What I can’t get over is that there have been exactly zero software breakthroughs since vibe coding started, other than vibe coding itself.

Claude is amazing, that’s true.

But if it was as amazing as this article implies, I’d expect some breakthrough outside of AI itself.

Rewriting a Zig program in unsafe Rust? Not a breakthrough. Finding a bunch of security vulns? Maybe that’s sort of a breakthrough though it’s underwhelming and possibly just a net negative. But like if I rolled back to using software from 2023 then life would be ok.

Maybe we just need to give it time, and sometime real soon, we will all be amazed by such a breakthrough? Who knows

Its in a weird space right now.

These models are actually extremely good but they are far from an intelligence unto themselves. Truth is if someone told you they could build these things 5 years ago, you d write them a check for a trillion dollars. Problem is once we got them, we realized they are not all that. Its like a mecha suit in a universe, where mecha suits are abundant and cheap. Someone has to climb into them everyday and put in the work for it to be effective.

So now the skeptics are saying this technology is overrated. And the optimists are accusing the skeptics of moving goal posts.

Maybe my bar for what constitutes a breakthrough is lower than other people's, but all of these seem like breakthroughs to me:

NLP as a field saw huge shifts. NLP tasks that used to be complex and inaccurate can now be setup very easily and quickly using structured outputs from LLMs, often with greater accuracy.

A small charity I help with has now been able to build their own website to manage their day-to-day operations. It saves them a lot of time, and it was vibe-coded using Manus. I don't think people appreciate how much room there is left for bespoke software to have big impacts on small organisations that can't afford to hire developers. The cost for software like the one they made has gone from 10s of thousands of dollars to $10/month and volunteer hours.

My brother has recently been setting up Cowork to do an automatic review of contracts before human review, and he said it is far more diligent than people when it comes to routine things to check. This is another huge breakthrough for not just efficiency, but the quality of work.

I really don't think we can discount AI finding bugs and vulnerabilities. If you care about code quality and keep up review standard, LLMs can help you write more robust software. AI has found a huge number of bugs for me before they hit production, including potential out-of-bounds memory accesses and segfaults.

ChatGPT has 1 billion MAU. People are now getting life advice, financial advice, and mental health help from chatbots at a scale and cost that no human support network could match.

I am doing a solo project that is pretty big, meaning it is not something I could vibe code. I can do alot with AI that I could never do on my own, but I am not seeing several mulitples improvement in my productivity. I spend so much time doing what I call "AI wrangling", trying to get it to do what I want. Claude is writing all the javscript and python code, but ultimately I am programming in English. What is good is that it is effectively a very high level computer language, where the agent can implement a lot of underlying code with a short English description, often. But many other times it takes a lot of work to get what you want.

Maybe I'm looking through rose colored glasses, but software that writes itself seems like a pretty big breakthrough to me.

The arguments against AI assisted coding used to be "only for toy projects", then at some point it became "no dignity", "joyless". Now it's "no new breakthrough" apparently. All in the span of maybe a year. I say it's made tremendous progress.

The breakthroughs in mass state surveillance are coming, never fear.

Vibe coding is the breakthrough. There's always been "no-code" solutions to problems in various business domains, but they were invariably janky, underpowered, and/or overpriced. Now we have a way for domain experts to go directly from ACTUAL natural language directly to implementation in a real programming language, fully automated, in minutes or hours. How is that not a science-fiction level breakthrough? In 2011 if anyone had said that would be possible "in 15 years", I think most professionals at the time would not have replied with "yeah it's coming but your timeline is off". It would have been "you have no fucking idea what you're talking about".

What does a breakthrough look like?

What does a software breakthrough look like in your opinion?

If you get yourself to define it, maybe you'll find it achievable :)

openAI has how many employees and the chatGPT app has 1 billion MAU