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alangibson 7 hours ago

Either this is a straight up con, or Musk found a glitch in physics. It's extremely difficult to keep things cold in space.

darth_avocado 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

He buys twitter at an inflated valuation. Runs it to the ground to a much lower valuation of $9B. [1] Then, his company Xai buys Twitter at a $33B, inflating the valuation up. Then SpaceX merges with Xai for no particular reason, but is expected to IPO at a $1T+ in the upcoming years. [3]

I’m not that smart, but if I were, I would be thinking this is an extended way to move the losses from the Twitter purchase on to the public markets.

[1] https://www.axios.com/2023/12/31/elon-musks-x-fidelity-valua...

[2] https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/musks-xai-buys-social-...

[3] https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/02/02/elon-musk-spacex-xai-ipo...

SilverElfin 6 hours ago | parent [-]

It also makes it impossible for Twitter/X to die, as it deserves. It is by far the most toxic mainstream social network. It has an overwhelming amount of far right supremacist content. So bad that it literally resulted in Vivek Ramaswamy, a gubernatorial candidate in Ohio, to quit Twitter/X - nearly 100% of replies to his posts were from far right racists.

Obviously advertisers have not been fans. And it is a dying business. But rather than it dying, Elon has found a clever (and probably illegal) way to make it so that SpaceX, which has national security importance, is going to prop up Twitter/X. Now our taxpayer dollars are paying for this outrageous social network to exist.

taurath 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I find HN and the tech circles to be one of the main community pillars holding up X. None of my social friends use it anymore, but links absolutely abound here, and it seems like the standard line is to pretend Elon, Grok, all the one button revenge and child porn etc don’t exist. I truly can’t fathom the amount of not thinking about it it would take to keep using the platform.

tasty_freeze 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I have a blocker set up in my browser to prevent accidental clicks and sending any traffic to them when I'm not careful to check a given HN link to a posting. I've never had an account there (nor any of the popular social media networks) but I don't want to send even my few clicks their way.

IhateAI 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Just use lists, "Your Followers" tab and never touch the "For You" tab and its basically the same as Twitter was 5 years ago.

RIMR 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I am with you 100%.

It was easy to support SpaceX, despite the racist/sexist/authoritarian views of its owner, because he kept that nonsense out of the conversation.

X is not the same. Elon is actively spewing his ultraconservative views on that site.

Now that these are the same company, there's no separation. SpaceX is part of Musk's political mission now. No matter how cool the tech, I cannot morally support this company, and I hope, for the sake of society, it fails.

This announcement, right after the reveal that Elon Musk reached out to Jeffrey Epstein and tried to book a trip to Little St. James so that he could party with "girls", really doesn't bode well.

It's a shame you can't vote these people out, because I loved places like Twitter, and businesses like SpaceX and Tesla, but Elon Musk is a fascist who uses his power and influence to attack some of the most important pillars of our society.

jfreds 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

You kinda can, just don’t make a Twitter account, don’t buy teslas, don’t use grok. Tell your friends

tasty_freeze 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> X is not the same. Elon is actively spewing his ultraconservative views on that site.

I wonder if Musk would be willing to let a journalist do a deep dive on all internal communications in the same way he did when he took over twitter.

b40d-48b2-979e 32 minutes ago | parent [-]

That was not a journalist.

dahinds 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This isn't really true, though? The ISS does it with radiators that are ~1/2 the area of its solar panels, and both should scale linearly with power?

alangibson 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

ISS radiators run on water and ammonia. Think about how much a kg costs to lift to space and you'll see the economics of space data centers fall apart real fast. Plus, if the radiator springs a leak the satellite is scrap.

trothamel 2 hours ago | parent [-]

The point of the Starship program is to drop the cost of a kg going to space significantly - this isn't meant to be launched with rockets that aren't fully reusable.

wild_egg 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The ISS creates radically less heat than a datacenter

IvyMike 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I don't pretend to understand the thermodynamics of all of this to do an actual calculation, but note that the ISS spends half its time in the shadow of the earth, which these satellites would not do.

smw 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Wouldn't they?

tadfisher 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

You would put these in polar orbits so they are always facing the Sun. Basically the longitude would follow the Sun (or the terminator line, whichever you prefer), and the latitude would oscillate from 90°N to 90°S and back every 24 hours.

IvyMike 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

From the linked article:

> By directly harnessing near-constant solar power

Implies they would not spend half of their time in the dark.

el_nahual 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Radiator size scales linearly with power but, crucially, coolant power, pumps, etc do not.

