| ▲ | huntertwo 8 hours ago |
| Shouldn’t UAE be upset their entire economy has absolutely rammed by the war started by Israel? At least the Saudis have pipelines - UAE is fucked |
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| ▲ | csomar 9 minutes ago | parent | next [-] |
| The UAE is over-collateralized. They can sustain such a conflict for a very long time. |
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| ▲ | jmyeet 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| It's more complex than that. Saudi Arabia has the East-West Pipeline [1] that takes ~7Mbpd (million barrels per day) of oil to Red Sea ports to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. They were already using it so there's not a lot of extra capacity they can get out. If we continue up the escalation ladder, the next big risk is that the Houthis close Bab al-Mandab, which is a not-quite-as-narrow but still vulnerable chokepoint to the Red Sea. The UAE has the ADCOP (Abu Dhabi Cross Oil Pipeline) [2], which takes ~1.8Mbpd to the Gulf of Oman. This is beyond the Strait of Hormuz but not that far so technically is still vulnerable to drone attacks (in particular) from Iran if, again, we climb the escalation ladder. The real issue is American security guarantees to GCC nations have been shown to be an illusion. Heck, the US can't protect their own bases in the region. Also, the US can't protect maritime traffic through the Strait. I mean this is in all seriousness: there is no military solution to this problem short of the use of nuclear weapons. That means we are now in a situation where the US has to either split with Israel and offer Iran significantly better terms than they had before the war, likely including the lfiting of economic sanctions, or the US has to sit and watch the world plunge into recession and Asian countries in particular are going to burn. And who knows what a prolonged impasse will do to Europe, particularly come winter. So far, the US seems to prefer letting the world burn rather thans plitting with Israel. A protection racket ceases to be a protection racket if it no longer offers protection. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East%E2%80%93West_Crude_Oil_Pi... [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habshan%E2%80%93Fujairah_oil_p... |
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| ▲ | DeathArrow 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | >That means we are now in a situation where the US has to either split with Israel and offer Iran significantly better terms than they had before the war, likely including the lfiting of economic sanctions, or the US has to sit and watch the world plunge into recession and Asian countries in particular are going to burn. And who knows what a prolonged impasse will do to Europe, particularly come winter. I have the impression that somehow if the world will go into a recession, China will come out ahead. It looks like they either prepared for it or they have enough space to maneuver. | |
| ▲ | ajross 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > Asian countries in particular are going to burn They won't sit still, though. Eventually, if this were tried, we'd see Chinese-flagged tankers buying passage rights from Iran and being escorted by PLAN ships. No way does Commander TACO take that shot. The US interdiction threat in the gulf is empty, and everyone know it. Iran gets paid at the end of every story. The whole boondoggle has been a failure for the US in every analysis. | | |
| ▲ | bigfatkitten an hour ago | parent [-] | | I suspect USN commanders have been ordered to leave Chinese flagged tankers well alone, even in the absence of a PLAN escort. | | |
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| ▲ | _DeadFred_ 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| davidf18 your post (and all your recent posts) is flagged dead. |
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| ▲ | stogot 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| UAE is the third largest producer in OPEC, and has options to avoid the straight, yet Their economy recently get shocked though by the war they wanted to avoid |
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| ▲ | davidf18 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
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| ▲ | grumple 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
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| ▲ | huntertwo 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | Even when Israel strikes first, someone else started it. Brilliant! | | |
| ▲ | sysguest 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | hmm isn't the whole thing a continuation of "revenge against hamas's attack on Oct 7th 2023" ? hamas being a proxy to iran, I don't get why people think iran as some "peace loving, innocent country" well, are they? raping/killing some *foreigners* and displaying their bodies as parade... well that's not very "peace loving and innocent" is it? | | |
| ▲ | huntertwo 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | When you make a ceasefire and then strike first, that’s called being the aggressor. How many civilians has Israel killed since oct 7? When is it enough? Israel killed >50k civilians since October 7 between all the conflicts Revenge is not a justification for destroying civilizations. Israelis also rape, kill, and do other vile things to prisoners, innocent or guilty, who they imprison with or without charge. | | |
| ▲ | sysguest 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | > Israelis also rape, kill, and do other vile things to prisoners, innocent or guilty, who they imprison with or without charge. well but do israelis parade their dead rape victims openly? > When you make a ceasefire and then strike first well that's between trump and iran? did netanyahu agree? I agree that netanyahu is being a dick here: he should have focused on iran, instead of invading lebanon. That alone is a huge political/PR mistake but... how's that ceasefire related? is israel a proxy of usa? does Trump control israel directly? Ethically, the israel politicians goes at great length NOT to damage civilians: the walkie-talkie bomb is a classic example of "try to kill all the militants WITHOUT carpet bombing" (though they failed to "kill all" with that scheme, and... well they did bomb a lot after that) | | |
| ▲ | krige 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > well but do israelis parade their dead rape victims openly? 1) why is that an important distinction? 2) but since you asked, they do, western media just refuse to show it but all you need to do is follow a bunch of israeli instagram accounts and you'll see more than enough sooner rather than later | | |
