The money Germany "wasted" on renewables brought down prices a lot, triggering massive investments, which was the plan. My prediction is that even France will scale down nuclear power for fiscal reasons alone - they would need to build new reactors now as a long-term replacement - but it does not look too good.

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ViewTrick1002 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

France keeps talking about the EPR2 program but the government just collapsed because they are underwater in debt and can't agree on any cuts or increases in taxation.

At this moment to go on a massive spending spree for a dead-end nuclear project is not a very sane policy.

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seec 2 days ago | parent [-]

Investing in the futur when you have a hard time creating more value than you consume is exactly what you need to do. Reducing investment is precisely the way to reinforce the downward feedback loop. If they want to keep taxing the common man, they need them to create more value otherwise to are just taking larger and larger share of vanishing small value.

France does have money; it's just all concentrated in the boomer generation who is fighting hard to keep control. A large share of the debt is generated to keep this gerontocracy confortable at the expense of the youth and future.

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ViewTrick1002 2 days ago | parent [-]

Which means you need a return on the investment for it to work. Creating self sustaining industries that don’t need subsidies.

Tossing an absolutely mindbogglingly large subsidy to the 70 year old nuclear industry which never has delivered competitive products is not a good use of money. It is like saying we create value by going around breaking windows and paying people to fix it.

France’s problem is that if they don’t fix the spending issue on their own the bond market will do it for them. Maintaining the debt will be a larger and larger portion of the budget until the only option is solving the issue.

Cutting spending will lower GDP and push up debt as a percent of GDP. But it wasn’t real income when the debt you took on did not lead to productive outcomes. Just polishing a pig.

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mpweiher 2 days ago | parent [-]

Er...nuclear is already self sustaining and has a great ROI for the French (and pretty much everyone else).

Even the most catastrophic nuclear construction project the French ever had, Flamanville 3, will have better ROI than intermittent renewable projects.

What doesn't make sense is throwing more good money after 25 years of subsidies at intermittent renewables that have yet to show a positive ROI.

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ViewTrick1002 a day ago | parent [-]

I’m not sure where to begin. Please stop straight up lying? Nothing in this comment is correct.

In France the battle is over how large the subsidies needs to be to even get started on the EPR2 program. Driven by EDF is too financially weak to take on more projects after the recent boondoggles and that new built nuclear power simply does not deliver electricity at a price the market accepts.

That does not sound very self sustaining.

Regarding Flamanville 3 you are likely citing the report with a discount rate lower than the inflation and a 40 year pay back time, while comparing to the first ever off shore wind farm in France. You know, a prototype as regards to working with French industry and bureaucracy.

For anyone even having a slight economic understanding the writers of that report are shouting from the rooftops that investing in nuclear power is pure lunacy. But shrouded in a language allowing lobbyists and blindingly biased people to cite it.

I also love how the fastest growing energy source in human history, for which subsidies are being phased out as we speak, haven’t shown a positive ROI.

What do I now. All that private money going into renewables are calculated in making a loss.

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mpweiher a day ago | parent [-]

My comment is exactly correct.

EDF gets subsidies from the state for their renewables projects.

EDF pays nuclear profits to the state. And to the rest of French industry via the ARENH program.

Facts.

That private money going into renewables is great at getting guaranteed state subsidies.

It's the best business model ever.

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natmaka a day ago | parent | next [-]

> It's the best business model ever

In France the Cour of Audit concluded that electricity produced by the EPR must be sold at 138€/MWh (2023 value) in order to obtain a tiny ROI (4%). This is a financial disaster. Proof page 29: https://www.ccomptes.fr/fr/publications/la-filiere-epr-une-d...

Renewables, on the other hand... While many reactors were down in France (intermittency, anyone?) they did cope: https://www.iea.org/reports/renewable-energy-market-update-j...

Renewables: a modest gain... 7 billions €! Source: official Commission in charge in France, page 4 https://www.cre.fr/fileadmin/Documents/Deliberations/2024/24...

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mpweiher 20 hours ago | parent [-]

Once again: EDF receives subsidies for their renewables projects.

