China invading Taiwan makes zero sense, they just flex those muscles for domestic consumption. They will probably take over Taiwan, but they'll do it how modern major powers do anything: propaganda, influence campaigns, and soft power.

Russia invading Ukraine also made zero sense, given their actual capabilities and the likely (now realized) consequences. The leader doesn't always have the best information, it turns out.

Either that, or the leader does have access to the best information, and they just DGAF. That condition seems to be going around too.