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larodi 9 hours ago

Good, I will with great pleasure now reiterate my point about people now producing their own code, even complex stuff, rather than downloading potentially malicious and foreign code. Which as a tendency threatens ALL clumsy big ERP service providers selling you SAAS.

Go ahead - I'm ready to be down-voted again and again until folks realize it is inevitable, as is inevitable that many companies in the area of business software are going down down down.

tantalor 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I'll down vote just for the whiny attitude and superior tone.

nkapias 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I'm the main dev in a small IT company, my backlog is filled with requests, it's not always easy to prioritize and plan, some of those small projects are ignored for months, yet their business value are sound.

I've observed a new trend, managers who are frequently in the wait list started to use AI to generate small local apps. They still rely on my input when it's complex, or when implementation could generate risks or need resilience and would ask for small code reviews when they are unsure of the generated code quality.

The result is win win, I have more time for high value projects the executives want to prioritize, and managers can innovate faster almost on their own.

makerdiety 3 hours ago | parent [-]

That sounds good enough for me.

DrScientist 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I think the real question here isn't whether roll your own software will replace large complex 'configurable' systems, but whether companies that roll their own will replace the companies that don't.

ie are the efficiency gains of having something that's exactly tailored to you enough to create a competitive advantage.

It's back to the old idea - of software eating the world.

So for example in the UK - there is a relatively new 'energy' company called Octopus - it's grown and grown and finally overtaken the old established players.

In reality it's not an energy company - it's a software company - that used it's expertise in software to overtake it's energy supplier competitors - it was able to provide innovative products in the market because it controlled it's own software - rather than 'big vendor says no'.

I think it's telling that the founder originally left school at 16 to write computer games, before coming back to do a degree etc.

ie the question is - for any particular industry what's the benefit of custom software. Does a bakery having it's own give it enough of an advantage?

alansaber an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Naturally something custom creates advantage as better software mirrors better workflows. I think the more pertinent point is small companies saving money by accessing custom software on the cheap vs paying for a saas forever.

DrScientist a few seconds ago | parent [-]

> I think the more pertinent point

Not sure it is. Unless the Saas company is ripping you off (sure it can happen), then it won't be that much different from your own maintenance costs.

I always think if that's the business case for custom software ( a few quid license cost savings ) then you probably shouldn't be doing it as there is almost always a better ROI case for transformation through custom software.

So back to the bakery case. Is the benefit savings on license costs, or the fact that you can give much better estimates to customers, better de-risk supply chain issues, and hire less people to operate?

All these sort of things have to be more valuable than a few quid on licensing.

arethuza 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I'm a bit bitter about Octopus, although they did rescue us from the horrors of our previous supplier their insistence on us getting "smart" meters that can't then function as smart meters because of poor signal and are actually more difficult to read than our old meters has left me not hugely impressed with them.

DrScientist an hour ago | parent [-]

Wasn't the smart meter rollout ( and the poor choice of hardware etc ) a central government initiative. Octopus merely used their software agility to make the most of it.

ie not sure issues with the smart meters themselves is the fault of Octopus - as the meter standards are set centrally so they can still work if you switch supplier?

Back to another old adage,

"people who are really serious about software should make their own hardware"

arethuza 37 minutes ago | parent [-]

Octopus pressured us into getting smart meters and they're the folks I am speaking to to get the things to work so as far as I'm concerned they're on the hook.

Mind you, I couldn't help noticing that the meters themselves are owned by a leasing company... (there is a plate on each one explaining this).

DrScientist 10 minutes ago | parent [-]

Again I think that's mostly the governments fault - they are setting mandatory smart meter rollout targets for the energy suppliers every year.

jackdoe 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

First slowly then all at once. [1]

[1]: https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/software-applic...

wwfn 2 hours ago | parent [-]

That looks demonstrative! For those that don't want to click, from Aug to Feb S&P is up 10%. "Software - Applications" is down 21%.

But in this context, is Uber[9% weight, down ~4% YTD] a transportation company that roles it's own software for competitive advantage? I think other's in the composition are similar. The takeaway is maybe that the tech landscape is changing or LLMs have spooked investors and they're running without direction. But that doesn't necessarily speak to bespoke software uptake (already) cutting into profits(?) Uber would be fine in that case?

xtiansimon 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> “…big ERP service providers selling you SAAS.”

My work uses these services and it’s interesting to see the divide between companies who have documented APIs (some also with “marketplaces”), and others who have many thousands of dollars partnerships license requirements to get API access.

Or companies who are very restrictive about what they will let you do with their API, presumably in an effort to control the ecosystem around their products—whether it’s because they fear being open would devalue their product, or they have a strong notion of their market position and won’t admit any integration which upsets their governance.

lelanthran 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Which as a tendency threatens ALL clumsy big ERP service providers selling you SAAS.

