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Sub-$200 Lidar could reshuffle auto sensor economics(spectrum.ieee.org)
118 points by mhb 4 days ago | 123 comments
zelphirkalt 12 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Since lidar has distance information and cameras do not, it was always a ridiculous idea by a certain company to use cameras only. Lidar using cars are going to replace at least the ones that don't make use of this obvious answer to obstacle detection challenges.

zemvpferreira 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The mind salivates at the idea of sub-$100 and soon after sub-$10 Lidar. We could build spatial awareness into damn near everything. It'll be a cambrian explosion of autonomous robots.

esskay an hour ago | parent | next [-]

RIP to every single camera in existence if that happens. Lidar is awful with damaging camera lenses.

hinoki an hour ago | parent | next [-]

I had to look this up, because I had never heard of it. How could a lens be damaged by infrared lasers?

It turns out it’s the sensors that are easily damaged by high powered lidar lasers.

https://spectrum.ieee.org/amp/keeping-lidars-from-zapping-ca...

pedro_caetano 38 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Is there any deeper study on long term effects regarding retinal damage?

I would imagine, even with safe dosages, there would be some form of cumulative effect in terms of retinal phototoxicity.

More so if we consider the scenario that this becomes a standard COTS feature in cars and we are walking around a city centre with a fleet of hundreds of thousands of these laser sources.

eurekin 35 minutes ago | parent [-]

Some lidar units simply use the wavelength that the human eye is opaque to.

The grandparent comment is about camera lenses with little to no near infrared cutoff filter. Some older iPhones were like that and that was the original breaking story.

IsTom 27 minutes ago | parent [-]

> human eye is opaque to

Absorbing the laser isn't necessarily any good. Very hypothetically it could lead to cataracts.

eurekin 2 minutes ago | parent [-]

Sun emits much stronger IR, near-IR, UV

lencastre a minute ago | parent | prev | next [-]

TIL!

Thanks! What a headache

ladberg 40 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

iPhones have had lidar for years, have cameras been affected?

KoolKat23 39 minutes ago | parent [-]

Other cameras. When the lidar laser points at the camera sensor.

Ringz an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

What? Please explain!

natch 37 minutes ago | parent [-]

Sensor damage

https://youtube.com/shorts/oeHtfMFdzIY?si=hpLBgqom_kHVPuhL

moffkalast 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

There are already very good sub-$100 lidars, especially for 2D since they were made en masse for vacuum cleaners. E.g. the LD19 or STL-19P as they're calling it now for some reason. You need to pair them with serious compute to run AMCL with them, plus actuation (though ST3215s are cheap and easy to integrate now too) and control for that actuation which also wants its own compute, plus a battery, etc. the costs quickly add up. Robotics is expensive regardless of how cheap components get.

oblio 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

And, I guess, even more advanced surveillance.

zemvpferreira 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I think we’re well past the point where mass surveillance was a technical challenge. Mass oppression through autonomous violence however…

lonelyasacloud 31 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimus_(robot)

ben_w an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Even back when Snowden was current news, we'd reached the point where laser microphones could cover every window in London for a bill of materials* less than the annual budget of London's police force.

* I have no way to estimate installation costs, but smartphones show that manufacturing at this scale doesn't need to increase total cost 10x more than the B.o.M.

rfv6723 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Humanity has never known a world without surveillance. Responsibility cannot exist without being watched. Primitive tribes lived under the constant eye of the group, and agricultural eras relied on the strict oversight of the clan. Modern states simply adopted new tools for an ancient necessity. A society without monitoring is a society without accountability, which only leads to the Hobbesian trap of endless conflict.

zorked an hour ago | parent [-]

That's an incredibly bullshit argument to defend the indefensible.

rfv6723 30 minutes ago | parent [-]

Your reaction actually proves the point. Aggression thrives in anonymous spaces because the lack of oversight removes the weight of accountability. When people feel unobserved, they quickly abandon the social friction that once held tribes and clans together. You are essentially providing a live demonstration of why a society without any form of monitoring inevitably slides into the Hobbesian trap.

squigz 9 minutes ago | parent [-]

I don't think a random internet comment proves anything about society at large.

