadequate? Spanish officials are very good at deflecting blame and playing politics. Nobody wants to be held accountable for a catastrophe. Also see the 2024 floods in Valencia; a partially preventable tragedy, followed by a whole lot of mud slinging, but zero accountability. So while inspection standards might be inadequate, I would take anything a senior official says with a pound of salt. | | |
| ▲ | db48x an hour ago | parent [-] | | But he is correct. If you have a large enough budget for new construction it can make any maintenance expenditure look tiny. The right figures to compare are normalized by length and age of track, not percentages of the total budget. |
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| ▲ | anon7000 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Yep, plus their network is pretty new anyways. Which generally needs less maintenance than older infrastructure. | | |
| ▲ | pixl97 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | Just because something is new, doesn't mean it's full of faults. |
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| ▲ | Findeton 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Specifically the fractured track was a soldered joint that joined a track from 1989 with a new one from a few weeks ago. | | |
| ▲ | jacquesm 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Soldered eh? No wonder then that it broke. | | |
| ▲ | exidy 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | English is unusual in that we have both Germanic "weld" and Latinate "solder" and they've acquired different meanings. Spanish (and other Romance languages) use the term "solder" (soldado) for both. | | |
| ▲ | jacquesm an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | Interesting. In dutch we use 'solderen' vs 'lassen', in German they use 'schweizen' and 'loten'. English has a third term like that as well called 'brazing', then there is silver solder (a high temperature version of soldering), in dutch we'd call that 'hardsolderen', whereas what the English call brazing we call oxy-acetyleen lassen (which is more of a process name by virtue of naming the ingredients). Soldadura autogeno and Soldadura en el arco (sp?) are what I think the modifiers used in Spanish to indicate brazing and (arc) welding. | |
| ▲ | duskwuff 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | As an aside: Chinese also uses the same term for both (焊接), and the standard English translation is "welding". This can lead to some confusion when Chinese manufacturers start talking about e.g. "surface-mount welding". :) | | |
| ▲ | jacquesm an hour ago | parent [-] | | Heh, that would be a funny misunderstanding to have as well as the opposite, when you get back something soldered when you expected it to be welded. |
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| ▲ | 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | [deleted] |
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| ▲ | LorenPechtel 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | This was a track laid a few weeks ago? I think that's the problem. |
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| ▲ | hibikir 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| They are two very different accidents: The second was insufficient/poor maintenance: Supposedly the train that checks for this had passed 2 months before, and someone will have to wonder whether it's just not passing often enough, or if the inspections are just poor in general. The first was purely a matter of not upgrading the signaling in a very low speed section: The crash could have happened with regional trains too. Every engineer knew that it was unsafe and one distraction was enough to get someone killed, but Spain is still well in the middle of track expansion, so it's all the horrors of politicking. Unless you have a crash, not upgrading those signals costs nothing, but, say, the very expensive connection to Asturias was worth a lot, so iffy tradeoffs were made. Hopefully better engineering-driven tradeoffs are made regarding track maintenance, but hey, this is Spain, not a place where we are good at efficient, reliable safety processes: See the failures in Valencia for the DANA, where the chain between the meteorologists seeing a risk that led to recommending evacuation, and the actual order of evacuation was so slow, so we ended up with 229 deaths. |
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| ▲ | legitronics 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > And that's in a country with a much larger population and much higher passenger count per year. These are actually points making the Japanese system easier to maintain. Because of smaller surface area it’s much denser. |
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| ▲ | tjwebbnorfolk an hour ago | parent [-] | | earthquakes, tho? Maybe the constant state of necessary vigilance has something to do with it here. |
