| ▲ | chadd 5 hours ago |
| I'm literally guest lecturing at a Harvard class tomorrow on systemic failures in decision making, using the Columbia and Challenger disasters as case studies, and changed my slides last night to include Artemis II because it could literally happen again. This broken safety culture has been around since the beginning of the Shuttle program. In 1980, Gregg Easterbrook published "Goodbye, Columbia" in The Washington Monthly [1], warning that NASA's "success-oriented planning" and political pressure were creating the conditions for catastrophe. He essentially predicted Columbia's heat shield failures in the article 1 year before the first flight. Challenger in 1986, and the Rogers Commission identified hierarchy, communication failures, and management overriding engineering judgment. Then Columbia happened in 2003. The CAIB found NASA had not implemented the 1986 recommendations [2]. Now Charles Camarda (who flew the first shuttle mission after Columbia and is literally a heat shield expert!) is saying it's happening again. [1] https://www.iasa-intl.com/folders/shuttle/GoodbyeColumbia.ht... [2] Columbia Accident Investigation Board Report, Chapter 8: https://www.nasa.gov/columbia/caib/html/start.html |
|
| ▲ | MisterTea 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| > This broken safety culture has been around since the beginning of the Shuttle program. It's broken everywhere. I have worked in some dysfunctional shops and the problem I see time and time again is the people who make it into management are often egoists who don't care about anything other than the financial compensation and clout the job titles bestows upon them. That or they think management is the same as being a shotgun toting sheriff overseeing a chain gang working in the summer heat in the deep south. I've worked with managers who would argue with you even if they knew they were wrong because they were incapable of accepting humiliation. I worked with managers who were wall flowers so afraid of confrontation or negative emotions that they covered up every issue they could in order to avoid any potential negative interaction with their superiors. That manager was also bullied by other managers and even some employees. A lot of it is ego along with a heavy dose of machismo depending. I've seen managers let safety go right down the tubes because "don't be a such a pussy." It's a bad culture that has to go away. |
| |
| ▲ | pstuart an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | A simplistic answer would be to ensure that incentives are aligned with safety and success. Then that leads to the evergreen problem of Goodhart’s Law (when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure). Even if it can't ever be truly fixed, at least recognizing the issues and shining daylight on decisions for some form of accountability should be a base-level approach. | | |
| ▲ | Cpoll an hour ago | parent [-] | | > Goodhart’s Law Useful to be sure, but it's easier to game something like LOC than it is to game "product made money" and "nobody died." |
| |
| ▲ | mmooss 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > people who make it into management are often egoists > they were incapable of accepting humiliation I agree mostly but here is a different take on it: I think these are normal human feelings and behaviors - not the best of us, but not unusual either. If we want to get good things done, we need to work with and through human nature. Power corrupts everyone and shame is generally the most painful thing for humans. Putting people in a position where they need to treat their power with absolute humility or accept humiliation (and a major blow to their careers) in order to do the right thing is going to fail 99% of the time. (I'm not saying people can't do those things and that we shouldn't work hard and aspire to them, but it's not going to happen reliably with any but a few people.) That expectation itself is a culture, organizational and managerial failure. If you see a system in which so many fail, then the problem is the system. And when I say 'managerial' failure, I include leadership by everyone and also 'managing up'. We're all responsible for and agents of the team's results, and whatever our role we need to prevent those situations. One important tactic is to anticipate that problem and get ahead of it, putting the team in a position where the risk is proactively addressed and/or they have the flexibility to change course without 'humiliation'. We're all responsible for the team's culture. I think many blaming others underestimate their own human nature, the effect of power on them and their willingness to endure things like humiliation. Rather than criticising others, I keep my attention on the one in the mirror and on strategies to avoid situations equally dangerous to my own character; otherwise I'll end up doing the same very human things. EDIT: While I still agree with everything I wrote above, there is an exceptional cultural problem here, one which you'll recognize and which is common to many SV leaders, the Trump administration, and others you're familiar with (and which needs a name ...). From the document referenced in the