It could not be Frankfurtian if we say that he was just speaking colloquially and obviously only really meant something like "quite close", and indeed making up random percentages to stand for such vague feelings is really quite a normal thing in certain styles of everyday conversation. Whether or not such a style is appropriate in this context is debatable, but it could save him from the bullshit charge.

But I don't see how it being an estimation makes it less bullshitty, because there is simply no reasonable way to tie that 80% to anything concrete or meaningful. It is stated in such a way that evaluating the truth or accuracy of the estimate is basically impossible, i.e. it is bullshit by vagueness, even if it is an estimate. Only the "end of the year" claim is concrete, but the AGI definition has much of the same BS-via-vagueness problem, so it is still all very Frankfurtian to me.

So I don't see it as banging news, but just as more BS and almost certainly a nothingburger. But, hey, whatever, time will tell.

> reasonable way to tie that 80% to anything concrete or meaningful

80% of the implementation of an internal project, I guessed.