They're not very accurate. They are generally accurate with a margin of error big enough that they're far from a sure thing. If they were accurate then no one would take a contrarian position. I'd look at a prediction and say "well obviously the favored side is going to win" and put all my money there, over and over again, until I was the richest mortal in the universe.

Polymarket has it at ~50% that their IPO value is between 1.25T and 1.5T. Do you think that is representative of reality? It's not like we get to flip the IPO coin ten times.

>>If they were accurate then no one would take a contrarian position.

Sure, the price is the weighted average of expectations. People take either side for many reasons though. There would still be a lot of training in a perfectly efficient market because people and institutions have their own utility of money functions and other reasons to take bets (hedging their vesting stock for example).

>>. I'd look at a prediction and say "well obviously the favored side is going to win" and put all my money there, over and over again, until I was the richest mortal in the universe.

>>Polymarket has it at ~50% that their IPO value is between 1.25T and 1.5T. Do you think that is representative of reality? It's not like we get to flip the IPO coin ten times.

Yeah, it's the best guess we have.

>> It's not like we get to flip the IPO coin ten times.

That's very limited frequentist perspective. Just because you can't re-run the experiment doesn't mean you can't assign probabilities to events.