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martinald 6 hours ago

Not quite. The UK govt has a rolling target of how many EVs are sold as a proportion of all vehicles. The manufacturers get "fined" £15k per ICE car sold over the target. The targets are ramping up rapidly - 22% in 2024, 28% in 2025, 33% in 2026, etc, reaching 80% (AFIAK, keeps changing) in 2030. There's various trading mechanisms in place and what not so it's a bit more complicated than this.

So it's far better to sell EV below cost (Chinese or not) to get more sold than have to a pay £15k for an ICE car.

The Chinese manufacturers are arguably at double advantage here as they have more BEV to sell so it's far easier for them meet the targets, and they can 'sell' the excess to the Western manufacturers (and further subsidise their EVs!).

I'm not personally against it, I got a brand new EV on a lease recently for close to free after all the tax advantages, and it's not like the Western manufacturers didn't have time to prepare...?

eterm 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The goal is to migrate everyone to EVs, and it sounds like the government incentive mechanism is working, albeit in a roundabout way.

laughing_man an hour ago | parent | next [-]

It sounds like ICE buyers are subsidizing EV buyers. The math starts to get ugly as EVs become a larger percentage of the mix. ICEs will be priced out of the market, but there won't be anyone left to subsidize the EVs. In short, it sounds like buying a car is about to get a lot more expensive in the UK.

rootusrootus an hour ago | parent [-]

> It sounds like ICE buyers are subsidizing EV buyers.

Given how long we have all been subsidizing ICE buyers, I think it is fair to spread the love around a little.

sega_sai 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The problem is that there is not enough infrastructure for EVs. If you can't charge at home (e.g. you live in a flat), it is hard to live with an EV and it's much more expensive than the ICE.

boznz 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I had a rental EV while I was there for 6 weeks last summer, it was a pretty low spec jeep model and I stayed at mates places all over England none of which had parking or charging, to tell the truth charging was a bit spotty in town, but if I was just going around the local area the battery was good for a week or more. My take away was I would definitely rent an EV again, but a lot of the older charging infrastructure still sucks, under-provisioned at peak times, and cost 2-3 times what a similar charge would cost here in NZ. I ended up doing most of my charging at the Tesla superchargers on the motorways and at supermarkets in town. I did 2900 miles total and it was about the same cost as petrol in the end, but worth it as the EV was cheaper to rent and was automatic (which renters charge a premium in UK)

Not sure fast charging all the time is good for battery life though. 99% of my driving in NZ is on a normal 10A overnight charge

sigio 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Local government can quickly change that, if they get their act together. Here in the Hague, there's literally thousands of public chargers available on the city's residential streets. Coupled with the fact that the charging-price is city-mandated at a fixed rate (currently around 35ct/kwh), this gives a perfectly fine solution for most people. (I can charge at home, for 20ct/kwh currently, so that's even nicer)

throwaway85825 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

35ct/kwh is highway robbery.

Sayrus 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Not sure what country you're from but in France it's not rare to see 0.30-0.60€ per kWh and even requiring a subscription on top of that.

m463 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

would be nice if california had such discounted prices... :)

throwaway85825 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Jesus, I had no idea California was that bad. How is that even possible? Our rate is 15c/kwh.

rootusrootus 2 hours ago | parent [-]

> How is that even possible?

It's PG&E for the most part, and their huge liability payout for burning a city to the ground due to skipping maintenance on their distribution lines.

Some places in California have prices closer to the US average.

coryrc 11 minutes ago | parent [-]

And not enough share on the people who built on a tinderbox which historically regularly (every few years) had fires go through.

gib444 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Not in the UK. Local governments (councils) are going bankrupt and are saddled with an overwhelming burden to pay for adult and child social care. There's no money for much else

teamonkey 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It’s getting better.

https://transportandenergy.com/2026/04/16/42-of-councils-to-...

throwaway85825 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Governments would do better to try to fix the bureaucracy around installing L2 chargers in shared living spaces. It's a problem they created and it should be on them to fix. But it guess that's harder than impossible mandates and high EV taxes.

tshaddox 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

You can't fill up your gas tank at home or at work, which is presumably where a significant portion of EV drivers charge their cars.

znkynz 4 hours ago | parent [-]

There are many, many homes in the UK with no garaging, where cars are parked in non-reserved spaces on the street overnight.

AnthonyMouse 3 hours ago | parent [-]

If a significant percentage of cars start to become EVs then spaces where people regularly park overnight will get chargers because it will allow whoever is operating them to make a bit of money selling electricity. You don't have to be making a huge profit margin to make it worth your while to have people passively buying ~200kWh/month of electricity from you.

The same applies to workplaces, especially if solar causes electricity to cost less during daylight hours, and then it becomes convenient to get an EV if there is a charger where you park at night or where you park during the day.

znkynz 3 hours ago | parent [-]

that would depend on the infrastucture cost to install such charging and to maintain it? This is kerbside slow charging presumably overnight. Note that spaces in these residental areas are typically not even marked spaces; the worst outcome might be losing more footpath space to charging infra for road users.

nicoburns 37 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Non-fast chargers aren't very big. They can be installed in lampposts, or in lampost-diameter boxes sunk into the pavement (with the socket sticking out at the top)

JumpCrisscross 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> would depend on the infrastucture cost to install such charging and to maintain it?

