Do you have any sources for this? My understanding is that all of the discussion about prediction market wildfires are completely speculative, nobody has actually started a wildfire for a prediction market payout yet.

It used to be out-of-work firefighters doing it for a paycheque. Now I guess they can collect without leaving the couch.

If you win this bet, does the payout come delivered to your door by the police and fire chief?

I've been in the desert fighting fires for the last 4 months. The news isn't going rampant with the arson stories for reasons (who knows, scaring the public, informing the public, etc).

Open the watchduty app and start looking into how many fires are currently arson suspected/apprehended and how this is the largest national wildfire year we've ever had.

The Dick and Cleetus methheads doing this stuff aren't the brightest and most well informed tech risk takers out there. Most of them will get caught and never get a dime, who the hell knows how why or else they're causing fires, the FBI isn't investigating anyone. They don't tell us WHY an arson occurred. Who knows how many of these apps exist in other markets, etc. The last global wildfire article I saw said either 86 or 96 arsons were arrested. I can't remember if it was France or in Africa.

This is THE strangest wildfire year anyone has had and the news is nowhere.

I'm not the only ex-tech wildland person, plenty of laid off firefighters right now back to their old lives.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/17/climate/betting-wildfires-pol...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/14/arrested-suspi...