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RevEng 12 hours ago

I was with the author on everything except one point: increasing automation will not leave us with such abundance that we never have to work again. We have heard that lie for over a century. The stream engine didn't do it, electricity didn't do it, computers didn't do it, the Internet didn't do it, and AI won't either. The truth is that as input costs drop, sales prices drop and demand increases - just like the paradox they referred to. However, it also tends to come with a major shift in wealth since in the short term the owners of the machines are producing more with less. As it becomes more common place and prices change they lose much of that advantage, but the workers never get that.

zozbot234 11 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> I was with the author on everything except one point: increasing automation will not leave us with such abundance that we never have to work again.

That's because we prefer improved living standards over less work. If we only had to live by the standards of one century ago or more, we could likely accomplish that by working very little.

anonzzzies 14 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

> we could likely accomplish that by working very little

Yeah I know many people who do in the small town I live in. Mostly elderly who are used to it still, but also some young people who want to work just enough to buy what they need and not 1 minute more. I could've retired at <20 if I would've enjoyed that. Now I enjoy it more; it's kind of relaxing that kind of lifestyle; not because of not working but because of needing nothing outside your humble possessions.

Gigachad 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

What is interesting is the new things are cheap while the old stuff is now expensive. Average house in Australia is $1,000,000 while a TV is $500. The internet, social media, etc are cheap. Having someone repair your shoes is expensive.

cbdevidal 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Automation made the TV inexpensive, but if you look at a chart on inflation almost everything that cannot be easily automated has risen in price.

https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/cpichart2019-...

tshaddox 9 hours ago | parent [-]

Surely U.S. housing was not twice as automatable 12-13 years ago as it is now.

cbdevidal 8 hours ago | parent [-]

No, that rose in price for different reasons

alchemism 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

As predicted in The Diamond Age.

next_xibalba 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Economies of scale were realized in the tv, but not the house. Maybe bc they aren’t realizable in housing, maybe bc regulation, maybe bc of the nimby veto, etc.

tudorconstantin 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I think it’s rather because of scarcity: you can’t scale and automate land/prime-location land

jama211 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Well you can scale it, which is why housing affordability is higher in many places where the cities are actually far denser than Australia. There are perverse incentives not to though, property prices don’t rise (which is what investors want) if you actually focus on increasing supply.

itake 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

People are building houses with way more features, that last longer, have better thermoregulation, and just more comfortable to live in.

kelipso 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Same goes for TVs too. That’s clearly not the reason why house prices rose so drastically.

Der_Einzige 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Good quality Goodyear welted boots, adjusted for inflation, are cheap AF. I can get an excellent pair from Grant stone with horween leather for ~300 USD when on sale.

A pair of Nike jordans or air maxes is often in the ~120 range and made of far inferior materials.

Boots have never been cheaper/accessible before. The people that bring up repairable shoes don’t wear them or buy from shit brands like Thursday, doc martins, or timberland. You deserve your poor quality footwear.

Gigachad 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Brand new boots are cheap because some child in a 3rd world country makes them. Having them repaired in my country costs enough to generally make it worth getting new ones.

Der_Einzige 3 hours ago | parent [-]

[flagged]

coldtea 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

>That's because we prefer improved living standards over less work

That's more because we are never given the chance. We only get to keep working or fall of the rat race and at best be delegated to Big Lebowski style pariah existance.

marsten 22 minutes ago | parent [-]

Yes, and housing is priced by competitive auction so if you drop out of the rat race and other people don't, you'll just get out-bid.

rnewme 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Have you seen the land prices

zozbot234 9 hours ago | parent [-]

What land prices? There's plenty of cheap land, it's just a bit far away from where most people live. But guess what, population densities were also lower a century ago.

tshaddox 9 hours ago | parent [-]

Sure, just like less desirable products of every category cost less essentially by definition. But that’s not really a retort to someone asking by why land prices have risen so much.

ipaddr 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Population increases through immigration or birth and the area (a city) staying the same size. Plus covid people valuing a house more.

paulddraper 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Exactly.

Living quarters, transportation, healthcare, food. What were theses figures in 1926, and how much work is needed to achieve them.

SecretDreams 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> That's because we prefer improved living standards over less work. If we only had to live by the standards of one century ago or more, we could likely accomplish that by working very little.

