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wild_egg 3 hours ago

What does a breakthrough look like?

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pizlonator 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Some examples:

- The first web browser

- the first web browser with images

- typescript

- react

- rust

- Fil-C

- doom

- quake

- the anamorphic VM, and its follow-ups like HotSpot, and even competitors/copycats like J9, V8, JSC, etc

- Fortnite battle royale

- Roblox

- thefacebook

- ChatGPT

- Claude code

I know that’s quite a range and that’s intentional.

Anyway, I think we’ll know it when we see it.

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HardCodedBias 2 hours ago | parent [-]

The LLM+Harness mostly helps with execution.

These are new products (generally) and that's a different class of problem.

It is possible that since LLM+harness helps with execution then we should see more experiments.

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luke5441 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Even then we should be able to see things that previously were not possible because they took too much effort.

For example NPCs in games that have complexity that previously was not possible.

Good games often push the boundaries a bit, so should be a good example.

Of course now we can start arguing that there isn't a lot of investment into gaming currently, because it all goes into AI. Too bad.

	▲	adgjlsfhk1 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		we're still at least 3 years too early for that. games usually are in a 5+ year dev cycle, so even if AI made gamedev 2x faster, we're still not at the point where the first opus 4.5 games are out

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joshuamcginnis 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Massive productivity gains.

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pizlonator 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Yeah.

To play devils advocate, computers didn’t translate to massive productivity gains until long after businesses adopted them. There was that quote from ’87: "you can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics"

Maybe we’re seeing something like that right now with AI?

Who knows man

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bdamm 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

This is absolutely the right vision imo.

Personally, I'm seeing massive improvements to my workflow and the quality of the product I'm shipping. I'm using AI to crank out far more tests than I used to be able to write, and I am using AI to analyze results with far more fidelity and speed than I could ever have done myself. That means I have more quality time.

But this will change, because the meaning of software development will change to expect, nay to require AI use. I've heard this is already happening at e.g. Google. The expectation of what can be achieved by tinkerers and by professionals will change. The expectation of what it means to interact with software via your own agents will change and will become commonplace. Apple still hasn't figured out the local agent on the iPhone, but they will. 2027 is not going to feel at all like 2025.

But is any of that a fundamental change? It sure feels fundamental to me, but maybe that's because my everyday has totally changed, but the product I am responsible for has not. Yet. The product I am responsible for operates in critical infrastructure where I personally hope AI never has deep roots, but maybe that's just me. I don't think using AI to build a system that is offline from any AI is the same as depending on an AI to make realtime decisions for critical infrastructure.

	▲	4ffss an hour ago \| parent [-]
		"That means I have more quality time." For now... the shareholders demand managers get the max out of every employee. Throw the force of competition etc into the mix and yeah labour isn't going to benefit all that much.

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4ffss an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Efficiency and productivity in relation to final goods measured in GDP aren't the same thing.

Its yet to be determined just how 'efficient' people are with LLM's as its not really a one-person thing - the true measure is based on an entire collection of people's output.

Startups being rapidly efficient doesn't mean much in relation to the overall economy.

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yoyohello13 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

How about a Windows file browser that opens in less than 5 seconds.

	▲	wild_egg an hour ago \| parent [-]
		FilePilot has been a thing for a while now