| ▲ | constantcrying 4 hours ago | |||||||
>are killing it in them (best selling EV in the EU, Renault 5). What, if it's not a global behemoth dominating the world, it doesn't count as manufacturing? What exactly is your argument here? My argument is that China is producing EVs of the same quality for 70% of the cost. European wealth comes from exports. >This is assuming that the Chinese competition would be allowed to compete on the same terms, which we already know won't happen - both the EU and the US have put in tariffs. And we can see that a low cost Dacia EV is similarly priced to a low cost BYD EV. Exactly. The European car industry only exists because China is not allowed to compete, this is my point. There is no German/French/Italian car export industry anymore. Who is buying a German or French EV when he could be buying a better car for the same price or the same quality car for a lower price. The car market for these companies will shrink from the entire world to Europe, surely you can see that this is an existential threat to European manufacturing. >And we can see that a low cost Dacia EV is similarly priced to a low cost BYD EV. Yes, this is exactly what I am saying. A BYD EV with 27% tariffs applied is cost competitive to the lowest end Renault Platform. In other words, the only reason Dacia is selling any cars is because BYD is not allowed to compete. On the topic of aircraft engines. The Chinese have mastered almost every technology the west has, it is delusional to think that they will never make competitive aircraft engines. You are correct, COMAC will take more than a decade to compete with Airbus, but with the current trajectory it is practically inevitable they will catch up. | ||||||||
| ▲ | sofixa 3 hours ago | parent [-] | |||||||
> European wealth comes from exports That's certainly a claim. The EU market is pretty big, and has multiple avenues for growth (the whole of the Balkans is either in the EU but catching up, or outside the EU begging to be let in). It's not axiomatic that the EU needs to export to the whole rest of the world. And even if it is, there are plenty of countries that have an appetite for European goods for a variety of reasons (be it luxury or just quality associations, or innate hatred of China, like in India or South Korea). > Exactly. The European car industry only exists because China is not allowed to compete, this is my point Alternatively, because Chinese dumping is not allowed to destroy the European car industry, if we're only talking in economic terms. But the reality is that cars aren't that simple, as a market. For many cars are a status symbol, or otherwise everyone would be driving Dacias and Skodas and nobody would be buying Porsches vs VWs. > There is no German/French/Italian car export industry anymore. Who is buying a German or French EV when he could be buying a better car for the same price or the same quality car for a lower price. Of course there is. Stellantis, Renault, VW Group are selling well in their local markets, across Europe and various other markets (e.g. the US for Stellantis). > On the topic of aircraft engines. The Chinese have mastered almost every technology the west has, it is delusional to think that they will never make competitive aircraft engines Never said never, said their own timeline is a decade, for something competitive to the previous gen, while in a decade we'll be two generations ahead. Considering Chinese aerospace engineering has been struggling with engines forever, and Russia never managed to get close, ever, I wouldn't bet on China suddenly being able to leapfrog their own timeline. > You are correct, COMAC will take more than a decade to compete with Airbus, but with the current trajectory it is practically inevitable they will catch up. They will catch up to ~previous generation (A320ceo), by then Airbus will already have the replacement to the current gen (A320neo, future gen not named yet). So China will still be ~2 decades behind, in a decade-ish. Yes, they will definitely catch up by some point in the ~2050s, so what? Airbus caught up to Boeing, and there is enough market to go around for both. Embraer is in the process of catching up too. There being one more new entrant on the (again, only short to medium haul) passenger jet market, in a decade, really isn't the end of the world you're making it out to be. | ||||||||
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