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| ▲ | NewJazz 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Different soil? Different climate/weather patterns. Japan having to build to earthquake standards, so being more robust overall? Or to specific failure modes, at least. |
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| ▲ | baq 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Perhaps there are less FSB agents blowing up sections of track with shaped charges in Japan. |
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| ▲ | hexbin010 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Source? | |
| ▲ | bflesch 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Yeah funny how instantly top comments are about moving the discussion away from the elephant in the room: russian sabotage against a European nation. Then you mention fsb and get downvoted. HN is full of russian shills. | | |
| ▲ | pfannkuchen 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Why would they do that though? Like if people start associating "support Ukraine" with "get randomly attacked" then perhaps carrying out attacks could get them to reduce their support. But if the public don't think it's related, then what is the benefit to Russia? Do the Spanish government secretly know and it's a pressure tactic on them? | |
| ▲ | gambiting 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | They do seem to come out of the woodwork quickly. Tbf I remember even before the current war, HN had a lot of Russian users - I'm not entirely surprised they would naturally defend their country, even if they aren't oblivious to what is happening. | | |
| ▲ | rvba 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | On other websitrs those are not real users, but bots. Bots that track each mention of a keyword (nowadays can analyse posts too). I wonder if Dang has any tools to deal with that. |
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| ▲ | masklinn 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| A component here is the highly unfortunate timing of two trains crossing one another as one of the trains derailed. Both trains look like rigid HSRs, and usually when these derails they stay very stable and rarely have fatalities. |
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| ▲ | vlovich123 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Track maintenance? |
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| ▲ | amenghra 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Higher passenger count could imply ability to pass higher maintenance budgets? |
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| ▲ | 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
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| ▲ | cromka 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I think even more important is the seismic activity in Japan asa risk factor here |
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| ▲ | throwaway743950 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Could weather or some other geographic/similar aspect be a factor? |
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| ▲ | bflesch 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | The geographic aspect of russian agents being in vincinity of the traintracks. Week before supply trains in Germany also derailed, as they do once per month. | | |
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| ▲ | shevy-java 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Yeah. Japan really has better quality standards here overall. Now - Japanese mentality is strange to me, but the quality standards
and thought process, are convincing. |
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| ▲ | userbinator 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Japan has a culture of perfection. |
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| ▲ | lifestyleguru 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > Santiago de Compostela derailment Hey that infrastructure looks perfectly fine and new, ahhh ok... they were going 180kmh where the speed limit was 80kmh.. |
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| ▲ | nelox 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| [flagged] |
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| ▲ | pibaker 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Edit: someone down this thread pointed out the answer is likely written by AI. If you copy the whole post from GP into ChatGPT it will give you an answer very similar to the post I am replying to. > Shinkansen lines are completely separate from conventional rail: no level crossings, no shared tracks, no freight, and no interaction with slower services. Not true. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYol11bVoNw https://ameblo.jp/nakamurapon943056/entry-12488005292.html > but they still tend to interact more with legacy rail networks and inherit more constraints. Spanish high speed trains mostly run on their own tracks because of gauge differences. France and Germany are the ones who actually runs high speed trains on old tracks, a lot. It is surprising how many upvotes you can get on the internet just by glazing the Japanese. | | |