Imagine the capillary/friction losses, the force required, and the energy use(!) required to pump ammonia through a football-field sized radiator panel.

wongarsu 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Moving electricity long distance is a lot easier than moving coolant long distances, which puts a soft limit on the reasonable size of the solar array of these satellites. But as long as you stay below that and pick a reasonable orbit it's indeed not too bad, you just have to properly plan for it

FireBeyond 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The ISS isn't consuming and generating megawatts+ of power.

dahinds 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Yes but if the solar panel area scales linearly with radiator area, the problem doesn't get worse?

consp 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It does if you don't turn off the heat source every 30 minutes or so. Since the "datacenters" are targeted at sun synchronous orbits they have 24/7 heat issues. And they convert pretty much all collected energy into heat as well (and some data, but that's negligible). Those GPUs are not magically not generating heat.

manquer 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Wouldn't the panels themselves need cooling too? The ones on earth generate heat while being in the sun.

There are commercial systems that can use open loop cooling (i.e. spray water) to improve efficiency of the panel by keeping the panel at a optimal temp of ~25C and the more expensive closed loop systems with active cooling recovers additional energy from the heat by circulating water like a solar heater in the panel back.

cowsandmilk 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I would hope SpaceX is using more efficient solar cells than the ISS

philipkglass 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Probably not. The ISS got a solar array upgrade after its initial launch:

https://www.spectrolab.com/company.html

Twenty-five years after the ISS began operations in low Earth orbit, a new generation of advanced solar cells from Spectrolab, twice as efficient as their predecessors, are supplementing the existing arrays to allow the ISS to continue to operate to 2030 and beyond. Eight new arrays, known as iROSAs (ISS Roll-Out Solar Arrays) are being installed on the ISS in orbit.

The new arrays use multi-junction compound semiconductor solar cells from Spectrolab. These cells cost something like 500 times as much per watt as modern silicon solar cells, and they only produce about 50% more power per unit area. On top of that, the materials that Spectrolab cells are made of are inherently rare. Anyone talking about scaling solar to terawatts has to rely on silicon or maybe perovskite materials (but those are still experimental).

6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]
[deleted]
FloorEgg 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Setting aside the possibility it's window dressing for a financial bailout, there would be two ways compute in space makes sense:

1) new technology improves vacuum heat radiation efficiency

2) new technology reduces waste heat generation from compute

All the takes I've seen have been focused on #1, but I'm starting to wonder about #2... Specifically spintronics and photonic chips.

brandonlovesked 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

If you solve 2, heat dissipation goes away on earth too, so what’s the advantage of space

FloorEgg 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I'm not the best person to make that case as I can only speculate (land cost, permitting, latency, etc). /Shrug

In all the conversations I've seen play out on hacker news about compute in space, what comes up every time is "it's unviable because cooling is so inefficient".

Which got me thinking, what if cooling needs dropped by orders of magnitude? Then I learned about photonic chips and spintronics.

tadfisher 4 hours ago | parent [-]

If you're considering only viability, the obvious concern would be cooling, yes; because increasingly large radiative cooling systems dominate launch costs because of all the liquid you need to boost into orbit. And one 100MW installation would be 500 times the largest solar power/radiative cooling system we've ever launched, which is the ISS. So get that down 2 orders of magnitude and you're within the realm of something we _know_ is possible to do instead of something we can _speculate_ is possible.

After that frankly society-destabilizing miracle of inventing competitive photonic processing, your goal of operating data centers in space becomes a tractable economic problem:

Pros:

- You get a continuous 1.37 kW/m^2 instead of an intermittent 1.0 kW/m^2

- Any reasonable spatial volume is essentially zero-cost

Cons:

- Small latency disadvantage

- You have to launch all of your hardware into polar orbit

- On-site servicing becomes another economic problem

So it's totally reasonable to expect the conversation to revolve around cooling, because we know SpaceX can probably direct around $1T into converting methane into delta-V to make the economics work, but the cooling issue is the difference between maybe getting one DC up for that kind of money, or 100 DCs.

FloorEgg 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Do you mind expanding on "society-destabalizing"?

tadfisher 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Well, the primary limit on computation today is heat dissipation (the "power wall"). You either need to limit power so your phone or laptop doesn't destroy itself, or pay more to evacuate heat produced by the chips in your data center, which has its own efficiency curve.