OP by "heat shield expert and Shuttle astronaut Charles Camarda, the former Director of Engineering at Johnson Space Center." "Instead, the meeting started with his [Jared Isaacman, the new NASA Administrator's] declaration that the decision was final. We would launch Artemis II with a crew, even though the uncrewed Artemis I mission around the Moon returned with a seriously damaged heat shield, a failure in my opinion. I was not going to be allowed to present my position on why the decision was flawed. Instead, the public would hear, through the two reporters allowed to attend, the Artemis Program narrative, only one side of the story. They would be bombarded with technical information which they would have very little time to understand ... Jared could claim transparency because the only thermal protection expert and public dissenter, me, was present. ... I was allowed only one-day to review some of the technical documents which were not open to the public and which were classified Controlled Unclassified Information/International Traffic and Arms Regulations (CUI/ITAR) prior to the Jan.8th meeting. ..." https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ddi792xdfNXcBwF8qpDUxmZz... |
|
|
| ▲ | light_hue_1 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| What strikes is not the systemic failures. But the intense culture of secrecy. Reports are heavily redacted. They aren't shared. Failures aren't acknowledged. Engineering models aren't released. That secrecy eventually causes what we see today. |
|
| ▲ | hluska 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| The most frustrating part of the whole thing is that when you read Charles Camarda’s thoughts after his meeting with NASA in January, it could have been written in 1986 or in 2003. https://docs.google.com/document/u/1/d/1ddi792xdfNXcBwF8qpDU... It’s pretty clear at this point that the shuttle was already broken at design. But seeing the same powder keg of safety/budget/immovable time constraints applied to a totally different platform decades in the future feels like sitting through a bad movie for the third time. |
| |
|
| ▲ | jessewmc 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| As an aside, do you have any suggestions for "state of the art" reading on safety culture? |
| |
| ▲ | colechristensen an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | Learn about failures. Inviting Disaster: Lessons From the Edge of Technology was one of the texts for an aerospace class I didn't take but friends did, but honestly you can just read the book. There are lots of frameworks for teaching safety and programs for compliance and such but they are far too easy to cargo cult if you don't appreciate safety and the need for safety culture and UNDERSTAND what failures look like. And when you really understand the need and how significant failures happened... "state of the art" tools and practices take a back seat, they can be useful but they're just tools. What you need is people developing the appropriate vision, and with that the right things tend to follow. | |
| ▲ | FrustratedMonky 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I just had a conversation about engineers not understanding the need for grounding. I'm wondering if every generation has to relearn the basics for themselves through experience. Each generation has to make the same mistakes. Because book learning doesn't seem to do it for some things. | | |
| ▲ | trey-jones 40 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | Sure. Even a history of safety success contributes to this. We haven't had an accident in 3000 days, what was dangerous about this job again? Also what's this stupid policy for anyway, I've never seen anybody even come close to (non-dangerous-sounding fate) while working here. But probably the policy is in place because it used to happen before the policy was in place. It's just not obvious to people who have never seen the consequences before. | |
| ▲ | randomNumber7 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Most people are just resistant to learning (without pain). | |
| ▲ | cindyllm 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | [dead] |
|
|
|
| ▲ | thesuitonym 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| ``It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.'' |
| |
| ▲ | randomNumber7 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Isn't NASA run by the government? Why not pay people to do their job correctly? | | |
| ▲ | gojomo 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | The word "government" doesn't magically erase all the same individual & institutional incentives, ambitions, biases, & flaws that exist elsewhere. And sometimes, the extant magical belief that "government" is different & immune lets those same human factors be ignored until they feed bigger, slower disasters that everyone is afraid to admit, because (ostensibly) "we all did this together". | |
| ▲ | nostrademons 38 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Just because you pay people doesn't mean they do their job correctly. It just gives you the option of not paying them if they don't do their job correctly. | |