| ▲ | m4rtink 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | There are some lines that were originally built as regular narrow gauge railways and later converted to standard gauge supporting Shinkansen trainsets. This is called Mini-Shinkansen: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mini-Shinkansen This comes with limitations, as the maximum track speed on these converted lines is apparently around 130 km/h. None of the actual Shinkansen stadard lines have level crossings. | |
| ▲ | frutiger 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The answer was almost certainly generated by an LLM. | | |
| ▲ | pibaker 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | I tried asking ChatGPT if Japanese high speed rail has level crossings and it correctly identified the line I used as my counterexample (Yamagata Shinkansen). I think GP is just plainly misinformed in a more boring way. | | |
| ▲ | dchest 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | If you paste the comment it replies to into ChatGPT, it generates almost exact same answer as that comment. Also, "Finally, ..." and "it's not A, it's B" is a good tell. | | |
| ▲ | pibaker 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Damn, I tried doing what you did and got a similar response too, down to exact wordings like "short answer, long answer" and "conservative maintenance". I will admit i was too quick to dismiss the accusation in my previous reply. | |
| ▲ | tzs 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > If you paste the comment it replies to into ChatGPT, it generates almost exact same answer as that comment. But would it have generated almost the same comment 4 hours ago, when the comment was posted here? A few months ago I posted a comment in a thread about some new law that would not have been needed if a law from many years early had not seemingly arbitrarily limited itself to some particular cases. I speculated on some reasons why the original law might have been written that way. A couple hours later I asked an LLM about it (Perplexity) and it gave the same reasons I had guessed. I checked the links it provided to get a suitable reference if the topic ever came up again...and it turned out my comment was its source! |
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| ▲ | ronsor 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | "thing; thing, Japan" is a meme for a reason. I was wondering how long it would take to appear in this thread. | |
| ▲ | qiqitori 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | That's nitpicking, IMO. It's still 99% true. There are just two "Mini-Shinkansen" lines, they only run once or twice per hour, are shorter than non-Mini-Shinkansen, and only a relatively short part (distance-wise) of their journey is spent on the slow tracks. There are non-Shinkansen trains on the Mini-Shinkansen portion of their journey, but not very many. (Also the word "shinkansen" implies new tracks.) | |
| ▲ | baud147258 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > France and Germany are the ones who actually runs high speed trains on old tracks, a lot. At least in France, high speed trains on older tracks won't go as fast as on the dedicated high speed tracks | |
| ▲ | bjourne 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > Short answer: Japan treats high-speed rail as a tightly controlled system, not just fast trains on tracks. Is exactly what a text bot would say. Eloquent, but when you think about it, is just nonsense. Which operator treats HSR as "fast trains on tracks" and which does not treat it is a "tightly controlled system"? |
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| ▲ | virtualritz 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Japanese high speed tracks get checked (and repaired/replaced, if required) every night. During the midnight-to-6am window. That's why something like a fractured high speed rail track would never go undetected in Japan. https://www.plassertheurer.com/en/today/stories/japanese-pre... https://global.jr-central.co.jp/en/company/data-book/_pdf/20... https://www.ejrcf.or.jp/jrtr/jrtr61/16_21.html https://international-railway-safety-council.com/wp-content/... | | |
| ▲ | Symbiote 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | > It added that three trains that had gone over the tracks at 17:21 on Sunday, 19:01 and then 19:09 had similar notches "with a compatible geometric pattern". Then the crashed train passed at 19:45. I don't see why an overnight inspection must have caught this, it could have happened just before the 17:21 train, or even have been caused by it. We will need to wait for the investigation to continue, and I hope Japan's rail people will not be so arrogant as to assume they can't learn something from it. |
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| ▲ | vshade 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Spanish high speed lines are mostly separate from the legacy network as they have different gauges, there are a few parts of the railway with dual gauge tracks but it is that.
