The fab in Washington is very old (notice it's still equipped for 8 inch wafers) and so pretty irrelevant to Nvidia's business.

I'm not quite sure what process they run there but I believe it was an acquisition 10+ years ago, not built from the ground up by them.

Edit: their Japan fab is also a mature node so not very relevant here. And their Arizona fab is a very very small portion of their volume and with far worse margin.

There's approximately 0% chance that China will ship leading edge wafers from captured TSMC to the West.

Yes, lots of other companies would be affected to a greater or lesser extent (even non-tech stocks), but specifically any company that relies on manufacturing all their product in Taiwan will be affected most of all.

Industrial military complex and government contractors.

Gold stocks, basic materials, MSCI world and emerging market indexes. Look at their prices and see how very smart people are positioning their money.

The whole economy will crash. Probably won't be due to China invading Taiwan though. More likely because the president decided to delete their country's world reserve currency status (which is another word for a trade deficit).

They already have.

Well, the reality is that most people don't want a bloodbath and it's increasingly looking like external support won't come, so what you gonna do... life is a very complex chess game, gotta play your pieces right.

At this rate, even if they can't get the Taiwanese population to consent, it probably makes more sense to wait anyway to see how low America can sink. The lower America goes, the better their chance for success.

Where do you see the pro china side getting more and more support? As far as I can tell it's sharply swung towards maintaining independence in the past decade or two with single digit support of unification with the mainland.

https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963

https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/upload/44/doc/6963/Tondu202512.png

An EU type agreement will keep peace for some time. Remove all trade barriers between two countries, have a treaty preventing any side to be used militarily by third party, no attacking each other and free movement of all vessels through each other's seas. Maybe few more

I think Taiwanese elites can be bought, they say they can’t but I think that’s just part of the bargaining for a higher price. The overtures towards a costly and destructive invasion is Chinas attempt at lowering that price. As is the strategy of building up an indigenous chip manufacturing industry. The aggressive rhetoric from China has the added benefit of keeping the US on a self sabotaging aggressive posture.

I mean that's obviously the best outcome for the Chinese government. Same thing that happens/ed to Hongkong. War is bad for everybody.

If the US is fighting with Europe and South America, China might not that many.

Russia invading Ukraine also made zero sense, given their actual capabilities and the likely (now realized) consequences. The leader doesn't always have the best information, it turns out.

Either that, or the leader does have access to the best information, and they just DGAF. That condition seems to be going around too.

Arizona fabs don't work without TW's many sole source suppliers for fab consumables. They'll likely grind to halt after few months when stock runs out. All the dollar shuffling's not going to replace supply chain that will take (generously) years to build, if ever.

They definitely made at least one wafer in Arizona in October.

Packaging? Assembling onto boards?