	▲	natmaka 10 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I just sourced official reports, and for EDF I already answered (in French, sorry, if necessary a software translator does the job): https://sites.google.com/view/electricitedefrance/accueil#h....

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ViewTrick1002 a day ago | parent | prev [-]

I love this. Just pretend that no new nuclear power needs to ever be built and it is economical based on the current economics of soon half a century old paid off plants.

Since the EPR2 program is in absolute shambles and the subsidy scheme hasn’t been finalized just pretend that it doesn’t exist!

They are only talking about CFDs, zero interest loans and credit guarantees! Those doesn’t cost money! Not until they start being paid out! Therefore does new built nuclear power does not need any subsidies. QED.

Or the French were talking about it. Until the government collapsed due to being underwater in debt with a spending problem they are unable to reign in.

We all know the one way to solve a spending problem is an unfathomably large handout to the dead-end nuclear industry!

Please. This is getting laughable. Facts be damned, just ignore reality and with a scalpel cherry pick a few disjointed facts.

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mpweiher 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> The money Germany "wasted" on renewables brought down prices a lot,

It massively increased the price of electricity in Germany. And the same holds true of pretty much every other location that tried it.

And it did remarkably little for CO₂ emissions, massively increased our dependence on cheap Russian Gas thus emboldening Putin, cemented our fossil fuel dependence for reliable base load, entrenched our dependence on China.

On the whole, "wasted" is putting it kindly.

Yes, the prices of the generating equipment have come down from truly astronomical to only "not competitive without massive subsidies".

Had we spend the same money on nuclear power plants, we would have long been done with the decarbonization of our electricity sector, and probably well into the electrification and ensuing decarbonization of the other sectors as well.

Except we would have found it difficult to spend that much on nuclear power plants, because even at the price of the messed up EPR prototypes, the same money would have bought us over 50 reactors. At the price of the first three Konvois, around 100, adjusted for inflation and some increases. But when you build 50-100 reactors of the same kind (that's important: don't make every new one different like we used to do), the cost does go down.

France is increasing its fission fleet again, after repealing a law that made such expansion illegal beyond the then existing generating capacity 63.2 GW.

The goal of a reduction of the nuclear share to below 50% was also repealed. I do believe that the share of nuclear in France will decrease somewhat, because intermittent renewables can let the nuclear plants run at higher efficiencies by taking up some of the variability that is currently handled by the nuclear plants.

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uecker 19 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Come, please do not repeat all this nonsense from the tabloids. First, you need to specify what prices you talk about. If you talk about household prices, then yes those increased. This, btw, was also intentional. The system was designed in this way to encourage energy conservation. It certainly got too far, but this is largely a political issue. In France prices were kept low artificially (which did not help the nuclear industry!). So these prices do tell you exactly nothing about the merits of the technology, and more about politics.

That reliance on Russian gas was increased is complete BS. Only a very small amount of gas which is imported is used for electricity production (10% or so) and it is certainly not true that this (relatively small) amount increased. In 2024, 80 TWh of electricity were produced from gas. In 2010 it was 90 TWh. In that time frame, renewables increased from 105 TWh to 285 TWh. 1.

CO2 emissions went down with roll-out of renewables exactly as expected2) Coal use for electricity production went down from 263 TWh in 2010 to 107 TWh in 2024. In fact, CO2 emission went down faster than planned which is the reason Germany still managed to meet climate targets despite other sectors (heating and transportation) not meeting their targets. That Co2 emissions for electricity production are still higher compared to some others is that there is still a lot of coal in the system (and electricity from that was already exported a lot until recently). But once coal is pushed out completely then this will be gone. The only real conclusion here is that the energy transition was started to late and is not fast enough. The past, nobody can change, but it would certainly be much slower when building nuclear plants now.

France wants to double down on nuclear for political reasons and my prediction is that they will fail because they can not afford it. They have huge fiscal problems and they did not invest enough to renew their nuclear fleet in the past, sold electricity too cheap (so could not build up reserves), and would now have to invest a lot, but their nuclear industry is in a horrible state and their state dept is out of control already.

