Crazy that they have a $1.4T market cap while having given up their entire business (which was never worth a fraction of that anyway).

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buran77 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Their charging network and carbon credits revenue were probably the more valuable parts of the company. Tesla's current promise and foundation for that valuation is that they'll deliver fully autonomous driving.

But Musk has enough avenues to spin things left and right and bury any losses in the process his DOGE assault helped a lot bury some things already) so he'll do that. He's a showman and he'll manage to steal the show for as long as it takes.

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judge2020 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I think the market is mainly banking on Robotaxi being nationwide in 5 years, and Optimus being ready in 10.

For robotaxi, the last 2 years has shown us that FSD 14 has solved the really hard parts of autonomy, so the next logical step is some percentage of people deciding not to own their next car and instead only getting around by Robotaxi.

This is not a bad play by the market. They're poised to redirect a large amount of the existing cash that people are currently paying to (A) own a car, (B) pay interest on the loan, and (C) pay for car insurance. And C does not carry meaningful risk as autonomous vehicles are de-facto safer drivers.

Then the market is kind of putting their faith in giving Tesla 10 years to apply the same playbook to humanoid robots and all of the jobs that that _could_ replace (remains to be seen how capable they can actually make it and what the economics will look like).

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gordon_freeman 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Waymo is far ahead of them in execution and actually getting people around in major cities. Tesla Robotaxi is still just a concept.

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lotsofpulp 2 hours ago | parent [-]

https://www.tesla.com/robotaxi

>Our fleet of Model Y and Cybercab vehicles offers autonomous rides in cities across the U.S. You can already hail a car in Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, Miami, Orlando and Tampa with more rides arriving in more cities soon.

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grandpajoey 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

They only have ~25 unsupervised rides a day across all markets.

https://autonomixinvestor.com/robotaxi-tracker/

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santoshalper 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If you want any kind of good faith information or analysis on Tesla, you're going to need to ignore tesla.com. They are primarily in the business of selling hope and bullshit.

	▲	judge2020 an hour ago \| parent [-]
		They have a xlsx download on https://www.tesla.com/robotaxi/safety that is somewhat transparent. For example it mentions the two following scenarios where hospitalization is alleged, although neither seem to be caused by the robotaxi car: > The ADS was proceeding straight through a work zone on a street and drove over a pothole at approximately 29MPH. The ADS had two riders present in the vehicle. One customer alleged they sought medical care. > Summary: The ADS was stopped at an intersection stop sign, waiting to turn left and yielding to crossing traffic. An SUV that was stopped behind traffic straight across at a stop sign drove into the oncoming lane passed traffic. The SUV then drove up to the intersection, stopped, and proceeded straight, crossing into the lane and path of a passenger vehicle from their right cross street. The front of the passenger vehicle collided with the right side of the SUV and the SUV's airbags were deployed. Post collision, the SUV's front was pushed into the ADS's lane and collided into the front of the ADS. The ADS was pushed backward, causing its rear to collide with the front of another SUV that was stopped behind it. The ADS had one rider present in the vehicle. The driver of the passenger vehicle from the original collision was transported to the hospital for unknown reason.

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Zigurd an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

500K commercial rides per week paid for by a large user population versus... undisclosed.

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hvb2 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Then the market is kind of putting their faith in giving Tesla 10 years to apply the same playbook to humanoid robots and all of the jobs that that _could_ replace

So when I go for a coffee, I don't go to the place where it's a dollar less expensive because it has a robot...

I'm not convinced we wanted to be helped by a robot, even if it does the same thing.

So the economics might be there.... But that's not the whole story, this isn't automating a production line...

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close04 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The valuation would be realistic only if they were the only ones with a real shot at autonomy or at least a considerable head start, like they did in the EV market. But they don’t.

The real incentive is that Musk won’t let one of his companies “fail”. It will be absorbed into a larger more successful one and keep delivering “investor value”.

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flyinglizard 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Safer drivers I believe, but how do you get around the uncapped liability the service provider carries if someone gets hurt?

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dghlsakjg 2 hours ago | parent [-]

The same way you do it with human drivers is one option. I.e. mandatory liability insurance.

	▲	close04 an hour ago \| parent [-]
		Human drivers pay one insurance, for themselves. It’s easier to swallow because most drivers think they are above average skill. Not so easy when they need to cover someone else’s coding mistakes. And if the company has to pay for every car that self drives that can get ugly fast, one bug and half the fleet has a fender bender.

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origini an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Its a story nothing more.

Tesla fan boys still say that NO ONE else can do self driving despite plenty of companies which do like waymo or Nvidia, Mercedes and BMW.

Then they tell you that no one will own a car anymore but we already have Taxi/Uber and the world hasn't changed much and they complelty ignore basics like traffic spikes for workers.

You don't get good utilization when you can handle everything and low utilization means a LOT of space for waiting cars.

Its the same spiel with Optimus but there people seem to be quite enough and do understand that china is ahead.

Lets ignore the fever dream of Space-Xs payload story...

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judge2020 an hour ago | parent [-]

> Tesla fan boys still say that NO ONE else can do self driving despite plenty of companies which do like waymo or Nvidia, Mercedes and BMW.

Absolutely no one is saying that. The bad faith is people saying that Robotaxi is doomed because it's vision-only. It may end up not being the best approach, but it's looking to be good enough to be performant and still be one of the larger players in the market.

> Then they tell you that no one will own a car anymore but we already have Taxi/Uber and the world hasn't changed much and they complelty ignore basics like traffic spikes for workers.

I'm not saying this either. This is like saying that busses and trains are vaporware because they can't serve 100% of transportation needs.

Some peoples' lifestyles will adapt to this change or already fit within it. A lot of people's won't. Over time, they will gradually close the gaps and/or people will change their own lives to fit it if they'd like to save money on transportation.

	▲	origini an hour ago \| parent [-]
		I'm reading this argument and had discussions with people plenty of times. I then remind them of all the other companies. Does selfdriving work? yes. Is robotaxi a real business? Yes. Thats not the point. The point here is the valuation of Tesla because of it and thats not justifiable. Despite the fact that Tesla originally sold FSD so that everyone can leverage this feature. So either Tesla builds a cheap Robotaxi and floods the market as a car company OR Tesla becomes a competitor on a competitive market. Why would people adjust their lifestyles based on a Robotaxi? We have already Taxis and Ubers. The only chance for 'people changing their lifestyles' is if a Robotaxi is always available and A LOT cheaper which then again breaks the whole valuation of Tesla.