People don't hesitate to be aggressive even when they're not anonymous and there's a threat of accountability - see, all crime, or people just acting shitty toward others.

Mass surveillance does not cause everyone to magically get along.

pu_pe 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

LIDAR would be preferrable to cameras when it comes to privacy actually

KaiserPro 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I don't think it makes a difference. Dense lidar goes you more information than 2d colour imagery.

There are SLAM cameras that only select "interesting" points, which are privacy preserving. They are also very low power.

clayhacks 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I’d definitely feel much better if most cameras in the world were replaced by LIDAR. I feel like it would be much tougher to have a flawless facial recognition program with LIDAR alone

adrianN 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Who needs facial recognition if you can identify people based on gait?

0x3f an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Gait recognition is almost entirely hype. Sure it works to tell the difference between n = 10 people but so what, you can tell the difference between a group of 10 people by what kind of shoes they are wearing.

vntok an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Judicial systems where a 6% error rate is deemed way too high to lead to a conviction.

echelon 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The minute internet became widespread it was game over.

Pros and cons. :/

It'll never happen, but we need a bill of rights for privacy. The laypeople aren't well-versed or pained enough to ask for this, and big interest donors oppose it.

Maybe the EU and states like California will pioneer something here, though?

Edit: in general, I'm far more excited by cheap lidar tech than I am afraid of the downsides. We just need to be vigilant.

chha 2 hours ago | parent [-]

The EU already has. GDPR and the AI Act puts a lot of limits on what you can do in the open space, although it doesn't always go far enough.

jonplackett 2 hours ago | parent [-]

And barely gets enforced

StopDisinfo910 2 hours ago | parent [-]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GDPR_fines_and_notices

Top 5 fines:

1 - Meta - Ireland - €1.2 billion

2 - Amazon Europe - Luxembourg - €746 millions

3 - WhatsApp - Ireland - €225 millions

4 - British Airway - UK - £183 millions

5 - Google - France - €60 millions

I wish every law barely got enforced this way.

Zanfa an hour ago | parent | next [-]

I'd say the numbers listed here prove the GPs point of poor enforcement. The largest fine is roughly 0.97% of Meta's 2023 revenue, the equivalent of a $600 fine for somebody making 60k / year. It's a tiny-tiny cost of doing business at best, definitely not a deterrent, given Meta's blatant disregard for GDPR since then.

Mordisquitos 6 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

> the equivalent of a $600 fine for somebody making 60k / year

I don't know about you, but on that income I would certainly not brush off such a fine as a "cost of doing business". Would it cause me financial trouble, or would it force me to sacrifice other expenses? Absolutely not. But would I feel frustrated at having to pay it, feel stupid for my mistake, and do my best to avoid it in the future? Absolutely yes.

StopDisinfo910 an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

1% of Meta's global revenue is a tiny-tiny cost of doing business? At that point, I think I can stop even trying to argue here. It's a massive fine any way you put it. Especially when you consider the ceiling hasn't been reached and non compliance is more and more costly by design.

Zanfa 20 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

It's not even 1% of their annual revenue, let alone the entire multi year period they've been in breach before and since. It's nothing to them.

KoolKat23 33 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

Their net profit was $60billion in 2024. This is peanuts. It can fluctuate by multiples of this fine in a month, depending on whether or not they've had a bad or good month, nevermind year. This pretty much is just a cost of doing business.

throawayonthe an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

pretty pathetic, but people keep insisting you can regulate capital

small_model 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

'MicroVision says its sensor could one day break the $100 barrier'. When an article says one day, read not in the next decade.

Fricken 28 minutes ago | parent [-]

Around a decade ago the nascent LIDAR industry boomed and dozens of startups emerged out of nowhere all racing to make cheap automotive grade LIDAR, and here we are.