1.https://ag-energiebilanzen.de/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/STR... 2.https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/themen/co2-emissionen-pro-kil...

	▲	uecker 18 hours ago \| parent [-]
		The "Russian gas" argument is so grotesque also because Germany quickly stopped important gas from Russia after the start of the attack on Ukraine, but neither Europe nor the US has stopped importing nuclear fuel from Russia.

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natmaka 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

>> The money Germany "wasted" on renewables brought down prices a lot,

> It massively increased the price of electricity in Germany.

We all have to consider the total cost on the long term. I analyzed it for France. I wrote it in French, sorry, but AFAIK software does not distort it: https://sites.google.com/view/electricitedefrance/accueil#h....

> And it did remarkably little for CO₂ emissions

Nope: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/carbon-intensity-electric...

> massively increased our dependence on cheap Russian Gas thus emboldening Putin

True, sadly, however consider that nuclear didn't save France which is even more dependent (while less industrialized). French ahead: https://sites.google.com/view/avenirdunucleraire/transition-...

> Had we spend the same money on nuclear power plants

France ("Flamanville-3" reactor) and the US (Vogtle, VS Summer) did so, and it failed.

> Except we would have found it difficult to spend that much on nuclear power plants, because even at the price of the messed up EPR prototypes, the same money would have bought us over 50 reactors.

Once more: source? The most serious allegations published state about official investments previsions until 2050, and not only for renewables (grid maintenance is a)

> don't make every new one different like we used to do

... therefore if a potentially dangerous defect is discovered you will have to shut them down all. No more juice, yay! It nearly happened in France recently, and the shock was alleviated by the fact that the fleet is NOT made of identical reactors, and therefore a fair part could produce.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France#Crisis...

> France is increasing its fission fleet again

Not really. The last project (Flamanville-3) started in 2004, work on the field started in 2007, the reactor was to be delivered in 2012 for 3.3 billion € and only started a few months ago (it did not yet reach full power) for at least 23.7 billion €. https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2025/01/14/epr-de-fl...

Even the official report about it states explicitly that this building project was a failure.

There are claimed intentions to build at least 2 new reactors since 2022, nothing else.

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mpweiher a day ago | parent [-]

> [renewables massively increased electricity prices, not decreased them as claimed]

> We all have to consider the total cost on the long term.

Yes, we do. When you consider long term, it gets even worse for intermittent renewables. Nuclear, on the other hand is a license to print money when you consider the long term.

> I analyzed it for France.

With all due respects to your "analysis", the French auditors came to a different conclusion.

> Nope [to having little effect on CO₂ emissions]

The graph you linked to proves my point: the reduction is laughable. France's specific CO₂ emissions are less than 1/10th of Germany's per kWh. Have been for decades, at a fraction of the cost.

> France ("Flamanville-3" reactor) and the US (Vogtle, VS Summer) did so, and it failed.

Again, the opposite is true. Those projects did not "fail". They all produce reliable power, which intermittent renewables cannot do, at better prices than intermittent renewables.

Of course, compared to other nuclear projects, they were massive failures, but not when compared to intermittent renewables. The standards are just so different.

And your reasoning is also wrong: those projects "failed" (relative to other nuclear projects) precisely because far too little was being built. They are all First of a Kind (FOAK) builds, and built in countries that built little to no new nuclear in the last 20-40 years.

FOAK builds are slow and expensive (and slow is extra expensive, as most of the cost is financing, i.e. interest payments). NOAK builds tend to go much quicker and be a lot cheaper. As an example, China builds much faster and cheaper. People incorrectly claim this is because they skimp on safety, labor, tech etc.

Not true. Their first AP-1000 took 9 years, almost as long as Vogtles, especially when you take into account the COVID years. They are now building their version in 5 years. Essentially the same reactor, certainly the same country. Half the time.

FOAK vs. NOAK is the ticket.

> .. therefore if a potentially dangerous defect is discovered you will have to shut them down all.

France's primary problem was lack of maintenance due to the de-emphasis of nuclear during the Mitterand years and deferred maintenance during COVID.

And you don't build just one kind. Build 2-3 kinds and 10-20 of each.

