| ▲ | diath 6 hours ago |
| > The goal is to migrate everyone to EVs This won't happen unless they outright ban non-EV vehicles which is unlikely considering how many people are still using old cars and cannot afford new cars, how many car enthusiasts are there, and not to mention potential lobbying from big oil. |
|
| ▲ | dalyons 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| So 20 years from now, all the old gas regular people cars have aged out. You’re left with what, 1 or 2% of enthusiasts cars? Seems like success to me, and fairly inevitable |
| |
| ▲ | Jblx2 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | There will undoubtedly be a death spiral of sorts when it comes to gas stations, refineries, etc. where they become fewer and farther between as less people buy fuel. And that makes it more expensive and inconvenient, so more people buy EVs, which in turn... | | |
| ▲ | rebolek 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Death spiral to gas stations? why? EV cars need to charge somewhere (and on long trip it can’t be at home) and people need to take a break and grab a coffee sometime too. They will change, sure, but certainly not die.
Refineries will be fewer but we do need another products from them also. | | |
| ▲ | barbazoo 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Chargers can be anywhere. They are at grocery stores, parking lots, restaurants, I can see the need for a dedicated re fuel station to disappear when charging is ubiquitous. | | |
| ▲ | WD-42 26 minutes ago | parent [-] | | This is what people don’t get. Charging just means parking. The idea of dedicated charging stations where you stand around doing nothing, maybe buying a candy bar, really only make sense in the context of a fuel which is not literally already everywhere. |
| |
| ▲ | cogman10 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Presumably a lot of people will charge at home which significantly cuts down the number of stations needed or the traffic to those stations. For example, I have 2 gas stations within a mile of my home. They stay pretty busy because people around me constantly need to fill up. I, on the other hand, basically never visit either of those stations since I switched to an EV. I charge at home. If everyone around me switched to EVs, those stations could not stay in business. There's a grocery store in the same area which makes anything those stations offer obsolete. Those are the majority of gas stations that die with a mass switch over to EVs. There's a gas station for my hometown without an attached convenience store with 300 people there. There's no way that station stays in service if a significant portion of the community switches to EVs. It already struggles to be profitable as is (I know the owner). | |
| ▲ | decimalenough 23 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | A place where you can take a break and grab a coffee is called a cafe, not a gas station. Also, with Chinese manufacturers increasingly pushing out batteries capable of 1000+ km, you'll be able to charge fully at home for increasingly long road trips. | |
| ▲ | Jblx2 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I'm using the definitions: - Gas Station = retail outlet that sells and dispenses gasoline and other petroleum-based fuel products - Charging station = place to charge your EV Could be an interesting long bet. Will the number of retail locations selling gasoline in the UK in the year 2045 be higher or lower than in 2026? | |
| ▲ | idontwantthis 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Charging stations will only need to be on highways if cities are sensible and build slow charging infrastructure (aka normal wall sockets) in parking spaces. Urban gas stations will be a thing of the past. |
| |
| ▲ | throwaway85825 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Is AVgas in a death spiral? It's survived as a niche product for a long time. | | |
| ▲ | Jblx2 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Does anyone have reliable data on the number locations selling avgas in say, the U.S. compared to the number of locations selling automobile grade gasoline? | |
| ▲ | rootusrootus 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | To what extent is avgas effectively subsidized by the existence of gas cars? |
|
| |
| ▲ | 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | [deleted] |
|
|
| ▲ | medler 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| This has already happened in Norway, where 96% of new cars sold are EVs. They didn’t ban combustion but they did support adoption with subsidies and other incentives |
|
| ▲ | triceratops 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| New EVs become used EVs that poorer people can afford. Poor people don't buy new cars. New EVs being expensive is not a poor person problem. |
| |
| ▲ | hdgvhicv 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | The problem is a 50kWh battery in a car is worth more as a battery than a typical £1500 car. The lowest end of the market won’t have electric cars unless the batteries are shagged (early Leafs) And given how insanely cheap petrol is (15p a mile, so £450 for a low mileage runaround) the savings even if electric was free and they weren’t introducing a 3p/mile charge isn’t there. | | |
| ▲ | cogman10 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | A £1500 car is £1500 because it's expected you'll need to replace the engine or transmission pretty soon. That can be up to a £4000 job (£2500 on the low end). And, as it turns out, a brand new 50kWh battery costs around £4000 to manufacture. Used will be cheaper. | | |
| ▲ | quibono 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | With most modern ICE cars everything but the transmission and the engine will fail before those two go out.
Also: I don't think that's the usual case. Plenty of sub 2k cars that will happily keep driving for years (I've had 3 such cars). ~700 mark is where you start seeing 300k mile "finish-them-off"-type cars. | | |
| ▲ | cogman10 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Plenty of EVs will drive for years as well (so long as they have a good thermal system for the battery). So I'm not sure what point is being made. Saying "It costs a lot of money to replace the battery" doesn't mean much as the battery, even if it has 70% of it's original capacity, is still perfectly functional. Very much the same as the engine which also costs a lot of money to replace. | |
| ▲ | g8oz an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | I heard plenty of horror stories involving modern cars and their transmissions and engines. |
|
| |
| ▲ | 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | [deleted] | |
| ▲ | XorNot 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Battery prices are still falling though, it's just demand is enormous. But I works fully expect China to start having "compatible replacement packs" being built once the volume is there to support it. A logical future market is battery-refurbished EVs, just a question of where the crossover point is. |
| |
| ▲ | 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | [deleted] |
|
|
| ▲ | gerdesj 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| "Gas" prices are hiking up here - its about £1.90 per litre of diesel at the moment and petrol isn't much less. In contrast, my cheaper 'leccy rate is now about 25% less at 5.2p per kWh than it was. Electricity is weird in the UK - its pinned to the price of gas and is currently (lol) rather expensive "on peak" at 27.87p per kWh and there is a day standing charge of 47.71p. That's from Octopus. We also have a petrol car - an elderly Renault Clio. It does just run and run and is pretty economic for a pretty shagged out ICE. My EV is cheaper to run, by far. However, its unlikely the battery will last 20 odd years. I haven't yet sat down and done some whole life costs for ICE vs EV yet. My Saic MG4 can do 300+ miles on a 100% charge of its 78kWh battery. After two years, it still manages to exceed its WLTP (with care, when required) and I quite like the ridiculous 0-30 acceleration etc. |