| ▲ | anon291 12 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The role of for-profit companies and 'shareholder' value in explaining corporate bad behavior is highly overstated. The only profit that matters is the one at the individual level (i.e., compensation, which is a form of profit, for the individual). A government employee or a private corporation doesn't matter. To the actual humans, they are the same, in that each provides a particular compensation, tied to their decisions. | |
| ▲ | bell-cot 18 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Is "Why not pay people to do their jobs correctly?" a way of voicing frustration with massive gov't incompetence? Or a way of saying that organization incompetence is top-down? | |
| ▲ | jabl 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Because the grifters are running the show. The point is not to fly to orbit/moon/mars/whatever, but shovel taxpayer money to politically well connected large aerospace contractors. |
|
|
|
| ▲ | AndrewKemendo 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| It’s fundamentally a human coordination problem that cannot be solved The more populated and complex an organization gets it becomes impossible to maintain a singular value vector (get these people around the moon safely) Everyone finds meta vectors (keep my job, reduce my own accountability) that maintain their own individual stability, such that if the whole thing fails they won’t feel liable |
| |
| ▲ | njovin 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | It can't be solved 100%, but it can be _mostly_ solved with systemic buy-in to the safety culture. Commercial aviation is a great example IMO. We've spent the last several decades making sure that every single person trained to participate in commercial aviation (maintenance, pilots, attendants, ATC, ground crew) knows their role in the safety culture, and that each of them not only has the power but the _responsibility_ to act to prevent possible accidents. The Swiss Cheese Model [1] does a great job of illustrating this principle and imparting the importance of each person's role in safety culture. A big missing piece with manned space flight IMO is the lack of decision-making authority granted to lower staff. A junior pilot acting as first officer on their very first commercial flight with real passengers has the authority to call a go-around even if a seasoned Captain is flying the plane. AFAIK no such 'anyone can call a no-go' exists within NASA. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_cheese_model | | |
| ▲ | pas 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Safety culture requires the ability to learn from mistakes, the capability to ground planes (without that turning into a political problem), and someone to foot the bill. (Which did not always happen, Boeing MCAS with a SPoF AoA sensor without retraining. A chain of cost-cutting decisions. And of course there were usual problems with market distorting subsidies to both Boeing and Airbus.) NASA's missions are way too big, because the science payloads are unique, so they "can't do" launch early, launch often. And then things sit in storage for years, waiting for budget. (And manned flights are in an even worse situation of course, because they are two-way.) And there's too much sequential dependency in the marquee projects (without enough slack to be able to absorb problems if some earlier dependent outcome is unfavorable), or in other words because of time and cost constraints the projects did not include enough proper development, testing, verification. NASA is doing too many things, and too much of it is politics. It should be more like a grant organization, rewarding cost-efficient scientific (and engineering) progress, in a specific broad area ("spaaace!"), like the NIH (but hopefully not like the NIH). | | |
| ▲ | gus_massa 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | > without enough slack to be able to absorb problems if some earlier dependent outcome is unfavorable It's strange because unmanned mission are heavy in the "under promise and over deliver" territory. They may say something like "we are sending a car to Mars for a month", but everything is over engineered to last for a year. Then it miraculously work for eleven month and it's a huge success. | | |
| |
| ▲ | ethbr1 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Yes and... NASA space programs (doing rare, unknown things) are different than commercial aviation (doing a frequent, known thing with high safety). Best be careful applying solutions from the latter to the former. Layering additional safety layers on top of a fundamentally misaligned organization process also generally balloons costs and delivery timelines (see: NASA). The smarter play is to better align all stakeholders' incentives, from the top (including the president and Congress) to the bottom, to the desired outcome. Right now most parties are working towards very different goals. | |
| ▲ | randomNumber7 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Did you miss the Boeing 737max? | |