Oh, and don't build them too quick. These things last for 100 years, so to achieve steady state you can't build out your entire fleet in 10-20 years, because then you industry has nothing to build for the next 80-90 years and withers.

> Even the official report about it states explicitly that this building project was a failure.

No it didn't. Relative to the standards of nuclear power plants it was horrific. But even under fairly negative assumptions for the price of electricity it will have "modest" profitability. Which, once again, is better than the best intermittent renewables projects.

And FV3 is not "the nuclear industry". It is that particular project.

> There are claimed intentions to build at least 2 new reactors since 2022, nothing else.

That is false. The current plan is to build 6 EPR2 and later on to build 8 more. Sites have been selected for the first 6, and engineering contracts for the first 2 have been awarded to the tune of several billion €.

If that's "nothing", then can I have just a bit of that "nothing" from you? Can send you my bank details.

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natmaka a day ago | parent [-]

> When you consider long term, it gets even worse for intermittent renewables. Nuclear, on the other hand is a license to print money

Non-backed-up nonsense.

> With all due respects to your "analysis", the French auditors came to a different conclusion.

Once again: source? The reality is that the French Cour of Audit officially declared 5 years ago that there could be no more nuclear project without a financial direct public guarantee. Proof: https://www.challenges.fr/top-news/nucleaire-la-cour-des-com...

Its last report on nuclear, published last January, is TITLED: "DES RISQUES PERSISTANTS" (persistent risks). Proof: https://www.ccomptes.fr/sites/default/files/2025-01/20250114...

> The graph you linked to proves my point: the reduction is laughable

Nope, 538 geqCO2/KWh (2013) to 344 (2024) with a huge coal industry which cannot be quickly phased out and while shutting down all nuclear reactors is very good.

> France's specific CO₂ emissions are less than 1/10th of Germany's per kWh.

The reasons are well-known (France, during the 1960's, had no other option): https://sites.google.com/view/electricitedefrance/messmer-pl...

> at a fraction of the cost.

Nope (TCO), as already exposed (along with sources): https://sites.google.com/view/electricitedefrance/accueil#h....

>> France ("Flamanville-3" reactor) and the US (Vogtle, VS Summer) did so, and it failed.

> Again, the opposite is true

OMG. According to you they are successes, and even official reports conclude that they failed.

> compared to intermittent renewables. The standards are just so different.

That's patently not the trend: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electricity-fossil-renewa...

> those projects "failed" (relative to other nuclear projects) precisely because far too little was being built.

Nope, this appeal to some strong and persistent benefit induced by batching projects is void, and the industry knows it for quite a while: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03014...

> They are all First of a Kind (FOAK) builds

The EPR is explicitly and officially very similar to existing reactors, it only is an evolution of existing designs and not a new concept. Proof: https://recherche-expertise.asnr.fr/savoir-comprendre/surete...

> and built in countries that built little to no new nuclear in the last 20-40 years.

The projects started 15 to 25 years ago, just a few years after the last reactor built before them. Moreover those nations have active reactors fleets and massive public nuclear R&D budgets, therefore the fable "no-one worked on all this" is ridiculous.

> most of the cost is financing, i.e. interest payments

True, but only because the projects were extremely late.

> China builds

Renewables. Facts (sourced! just try to do so): https://sites.google.com/view/nuclaireenchine/accueil

> They are now building

Very few reactors. Their EPR were officially late and overbudget.

> France's primary problem was lack of maintenance

Source? Not at all. The nuclear authority is very, very picky here.

> due to the de-emphasis of nuclear during the Mitterand years

Nope. Mitterrand heavily helped nuclear, and this is now a well-known fact. M. Boiteux, EDF boss at the time, also did reckon it. French ahead: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rvP1zstk68

> and deferred maintenance during COVID.

Source? Not at all, in practice, as many 'Grand Carénage' subprojects were completed in due time while respecting budgets (this is very rare in this industry and was touted). https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_car%C3%A9nage

> to achieve steady state you can't build out your entire fleet in 10-20 years, because then you industry has nothing to build for the next 80-90 years and withers.

