China has been dumping massive amounts of resources in this for at least 20 years, this (Making chips domestically with local tech) has been a long term goal for a very long time. The chip ban is relatively recent. IF it had an effect it was merely expediting a process that was going to happen regardless. China was NEVER going to be content importing Western chips or western machines to make chips indefinitely.

> China is already catching up.

Sure of course, just like COMAC vs Airbus/Boeing, BYD vs Western EVs etc.

But this is a bit different IMHO.

First there's still a lot of catching-up to do.

And second are they going to be able to gain sufficient marketshare in the Western market ? I am thinking here, both in terms of displacing ASML and in terms of Western companies being willing to depend on Chinese tech for such critical activities.

> They have a desktop-sized 14nm EUV

Who falls for this crap? An ASML EUV machine costs over $100 million and is delivered in dozens of shipping containers, taking up 2 floors in a fab.

You're going to need really extraordinary evidence that the PRC has a "desktop sized EUV machine" if you want us to believe you.

Xiami have designed a 3nm chip, however I am not convinced SMIC have a process for them to build the chip at any scale yet. Let's see - eventually China will obviously have a process comparable to TSMC but I think currently they are at least 18 months behind. They were 5 years behind before the sanctions so they are catching up fast.

They would be catching up anyway. At least now there will be a second source for the tech. ASML does fantastic work but they may not have all the answers.

It's the lack of 996 grindset holding Europe back.

Laptop sticker "This machine feeds bureaucrats". /s

With very bad results. I was walking a fab in China a few years ago: all machines are German, Japanese and Dutch. I asked why they don't have Chinese ones: the cto said they exist for the German and Japanese machines but they break much faster so it is not worth it and the asml machines are not there at all in any type of competitive form. It will happen, just not yet I guess.

A better example is the EUV lithography light sources used by ASML. They are manufactured in the US by a US company ASML acquired with technology licensed from US government labs. That critical part of the business is American in all but name.

It is possible that the EU could develop their own state-of-the-art lithography light sources but for now ASML is dependent on the US for it.

Silicon for solar cell production is currently being mined and refined in Sweden. What would it take to adapt that production line for semiconductor-grade silicon, I wonder.

> Meanwhile the EU

What do you think the EU is? It's not a country, not a federative union. These things need a lot of discussions and synchronization among member countries, it does not work otherwise, so it takes time. I also hold the opinion that time is a resource the EU does not have, so it badly needs to reform itself - its framework no longer works for this "new age".

The EU can't really do anything. The EU is a loose confederation of countries that delegate responsibilities to this united body.

Japan is a single country with a single government that can unilaterally decide what it wants to do.

> They make one of the many machines you need for semiconductor manufacturing.

That's an especially obtuse way of minimizing the significance of their manufacture of the most complex machine ever made.

ST Microelectronics makes 18 nm chips and 6 out of their 7 fabs are in Europe: https://www.st.com/content/st_com/en/about/manufacturing-at-...

That is incompeten5 leadership no? If your talent wants to move...

One of our problems (EU citizen here too) is the delusion that because everyone in the world wants access to European markets, everyone will bend their knees to our regulations and we can effectively dictate the world's standards.

Given that our market share on the global economy is dropping steadily, this won't hold forever. By 2040 or so it might be more advantageous for Asian producers to just avoid our bureaucratized space altogether.

Already this year we had a showdown with Qatar over some ESG reporting and we lost handily, because we needed their gas more than they needed our money.

You're saying that like the two are at odds. France is a military superpower with almost entirely France, worst case scenario western EU, based supply chain. Italy, Spain, to a lesser extent Germany are too. Manufacturing is also pretty strong across (most) of the EU. Automotive is struggling in Germany, but booming in France (Renault are killing it). Leading in Aeronautics too. It's just mostly high value manufacturing. In the EU, 25% of the economy is in manufacturing. Compare with 10% in the US.

And those regulations are, more often than not, for everyone's benefit - at least EU, but often the Brussels effect applies so a lot of the rest of the world benefits too.

>Imagine a government that considers its people more than tools for the wealthy to use and discard as they see fit!

Most European governments are for a long time now pushing migration hard overtly or subversively(since it's unpopular) arguing as if they're importing tools for the economy.

I wouldn't call European governments considering its people. Basically all of European countries suffer from housing crisis and nothing is being done to actually address it.

Right now, sitting in Europe, wishing that Brussels was just ever so slightly more functional, you look out into the world and see how everyone else is doing, and you're reminded that things isn't actually that bad.

"simultaneously destroying its international position"

US has been doing the same thing for last 200 years and you act like its been different ???

oh, is that because you dnt get benefit as opposed to instability that US cause like middle east, south america, africa and asia ????