| ▲ | AndrewKemendo 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | No, CRM is a disaster you clearly are not in aviation. The reliability in aviation came from incredibly strict regulation and engineering improvements, NOT from structural alignment of parties. They were forced to get safer by the government if you can believe there was a time where the government did anything useful at all. I could go off for literally hours on this topic but suffice to say I’ve done an unbelievable amount of CRM as an officer in the United States Air Force who flew on and executed 100s of combat missions in Iraq My friends from Shell 77 are all dead because of CRM failures Sounds like you need to watch the Rehearsal |
|
|
|
| ▲ | inaros 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Ok after looking into this in more detail, I am concerned with this mission, and the recommendation should be NOT to fly with Astronauts. Looking at the people on the program, and specialty from the ones on this press conference [1] I see only, a bunch of check list fillers and government employees, that will cover their back with reports and third party recommendations, of the style, “I was told” or the “the technical reports said”. Its also commiserating the idiotic and irrelevant questions from most of the press present. How do these people get accredited there? Here are some facts. When NASA flew Orion uncrewed around the Moon in 2022, the heat shield came back with deep gouges. Large chunks of Avcoat material had blown out, and three of four structural bolts had melted through. NASA own Inspector General identified three independently lethal failure modes: - Heat shield spalling exposing the capsule to burn through - Debris striking the parachute compartment - Hot gas ingestion through the melted bolts Noting the latter could cause the "breakup of the vehicle and loss of crew." Then...NASA found a credible root cause. The Avcoat was not porous enough, so pyrolysis gas built up underneath and blew pieces out, like steam cracking a lid. Critically, areas of the Artemis I shield that were porous did not spall. But where it gets alarming is that the Artemis II heat shield was manufactured to be even less porous, a choice made before anyone knew porosity mattered. Rather than replace it, NASA changed the reentry trajectory, instead of a skip reentry meaning dipping in, bouncing out, then re-entering, Orion will dive in steeper. The counterintuitive logic here is more intense, sustained heating actually allows the char layer to form properly and become porous enough for gas to escape, whereas the gentler intermittent heating of the skip paradoxically trapped gas. The physics reasoning is sound, but it has never been validated at full scale. As incredible as it may sound no one has flown this shield design, at this porosity, on this trajectory, at 25,000 mph lunar return speed, on a spacecraft twice the weight of Apollo. The computer model certifying it as safe can predict crack initiation but cannot model crack propagation or the coupled multi physics material response, which is precisely what you need when your failure mode is cascading spalling that creates unpredictable hot spots and alters hypersonic airflow in ways that compound. NASA also failed to recover the Artemis I parachutes, so there is literally zero data on whether debris impacted the system that slows the capsule from 300 mph to 15 mph for splashdown... Perhaps most tellingly, NASA has announced its switching to an entirely new heat shield design! starting with Artemis III, simultaneously certifying this shield as safe to fly while deciding never to fly it again! The strongest argument against crewing this flight is the simplest. NASA recently added an extra Artemis mission to its manifest, removing any programmatic need for astronauts on Artemis II. Flying it uncrewed on the new trajectory would validate or invalidate the models at zero risk to human life, produce full-scale flight data on the actual shield at the actual porosity on the actual trajectory, and let NASA recover the parachutes to close the debris impact gap. Then crew the next mission with data instead of models. As Camarda, a former NASA astronaut and heat shield expert has warned, this is the same organizational pattern, meaning schedule pressure, simplified models substituted for physical understanding of the system, motivated reasoning to reach a predetermined conclusion that preceded both Challenger and Columbia. Lets say a SpaceX Dragon or Boeing Starliner came back with this level of damage, would NASA certify it for crew without an uncrewed validation flight? NASA is risking four lives, when a straightforward, safe alternative, exists. [1] - https://youtu.be/TQH21XCsp5U |
| |
| ▲ | tomjen3 36 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | Didn't they have a crash dummy in it the last time? The data from buster should be able to tell us if the parachute worked or not. | |
| ▲ | iwontberude 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Those astronauts don’t have anyone that loves them at home because no way in hell would any of my loved ones let me be a sacrificial turkey in a fully automated oven. | | |
| ▲ | inaros 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | They do, but they are not in a position to judge. Same way as the Challenger crew despite NASA and astronauts saying, "we would not fly we would not believe to be safe enough". |