In France the solution was to try to sell reactors to various nations, and

>> Even the official report about it states explicitly that this building project was a failure.

> No it didn't.

Wrong, once more. Proof: "La construction de l’EPR de Flamanville aura accumulé tant de surcoûts et de délais qu’elle ne peut être considérée que comme un échec pour EDF". Source: conclusion of the official report analyzing the EPR at Flamanville, page 31

https://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/dyn/media/organes-parleme...

> "modest" profitability. Which, once again, is better than the best intermittent renewables projects.

Source?

> And FV3 is not "the nuclear industry". It is that particular project.

Granted. Which project succeeded since year 2000?

>> There are claimed intentions to build at least 2 new reactors since 2022, nothing else.

> The current plan is to build 6 EPR2

Yes: it only is a plan. Nothing more. And "6" is "at least 2". Right now we only know where 2 of them can theoretically be built (at the existing plant at Penly).

> Sites have been selected for the first 6

Which ones? Sources?

> engineering contracts for the first 2 have been awarded

Yes, for preparatory work. There is a long route ahead...

> If that's "nothing"

Compared to renewables? Nothin' indeed! https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electricity-fossil-renewa...

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mpweiher 20 hours ago | parent [-]

[nuclear license to print money]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbeJIwF1pVY

"Jetzt müssen RWE und Co. die ausgedienten Gelddruckmaschinen sicher abwickeln."

But that was the well-known pro nuclear lobby group...greenpeace.

https://www.greenpeace.de/klimaschutz/energiewende/atomausst...

"Atomkraftwerke sind Gelddruckmaschinen."

But that was the well-known pro nuclear lobbyist...Jürgen Trittin

https://www.presseportal.de/pm/57706/1010574

Anyway, you are just regurgitating the same old counter-factual nonsense as before, and the irrelevant "but China is also building renewables".

Once again: nuclear and renewables are only a contradiction in the minds of anti-nuclear advocates. Industrial nations do both.

> Plan to build 6 then 8 more EPR2 → "only a plan"

That is incorrect. As stated before, the approvals are being sought, 3 sites have been selected and multi-billion € contracts have been awarded.

> Sites have been selected for the first 6

https://world-nuclear-news.org/articles/bugey-chosen-to-host...

> [engineering contracts] → long road ahead

Newsflash: yes, nuclear power plants are big.

Once again: if multi-billion contracts are "nothing", please give some of that "nothing". I will send you my bank details.

Apologies about pointing at Mitterand, that was incorrect. I meant Hollande.

https://www.ewmagazine.nl/kennis/achtergrond/2022/10/bernard...

Translation: 'Green cabal paralyzes the nuclear industry’

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ePZUamAzNA4IzdR1dlkE2wtl...

	▲	natmaka 10 hours ago \| parent [-]
		You quote assertions. It doesn't proves anything about the nuclear industry. An indictment must specify who did what, when, and with what effect. > the irrelevant "but China is also building renewables". No, I state the fact: China is building WAY, WAY MORE renewables than nuclear. > nuclear and renewables are only a contradiction in the minds of anti-nuclear advocates. Industrial nations do both. They try to do nuclear (with meager effects) just like many of them do coal: inertia, political pressure... >> Plan to build 6 then 8 more EPR2 → "only a plan" > That is incorrect. As stated before, the approvals are being sought, 3 sites have been selected and multi-billion € contracts have been awarded. Here, also, only acts prove anything. Everything started in 2022 and, 3 years later, only one site preparation project has begun. >> Sites have been selected for the first 6 > https://world-nuclear-news.org/articles/bugey-chosen-to-host... "Selected" is far from "nuclear-specific work is in order"! > Apologies about pointing at Mitterand, that was incorrect. I meant Hollande. Which action of F. Hollande did hurt the nuclear sector? Not a single one! No, not Fessenheim (French ahead, AFAIK a software translator does the job): https://sites.google.com/view/electricitedefrance/accueil#h.... > Translation: 'Green cabal paralyzes the nuclear industry’ The interviewee, Bernard Accoyer, does not make any specific accusations; it is a conspiracy theory. He is well-known for this in France.