The UK runs on 240V. A regular outlet would probably be fine.

cogman10 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

In the UK? Nah.

Electricity is expensive in the UK (~25p/kWh) But not gas car expensive. It is £1.57/L (£5.94/gallon).

The EV infrastructure is also pretty dang far along, especially compared to the US. Remember that everything in the UK is a lot smaller and closer together than it is in the US. Further, the UK has a functional train system for long distance travel. You can go from the top of Dunnet Head to Lizard Point in a 15 hour drive.

People downvoting me, Look up chargers in plugshare to see just how many there are in the UK, it's a lot. And also correct my math if it's wrong. An 80kWh car costs £20 to fill up. A 55L car, which has about the same range, costs £85 to fill up.

teamonkey 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Also if you are able to charge at home you can subscribe to a smart tariff that gives you electricity for 4p/kWh overnight. That’s £3.20 to fill an 80kWh battery that on a modern car will take you up to 320 miles.

throwaway85825 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

"Functional train system" is not how anyone would describe the UK. It's cheaper to fly than take the train.

Cost to fill up doesnt matter, only the cost per mile.

btbuilder 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

~1.5 billion train journeys a year is “functional”.

Jblx2 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

£3.20/320 miles = 1p/mile

hunterpayne 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The problem isn't infrastructure. Its the amount of Li in reserve.

adrian_b 2 hours ago | parent [-]

There already are in production cars with Na-ion batteries.

pstuart 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Another problem is that fuel taxes are a reasonably equitable means of paying for the roads, and EVs don't have that -- the closest would be vehicle miles * weight or some such.

DangitBobby 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Fuel taxes don't seem to take into account the quartic scaling of damage by vehicle weight on pavement.

Detrytus 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Well, if they did then EVs would pay more, since they are much heavier., because of, you know, the batteries.

rootusrootus 3 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Like for like, about 10% heavier. For now, at least. Few more years and they will be lighter on average.

DangitBobby an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

At least in the US, EVs are not heavier than the average driver's vehicle, though they are heavier than other vehicles in their class. And practically all consumer vehicles are nothing compared to semi trucks.

dalyons 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

And that will never change?

nslsm 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The goal is that if you’re poor you can’t own a car.

diath 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> The goal is to migrate everyone to EVs

This won't happen unless they outright ban non-EV vehicles which is unlikely considering how many people are still using old cars and cannot afford new cars, how many car enthusiasts are there, and not to mention potential lobbying from big oil.

dalyons 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

So 20 years from now, all the old gas regular people cars have aged out. You’re left with what, 1 or 2% of enthusiasts cars? Seems like success to me, and fairly inevitable

Jblx2 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

There will undoubtedly be a death spiral of sorts when it comes to gas stations, refineries, etc. where they become fewer and farther between as less people buy fuel. And that makes it more expensive and inconvenient, so more people buy EVs, which in turn...

rebolek 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Death spiral to gas stations? why? EV cars need to charge somewhere (and on long trip it can’t be at home) and people need to take a break and grab a coffee sometime too. They will change, sure, but certainly not die. Refineries will be fewer but we do need another products from them also.

barbazoo 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Chargers can be anywhere. They are at grocery stores, parking lots, restaurants, I can see the need for a dedicated re fuel station to disappear when charging is ubiquitous.

WD-42 27 minutes ago | parent [-]

This is what people don’t get. Charging just means parking. The idea of dedicated charging stations where you stand around doing nothing, maybe buying a candy bar, really only make sense in the context of a fuel which is not literally already everywhere.

cogman10 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Presumably a lot of people will charge at home which significantly cuts down the number of stations needed or the traffic to those stations.

For example, I have 2 gas stations within a mile of my home. They stay pretty busy because people around me constantly need to fill up. I, on the other hand, basically never visit either of those stations since I switched to an EV. I charge at home.

If everyone around me switched to EVs, those stations could not stay in business. There's a grocery store in the same area which makes anything those stations offer obsolete.

Those are the majority of gas stations that die with a mass switch over to EVs. There's a gas station for my hometown without an attached convenience store with 300 people there. There's no way that station stays in service if a significant portion of the community switches to EVs. It already struggles to be profitable as is (I know the owner).

decimalenough 25 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

A place where you can take a break and grab a coffee is called a cafe, not a gas station.

Also, with Chinese manufacturers increasingly pushing out batteries capable of 1000+ km, you'll be able to charge fully at home for increasingly long road trips.

Jblx2 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I'm using the definitions:

- Gas Station = retail outlet that sells and dispenses gasoline and other petroleum-based fuel products

- Charging station = place to charge your EV

Could be an interesting long bet. Will the number of retail locations selling gasoline in the UK in the year 2045 be higher or lower than in 2026?

idontwantthis 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Charging stations will only need to be on highways if cities are sensible and build slow charging infrastructure (aka normal wall sockets) in parking spaces. Urban gas stations will be a thing of the past.

throwaway85825 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Is AVgas in a death spiral? It's survived as a niche product for a long time.