If we suddenly lose 2 orders of magnitude of heat produced by our chips, that means we can fit 2 orders of magnitude more compute in the same volume. That is going to be destabilizing in some way, at the very least because you will get the same amount of compute in 1% the data center square footage of today; alternatively, you will get 100-900x the compute in today's data center footprint. That's like going from dial-up to fiber.

twism 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> space is called “space” for a reason.

momoschili 5 hours ago | parent [-]

you think we don't have enough space on earth for a few buildings? this seems like a purely western cope. China seems perfectly able to build out large infrastructure projects with a land area smaller than that of the continentenal USA

Marsymars 4 hours ago | parent [-]

> China seems perfectly able to build out large infrastructure projects with a land area smaller than that of the continentenal USA

China has a land area greater than the USA. (Continental or otherwise.)

momoschili 16 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

sure, we can neglect the water, but the USA has much more usable flat land than China, and that is a pretty inarguable point.

usui 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Not true. China 9.6 million square kilometers, USA 9.8 million square kilometers, contiguous 8.1 million.

Marsymars 2 hours ago | parent [-]

You're presumably looking at a source that's including water area. When talking about land area, China > USA > Canada. (As opposed to when including water area, Canada > USA > China)

TheDong 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

1. It's cheaper to make a vacuum on earth around a computer than it is to send a computer into space.

2. That would also presumably work on earth, unless it somehow relied on low-gravity, and would also be cheaper to benefit from on earth.

tbrownaw 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> new technology improves vacuum heat radiation efficiency

Isn't this fixed by blackbody radiation equations?

iamgopal 3 hours ago | parent [-]

That equation have surface area ? What if new material found to be extremely large surface area to weight ratio to dissipate lots of heat ?

nhq1298 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Maybe Karpathy has been hired to design a Full Self Cooling system.

nutjob2 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It's a con, his AI business is failing, so he's rolling it up into the profitable business. Did a similar thing with Twitter.

This is so obvious, but it's so stupid and at this scale that people find it hard to believe.

pantalaimon 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Existing satellites manage to keep their equipment that already can consume several kW cool just fine.

You might need space for radiators, but there is plenty space in space.

nerdsniper 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

5,000 Starship launches to match the solar/heat budget of the 10GW "Stargate" OpenAI datacenter. The Falcon 9 family has achieved over 600 launches.

The ISS power/heat budget is like 240,000 BTU/hr. That’s equivalent to half of an Nvidia GB200 NVL72 rack. So two international space stations per rack. Or about 160,000 international space stations to cool the 10GW “Stargate” datacenter that OpenAI’s building in Abilene. There are 10,000 starlink satellites.

Starship could probably carry 250-300 of the new V2 Mini satellites which are supposed to have a power/heat budget of like 8kW. That's how I got 5,000 Starship launches to match OpenAI’s datacenter.

Weight seems less of an issue than size. 83,000 NVL72’s would weigh 270 million lbs or 20% of the lift capacity of 5000 starship launches. Leaving 80% for the rest of the satellite mass, which seems perhaps reasonable.

Elon's napkin math is definitely off though, by over an order of magnitude. "a million tons per year of satellites generating 100 kW of compute power per ton" The NVL72's use 74kW per ton. But that's just the compute, without including the rest of the fucking satellite (solar panels and radiators). So that estimate is complete garbage.

One note: If you could afford to send up one of your own personal satellites, it would be extremely difficult for the FBI to raid.

alangibson 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Several kW is nothing for a bank of GPUs.

Radiators in space are extremely inefficient because there's no conduction.

Also you have huge heat inputs from the sun. So you need substantial cooling before you get around to actually cooling the GPUs.

DoctorOetker 6 hours ago | parent [-]

you put the radiators and the rest of the satellite within the shade of the solar panels, you can still make the area arbitrarily large

EDIT: people continue downvoting and replying with irrelevant retorts, so I'll add in some calculations

Let's assume

1. cheap 18% efficient solar panels (though much better can be achieved with multijunction and quantum-cutting phosphors)

2. simplistic 1360 W/m^2 sunlight orthogonal to the sun

3. an abstract input Area Ain of solar panels (pretend its a square area: Ain = L ^ 2)

4. The amount of heat generated on the solar panels (100%-18%) * Ain * 1360 W / m ^ 2, the electrical energy being 18% * Ain * 1360 W / m ^ 2. The electrical energy will ultimately be converted to computational results and heat by the satellite compute. So the radiative cooling (only option in space) must dissipate 100% of the incoming solar energy: the 1360 W / m^2 * Ain.