Is that trend still true? I can look from the 50s to 2000s and buy into it. I'm not clear it is holding true by all metrics beyond the 2000s, and especially beyond maybe the 2020s. Yes, we have better tech, but is life actually better right now? I think you could make the argument that we were in a healthier and happier society in that sweet spot from 95 - 2005 or so. At least in NA.

We've seen so much technological innovation, but cost of living has outpaced wages, division is rampant, and the technology innovations we have have mostly been turned against us to enshitify our lives and entrap us in SaaS hell. I'd argue medical science has progressed, but also become more inaccessible, and, somehow, people believe in western medicine LESS. Does not help that we've also seen a decline in education.

So do we still prefer improving our standards of living in the current societal framework?

globalnode 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

sure sure

suzzer99 11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

As long as the owner class can leverage, "Hey, that {out group} is sitting around doing nothing and getting free money!" we'll never have anything close to UBI imo.

gruez 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Seems pretty easy to work around with "UBI for citizens" only. There's not much pushback for social security, for instance, even if minorities get it.

hinkley 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I still like the idea of clawing back mineral and water rights and paying for basic services out of the money payed by industry for the right to dirty our air and water. As a citizen you're entitled to compensation for the smoke you're breathing.

People talk about how socially progressive Scandinavia is but they have a shitload of petroleum resources and that money goes into social programs.

ryandrake 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I'd love to make companies pay for their products' entire lifecycle, including disposal and cleanup. It's not right that a company can manufacture future-trash, sell it, and then absolve itself of the negative externality when the customer throws the product away and off it goes into a landfill.

If a company's process produces waste, it should bear the entire cost of leaving the environment the way they found it rather than just pumping the waste into it. If a company's products are not reused, it should bear the cost of taking the used product back and restoring the world to the way it was before the product was built.

everett_w 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

this reminds me of retropunk and the hundred rabbits

socalgal2 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Yep, we should charge every farm for all the poop that people that eat their food make

throw-qqqqq 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> People talk about how socially progressive Scandinavia is but they have a shitload of petroleum resources and that money goes into social programs

Of all the Scandinavian countries, only Norway has any oil resources of significance.

The Scandinavian welfare model is primarily tax-funded.

hinkley 8 hours ago | parent [-]

My quick look at Swedish exports shows that the largest export is finished equipment at 14%, fuel exports at 7.1, 4.8% wood and paper, 3.6% iron and steel, of which I'm sure a lot of that equipment is made. 3.4% plastics, which is just oil in another form.

It looks like you're right and their oil exports are all import/export rather than domestic, but that's still a good bit of mineral wealth.

Arainach 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

There's been enormous pushback, pushes for privatizing (ruining) it, underfunding it from Congress, an absolute refusal to remove the criminally low income cap on contributions, etc.

zrail 9 hours ago | parent [-]

One could make the argument that the modern Republican Party has in fact largely been shaped by this pushback.

shigawire 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

>There's not much pushback for social security, for instance, even if minorities get it.

The racist moral panic over "welfare queens" seems to be a counter example.

tshaddox 9 hours ago | parent [-]

And the same person who posts about that on Facebook will the next day post “keep your government hands off my social security check.”

whattheheckheck 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

And why do citizens get it? USA killed a lot of the world for their wealth and kneecapped anyone who didn't play along

Der_Einzige 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

A lot of conservatives want to retroactively throw off non whites from citizenship because they think birthrate citizenship is disgusting.

Expect a real movement to reduce the number of citizens in this country. Specifically, if you can’t trace your lineage to a founding father (including for kids of Geman or iish immigrants), than they want you disenfranchised.

Heritage Americans vs “hyphenated Americans”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyphenated_American

fragmede 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Kick me out of communism club if you have to, but I ain't giving people something for nothing. I think everybody should have a roof over their head and food in their bellies, but there's so much stuff to do these days. Go plant a tree or, anything!

flanked-evergl 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

You know. I have worked for almost two decades now, I can't afford to buy an apartment. People who have been useless their entire lives are getting government loans that they then pay off with welfare they get because they are doing nothing.

I'm not the ownership class, this is unfair. You are the ownership class. People with money or who grew up with money are overwhelmingly left leaning.

atlintots 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

You can't afford an apartment because the ownership class is working very hard to keep housing prices high while paying you as little as possible for the two decades you have been working. Not because some disabled person elsewhere is struggling to get by on government loans and welfare.

flanked-evergl 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The people keeping housing prices high are the leftist that push regulations that make it impossible to build while importing immigrants who disproportionately use welfare and get starter loans which they then use to push up housing prices without contributing anything to the economy. If this is the "ownership class" I guess stop voting for leftist. But nobody does, they just keep doing it, and housing becomes even more unaffordable.

