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| ▲ | bluecalm an hour ago | parent | next [-] |
| Prediction markets are sometimes wrong but they are very accurate on high volume markets like this one. Here we have hyperliquid perpetual futures among other things. Volume on those alone is above 10M USD per day. >>Less sarcastically though the bet on how much AI company IPO at attracts a certain type of people. People who may have a certain believe about AI companies which will bias their assumptions quite a bit. Yeah but there is also someone on the other side. |
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| ▲ | xyzzy_plugh 16 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | They're not very accurate. They are generally accurate with a margin of error big enough that they're far from a sure thing. If they were accurate then no one would take a contrarian position. I'd look at a prediction and say "well obviously the favored side is going to win" and put all my money there, over and over again, until I was the richest mortal in the universe. Polymarket has it at ~50% that their IPO value is between 1.25T and 1.5T. Do you think that is representative of reality? It's not like we get to flip the IPO coin ten times. | |
| ▲ | dofm 22 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | > but they are very accurate on high volume markets like this one But this number isn't a matter of market volume, is it? It's a matter of what analysts, regulators, banks, and investors choose. And they appear to not be that keen on a valuation that high, judging by the press. |
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| ▲ | xvector 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| I mean unless you think the valuation multiple on AI companies have compressed by over 50% in the past week, the prediction markets seem pretty accurate. OpenAI will be just fine, they are building superintelligence. I think these comments will be pretty funny in a few years. This is the best wealth building opportunity of my generation. |
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