China is already catching up. They have a desktop-sized 14nm EUV machine, and Xiami is setting up a 3nm manufacturing line, both entirely with local tech. Thanks USA for the export ban.

China has been dumping massive amounts of resources in this for at least 20 years, this (Making chips domestically with local tech) has been a long term goal for a very long time. The chip ban is relatively recent. IF it had an effect it was merely expediting a process that was going to happen regardless. China was NEVER going to be content importing Western chips or western machines to make chips indefinitely.

> China is already catching up.

Sure of course, just like COMAC vs Airbus/Boeing, BYD vs Western EVs etc.

But this is a bit different IMHO.

First there's still a lot of catching-up to do.

And second are they going to be able to gain sufficient marketshare in the Western market ? I am thinking here, both in terms of displacing ASML and in terms of Western companies being willing to depend on Chinese tech for such critical activities.

Xiami have designed a 3nm chip, however I am not convinced SMIC have a process for them to build the chip at any scale yet. Let's see - eventually China will obviously have a process comparable to TSMC but I think currently they are at least 18 months behind. They were 5 years behind before the sanctions so they are catching up fast.

> They have a desktop-sized 14nm EUV

Who falls for this crap? An ASML EUV machine costs over $100 million and is delivered in dozens of shipping containers, taking up 2 floors in a fab.

You're going to need really extraordinary evidence that the PRC has a "desktop sized EUV machine" if you want us to believe you.

They would be catching up anyway. At least now there will be a second source for the tech. ASML does fantastic work but they may not have all the answers.