Going to zero is one potential outcome. Equally plausible is it goes up 10% in a relatively quick battle or diplomatic outcome which ends the geopolitical uncertainty.

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rwmj 12 hours ago | parent [-]

There's approximately 0% chance that China will ship leading edge wafers from captured TSMC to the West.

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wordpad 12 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Not true, it might be something they compromise on to restore relations

	▲	IsTom 11 hours ago \| parent [-]
		That's possible only if fabs are operational after the invasion.

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eagerpace 12 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

This is the beauty of Polymarket. Then bet on it. There are so many more outcomes possible to this conflict than what you see reported in the media. Don't be so reductive.

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rbtprograms 12 hours ago | parent [-]

[flagged]

	▲	u8080 11 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		Short the stocks then, lol. When people do this kind of predictions, they often driven by emotional reaction. Best thing to switch actual evaluation on certain hypothesis is to make actual risks cost something.
	▲	eagerpace 12 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		Im not recommending it, but the subject here (shorting the most valuable company on earth) is pretty degen to begin with.