5. Lets make a pyramid with the square solar panel as a base, with the apex pointing away from the sun, we make sure the surface has high emissivity (roughly 1) in thermal infrared. Observe that such a pyramid has all sides in the shade of the sun. But it is low earth orbit so lets assume warm earth is occupying one hemisphere and we have to put thermal IR reflectors on the 2 pyramid sides facing earth, so the other 2 pyramid sides face actual cold space.

6. The area for a square based symmetric pyramid: we have

6.a. The area of the base Ain = L * L.

6.b. The area of the 4 sides 2 * L * sqrt( L ^ 2 / 4 + h ^ 2 )

6.c. The area of just 2 sides having output Area Aout = L * sqrt( L ^ 2 / 4 + h ^ 2 )

7. The 2 radiative sides not seeing the sun and not seeing the earth together have the area in 6.c and must dissipate L ^ 2 * 1360 W / m ^ 2 .

8. Hello Stefan-Boltzmann Law: for emissivity 1 we have the radiant exitance M = sigma * T ^ 4 (units W / m ^ 2 )

9. The total power exited through the 2 thermal radiating sides of the pyramid is then Aout * M

10. Select a desired temperature and solve for h / L (to stay dimensionless and get the ratio of the pyramid height to its base side length), lets run the satellite at 300 K = ~26 deg C just as an example.

11. If you solve this for h / L we get: h / L = sqrt( ( 1360 W / m ^ 2 / (sigma * T ^ 4 ) ) ^ 2 - 1/4 )

12. Numerically for 300K target temperature we get: h/L = sqrt((1360 / (5.67 * 10^-8 * 300 ^ 4)) ^ 2 - 1/4) = 2.91870351609271066729

13. So the pyramid height of "horribly poor cooling capability in space" would be a shocking 3 times the side length of the square solar panel array.

As a child I was obsessed with computer technology, and this will resonate with many of you: computer science is the poor man's science, as soon as a computer becomes available in the household, some children autodidactically educate themselves in programming etc. This is HN, a lot of programmers who followed the poor man's science path out of necessity. I had the opportunity to choose something else, I chose physics. No amount of programming and acquiring titles of software "engineer" will be a good substitute for physicists and engineers that actually had courses on the physical sciences, and the mathematics to follow the important historical deductions... It's very hard to explain this to the people who followed the path I had almost taken. And they downvote me because they didn't have the opportunity, courage or stamina to take the path I took, and so they blindly copy paste each others doomscrolled arguments.

Look I'm not an elon fanboy... but when I read people arguing that cooling considerations excludes this future, while I know you can set the temperature arbitrarily low but not below background temperature of the universe 4 K, then I simply explain that obviously the area can be made arbitrarily large, so the temperature can be chosen by the system designer. But hey the HN crowd prefers the layers of libraries and abstractions and made themselves an emulation of an emulation of an emulation of a pre-agreed reality as documented in datasheets and manuals, and is ultimately so removed from reality based communities like physics and physics engineering, that the "democracy" programmers opinions dominate...

So go ahead and give me some more downvotes ;)

If you like mnemonics for important constants: here's one for the Stefan Boltzman constant: 5.67 * 10^-8 W / m^2 / K ^ 4

thats 4 consecutive digits 5,6,7,8 ; comma or point after the first significant digit and the exponent 8 has a minus sign.

perryprog 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It's really not that simple. See this for a good explanation of why: https://taranis.ie/datacenters-in-space-are-a-terrible-horri...

tyg13 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It all basically boils down to: in order to dissipate heat, you need something to dissipate heat into, e.g. air, liquid, etc. Even if you liquid cool the GPUs, where is the heat going to go?

On Earth, you can vent the heat into the atmosphere no problem, but in space, there's no atmosphere to vent to, so dissipating heat becomes a very, very difficult problem to solve. You can use radiators to an extent, but again, because no atmosphere, they're orders of magnitude less effective in space. So any kind of cooling array would have to be huge, and you'd also have to find some way to shade them, because you still have to deal with heat and other kinds of radiation coming from the Sun.

It's easier to just keep them on Earth.

eldenring 41 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

What you're describing is one of two mechanisms of shedding heat which is convection, heating up the environment. What the long comment above is describing is a _completely_ different mechanism, radiation, which is __more__ efficient in a vacuum. They are different things that you are mixing up.