Wait, what?

The big ERP vendors aren't under any threat, the small ones are.

No business is going to switch from a system that has armies of low-paid consultants to in house AI developed system that has effectively zero consultants who can come in and perform the deployment with tested integrations to their accounting system, their 200 suppliers, their customer systems and their 3rd party auditing systems.

But, small businesses who were not going with a 12m contract for 5 consultants, and who dont have any need for integrations to suppliers, customers and 3rd party systems can do their own systems.

It sounds like you are very far removed from ERP and business systems in general.

All magnetic coding is going to do is further entrench existing large systems because new systems, whether AI generated or not, will be too numerous for any one of them to gain traction.

RobinL 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

My wife's old company, a fairly significant engineering consultancy, ran it's entire time/job management and invoicing system from a company wide, custom developed Microsoft Access app called 'Time'.

It was developed by a single guy in the IT department and she liked it.

About 5 years ago the company was acquired, and they had to move to their COTS 'enterprise' system (Maconomy).

All staff from the old company had to do a week long (!) training course in how to use this and she hates it.

In future I think there will be more things like 'Time' (though presumably not MS Access based!)

lelanthran 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> In future I think there will be more things like 'Time' (though presumably not MS Access based!)

That's my assertion - those things like 'Time' can be developed by an AI primarily because there is no requirement of an existence of a community from which to hire.

It's an example of a small ERP system - no consultants, no changes, no community, etc.

Large systems (Sage, SAP, Syspro, etc) are purchased based on the existing pool of contractors that can be hired.

Right now, if you had a competing SAP/Syspro system freshly developed, that had all the integrations that a customer needs, how on earth will they deploy it if they cannot hire people to deploy it?

spockz 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I still think MS Access was awesome. In the small companies I worked it was used successfully by moderately tech savvy directors and support employees to manage ERP, license generation, invoices, etc.

The most heard gripe was the concurrent access to the database file but I think that was solved by backing the forms by accessing anything over odbc.

It looked terrible but also was highly functional.

RobinL 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Agreed! The first piece of software I built was a simple inventory and sales management system, around 2000. I was 16 and it was just about my first experience programming.

It was for school, and I recently found the write up and was surprised how well the system worked.

Ever since I've marvelled at how easy it was to build something highly functional that could incorporate complex business logic, and wished there was a more modern equivalent.

spockz 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Maybe a combination of AirTable and PowerBI/open-source alternative? Or just ms access backed by a proper database?

jon-wood 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Grist[1] is great for this stuff, at first glance its a spreadsheet but that spreadsheet is backed by a SQLite database and you can put an actual UI on top of it without leaving the tool, or you can write full blown plugins in Javascript and HTML if you need to go further than that.

[1] https://www.getgrist.com/

viraptor 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Just another yay for Grist here! I've been looking for an Access alternative for quite a while and nothing really comes close. You can try hacking it together with various BI tools, but nothing really feels as accessible as the original Access. While it's not a 1:1 mapping and the graphical report building is not really there, you can still achieve what you need. It's like Access 2.0 to me.

fsagx 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Access as a front end for mssqlserver ran great in a small shop. Seems like there was a wizard that imported the the access tables easily into sqlserver.

I've not seen anything as easy to use as the Access visual query builder and drag-n-drop report builder thing.

mschild 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> No business is going to switch from a system that has armies of low-paid consultants to in house AI developed system

Are you sure about that? Because thats exactly what Klarna is doing/has done.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1957789124930286065.html?...

mrkeen 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> We realized 1 million context window is not enough to explain all facets of Klarna > Every new thread of AI is the same employee starting from scratch again. First day at the job.

Agents are limited. With you so far.

> This week we get a demo of a vibe coded frontend that is more beautiful and easy to use than any ticket management system I have seen

Again, totally matches my expectations. Agents totally make pretty stuff that looks like working software.

I just haven't drunk enough management wine to connect the dots and figure out these facts support a jira replacement.

It also gets me wondering, if Atlassian leaned more heavily into AI (More vibe coding, more agents, more layoffs) would they have been able to keep the Klarna contract?

lelanthran 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> Are you sure about that? Because thats exactly what Klarna is doing/has done.

That link does not say that they are switching away from a system that requires armies of consultants to implement.

AFAICT, they are switching away from Jira (Atlassian/confluence products). Those are not ERP systems.

Once again, I must point out that the these sorts of assertions reveal that the person making the assertion has never been involved in an ERP rollout, neither a big one nor a small one.