Of course MicroVisiom is only claiming their LIDAR to be suitable for advanced driver assist, but ADAS encompasses a wide array of capabilities: basically everything between cruise control and robotaxis, so there's no definition of how much LIDAR you need to do the job, just however much you feel like. Tesla feels like none at all.

epolanski 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Microvision has been saying that from half a decade, products? Nowhere to be found.

michaelt 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Interestingly, there have been people in the LIDAR industry predicting costs like this for many years. I heard numbers like $250 per vehicle back in 2012 [1]

Of course, ambitious pricing like this is all about economies of scale - sensors that are used in production vehicles are ordered by the million, and that lowers the costs massively. When the huge orders didn't materialise, the economies of scale and low prices didn't materialise either.

[1] https://web.archive.org/web/20161013165833/http://content.us...

small_model 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Also 'Luminar Technologies, a prominent U.S. lidar manufacturer, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in December 2025' LIDAR is useful in a small set of scenarios (calibration and validation) but do not bet the farm on it or make it the centre piece of your sensor suite.

schiffern an hour ago | parent | next [-]

The same Luminar from the Mark Rober video?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2025/03/17/youtub...

UltraSane an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This is very wrong. LIDAR scanners have revolutionized surveying by enabling rapid, high-precision 3D mapping of terrain and infrastructure, capturing millions of data points per second. LIDAR can penetrate dense vegetation, allowing accurate, ground-level, mapping in forested or obstructed areas. Drone mounted LIDAR has become very popular. Tripod mounted LIDAR scanners are very commonly used on construction sites. Handhels LIDAR scanners can map the inside of buildings with incredible accuracy. This is very commonly used to create digital twins of factories.

jcattle 39 minutes ago | parent [-]

And none of this is on the order of magnitude that consumer automotive would have.

The EU requires every new car to have Autonomos Emergency Braking. If LiDAR becomes cheaper than radar, this is a potential market of millions.

UltraSane 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Lidar is critical for any autonomous vehicle. It turns out a very accurate 3D point cloud of the environment is very useful for self driving. Crazy, I know.

servo_sausage an hour ago | parent [-]

Useful but not at all required. Camera + radar is sufficient for driving, and camera+ USS is fine for parking.

Radar is just cheaper than the number of cameras and compute, it's also not really a strict requirement.

Look at how the current cars fuck up, it's mostly navigation, context understanding, and tight manoeuvres. Lidar gives you very little in these areas

UltraSane an hour ago | parent [-]

All of the actually WORKING self driving systems use LIDAR. This is not a coincidence.

small_model an hour ago | parent [-]

Like Waymo? (https://dmnews.co.uk/waymo-robotaxi-spotted-unable-to-cross-...) 17 years after betting the farm on LIDAR the solution fails to navigate a puddle. Sorry but they bet on the wrong technology, Tesla has overtaken them with multi camera and NN solution.

cheema33 44 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

> Tesla has overtaken them with multi camera and NN solution.

Let me guess, you heard this from Elon?

UltraSane an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Your conclusion from a single incident is a bad inference. One vehicle getting confused by a puddle (likely a sensor fusion edge case or mapping artifact, not a fundamental LIDAR failure) doesn't indict the technology. Tesla's cameras have produces vastly more failures.

Waymo has driven tens of millions of autonomous miles with a serious injury/fatality rate dramatically lower than human drivers. The actual data shows the technology works. Tesla FSD still requires active driver supervision and is not legally or technically a robotaxi system. Comparing them as if they're at parity is wrong.

LIDAR gives direct metric depth with no inference required. Camera-only systems must infer depth from 2D images using neural networks, which introduces failure modes LIDAR doesn't have. Radar is very valuable when LIDAR and cameras give ambiguous data.

What metrics has Telsa overtaken Waymo? Deployed robotaxi revenue miles? No. Disengagement rates? No published comparable data. Safety per mile in driverless operation? No.

small_model 40 minutes ago | parent [-]

A Tesla wouldn't stop for a puddle. Also its not locked to a small geofenced area (people have driven coast to coast without a single intervention on FSD including parking spot to parking spot) when I can buy a Waymo vehicle that does this then Waymo would have caught up with Tesla.

UltraSane a minute ago | parent | next [-]

Your puddle example is utterly irrelevant. Robotaxis are very much locked to tiny conferenced areas.