DoctorOetker 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

for a square solar array of side length L, a pyramid height of 3*L would bring the temperature to below 300K, check my calculation above.

people heavily underestimate radiative cooling, probably because precisely our atmosphere hinders its effective utilization!

lesson: its not because radiative cooling is hard to exploit on earth at sea level, that its similarily ineffective in space!

DoctorOetker 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

that page has not a single calculation of radiative heat dissipation, seems like he pessimistically designed the satellite avoiding use of radiative cooling which forces him to employ a low operational duty cycle. Kind of a shame to be honest, given the high costs of launching satellites, his sat could have been on for a larger fraction of time...

tempestn 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

That helps with the heat from the sun problem, but not the radiation of heat from the GPUs. Those radiators would need to be unshaded by the solar panels, and would need to be enormous. Cooling stuff in atmosphere is far easier than in vacuum.

bdamm 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Not so. Look at the construction of JWST. One side is "hot", the other side is very, very cold.

I am highly skeptical about data centers in space, but radiators don't need to be unshaded. In fact, they benefit from the shade. This is also being done on the ISS.

tempestn 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

That's fair. I meant they would need a clear path to open space not blocked by solar panels, but yes, a hot and cold side makes sense.

The whole concept is still insane though, fwiw.

DoctorOetker 4 hours ago | parent [-]

"I meant they would need a clear path to open space not blocked by solar panels, but yes, a hot and cold side makes sense."

This is precisely why my didactic example above uses a convex shape, a pyramid. This guarantees each surface absorbs or radiates energy without having to take into account self-obscuring by satellite shape.

RIMR 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Look at how many layers of insulation are needed for the JWST to have a hot and cold side! Again, this is not particularly simple stuff.

The JWST operates at 2kw max. That's not enough for a single H200.

AI datacenters in space are a non-starter. Anyone arguing otherwise doesn't understand basic thermodynamics.

DoctorOetker 3 hours ago | parent [-]

The goal of JWST is not to consume as much power as possible, and perform useful computations with it. A system not optimized for metric B but for metric A scores bad for metric B... great observation.

lm28469 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> Look at the construction of JWST.

A very high end desktop pulls more electricity than the whole JWST... Which is about the same as a hair dryer.

Now you need about 50x more for a rack and hundreds/thousands racks for a meaningful cluster. Shaded or not it's a shit load of radiators

https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/microsoft-azure-deliv...

DoctorOetker 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

this makes no sense, the radiation of heat from the GPU's came from electrical energy, the electrical energy came from the efficient fraction of solar panel energy, the inefficient fraction being heating of the solar panel, the total amount of heat that needs to be dissipated is simply the total amount of energy incident on the solar panels.

tempestn 3 hours ago | parent [-]

True, the solar panels would need to be enormous too.

alangibson 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> arbitrarily large

Space is not empty. Satellites have to be boosted all the time because of drag. Massive panels would only worsen that. Once you boosters are empty the satellite is toast.

DoctorOetker 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

the point wasn't that a 1 m^2 solar panel could theoretically be kept reasonably cool at the cost of a miles long radiator... nono, the point was that you could attain any desirable temperature this way, arbitrarily close to 4K.

for a reasonable temperature (check my comment for updated calculations) the height of a square based pyramidal satellite would be about 3 times the side length of its base, quite reasonable indeed. Thats with the square base of the pyramid as solar panel facing the sun, and the top of the pyramid facing away, so all sides are in the shade of the base. I even halved my theoretical cooling power to keep calculations simple: to avoid a long confusing calculation of the heat emitted by earth, I handicapped my design so 2 of the pyramidal side surfaces are reflective (facing earth) and the remaining 2 side triangles of the pyramid are the only used thermal radiative cooling surfaces. Less pessimistic approaches are possible, but would make the calculation less didactic for the HN crowd.

inglor_cz 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

"Satellites have to be boosted all the time because of drag."

On Low Earth Orbits (LEOs), sure, but the traces of atmosphere that cause the drag disappear quite fast with increasing altitude. At 1000 km, you will stay up for decades.

stingrae 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

arbitrarily large means like measured in square km. Starcloud is talking about 4km x 4km area of solar panels and radiative cooling. (https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/starcloud/)

Building this is definitely not trivial and not easy to make arbitrarily large.