And, again, I reiterate, the only threat is to small players in the market, who don't have a community to hire from. Because to become a big player, you need to gain traction as a small player, and if every small ERP system can be replaced with an AI generated system, non single one is ever going to gain traction (Why pay $10/user/month for a basic system when you can have AI generate that for a once of fee and some employee time?)

mschild 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Workday is not an ERP? Beyond that, they're effectively replacing major stacks of traditional SaaS tools with in-house ones. Considering the scale and complexity of what Klarna does and the regulations it has to follow across many different markts, I'd say its a valid concern. Now, I don't think SAP etc are going anywhere, especially in traditional businesses where most of the company is reliant on it, but it seems there is a way to do it.

That said, plenty of banks still run on mainframes and use COBOL.

https://www.salesforceben.com/klarna-salesforce-workday-part...

lelanthran 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Well lets see how it works out for them - they're ending the partnership for HR software in order to build their own, but they say they haven't built anything yet!

larodi 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> It sounds like you are very far removed from ERP and business systems in general.

am I really? it sounds so many people in big ERP service providers are oblivious of the tide rising that will wash them away, because you know what - most of these companies are super pricey, super slow, very messy and tend to fail large-scale projects that cost millions? I've seen this happen personally, and I have personally, as a sole player implemented ERPs with custom inhouse software.

Trust me brother, I know ERPs very well and seen hundreds of high-profile fakers that have zero knowledge of E/R, Business Architecture, and integrations, that still believe they can get away with nonsense.

Hope you're not one of them.

lelanthran 5 hours ago | parent [-]

> Hope you're not one of them.

I've been part of enough ERP contracts to know that customers evaluate their options based on how easy it is to hire consultants on the open market.

I did do quite a lot of custom software prior to AI-slop, and that market is completely destroyed with vibe-coding agents. The ERP one looks like it is simply going to further entrench the big players, because new ERPs evolve from some custom application, and once that pipeline is gone, your choices are going to be "build it yourself with no ability to hire for it" or "Go with one of the existing behemoths".

My argument is that AI will remove the pipeline that leads to incumbents seeing more competition.

darkwater 4 hours ago | parent [-]

> on how easy it is to hire consultants on the open market.

In the not not so distant future (5 years? 10?) that consultant market will be of people with very good process knowledge and very good prompting skills. Which might or might not be in a good part the same consultant market we have today.

newsclues 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

You think the big players aren’t going to use the new tools to massively cut employees and costs?

dv_dt 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I think some the prevalence of AI is actually turning the bias on this. It would actually be a return to the roots of the start of early business computing - and sort of picking up where excel et al left off. I don't think it's AI the tech itself, it's the confidence for companies to build a customized software stack and maintain it is what AI mostly contributes.

ramshanker 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Not just that, previously many orgs outsourced to consultancy, now when the consultancies also start outsourcing to AI, sooner all business may cut the middleman and have inhouse it teams outsourcing work to AI instead of consultancies !

haunter 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> rather than downloading potentially malicious and foreign code

So I shouldn't download and use this right? I can't verify if it's potentially malicious or not

larodi 3 hours ago | parent [-]

I meant random gh repos really here, though same argument stands for SAAS which is very very very much interested in your data, and you have exactly zero guarantees and control over what happens to it once ingested. Like - GDPR exists not to protect users, but to enforce anonymization of the data that is then going to be aggregated and sold.

Now imagine my not-so-complext ERP or internal system - can be developed with little or no effort. Why would I give Benioff my dollars rather than spend it on in-house assets, that also increase the valuation of my company? I find very little reason to do so in 2026.

deofoo 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

100%

risyachka 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

You do realize that making software by developer for his wife means for random business is hiring a third party dev to build custom software?

So still, for ransom business much cheaper and better to buy software from SaaS vendor.

In this case it was better ONLY because the client is the wife of the developer.

And even now, if he sells this to other businesses - it will be MUCH cheaper to buy his subscription than homebrew the same version of it - as if it starts selling it he will be adding features and support which requires time (which is money).

larodi 5 hours ago | parent [-]

> You do realize that making software by developer for his wife means for random business is hiring a third party dev to build custom software?

No, this is not true. There are so many non-technical users of Microsoft Access that run their won businesses without hiring anyone. A friend of mine had a business with an yearly turnover shy of $3M (which is small, alright) and it was running wired spreadsheets and google forms. 20 people. He never ever bought any software, and existed for more than 10 years, until his wife (yes his waifu) decided to divorce and bring the company down.

Business Architecture is not so much about writing the software, sorry, we as IT professionals would love to think it is, but this is a super weak bias.

germinalphrase 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Almost every SMB I interact with sounds like this company. Was it founded more than 10 years ago? Probably holding the ship together with spreadsheets and email.

deofoo 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

So true, we devs are so stuck in our own bubble