I'm reading this argument and had discussions with people plenty of times. I then remind them of all the other companies.

Does selfdriving work? yes. Is robotaxi a real business? Yes.

Thats not the point. The point here is the valuation of Tesla because of it and thats not justifiable. Despite the fact that Tesla originally sold FSD so that everyone can leverage this feature.

So either Tesla builds a cheap Robotaxi and floods the market as a car company OR Tesla becomes a competitor on a competitive market.

Why would people adjust their lifestyles based on a Robotaxi? We have already Taxis and Ubers.

The only chance for 'people changing their lifestyles' is if a Robotaxi is always available and A LOT cheaper which then again breaks the whole valuation of Tesla.

My main issue with Uber/Lyft/Taxi is the human element (humans sometimes want to chat) and the tipping element. Plus how flakey drivers are - e.g. they might not immediately go to pick you up and could taking detours or pit stops, etc.

To actually switch to it myself, I'd need robotaxi to deliver:

- p99 5 minute wait for ride hailing, including at peak times - 24/7 operation

Longer 200-500 mile trips would also be nice, although then you get into needing robotic and/or wireless charging pads at SCs for road trips to work.

Also, there are a lot of ways some sort of subscription service could be handled. Maybe included usage, maybe I pay to have it ready in my driveway between 6am and 9am (but still to where I don't own it / need to personally insure it). Either way, it won't be hard for it to undercut my current car expenses if I can cut out car insurance.

None of the above is de-facto impossible with automation in the space. In fact, more reliable ops would be easier because the company can predict and dynamically scale how many are running at any given time, purely limited by (non-human) capital, instead of needing to increase their bid for human drivers to accept rides when demand is high.

Although the question is indeed if they can do all of this economically in a crowded space; I don't disagree that $1T is an insane valuation in any respect. Elon's umbrella of companies is all funny money to me.