DoctorOetker 4 hours ago | parent [-]

When a physicist says arbitrarily large it could even be in a dimensionless sense. It doesn't matter how small or large the solar panel is:

for a 4 m x 4 m solar panel, the height of the pyramid would have to be 12 m to attain ~ 300 K on the radiator panels. Thats also the cold side for your compute.

for a 4 km x 4 km solar panel the height of the pyramid would be 12 km.

adastra22 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I’ve got a perpetual motion machine to sell you.

DoctorOetker 4 hours ago | parent [-]

this isn't even an argument?

adastra22 3 hours ago | parent [-]

> you put the radiators and the rest of the satellite within the shade of the solar panels, you can still make the area arbitrarily large

The larger you make the area, the more solar energy you are collecting. More shade = more heat to radiate. You are not actually making the problem easier.

DoctorOetker 3 hours ago | parent [-]

no the radiator planes are in the shade, so you can increase the height of a pyramidal shaped satellite for a constant solar panel base, and thus enjoy arbitrarily low rest temperatures, check my calculation which I added.

for a target temperature of 300K that would mean the pyramid height would be a bit less than 3 times higher than the square base side length h=3L.

I even handicapped my example by only counting heat radiation from 2 of the 4 panels, assuming the 2 others are simply reflective (to make the calculation of a nearby warm Earth irrelevant).

MuskIsAntidemo 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[dead]

TheGRS 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I'm not big on this subject, but I understand that heat transfer is difficult in space, because there's little to transfer to. If the solution is just making large radiators, then that means you're sending some big payloads full of radiators. Not to mention all the solar panels needed. I wanna live in sci-fi land too, but I don't see how it makes any sense compared to a terrestrial data center.

eldenring 6 hours ago | parent [-]

the radiators would be lighter compared to the solar panels, and slightly smaller surface area so you can line them back to back

TheGRS 6 hours ago | parent [-]

If someone has a design out there where this works and you can launch it economically on a rocket today, I wanna see that. And then I wanna compare it to the cost of setting up some data centers on earth (which BTW, you can service in real time, it sounds like these will be one-and-done launches).

Aurornis 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> keep their equipment that already can consume several kW cool just fine

That's equivalent to a couple datacenter GPUs.

> You might need space for radiators, but there is plenty space in space.

Finding space in space is the least difficult problem. Getting it up there is not easy.

eldenring 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

You can line the solar panels and radiators facing away from each other, and the radiators would take up less surface area. I think maybe the tricky part would be the weight of water + pipes to move heat from the compute to the radiators.

bdamm 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Water is not needed to move heat. Heat pipes do it just fine. There's one in your laptop and one in your phone too. It does scale up.

eldenring 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Interesting, That could surely simplify things.

wat10000 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

There's plenty of space in space, but there isn't plenty of space in rocket fairings, nor is there plenty of lift capacity for an unlimited amount of radiators.

umeshunni 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> It's extremely difficult to keep things cold in space.

This is one of those things that's not obvious till you think about it.

JeremyNT 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It's such bullshit that we've decided this moron and others in his cohort can unilaterally reallocate such vast portions of humanity's labor at their whims.

This is an extremely stupid idea, but because of our shared delusion of capitalism and the idea that wealth accumulation at the top should be effectively limitless, this guy gets to screw around and divert actual human labor towards insane and useless projects like this rather than solving real world problems.

pupppet 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Just put a fan in a window.

DoctorOetker 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

what makes you believe this?

radiators can be made as long as desirable within the shade of the solar panels, hence the designer can pracitically set arbitrarily low temperatures above the background temperature of the universe.

c1ccccc1 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Radiators can shadow each other, so that puts some kind of limit on the size of the individual satellite (which limits the size of training run it can be used for, but I guess the goal for these is mostly inference anyway). More seriously, heat conduction is an issue: If the radiator is too long, heat won't get from its base to its tip fast enough. Using fluid is possible, but adds another system that can fail. If nothing else, increasing the size of the radiator means more mass that needs to be launched into space.

DoctorOetker 3 hours ago | parent [-]

please check my didactic example here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46862869

"Radiators can shadow each other," this is precisely why I chose a convex shape, that was not an accident, I chose a pyramid just because its obvious that the 4 triangular sides can be kept in the shade with respect to the sun, and their area can be made arbitrarily large by increasing the height of the pyramid for a constant base. A convex shape guarantees that no part of the surface can appear in the hemispherical view of any other part of the surface.

The only size limit is technological / economical.

In practice h = 3xL where L was the square base side length, suffices to keep the temperature below 300K.