"people have driven coast to coast without a single intervention on FSD including parking spot to parking spot"

I find this claim very dubious. Prove it. Teslas never drive empty for a very good reason.

jamespo 7 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

Wow, so it can cope with driving on the highway. That's the easy part.

keyKeeper an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

There are laser measurers sold for a few buck on Temu. Robot vacuums sold for few hundred dollars have Lidars that map out the room in a seconds.

Is there any actual technical reason why automobile Lidar be expensive? Just combine visual processing with single point sampler that will feed points of interest and accurate model of the surroundings will be built.

echoangle 29 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Probably one factor is range. The article talks about 200-300m range, a robot vacuum has maybe 10m best case?

keyKeeper 27 minutes ago | parent [-]

For example this one has 120m range with 1cm accuracy and its 15 euros: https://www.temu.com/bg-en/-digital-laser-distance-meter-50m...

qznc 42 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I know that automotive parts of the standard requirement to withstand 80°C (or 120°C for military use). A robot vacuum working in a living room can probably be made cheaper because it does not have to face as harsh environments?

Also, range is probably a factor. In a living room, you probably need something like 20m max. You car should "see" farther.

keyKeeper 28 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Sure, these are the assumptions but silicon is silicon, copper is copper and solder is solder. They don't use easy melting electronics in vacuums and hardened stuff in cars, the tech is about the same unless it is supposed to work in highly radioactive environment. The plastics are different but car interiors are full of plastics, so its unlikely that the costs of temperature resistant plastics needed for this is more than a cupholder.

As for the range, again pretty powerful lasers are sold for sub 10SUD prices on retail. I am sure that there must be higher calibration and precision requirements as the distance increase but is it really order of magnitudes higher? 120 meters laser measurer with 1cm accuracy is 15 Euros on Temu and that thing has an LCD screen and a battery as a handheld device. How much distance do you actually need?

foepys 39 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

Not only that but vibrations play a big part as well, especially on ICE vehicles.

keyKeeper 25 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Vibrations are surely an issue with electromechanical systems but hardly with electronics. There are plenty of cheap electronic accessories for cars and you can observe that those keep functioning for years.

whatsupdog 9 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

Please keep politics out of it.

GRiMe2D 3 minutes ago | parent [-]

ICE = internal combustion engine

xavortm 27 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

to add to the rest of the comments, a reliability standard also adds on cost. The scale is different, but compare a car bolt vs manned space mission craft's bolt.

BenoitP 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> laser pulses

> phased-array

I'm not well versed into RF physics. I had the feeling that light-wave coherency in lasers had to be created at a single source (or amplified as it passes by). That's the first time I hear about phased-array lasers.

Can someone knowledgeable chime in on this?

MayeulC 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The beam is split and re-emitted in multiple points. By controlling the optical length (refractive index, or just the length of the waveguide by using optical junctions) of the path that leads to each emitter, the phase can be adjusted.

In practice, this can be done with phase change materials (heat/cool materials to change their index), or micro ring resonators (to divert light from one wave guide to another).

The beam then self-interferes, and the resulting interference pattern (constructive/destructive depending on the direction) are used to modulate the beam orientation.

You are right that a single source is needed, though I imagine that you can also use a laser source and shine it at another "pumped" material to have it emit more coherent light.

I've been thinking about possible use-cases for this technology besides LIDAR,. Point to point laser communication could be an interesting application: satellite-to-satellite communication, or drone-to-drone in high-EMI settings (battlefield with jammers). This would make mounting laser designators on small drones a lot easier. Here you go, free startup ideas ;)

rich_sasha 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

In principle, as the sibling comment says, you could measure just the phase difference on the receiver end. The trick is that it's much harder for light frequencies than radar. I'm non even sure we can measure the phase etc of a light beam, and if we could, the Nyquist frequency is incredibly high - 2x frequency takes us to PHz frequencies.

There might be something cute you can do with interference patterns but no idea about that. We do sort of similar things with astronomic observations.

ptero 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Not an expert, but main challenges with laser coherency are present when shaping the output using multiple transmitters.