Jblx2 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Does anyone have reliable data on the number locations selling avgas in say, the U.S. compared to the number of locations selling automobile grade gasoline?

rootusrootus 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

To what extent is avgas effectively subsidized by the existence of gas cars?

5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]
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medler 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This has already happened in Norway, where 96% of new cars sold are EVs. They didn’t ban combustion but they did support adoption with subsidies and other incentives

triceratops 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

New EVs become used EVs that poorer people can afford.

Poor people don't buy new cars. New EVs being expensive is not a poor person problem.

hdgvhicv 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The problem is a 50kWh battery in a car is worth more as a battery than a typical £1500 car.

The lowest end of the market won’t have electric cars unless the batteries are shagged (early Leafs)

And given how insanely cheap petrol is (15p a mile, so £450 for a low mileage runaround) the savings even if electric was free and they weren’t introducing a 3p/mile charge isn’t there.

cogman10 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

A £1500 car is £1500 because it's expected you'll need to replace the engine or transmission pretty soon. That can be up to a £4000 job (£2500 on the low end).

And, as it turns out, a brand new 50kWh battery costs around £4000 to manufacture. Used will be cheaper.

quibono 3 hours ago | parent [-]

With most modern ICE cars everything but the transmission and the engine will fail before those two go out. Also: I don't think that's the usual case. Plenty of sub 2k cars that will happily keep driving for years (I've had 3 such cars). ~700 mark is where you start seeing 300k mile "finish-them-off"-type cars.

cogman10 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Plenty of EVs will drive for years as well (so long as they have a good thermal system for the battery). So I'm not sure what point is being made.

Saying "It costs a lot of money to replace the battery" doesn't mean much as the battery, even if it has 70% of it's original capacity, is still perfectly functional. Very much the same as the engine which also costs a lot of money to replace.

g8oz an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

I heard plenty of horror stories involving modern cars and their transmissions and engines.

3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
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XorNot 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Battery prices are still falling though, it's just demand is enormous. But I works fully expect China to start having "compatible replacement packs" being built once the volume is there to support it.

A logical future market is battery-refurbished EVs, just a question of where the crossover point is.

6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]
[deleted]
gerdesj 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

"Gas" prices are hiking up here - its about £1.90 per litre of diesel at the moment and petrol isn't much less.

In contrast, my cheaper 'leccy rate is now about 25% less at 5.2p per kWh than it was. Electricity is weird in the UK - its pinned to the price of gas and is currently (lol) rather expensive "on peak" at 27.87p per kWh and there is a day standing charge of 47.71p. That's from Octopus.

We also have a petrol car - an elderly Renault Clio. It does just run and run and is pretty economic for a pretty shagged out ICE.

My EV is cheaper to run, by far. However, its unlikely the battery will last 20 odd years. I haven't yet sat down and done some whole life costs for ICE vs EV yet.

My Saic MG4 can do 300+ miles on a 100% charge of its 78kWh battery. After two years, it still manages to exceed its WLTP (with care, when required) and I quite like the ridiculous 0-30 acceleration etc.

polyphemus_rm 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

That's interesting!

Do happen to have a link for how the "brand new EV on a lease recently for close to free after all the tax advantages" works in the UK?

martinald 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

As sibling comment posted, if you run a company you can write off the cost of the lease against corporation tax (25% tax saving), VAT (a further 10% saving if you have personal use, otherwise the full 20% if it's purely business), and you don't have to pay income tax on the money (albeit with a small benefit in kind payment).

If you're in the higher tax brackets this means a £200/month lease (say) ends up more like £90/month.

And because of the "new" £3kish subsidy the govt put in, the car finance companies seem to basically apply that as a big discount to the lease value (or it seems that way?). So you could get a brand new ~£30k EV with no upfront payment and a 2-3 year term for <£100/month including maintenance. Mine even came with a free car charger install at home.

gnfargbl 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

This only works for business leases. The employee sacrifices part of their salary in return for being provided a lease car, and both the employee and employer save tax on that money (up to 45% employee, ~15% employer).

For an ICE car the government claws this money back through hefty "Benefit In Kind" taxes placed on employer-provided vehicles, but as an incentive to drive adoption the rates on EVs are only 3% of the car's nominal purchase price (and you only actually pay up to 45% of that 3%).

It doesn't work out "free," but it's typically as cheap to lease a new EV through this scheme as it is to pay the depreciation on a used ICE.

pkaodev 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Not sure what schemes are that good (would be interested to see). My company has one, but I ended up buying a used ICE because it worked out to cost about the same as leasing the equivalent EV model of that car. But that might have been the case for the specific car I was looking at (small Volvo SUV).

martinald 4 hours ago | parent [-]

check out https://www.leaseloco.com/ (there's other sites - I am assuming you are in the UK), they have a lot of deals on. If you want a really good deal then I don't think you want to look for a specific car, you want instead to see what deals are going on and choose between them. It _seems_ that from time to time the manufacturers do a bit of a firesale via leases.