Iowa Electronic Markets still exists. No need to give the commercial prediction markets any leeway.

>the rationalist community seems to have had a longstanding interest in the idea

Easiest way to know its just valueless

It used to be out-of-work firefighters doing it for a paycheque. Now I guess they can collect without leaving the couch.

If you win this bet, does the payout come delivered to your door by the police and fire chief?

I've been in the desert fighting fires for the last 4 months. The news isn't going rampant with the arson stories for reasons (who knows, scaring the public, informing the public, etc).

Open the watchduty app and start looking into how many fires are currently arson suspected/apprehended and how this is the largest national wildfire year we've ever had.

The Dick and Cleetus methheads doing this stuff aren't the brightest and most well informed tech risk takers out there. Most of them will get caught and never get a dime, who the hell knows how why or else they're causing fires, the FBI isn't investigating anyone. They don't tell us WHY an arson occurred. Who knows how many of these apps exist in other markets, etc. The last global wildfire article I saw said either 86 or 96 arsons were arrested. I can't remember if it was France or in Africa.

This is THE strangest wildfire year anyone has had and the news is nowhere.

I'm not the only ex-tech wildland person, plenty of laid off firefighters right now back to their old lives.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/17/climate/betting-wildfires-pol...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/14/arrested-suspi...

Under 1% of the population is not the same as under 1% of people exposed, and if we dramatically increase exposure, we probably will proportionally increase problem gambling. Regardless, this is a good point, this isn’t nearly as high as alcoholism or even drug addiction, I suspect.

You haven't addressed the problem of availability. It's one thing to go to the track physically to bet, vs having the track in your pocket available 24/7 with wagers on literally everything.

Do I think betting addiction will be as bad or prevalent as alcholism? Probably not, yet it's worth considering restricting it for social good. Just like we don't let 13 year olds buy bottles of whiskey.

Right, you could just walk down the street in 1861 and place a bet the way you could walk down the street and buy alcohol.

Wait, no. You couldn't.

I'm pretty sure the real fascists are the ones sending masked thugs to kill people in the streets. Reasonable regulation hardly meets the definition.

People betting online just destroy their families and cast their children into poverty.

And gambling restrictions are hardly fascist. Online sports gambling wasn't legal a scant 10 years ago. Were we living under fascism at that time?

"Sarcasm I now see to be, in general, the language of the Devil; for which reason I have, long since, as good as renounced it."

– Thomas Carlyle, Sartor Resartus, describing how he stopped using sarcasm in his essays because it provokes hostility. He goes on describe the ironic person as a "pest to society."

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I appreciate the libertarian take on this, which works well for high IQ people and people with good self control. It doesn't work for many without those attributes. Unrestrained gambling can ruin lives and families.

I wouldn’t count on your getting any kind of logical reply here. It’s generally all vibes with these people

You want short term trading because you want the prices to be as close to efficient as possible. You may never trade short term but at some point you are going to buy and at some point you are going to sell. Market being far from efficient one would hurt you there. So let them trade and discover price. You don't have to play that game but you still benefit.

The Thalamos link describes a trend from 2023 to 2024. This would not be reflected in a survey from 2022.

It's a lazy argument imo. As corrupt as they might be there is way more money to make in the stock market or bond market if you have insider info. There is little reason for them to go after peanuts in the prediction markets.

Incorrect. Ninth circuit ruled in favor of Nevada State, but earlier this year third circuit ruled in favor of Kalshi. So it's going to the Supreme Court.

All of the above is completely independent from what Congress can or cannot do.

Searched the quote and you neglected to elaborate on how small the number is:

> Health service figures show that from April to September 2024, 1,914 people were treated at NHS gambling clinics. This compares to the previous financial year when a total of 1,389 patients were cared for. In 2022-23 this number was 1,013, and in 2020-21 it was 775 patients.

I get that you're probably trying to make a point that it's bad for everyone in general, but the US is on a completely different level of societal corruption from all of this.

Likely an Amerocentric comment, yes, that assumes gambling can only be as destructive and predatory as it is in the US. I don't know anything about how it works in the UK but it's plausible to me that it's not as harmful a force there, as you say.