For lidar you transmit a pulse from a single source and receive its reflection at multiple points. Mentioning phased array with lidar almost always means receiving.

iceyest 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

A phased array is an antenna composed of multiple smaller antennas within the same plane that can constructively/destructively aim its radio beam within any direction it is facing. I'm no radio engineer but I think it works via an interference pattern being strongest in the direction you want the beam aimed. This is mostly used in radar arrays though I suppose it could work with light too since it is also a wave.

orliesaurus 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Interesting to see the cost curve drop ... this always changes the market.

I have been watching the sensor space for a while. Cheap LIDAR units could open up weird DIY uses and not just cars. ALSO regulatory and mapping integration will matter. I tried to work with public datasets and it's messy. The hardware is only one part! BUT it's exciting to see multiple vendors in the space. Competition might push vendors to refine the software stack as well as the hardware. HOWEVER I'm keeping an eye on how these systems handle edge cases in bad weather. I don't think we have seen enough data yet...

michaelt 2 hours ago | parent [-]

> Cheap LIDAR units could open up weird DIY uses and not just cars.

Interestingly, there are already some comparatively cheap LIDAR units on the market.

In the automotive market, ideally you need a 200m+ range (or whatever the stopping distance of your vehicle is) and you need to operate in bright direct sunlight (good luck making an eye-safe laser that doesn't get washed out by the sun) and you need more than one scanning plane (for when the car goes over bumps).

On the other hand, for indoor robotics where a 10m range is enough and there's much less direct sunlight? Your local robotics stockist probably already has something <$400

IanCal an hour ago | parent [-]

Sounds like the quality isn't all that great but LD06 sensors look like they're about $20 and someone who works on libraries about this suggested the STL27L which seems to be about $160 and here's an outdoor scan from it: https://sketchfab.com/3d-models/pidar-scan-240901-0647-7997b...

Not sure if the ld06 is a scanner like this or if it's just a line (like you'd use for a cheaper robot vac).

jdhendrickson 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

@dang .... do these comments seem organic to you? old accounts with almost zero karma going out of their way to use the same verbiage to compliment waymo 18 minutes after an article gets posted? .... dead internet at work.

tomhow 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Please don't post like this. If you suspect something, please email us (hn@ycombinator.com) with links to specific comments. The guidelines are clear abut this:

Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, brigading, foreign agents, and the like. It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. If you're worried about abuse, email hn@ycombinator.com and we'll look at the data.

small_model 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Anytime a Tesla or Elon related article is posted it gets a barrage of negative comments usually FUD like. Any neutral or positive comment gets downvoted heavily. Bit suspicious to say the least, very clear pattern, they are not doing it very well should be a bit more nuanced.

notTooFarGone 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Or everyone is just tired of tesla and their stubborn camera only tech that will fail in higher autonomy cases?

No no it's the cabal...

tomhow 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

There is no evidence of any such organised campaign. The critical comments we see against that company and person are generally from known, established HN users, and align with frequently-expressed sentiments among the general public. And the complaint is just as often made that "anything remotely critical" about that company and person is flagged. If posts about the topic are being downvoted and flagged, it's mostly because that person and company are in the news so frequently that most commentary about them is repetitive, sensationalist and uninteresting, and thus off topic for HN.

Barbing an hour ago | parent [-]

What a great website. Thanks for the data! And good work

ant6n 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Could be lurkers triggered

tonetegeatinst an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Radar is extremely expensive, and lifar is just below that.

Glad to see someone lowering the cost of this technology, and hope to see lots of engineers using this tech as a result.

We might even see a boom in LIDAR tech as a result

formerly_proven an hour ago | parent [-]

What makes you say radar is extremely expensive? Virtually every car from the last decade has at least one, many have two or more. They’re barely more than a PCB and a radar ASIC.

pbmonster 13 minutes ago | parent [-]

If you want to compete with LIDAR, you need high resolution 4D (range, velocity, azimuth, and height) RADAR. Those are usually phased arrays with expensive phase sensitive electronics, and behind that a chip that can do a lot of Fourier transforms very quickly.

