Yeah. For comparison, SpaceX will be maybe half the size of MSFT. MSFT is 7.4% of the SP500 index, so for a $1,000,000 portfolio if you were to short MSFT you'd pay 0.25% on the value of that 7.4%, or $185/year.

So eliminating SpaceX exposure will cost you $100 per million of your SP500 ETF per year, or so.

Shorts have unlimited risk. Buying a put is risk-defined and probably a better strategy.

LEAPS are very expensive.

Dimension funds aren’t bad

Short term gains are hype and fomo, but if you're holding index funds long like I am, then returns have a lot more to do with performance. And given the lack of hype around ESG, it seems like an exceptional time to buy in to it.

This is a fallacy. OpenAI and Anthropic would not continue to make money indefinitely by simply sitting still for the simple fact that their models can easily be distilled by competitors. Their value is contingent on sitting at the top of the leaderboards and staying there such that the marginal value of their AI is better than the mostly Chinese competitors.

And b/c these chinese competitors are open weight, the layer below frontier class AI is totally commoditized.

If there were a recession, the first thing enterprise customers would do is setup Kimi or Deepseek rigs. It would be a race to the bottom and no one would be profitable.

A similar phenomenon happened with rail lines in the 1850s where irrational exuberance led to a massive overbuild of rail lines, followed by a race to the bottom and the bankruptcy of almost all players. In the end, banks ended up absorbing the few companies that survived.

Because they're doing the fancy equivalent of selling $20 bills for $15 and chirping about how high their revenue is. You, me, and everyone else could generate $inf revenue with that strategy, but that doesn't make it a viable business model.

Really depends on the valuation and P/E they plan to list at, and some estimate of their future revenue story. I love Codex and Claude Code but OpenCode/Kimi is wildly cheaper and 90% as good.

Didn't we have a story just yesterday that Anthropic's run-rate now looks like $49 billion/ year and they might have their first quarterly profit? I would suggest if you have billions of dollars coming in the door and aren't breaking even, maybe you do have a small leak somewhere?

> Because from where I'm sitting it seems like you're just operating on hopes and feels.

I hate these flippant comments. Similarly, from where I'm sitting it seems you're struggling to disentangle revenue from profit.

" But they could just not do anything and continue raking in the money."

Hahaha what a fucking bozo.

Log out and dont talk about valuation again.

You can sidestep this entirely with a total-market fund like VTSAX/VTI, which hold the entire market and should be more resistant to being gamed.

They’re free-float adjusted so entities like SpaceX are valued only by what’s available on public markets. And Vanguard (and its funds) are owned by its investors, which makes it seem implausible that the rules would be rewritten in a way that would damage investors.

Any of the direct indexing providers will let you blacklist individual stocks from the index. The intended use is to exclude stocks you hold elsewhere (or receive as stock grants) to avoid causing wash sales, but it can also be easily used to make a custom "S&P 499".