The right wing here are the only people where I live with an actual viable plan for helping working people, even low class working people. The left makes deliberate choices that everyone knows will make things worse for lower class working people.

matwood 2 hours ago | parent [-]

This sounds like a Fox News fever dream.

Even if we assume there are tons of jobless immigrants being ‘imported’ they would be renters, not buyers.

Generally, house pricing is primarily a supply problem. Removing immigrants will make this worse given that they are 30%+ of the construction workforce.

flanked-evergl an hour ago | parent [-]

75% of welfare is going to immigrants, they get much easier access to government zero deposit loans even while not working, and then they pay off those loans with welfare. Sorry no fox news, just facts.

Immigrants are also overwhelming much more of a burden to society and the state, they are over represented in crime sadistically and take much more from the state that they contribute.

Suggesting that we would have no construction if we did not import criminal tax leeches seems like an evidence free statement.

socalgal2 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The ownership class is doing no such thing. Zoning, regulation, nimby-ism are what keep prices high.

matwood 2 hours ago | parent [-]

> Zoning, regulation, nimby-ism

And who exactly do you think controls these items?

flanked-evergl an hour ago | parent [-]

Overwhelmingly leftist politicians elected by leftist voters.

8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
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zrail 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

(Citation needed)

tty456 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Such is the republican lizard brain these days.

fourside 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

You also need a system that is ok with giving you some of said abundance without you working.

Last year the US voted to hand over the reigns, in all branches of government, to a party whose philosophy is to slash government spending and reduce people’s dependence on the government.

To all the US futurists who are fantasizing about a post-scarcity world where we no longer work, I’d like to understand how that fits in with the current political climate.

rjbwork 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The thing a lot of people leave out is that literally billions must die for this to happen. In some fully automated world everyone except for a few tens of thousands of the owner class and their technicians will be unneeded. And then what to do?

initramfs2 8 hours ago | parent [-]

How did you arrive at that conclusion? Dividing infinity by 1m or 1b doesn't matter if it's really infinite. Just make more machines to make the machines. The existential crisis happens afterwards, and people will kill themselves off without the need for any class warfare at all. In fact the owner class will die first since there will be no more conception of ownership, since everything is supposedly abundant and at your fingertips.

mlinhares 8 hours ago | parent [-]

You really believe today's billionaire class will just give up their power over the populace? A world of abundance means the billionaires are irrelevant because everyone would have access to everything and they would never let that happen.

They will hoard the resources, land, anything that is needed for people to stay alive.

hnthrow0287345 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It fits because now you can start up the conquering war machine and have a bunch of soldiers who're willing to kill in another country before starving in theirs

_DeadFred_ 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Voting for 'indifference to peoples dependence on the government' does not equal 'reduce people's dependence on the government'.

There is zero actual intentional reduction of dependence, just elimination of government support.

initramfs2 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I am also fairly certain that if we do arrive at some abundant utopia where you can wish for anything can have it arrive, society will collapse. It's just bringing up 7 billion (probably more) spoiled brats at that point of time. Work on its own is also a form of "social control". Idle hands are the devil's tools etc.

RiverCrochet 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

If you can wish for anything and have it arrive, spoiled brats won't be a thing, because competition and envy for things will be pointless.

jbxntuehineoh 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Imo instead of no-strings-attached UBI we should have something like the WPA. Spend ten hours a week or whatever working in local parks/schools/libraries/etc and get paid a basic living wage in return

ndsipa_pomu 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Throughout history, big advances have come from humans having more "idle time", so we should be aiming for the population to be less busy as they can then hopefully focus on pursuing the arts or sciences.

NegativeK 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Big advances have also come from some of the most violent, destructive wars the planet has seen.

I agree with you on principle, but I don't think it's straightforward as your point states.

7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
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gedy 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> big advances have come from humans having more "idle time"

A few people

dullcrisp 7 hours ago | parent [-]

Which ones?

bitwize 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Generally the rich.

simianwords 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

You are painting this like it’s a bad thing. The workers decided that they would rather have higher working time to buy more things!