The cheap RADAR devices you're talking about usually only output range and velocity, sometimes for a handful of rather large azimuth slices. That doesn't compete with LIDAR at all.

brador 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Is this Human safe at these volumes? There was a time you could get your feet sized by putting them into an X-ray box at the shoe store. Removed from stores once the harm was known.

thegeek108 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

What is this author even doing with these numbers?

colechristensen 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

can I buy it on digikey yet?

speedgoose 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

How could I buy one?

fragmede 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It might, but comma.ai proves that lidar is red herring, which is further supported by the fact that Waymo are able to drive vision-only if necessary.

KaiserPro 2 hours ago | parent [-]

> comma.ai proves that lidar is red herring

I mean it doesn't. If you actually look at it comma.ai proves that level two doesn't require lidar. Thats not the same as full speed safe autonomy.

whilst it is possible to drive vision only (assuming the right array of cameras (ie not the way tesla have done it) lidar gives you a low latency source of depth that can correct vision mistakes. Its also much less energy intensive to work out if an object is dangerous, and on a collision course.

To do that in vision, you need to work out what the object is (ie is it a shadow) then you have to triangulate it. That requires continuous camera calibration, and is all that easy. If you have a depth "prior" ie, yes its real, yes its large and yes its going to collide, its much much more simple to use vision to work out what to do.

fragmede 2 hours ago | parent [-]

It's fair to point out that comma.ai is SAE level two system, however it's not geofenced at all, which is an SAE level 5 requirement. But really that brings up the fact that SAE's levels aren't the right ones, merely the ones they chose to define since they're the standards body. A better set of levels are the seven I go into more detail about on my blog.

As far as distinguishing shadows on the road, that's what radar is for. Shadows on the road as seen by the vision system don't show up on radar as something the vehicle will run into.

imtringued 9 minutes ago | parent [-]

Your autonomy scale is pretty arbitrary and encodes assumptions about the underlying technology and environments the vehicle is supposed to implement and operate in.

The SAE autonomy scale is about dividing responsibility between the driver and the assistance system. The lowest revel represents full responsibility on the driver and the highest level represents full responsibility on the system.

If there is a geofenced transportation system like the Vegas loop and the cars can drive without a human driver, then that is a level 5 system. By the way, geofencing is not an "SAE level 5" requirement. Geofencing is a tool to make it easier to reach requirements by reducing the scope of what full autonomy represents.

bjrobz 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I saw a Waymo in Seattle, today. If Waymo can get Seattle right, that gives me a lot of confidence that their stack is very capable of difficult road conditions.

Note: I have not had the pleasure of riding in one yet, but from what my friend in SJ says, it’s very convenient and confidence-inspiring.

geminiboy 3 hours ago | parent [-]

I have had the pleasure of riding a few times in SanFrancisco.

The drive was delightful and felt really safe. It handled the SF terrain, traffic and mixed traffic like trams very well.

I wouldnt trust a self driving tesla ( or any camera only systems) though!

rediguanayum 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I took the Waymo from San Jose airport to home on the peninsula. It took the 101 highway back for the most part, driving very conservatively at 65-55 mph, and in the right most lane. It still has a few quirks though. When there aren't any cars around it will speed up to 65 mph, but at on-ramps, it will slow down to 55 and then speed up once past. It will get stuck behind slow drivers being in the right most lane and patiently follow them a few car length behind them. On the plus side, the lidar stack field of view as shown on the internal display seems to see pretty far down the highway.

small_model 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Why wouldn't you trust a Telsa, millions of people let there Tesla drive them all over USA (not geofences like Waymo) without touching the wheel from parking spot to parking spot everyday. Have you tried it?

cheema33 36 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

> Why wouldn't you trust a Telsa, millions of people let there Tesla drive them all over USA (not geofences like Waymo)

I own a Tesla and paid about $10K for the full self driving capability a few years ago. Yeah, I would not trust a Tesla to drive me from airport to my house. There is a reason Tesla is still stuck at level 2 autonomy certification and not 3, 4 or 5.

lccerina 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Maybe because of the multiple investigations Tesla has currently due to crashes, deaths, injuries, etc. all caused by "whoops our cameras were fooled by some glare/fog and accelerated into a truck/pole"

small_model 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Those are mainly autopilot which people conflate with FSD, and high percentage are human caused accidents (auto pilot requires full attention and driver is liable).