The Santiago accident was on the conventional rail. | |
| ▲ | pmarg 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Just a small clarification, Spain has two distinct track stems for normal trains (Iberian gauge) and high speed rail (international gauge). High speed rail is completely separate from the iberian gauge network which is primarly used for city and regional trains. Only a few cargo trains use the high speed network. Regarding the second point, 2013 accident was caused by higher than allowed speed and drivers had been complaining about the line not having the security system that automatically enforces speed limits. In this year's accident, the line has a much stricter securty system. The main issue with spanish rails, high speed and specially traditional rail is the lack of maintenance. | | |
| ▲ | fpoling 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | I have lived in Spain for the last two years and observed the luck of maintenance in a lot of things. For example, people typically pay for house/apartment insurance. But insurance companies never send a person to check for things like leaking pipes or whatever. Rather they simply wait until an accident happens and dispatch an emergency crew and cover a lot of damage that could be easily prevented. Then people tolerate non-trivial damage to homes/apartments like leaky roof not reporting it to insurance companies for weeks. Then with cars people often do not follow the maintenance schedule and insurance companies do not ask for that. Typically people drive until damage happens due to a minor accident or maintenance are forced by state required technical inspection once in few years. The car companies even offer free maintenance checks as a part of guarantee but people skip even that. Yet when someone spends efforts to complain, thinks do gets done. For example there a city service to remove graffiti on public areas. If one files a complain, they react and remove the graffiti. However sometimes one needs to send a complain twice. | | |
| ▲ | AshamedCaptain 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | I think you are describing how the entire world works. I have lived in 3 western European countries through my life, and they all work this way. Never I had the pipes in my home inspected, even now that I live in areas where it freezes regularly. Never has anyone (not even my insurance) forced me to follow any particular maintenance schedule (albeit I'm quite sure somewhere in the fine print it will read that if the accident is because of poor maintenance they'll just ignore the claim). Here the city service to remove Graffiti is almost overnight, and works better than many other public services... |
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| ▲ | decimalenough 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Minor correction: there are two Shinkansen lines in Japan that run trains partly on shared legacy track, namely the Akita and Yamagata "mini-Shinkansens". However, these sections operate at normal speed, not high speed. | |
| ▲ | otikik 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | >If a train exceeds its permitted speed for any reason, the system intervenes immediately That might be because Japan did have a huge railway accident in 2005 due to excessive speed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amagasaki_derailment > Of the roughly 700 passengers, 106 passengers and the driver were killed, and 562 others were injured The Santiago de Compostela derailment (first link on the parent comment) happened in 2013 for the same reason. All that said, I would not be surprised if the culprit for this particular case is lack of maintenance. However I would wait until the official investigation is over before drawing conclusions. | | |
| ▲ | ricardobeat 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | For context: the aforementioned crash in Japan was not on a high-speed / Shinkansen line but a normal commuter train. Both the 2013 accident in Spain and the recent one were high speed trains. I’m not sure these are
comparable, high-speed rail needs much tighter tolerances as the risk is orders of magnitude higher. As the parent comment stated there have been zero major crashes on the japanese shinkansen lines. | | |
| ▲ | pibaker 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | The second train crashed on a non-high speed part of the network. There is also no reason to treat speed limits on high speed and normal trains differently. There are plenty of speed related crashes on low speed lines. If anything the stakes are even higher on commuter trains because they tend to carry more people, many of which will be standing, and are more likely to crash into another structure as was the case in the Japanese incident mentioned. | | |
| ▲ | shevy-java 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | That's still an issue of design though. I am pretty certain that this would not have been possible in quite that way in Japan. | | |
| ▲ | pibaker 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | Your comment is down thread of a comment containing a link to a Wikipedia page of a Japanese train crashed caused by speeding. I do not understand how can you think this is impossible in Japan. |
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| ▲ | ak217 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > That might be because Japan did have a huge railway accident in 2005 due to excessive speed. No, Japan more or less invented ATC in the 1960s for the purpose of running the Shinkansen safely. |
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| ▲ | something765478 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > If a train exceeds its permitted speed for any reason, the system intervenes immediately. Does the system automatically slow down the train, or does it notify the engineer? I would imagine that there are some scenarios where going over the speed limit is the correct choice. | | |
| ▲ | m4rtink 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | ATC stops the train - this is actually an important plot point in both "shinaksen explosion" movies: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bullet_Train https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullet_Train_Explosion In the movies terrorists place a bomb on board and the train crew has to maintain a minimum speed or the bomb explodes (this is where that american movie with a bus got the idea). And they have to manipulate the ATC or else it will stop the train when they enter sections of the track with lower minimum speed, or else ATC stops the train and the bomb explodes. | |
| ▲ | lolc 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I'm curious what scenarios your imagining. Because I can't think of a single situation where a track limit should not be applied automatically, at least to trains with passengers on them. |
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| ▲ | 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | [deleted] | |
| ▲ | 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | [deleted] | |
| ▲ | JumpCrisscross 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Please don’t post slop when people ask thoughtful questions. |
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