> but they are very accurate on high volume markets like this one

But this number isn't a matter of market volume, is it?

It's a matter of what analysts, regulators, banks, and investors choose.

And they appear to not be that keen on a valuation that high, judging by the press.

In theory though that’s the whole point of the prediction markets. If all analysts truly believe (with conviction) that the number should be <1.2T, then they can put their money where their mouth is in the prediction market that’s currently overshooting their predictions by 20-40%. If they don’t have much conviction, then maybe the stories in the media aren’t their true beliefs or they’re trying to push a narrative.

	▲	dofm 19 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		Why does HN have this "if they won't bet on it, they don't believe it" mindset? In quite a lot of sectors, gambling on a prediction market for an outcome you can influence is frowned upon, unethical, even illegal. To be clear, I am talking about the investment analysts who have a role in setting the IPO price, which is a (then-private) decision, not an outcome of a market. It would almost certainly be a crime for the analysts involved in pricing an IPO to make prediction market bets.