|
|
|
| ▲ | actimod 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| It is bound to happen again and again considering humans are so oblivious to safety. |
| |
| ▲ | CWuestefeld 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | humans are so oblivious to safety It seems that in modern times, humans focus on safety almost to the exclusion of everything else. As much as the more traditional salutations "godspeed" or "have a nice day", we're even more likely to hear "drive safe" or "have a safe trip" or "be safe". We're very nearly paralyzed by insisting that everything must be maximally safe. Surely you've heard the mantra "...if it saves just one life...". The optimal amount of tragedy is not zero. It's correct that we should accept some risk. We just need to be up-front and recognize what the safety margins really are. | | |
| ▲ | MeetingsBrowser 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > We're very nearly paralyzed by insisting that everything must be maximally safe. Are we? People saying "have a safe trip" is pretty weak evidence. The counter evidence is just about everything else going on, at least in the US. Relaxed worker safety standards, weakened environmental protections, and generally moving as fast as possible. | | |
| ▲ | adamsb6 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | My kids are going to be legally mandated to be in car seats until they’re about 12 years old. | | |
| ▲ | MeetingsBrowser 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Your implied frustration at a relatively easy change backed by experts and mountains of data is another point in favor of > humans are so oblivious to safety | | |
| ▲ | enoch_r 43 minutes ago | parent [-] | | We have 4 kids. Before we had our 3rd, we needed to buy a new vehicle solely because we couldn't fit 3 car seats into the back of our old car. And when traveling with kids, carrying 4 gigantic car seats plus your other luggage is not exactly as easy as you might think! It essentially rules out solo parent travel with all 4 kids. Transferring car seats between two cars, or installing car seats in a taxi, is a serious pain. Furthermore, the evidence that car seats actually benefit safety is significantly less robust than you might think. The "mountains of evidence" that do exist for things like 70% reductions in fatalities, bizarrely enough, generally compare the rate of fatalities for car seats vs completely unrestrained kids. When you compare the rate of fatalities in car seats to kids wearing adult seat belts, the bulk of the evidence suggests essentially no difference. Fatalities happen when the forces involved are catastrophic and sadly a car seat doesn't help much for kids over 2. Even a back of the envelope comparison makes this extremely plausible: car crash fatalities for kids 9-12 have declined by 72% from 1978-2017. If car seats and car seat laws save significant numbers of lives, you'd expect that the fatality rate for kids 0-8, who are generally in car seats, to have decreased much more. But it hasn't, it declined by 73% over the same period. Now, car seats and boosters do seem to moderately reduce non-fatal injuries - huge spread of estimates here, most clustering around 10-25%. It's reasonable for most people to use car seats or boosters most of the time based on this alone, IMO, especially for young kids. But do they justify a mandate? IMO: no. Absolutely not. Worth mentioning that mandates probably do succeed in one thing: they reduce the number of children born at all by at least 57x more than they prevent child fatalities. Roughly 8,000 kids per year, 145,000 kids since 1980. That's with the (unlikely, as discussed above) assumption that car seats do in fact save significant numbers of lives. But it's also entirely possible that they've prevented hundreds of thousands of kids from being born, somewhat reduced the nonfatal injury rate, and saved essentially no lives. Citations below: Fatality reduction with car seats or boosters: - https://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/seatbelts.pdf (found that seat belts as effective as car seats for children 2-6) - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jae.2449 (independent replication of above with different data set) - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19959729/ (no statistically significant difference between booster seats and seat belt alone for fatalities) - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16754824/ (the main counter-estimate to the above, with the 28% fatality reduction) Non-fatal injury reductions: - https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecinqu/v48y2010i3p521-536.html (no difference in serious injuries, ~25% reduction in least serious injury category) - https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/... (14% reduction in likelihood of injury for boosters) - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19841126/ (45% estimate) - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12783914/ (59% estimate) Reduction in birth rate from car seat mandates: - https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3665046 (car seat mandates "led to a permanent reduction of approximately 8,000 births in the same year, and 145,000 fewer births since 1980, with 90% of this decline being since 2000") Note that both the 45% and 59% estimate for injury reduction and the 28% estimate for fatality reduction all come from one research group using a proprietary data set. Everything that's independently reproducible points towards small or zero effect on fatalities and modest effects on injuries. |