If heat conduction can't be managed with thermosiphons / heat pipes / cooling loops on the satellite, why would it be possible on earth? Think of a small scale satellite with pyramidal sats roughly h = 3L, but L could be much smaller, do you actually see any issue with heat conduction? scaling up just means placing more of the small pyramidal sats.

alangibson 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Shading does work; JWST does this. However I don't see how you can make it work for satellite data centers. You would constantly be engaging attitude control as you realigned the panels to keep the radiators in shade. You'd run out of thruster fuel so fast you'd get like a month out of each satellite

DoctorOetker 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

attitude control doesn't need to consume propellant, there's reaction wheels.

but you'd rarely ever need it though: it just needs to rotate at a low angular velocity of 1 rotation per year to keep facing the sun.

T-A 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacecraft_attitude_determinat...

DontBreakAlex 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Radiators can only be made as long as desirable because there's gravity for the fluid inside to go back down once it condenses. Even seen those copper heat pipes in your PC radiator?

ginko 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Fluid in heat pipes moves through capillary action.

eldenring 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

these same comments pop up every time someone brings up satellite data-centers where people just assume the only way of dissipating heat is through convection with the environment.

wat10000 6 hours ago | parent [-]

No, we just "assume" (i.e. know) that radiation in a vacuum is a really bad way of dissipating heat, to the point that we use vacuum as a very effective insulator on earth.

Yes, you can overcome this with enough radiator area. Which costs money, and adds weight and space, which costs more money.

Nobody is saying the idea of data centers in space is impossible. It's obviously very possible. But it doesn't make even the slightest bit of economic sense. Everything gets way, way harder and there's no upside.

DoctorOetker 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> No, we just "assume" (i.e. know) that radiation in a vacuum is a really bad way of dissipating heat, to the point that we use vacuum as a very effective insulator on earth.

In space or vacuum radiation is the best way to dissipate heat, since it's the only way.

I believe the reason the common person assumes thermal radiation is a very poor way of shedding heat is because of 2 factoids commonly known:

1. People think they know how a vacuum flask / dewar works.

2. People understand that in earthly conditions (inside a building, or under our atmosphere) thermal radiation is insignificant compared to conduction and convection.

But they don't take into account that:

1) Vacuum flasks / dewars use a vacuum for thermal insulation. Yes and they mirror the glass (emissivity nearer to ~0) precisely because thermal radiation would occur otherwise. They try their best to eliminate thermal radiation, a system optimized to eliminate thermal radiation is not a great example of how to effectively use thermal radiation to conduct heat. The thermal radiation panels would be optimized for emissivity 1, the opposite of whats inside the vacuum flask.

2) In a building or under an atmosphere a room temperature object is in fact shedding heat very quickly by thermal radiation, but so are the walls and other room temperature objects around you, they are reheating you with their thermal radiation. The net effect is small, in these earthly conditions, but in a satellite the temperature of the environment faced by the radiating surfaces is 4K, not a temperature similar to the object you are trying to keep cool.

People take the small net effect of thermal radiation in rooms etc, and the slow heat conduction through a vacuum flasks walls as representative for thermal radiation panels facing cold empty space, which is the mistake.

wat10000 an hour ago | parent [-]

Well no, it’s because conduction/convection into a fluid is so much more effective.

Just look at a car. Maybe half a square meter of “radiator” is enough to dissipate hundreds of kW of heat, because it can dump it into a convenient mass of fluid. That’s way more heat than the ISS’s radiators handle, and three orders of magnitude less area.

Or do a simple experiment at home. Light a match. Hold your finger near it. Then put your finger in the flame. How much faster did the heat transfer when you made contact? Enough to go from feeling mildly warm to causing injury.

DoctorOetker an hour ago | parent [-]

Yes, it's so much more effective, ... at sea level Earthly conditions.

wat10000 an hour ago | parent [-]

What’s more effective: conduction/convection on the ground, or radiation in space?

verzali 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Additional radiator area means bigger spacecraft, implies more challenge with attitude control. Lower down you get more drag so you use propellant to keep yourself up, higher up you have more debris and the large area means you need to frequently manoeuvre to avoid collisions. Making things bigger in space is not trivial! You can't just deploy arbitrarily large panels and expect everything to be fine.

6 hours ago | parent [-]
[deleted]
eldenring 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The radiators would be lighter compared to the solar panels, and slightly smaller surface area so you can line them back to back

I don't think dissipating heat would be an issue at all. The cost of launch I think is the main bottleneck, but cooling would just be a small overhead on the cost of energy. Not a fundamental problem.

lm28469 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

If you solved this problem apply at nasa because they still haven't figured it out.