A lot of people would not choose to work for half the time as they do now because they do actually like to buy things.

mmcromp 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

How can you say that when workers don't have a choice? What accessible job has professional level pay and is part time?

derektank 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Nursing

johnnyanmac 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I'd happily work for 20 hours @200k a year. It'd give me time to work on my own projects.

Issue is that virtually no company offers that deal unless you already have noteriety or money at the level of retiring anyway.

PeterHolzwarth 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Most companies won't hire people with a high degree of notoriety. They may hire those people if they have some degree of fame.

socalgal2 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I've met plenty of people that do this. They are contractors, they take on a contract, work for 6 months, take the next 6 off. I also know some tax accountants that do this.

johnnyanmac 3 hours ago | parent [-]

I'd say being able to work on and off at that schedule isn't something I can find on a job board. Hence my point above of noteriety.

wnc3141 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This pattern suggests the remaining knowledge work becoming increasingly extracted upon by the owners of ai enabled firms, in similar fashion to sugar plantation workers across the global south. I would think the cost of doing so would be a level of social and civic unrest similar to the colonial revolutions (Bolivar for example) of the 19th century.

8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
[deleted]
tim333 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

>such abundance that we never have to work again. We have heard that lie for over a century.

I'm 0.6 centuries old and have never heard that said for existing tech. Human level AI could presumably do human work by definition but that's not the case before we get that, including now.

johnnyanmac 8 hours ago | parent [-]

The 0.90 century old economicists were discussing the idea.

https://www.npr.org/2015/08/13/432122637/keynes-predicted-we...

kovek 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

All of those technologies of the past can be managed by humans. Once computers can manage themselves AND other technologies and people, I think it'll be a different situation.

jjmarr 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If you want to live with no electricity, no running water, and a lack of refrigerated food, you could do so purely on welfare. In that sense, we already have the UBI that Marx predicted.

However, most people want fruits and vegetables instead of getting rickets, goiter, and cholera from an 1800s diet. Many are even willing to work 80+ hours a week to do so.

9dev 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Most non-banana republics across the world define the Minimum standard of living as having all of the things you listed, meaning welfare/social safety nets provide for that. As they should. We’re not animals.

sparky_z 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Correct. Of course, that wasn't the case in 1750 or 1900. It wouldn't have been possible then.

Hence why prior technological changes that increased productivity didn't result in living lives of extended leisure, despite some predictions to that effect. Instead people kept working to raise the overall standard of living to what could be achieved when using the new tools to their fullest extent. Doing more, not doing the same with less effort. As you say, we're not animals. We can strive for better.

cortesoft 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I think that is part of the point, though. As our productivity increases, we don’t see an increase in leisure, instead we see an increase in what we consider the minimum standard of living.

hirvi74 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I appreciate that Finland considers Internet access of a minimum of 1 Mb to be a basic human right. I am not sure if other countries follow, but I wish the USA did.

drnick1 8 hours ago | parent [-]

It's laughably slow given how bloated the modern Web is. In fact even 10Mbps is barely enough to stream 1080p content.

derektank 6 hours ago | parent [-]

You’re not entirely wrong about bloat on modern websites, but if you griped about being unable to stream 1080p video to someone even just 15 years ago you would sound absurdly privileged

globalnode 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

So I can keep track of your wonderful comment, I'd like to add that looking up "banana republic", I realised Australia seems to fit that description perfectly! The latest crop they've come up with seems to be housing, but instead of fruit companies we have real estate cabals. With respect to the workers at the bottom of a banana republic, whats missing is the element of real choice. They say yes you can choose to not work harder but then you die early or suffer from disease, not much of a choice. Modern slavery is built on this idea of false choice.

stouset 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I’m not really sure the point you’re trying to make behind “as long as you don’t mind dying early and painfully from easily preventable diseases technically you can live in utopia”. Would you mind clarifying your position here?

beeflet 9 hours ago | parent [-]

the pre-industrial utopia has been created

cyanydeez 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

See, we have enough food to feed the entire world, every year.

It's not our production capabilities that keep people hungry; it's either greed or the problem of distribution.

Automation will definitely amplify production but it'll certainly continue to make rich richer and poor, well, the same. As inequality grows, so too does the authoritarian need to control the differential.

quantummagic 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Maybe we only have enough food to feed the entire world, because of greed. Every time we've tried to impose a system that spreads the wealth to the masses, rather than it resulting in equality, it has led to suffering and bloodshed. And ironically, in the Soviet Union and China, the death of millions from starvation.