Gigachad an hour ago | parent [-]

Why does Tesla ship a feature called "autopilot" which kills you if you use it instead of "FSD"?

simondotau an hour ago | parent [-]

Autopilot is Tesla’s brand name for adaptive cruise control with lane centering. This is a common feature available on a wide range of vehicles from nearly every major manufacturer, though marketed under different names (e.g., ProPilot, BlueCruise).

Drivers can and do misuse adaptive cruise control systems, sometimes with fatal consequences. Memes aside, there is no strong evidence that fatal misuse occurs more frequently by owners of Tesla cars than with comparable systems from other brands.

This perception reflects the Baader–Meinhof phenomenon, more commonly known as the frequency illusion. Nobody is collecting statistics for other brands, so it’s assumed the phenomenon doesn’t occur.

A similar pattern occurred with media coverage of EV fires. Except in this case, good statistics exist which prove the opposite: ICE vehicles catch fire more often than EVs.

notTooFarGone 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Because it is not real autonomous driving? Being liable for software that you can neither verify nor trust is THE dealbreaker. Once Tesla says "We are liable for all accidents with FSD" with higher level autonomous driving this game changes. But Waymo is just way more reliable.

the_real_cher 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Tesla doesnt have Lidar?

eptcyka 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

No. They don't even have radar, camera is all you need, as per Elon.

disillusioned 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Even more fury-inducing, they don't even have ultrasonic parking sensors on cars that have ultrasonic parking sensors. They disabled them to move to a vision-only stack that is no where near as accurate or as good and which categorically cannot tell a difference in ground truth has occurred in its blind spot. But hey, all _people_ need are two cameras, right?

aaronbrethorst 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

hooboy, https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...

dnlserrano 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

will Musk backtrack on the whole CV enough, that's how humans do it if price becomes this low?

joe_mamba an hour ago | parent [-]

To be fair, Musk was only parroting what Karpathy was telling him so you should ask him how self driving cars are supposed to work with CV only.

khafra 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Oh hell yeah, we can finally stop the braindead attempts to make a safe self-driving car with just cameras.

KeplerBoy 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Tesla actually re-introduced radar sensors in HW4. https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-hardware-4-hd-radar-first-lo...

They might not use them for autopilot, but maybe for some emergency braking stuff, when everything else failed.

throwaway473825 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Is there anyone using only cameras except Tesla?

simondotau 39 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Xpeng, Wayne, aiMotive to name three. Probably many others, who claim to use LIDAR but don’t actually rely on it. Because LIDAR is perceived as a prerequisite for autonomous safety, admitting to not needing it is a bad PR move — for now.

Betelbuddy 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Nope...

small_model 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Yes, silly using just cameras, I mean humans have Lidar sensors, that why they can drive, why didn't new just copy that....oh wait.

It all seriousness though, Tesla are producing cyber cabs now which are 10th the price of Waymo's and can drive autonomously anywhere in the world. I think we can see where this is going. (Hint: not well for Waymo)

Also the article is speculative 'MicroVision says its sensor could one day break the $100 barrier'. One day...

KaiserPro 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> Tesla are producing cyber cabs now which are 10th the price of Waymo's and can drive autonomously anywhere in the world.

Wait what? when did they actually enter mass production?

> I mean humans have Lidar sensors

Real time slam is actually pretty good, the hard part is reliable object detection using just vision. Tesla's forward facing cameras are effectively monocular, which means that its much much harder to get depth (its not impossible but moving objects are much more difficult to observe if you only have cameras aligned on the same plane with no real parallax)

Ultimately Musk is right, you probably don't need lidar to drive safely. but its far more simple and easier to do if you have Lidar. Its also safer. Musk said "lidars are a crutch", not because he is some sort of genius, Its obvious that SLAM only driving is the way forward since the mid 00's (of not earlier). The reason he said it is because he thought he could save money not having lidar. The problem for him is that he didn't do the research to see how far away proper machine perception is to account for the last 1% in accuracy needed to make vision only safe and reliable.

shawabawa3 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Tesla are producing cyber cabs now which are 10th the price of Waymo's and can drive autonomously anywhere in the world.