| ▲ | sysguest 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | > 2) but since you asked, they do, western media just refuse to show it but all you need to do is follow a bunch of israeli instagram accounts and you'll see more than enough sooner rather than later woah... big claims here! maybe you should post source? |
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| ▲ | justsomehnguy 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > well but do israelis parade their dead rape victims openly? Ah, this is where you draw the line? | | |
| ▲ | sysguest 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | well where do YOU draw the line then? One side openly tries to do maximum death on everyone including infants (eg. fire random missiles, intifada, and the oct 7th attack) The other side at least tried their best NOT to attack back (expensive missile defense systems) or at least kill only the militants selectively (walkietalkie boomboom) I mean, you should be ashamed of even comparing israel vs iran/hamas/etc | | |
| ▲ | watwut 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | > One side openly tries to do maximum death on everyone including infants That would be israel with special focus on journalists and doctors > The other side at least tried their best NOT to attack back As idiotic as it is, Iran shown more restraint then Israel and USA against other countries. Internaly not, but ouyside yes. They played tit for tat. | | |
| ▲ | sysguest an hour ago | parent [-] | | > Iran shown more restraint then Israel and USA against other countries
> They played tit for tat. like... firing missiles at UAE...? launching drone to dubai tower? did India do anything to iran to get its ships fired upon? blocking hormuz strait... that alone was enough to trigger global coalition -- though due to Trump's trade dick move to allies... no one sent troops... if it's "tit for tat", then why does iran make so many un-related countries suffer (eg india?) well simple: iran is the new pirate of 21st century. nothing more or less. if anyone says "that's because US attacked", then if I got hit by a car, can I have my revenge on nearby pedestrians? |
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| ▲ | grumple 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iran%E2%80%93Israel_confl... | | |
| ▲ | huntertwo 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | First paragraph > On 1 April, Israel bombed an Iranian consulate complex in Damascus, Syria, killing multiple senior Iranian officials.[28] In response, Iran and its Axis of Resistance allies seized the Israeli-linked ship MSC Aries and launched strikes inside Israel on 13 April.[6] Not to mention, Israeli occupations in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank. Iran is not the only bad actor. | |
| ▲ | stogot 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | That’s 2024, you said the proxies started it in 2023? | | |
| ▲ | breppp 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-fighters-trained... https://israel-alma.org/special-report-for-years-iran-planne... There was extensive planning for a multi front attack including Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah. The story of this war is the previous idea in Israel that you could work out with an extremely religious enemy at the border as underneath their claiming to want to destroy you, they are rational. After Hamas decided to go on a national suicide for no achievement except for a single day of an orgy of violence and the complete destruction of gaza, that view has changed. This puts Hezbollah similar to Hamas, and their patron Iran ballistic and nuclear weapon program in a different light, and makes preemptive strikes and the complete destruction of the Iranian Axis (largely successful) as an important goal for Israel |
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| ▲ | fortran77 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I hope the FBI and DHS take note of American tech workers who support Iran and its proxies. No government agency should go anywhere near a YCombinator company. | | |
| ▲ | razster 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | This sentiment strikes me as somewhat beneath the usual caliber I see here. Perhaps it would serve you well to step away from the keyboard for a while: take a walk, grab a drink at a bar, enjoy a quiet evening, and allow some real-world perspective to settle in. | |
| ▲ | franczesko 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | You don't have to support Iran, to condemn Israel. | | |
| ▲ | razster 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | Agreed. One doesn’t dictate the other’s signal—step away from the monitor, let the noise fade, and you’ll notice they’re running on parallel tracks. |
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| ▲ | nielsbot 23 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | protesting an idiotic war started for Israel is not supporting Iran. Seems obvious! | |
| ▲ | DaSHacka 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Lol you mean until two years from now, when tides will inevitably shift? The so-called "Zion-don" won't be in office forever, despite what he seems to believe. Look at the polling. The current U.S. stance on Iran and Israel is extremely unpopular. It's only a matter of time before a natural course correction occurs, and the voters' voice is heard, whether at the upcoming midterms or the next presidential election. And let me tell you, if you think HN is bad, you better not check Zoomer social media. |
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| ▲ | UltraSane 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Iran has been using Hezbollah to attack Israel for over 30 years now. The explicit goal of Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas is the destruction of Israel. | | |
| ▲ | b345 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Absolute bullcrap. Hezbollah was created to stop illegal Israeli occupation of Lebanon. What hezbollah has done to the Israelis is nothing more than what they deserve |
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| ▲ | wdr1 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| > Shouldn’t UAE be upset their entire economy has absolutely rammed by the war started by Israel? It's pretty convoluted logic to blame Israel for Iran attacking the UAE. |
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| ▲ | KingOfCoders 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | The problems the UAE has are not based on Iran attacking the UAE but Iran closing the Strait - which is a direct and foreseeable result of Israel attacking Iran. | | |
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