| |
| ▲ | array_key_first 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Considering cars are one of the top causes of death for kids (the top?), this just feels obvious. | |
| ▲ | sfn42 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Oh wow what a tragedy. You think maybe there's reasons for that mandate? Like maybe it saves children's lives? But sure everything would be better if any moron was allowed to decide how to keep their own kids safe. | | |
| ▲ | enoch_r 22 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | The evidence that car seats save lives is significantly weaker that you probably believe, as I detailed in another comment in this thread. But look: even if car seats make sense for a typical 5 year old on a typical drive in their typical car (which is a higher evidentiary burden than you might think), a mandate imposes a huge logistical tax that makes many normal things completely infeasible or impractical: - travel with many kids (nope, physically can't carry 4 car seats plus luggage) - using a taxi, e.g. to go see a movie (nope, can't carry a car seat into the theater) - carpooling with other families (I'll drive them, you pick up? Nope, we'd have to shuffle car seats around.) - rides with grandparents or other family members (sorry, we'd have to deliver the car seat to them first) - splitting kids between two vehicles for errands (let's spend 10m wrestling car seats from one car to the other first) The whole texture of independent childhood is altered by car seat mandates! Everything gets filtered through "is there a car seat available?". If you haven't experienced this, it's hard to describe - and I think it's absolutely a case where tradeoffs like "how will this affect quality of life?" are completely overridden because "well, if it just saves one life..." | |
| ▲ | anon291 7 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The evidence on car seats is extremely weak and they prevent only a handful of injuries. You'd be better off redesigning roads or having more collision protection systems in cars. As self-driving cars get better to the point where they can communicate and eliminate many human errors, there's probably no need for car seats at all. In many situations they make things more dangerous, not less. | |
| ▲ | fuzzfactor an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | >allowed to decide how to keep their own kids safe. This was not the major factor, but when things were still like that, it was not only NASA that made more forward progress than later times. |
|
| |
| ▲ | hoppyhoppy2 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | >Relaxed worker safety standards, weakened environmental protections, and generally moving as fast as possible. These sorts of collective values (or lack thereof) make it more important that individuals focus on their own safety in day-to-day life, no? | | |
| ▲ | MeetingsBrowser 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yes, why don't individuals who live near industrial facilities simply find their own clean air to breathe. And workers should refuse to do unsafe work, and simply take one of the many safe jobs instead. We don't need a childhood vaccine schedule. We just need parents to keep their kids from getting sick. Kind of silly that we as a society even bothered with all of the dangerous safety standards to start with. |
|
| |
| ▲ | rdiddly 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | America has been craving safety since 9/11, and it has made cowards of everybody, so in some sense I would agree. But taking a risk regarding an unknown or to expand knowledge or actually accomplish something is one thing. Ignoring known and mitigable risks just to save money, save face, meet a deadline or please a bureaucrat is another. Anyway these clowns even fail your criterion, because by covering up the results of the first launch/experiment, they are not being up front about a risk. In my opinion this is a top-down, human hierarchy thing. CEOs and agency administrators create and set an organization's culture and expectations. The irony is that a faulty heat shield is an engineering challenge that real engineers would love to tackle; all you have to do is turn them loose on the problem, let them fix it. They live for that. I find it actually aesthetically offensive that the organization and its culture has instead taught them venal, circumspect careerism, which is cowardice of a different kind. | |
| ▲ | randomNumber7 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Our internal emotional thinking doesn't work very well with probabilities so it is a very common fallacy trying to reduce a probability to zero when it is completely irrational. | |
