Let us make it clear: "outperforming humans at most economically valuable work" is not AGI. AGI is when you implemented Intelligence (what intelligent people call "intelligence").

One example (of the many given many times) remains "adherence to truth": to get to the AGI they must have overcome the delioriousness issue - the outputs cannot be delirious. And another thing: if you can implement general Intelligence, you will also be able to achieve /optimized/ intelligence... As in: "here are all the theorems, in lean form, bringing to the output".

I mean Open AI has the incentive and history of hyping it up. And the general rule the last 20% would take the same amount of time as they got the first 80%.

But having said that, it is getting ridiculously good and plenty of people find enough value out of AI as of today. In terms of hardware we already knew what the next 3 to 4 years would be like. There seems to be enough work on optimisation to further enhance the model.

OpenAI doesn't have the best-performing public model, but it's an open secret that Astra, the internal model, is better than anything Anthropic has internally.

This sounds like something you say to get your evaluation up as you inch closer towards IPO...

Yeah, that's right. But you know they can say whatever they want :D

Yep I think they are underestimating the last 20% of work required here, unless they know something we don't...

that's true

Exactly. It is reasonable to believe that AGI will never be built on unchanging data, no matter how many times you iterate over it.

Computers can and probably do already contain essentially all human knowledge, but without a continuous wave of new data to process and respond to then that surfer known as sentience will never have a wave to ride.

Think of the comparisons to human minds. We are constantly assaulted with sight, sound, smell, temperature, gravity, proprioception (the sense of our own bodies in 3 dimensional space), touch, and all of our dozens of other, lesser known senses. We have constant new data input to process in real time and our consciousness sits atop that maelstrom a lonely king.

Further, our brain is a marvel of multiple lobes communicating with each other in a frenzy of bioelectricity, and duplicated, and interconnected amongst the duplication, and our consciousness emerges somewhere in the static to make something conceptually tangible.

I think LLMs and the technology is fascinating, but it is constructed on unchanging data. Maybe it blips close to consciousness from time to time, but I bet they are no closer to achieving AGI than they were to creating positive power fusion energy from Philo Farnsworth's fusor.

Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but that's how I see things for now.

> That completely made up number

That «completely made up number» was said by "Chief research officer Mark Chen", and that is news - curious, and somehow interesting. It is in the article, and probably more notable than 'Inside OpenAI’s Reboot'.

> Amid all this, company leaders believe they have arrived at the cusp of a milestone that could change the course of humanity: the creation of artificial general intelligence, or AGI. OpenAI’s charter defines AGI as “highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work.” Its leaders won’t quite declare they’ve reached that threshold. But they no longer speak about it as a distant abstraction. Chief research officer Mark Chen estimated OpenAI is “80% of the way” to AGI. Brockman said that viewed from two years in the future, this may be remembered as the moment AGI was created. Altman told me that OpenAI was “not quite yet” there, but that by the end of the year the company would have an internal system he would call AGI

The submitter is relatively new here (maybe he has not consulted the guidelines that much yet), but I will give a token of my understanding on why one would replace the original title with the "Oh, by the way, <outlandish statement>".

> for that matter

Nah. Every intellectual dealing with Intelligence should have an idea at least of what is missing ("if that should be a cat where are the ears"). Construct a set difference between an ideal human cognitive system and current LLMs, and you will get an idea approximating AGI.