My understanding is that cyber cabs still need safety drivers to operate, is that not the case?

orwin an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Yes, but they are useless, they can't steer, hence why they have more accidents than humans per driven miles.

small_model 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

They have no steering wheel or pedals so no

lccerina 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Humans also don't have wheels, but we build objects with wheels. It is as if we can build objects that don't resemble humans for specific purposes. Crazy...

cheema33 31 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Yes, silly using just cameras, I mean humans have Lidar sensors, that why they can drive, why didn't new just copy that....oh wait.

Humans don't have wheels and cannot go 70MPH. Humans also don't have rear view cameras and cannot process video feeds from 8 cameras simultaneously. The point of these machines is to be better than humans for transportation. If adding LIDAR means that these vehicles can see better than humans and avoid accidents that humans do get into, then I for one want them in my vehicle.

disillusioned 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This is a weirdly tired counterpoint that Elon and Elonstans like to bandy about as if it's an apples to apples comparison. Humans have a weirdly ultra-high-dynamic-range binocular vision system mounted on an advanced ptz/swivel gimbal that allows for a great degree of freedom of movement, parallax effects, and a complex heuristic system for analyzing vision data.

The Tesla FSD system has... well, sure, a few more cameras, but they're low resolution, and in inconveniently fixed locations.

My alley has an occlusion at the corner where it connects to the main road: a very tall, very ample bush that basically makes it impossible to authoritatively check oncoming traffic to my left. I, a human, can determine that if I see the light flicker even slightly as it filters through the bushes, that the path is not clear: a car is likely causing that very slight change in light. My Tesla has no clue at all that that's happening. And worse, the perpendicular camera responsible for checking cross-traffic is mounted _behind my head_ on the b-pillar, in a fixed location that means that without nosing my car _into_ the travel lane, there is literally no way for it to be sure the path is clear.

This edge case is navigated near-perfectly by Waymo, since its roof-mounted lidar can see above and beyond the bush and determine that the path is clear. And to hit back on the "Tesla is making cheaper cars that can drive autonomously anywhere in the world": I mean, they still aren't? Not authoritatively. Not authoritatively enough that they aren't seeing all sorts of interventions in the few "driverless" trials they're doing in Austin. Not authoritatively enough when I have my Tesla FSD to glory. It works well enough on the fat part of the bell curve, but those edges will get you, and a vision only system means that it is extremely brittle in certain conditions and with certain failure modes, that a lidar/radar backup help _enhance_.

Moreover, Waymo has brought lidar development in-house, they're working to dramatically reduce their vehicle platform cost by reducing some redundant sensors, and they can now simulate a ground truth model of an absurd number of edge cases and odd scenarios, as well as simulate different conditions for real-world locations in parallel with their new world modeling systems.

None of which reads to me as "not going well for Waymo." Waymo completes over 450,000 fully autonomous rides per week right now. They're dramatically lowering their own barriers to new cities/geographies/conditions, and they're pushing down the cost per unit substantially. Yeah, it won't get to be as cheap as Tesla owning the entire means of production, but I'm still extremely bullish on Waymo being the frontrunner for autonomous driving for the foreseeable future.

small_model 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Waymos are still making lots of errors that a human wouldn't (Stopping in middle of a road due to a puddle was a recent one https://dmnews.co.uk/waymo-robotaxi-spotted-unable-to-cross-...) 17 years after betting on LIDAR, I think Tesla is ahead now in most respects. It's could be wrong though we will probably know by the end of this year.

cheema33 28 minutes ago | parent [-]

> I think Tesla is ahead now in most respects

Do you actually own a Tesla? I do. With FSD. And let me assure you, you are very wrong.

khafra an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Humans cannot drive safely. Human drivers kill someone every 26 seconds. Waymos have never killed a person.

Part of that is that humans are distractible, and their performance can be degraded in many ways, and that silicon thinks faster than meat.

But part of it is the sensor suite. Look at Waymo vs Tesla robotaxi accident rates.