| ▲ | greedo 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Considering that driving (at least in the US) is a relatively unsafe means of travel compared to the alternatives, I can understand imploring someone to drive safe. | | |
| ▲ | nickserv 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Not just the US. Rather strangely when choosing transportation options, people generally don't say "I'll take the subway it's safer", when it very much is. On the other hand people accept things like "I have a fear of flying" much more easily than "I have a fear of cars". |
| |
| ▲ | losvedir 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I feel like all the responses to your comment sort of prove its point. As I was reading the post I was wondering along the same lines, if this is different from before. Going to space is an inherently risky activity. It's always going to be easy to write the "this is not safe" think piece, where you can either say "I told you so" or "Whew, thankfully we made it this time!" afterwards. Things like this only happen when you accept some risk and people say "yes" press forward. All that said, not all risk is equal, and I'm trying to understand if NASA is uniquely dysfunctional now and taking needless, incidental risks. |
| |
| ▲ | nritchie 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Maybe not so much "oblivious to safety" as "oblivious to probable risk." We worry to much about low risk events (like airline flights) and don't worry enough about higher risk events (like trips-and-falls, driving a car, poor diet...) | |
| ▲ | danesparza 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Then explain the Apollo program, and the actual printed literature that came out of the program that summarized how they were successful. | | |
| ▲ | mathgeek 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | If you're looking for programs where mistakes were not made, Apollo is not the program to choose. I highly recommend visiting Kennedy Space Center some time where they go in-depth on how close it came to never happening after Apollo I. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_1 That being said, I'm a big proponent of "you can't make ICBM's carrying humans 100% safe", but you sure can try your best. | |
| ▲ | mikkupikku 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Apollo killed three astronauts. NASA learned some lessons from that and the rest of the program was safer, although still extremely risky. |
| |
| ▲ | irchans 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Us humans do have difficulty with safety. Sometimes we are able to overcome that problem to an extent. Here are some the few examples where humans have done well with safety: FAA commercial airlines, Soyuz, ISS, Shinkansen trains, US Nuclear power post 3 mile island, Vaccines, and the Falcon 9. | |
| ▲ | hluska 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I wouldn’t say humans are oblivious to safety. The Apollo program was very successful as long as you’re not related to Gus Grissom, Ed White or Roger Chaffee. But those three (preventable) deaths aside, Apollo was quite successful and figured out some huge problems. If you’re interested in a heck of a good read, the Columbia Accident Investigation Report is a good place to start: https://ehss.energy.gov/deprep/archive/documents/0308_caib_r... It looks at the safety culture in NASA and at how that safety culture ran into budget issues, time pressure and a culture that ‘it’s always been okay’. But people were aware of the problems. There’s a really frustrating example from Columbia where engineers on the ground badly wanted to inspect the shuttle’s left wing from the ground using ground based telescopes or even observations from telescopes or any other assets. There’s footage available was an email circulated where an engineer all but begged anyone to take a look with anything. That request was not approved - they never looked. Realistically there’s a point to be made that NASA wasn’t capable of saving those astronauts at that point. But they had a shuttle almost ready to to, they could have jettisoned its science load and possibly had a rescue of some sort available. They never looked though but alarm bells were ringing. It’s more accurate to say people are highly aware of safety but when you get a bunch of us together, add in cognitive biases and promotion bands we can get stuck in unsafe ruts. | | |
| ▲ | sfn42 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | I'd say it's more accurate to say the people who are actually smart work as engineers. Leadership is generally engineers who were better at office politics than engineering, or just business majors etc. So you have a group of really talented people using their talents to do awesome things, and then you have some useless idiots who are good at kissing the right asses, running the show and taking most of the credit. And that's how you end up killing astronauts, because the useless assholes in charge aren't even competent enough to recognize when they should listen to the brains of their operation. All they care about is looking good to their superiors and hitting some arbitrary deadline they've decided to set for no damn reason etc. |
|
|