Either that or your talking out of your ass.

FYI a single modern rack consumes twice the energy of the entire ISS, in a much much much much smaller package and you'll need thousands of them. You'd need 500-1000 sqm of radiator per rack and that alone would weight several tonnes...

You'll also have to actively cool down your gigantic solar panel array

DoctorOetker 2 hours ago | parent [-]

eldenring is slightly wrong: for reasonable temperatures the area of the radiating panels would have to be a bit more than 3 times the area of the solar panel, otherwise theres nothing wrong.

No need to apply at NASA, to the contrary, if you don't believe in Stefan Boltzmann law, feel free to apply for a Nobel prize with your favorite crank theory in physics.

eldenring an hour ago | parent [-]

Whats your definition for reasonable temp? my envelope math tells me at 82 celsius (right before h100s start to throttle) you'd need about 1.5x the surface area for radiators. Not exactly back to back, but even 3x surface area is reasonable.

Also this assumes a flat surface on both sides. Another commenter in this thread brought up a pyramid shape which could work.

Finally, these gpus are design for earth data centers where power is limited and heat sinks are abundant. In the case of space data centers you can imagine we get better radiators or silicon that runs hotter. Crypto miners often run asics very hot.

I just don't understand why every time this topic is brought up, everyone on HN wants to die on the hill that cooling is not possible. It is?? the primary issue if you do the math is clearly the cost of launch.

wat10000 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The pertinent thing is that it’s not an advantage. It may be doable but it’s not easier than cooling a computer in a building.

DoctorOetker 2 hours ago | parent [-]

The distinction is that you don't need to compete for land area, that you don't cause local environmental damage by heating say a river or a lake, that you don't compete with meatbags for energy and heat dissipation rights.

Without eventually moving compute to space we are going to have compute infringe on the space, energy, heat dissipation rights of meatbags. Why welcome that?!?

defrost 2 hours ago | parent [-]

How efficient is thermal radiation through a vacuum again?

Sure, it occurs, but what does the Stefan–Boltzmann law tell us about GPU clusters in space?

DoctorOetker 2 hours ago | parent [-]

> How efficient is thermal radiation through a vacuum again?

I provided the calculation for the pyramidal shape: if the base of a pyramid were a square solar panel with side length L, then for a target temperature of 300K (a typical back of envelope substitute for "room temperature") the height of the pyramid would have to be about 3 times the side length of the square base. Quite reasonable.

> Sure, it occurs, but what does the Stefan–Boltzmann law tell us about GPU clusters in space?

The Stefan-Boltzmann law tells us that whatever prevents us from putting GPU clusters in space, it's not the difficulty in shedding heat by thermal radiation that is supposedly stopping us.

defrost 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Is it the required size of the wings for radiative cooling then?

DoctorOetker 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Just picture a square based pyramid, like a pyramid from egypt, thats the rough shape. Lets pretend the bottom is square. For thermodynamic analysis, we can just pretend the scale is irrelevant, it could be 4 cm x 4 cm base or 4 km x 4 km base. Now stretch the pyramid so the height of the tip is 3 times the length of the sides of the square base, so 12 cm or 12 km in the random examples above.

If the base were a solar panel aimed perpendicular to sun, then the tip is facing away and all side triangles faces of the pyramid are in the shade.

I voluntarily give up heat dissipation area on 2 of the 4 triangular sides (just to make calculations easier, if we make them thermally reflective -emissivity 0-, we can't shed heat, but also don't absorb heat coming from lukewarm Earth).

The remaining 2 triangular sides will be large enough that the temperature of the triangular panels is kept below 300 K.

The panels also serve as the cold heat baths, i.e. the thermal sinks for the compute on board.

Not sure what you mean with wings, I intentionally chose a convex shape like a pyramid so that no part of the surface of the pyramid can see another part of the surface, so no self-obstruction for shedding heat etc...

If this doesn't answer your question, feel free to ask a new question so I understand what your actual question is.

The electrical power available for compute will be approximately 20% (efficiency of solar panels) times the area of the square base L ^ 2 times 1360 W / m ^ 2 .

The electrical power thus scales quadratically with the chosen side length, and thus linearly with the area of the square base.

MuskIsAntidemo 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[dead]

6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
[deleted]
ares623 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

what? the heat is coming from inside the house

DoctorOetker 3 hours ago | parent [-]

which house?