| ▲ | IBM CEO says open weight models are now irresistibly good and cheap on-prem(theregister.com) |
| 101 points by Betelbuddy 3 hours ago | 60 comments |
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| ▲ | jacquesm an hour ago | parent | next [-] |
| It's absolutely true. I have three different setups here, a rig with 8 gpus that I use in either one of two modes (all 8, very heavy model or just one much lighter) and two DGX sparks. I haven't used a paid model in months. Sure, they use a few more tokens and the results may be slightly less good (but this doesn't really matter because I'm still in the loop so it is easy to correct). But the fact that I'm not sharing my work with the paid providers is much more to my liking than having big brother looking over my shoulder at every step and occasionally giving me the 'I can't let you do that, Jacques' treatment. |
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| ▲ | otterley an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | How much did you shell out for this setup? What’s the TTFT and the output tokens/sec rate? How much electricity does it consume? | | |
| ▲ | jacquesm an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | Working on a blog post to document it all, but that will take a few more days. The short version: the big rig is probably $25K, ttft is dependent on how much prefill you have but typically a couple of seconds (2K prefill/sec in one setup, about 500 in the other), tgs 100 to 150 or so depending on what it is doing and how well the speculative decoder works with the current context. Electricity is pretty bad, full tilt it's about 2500W or so but I've power limited it to 1500 to keep it civil. It is not cheaper than using a frontier lab (or at least, I don't think it is), but the independence bit is the important part for me and I don't care if that carries a surcharge, even if it is a substantial one. | | |
| ▲ | glassresearch 34 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | I'm not saying your approach is wrong - but for my workloads, it makes a lot more sense to just pay for a decade (!!!) of Claude Code 20x Max. | | |
| ▲ | jacquesm 9 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | If I want to go out of business that is what I would do. Most of the data I have here could never be shipped to a service provider, I'd be in lawsuits for the next decade or so and die bankrupt. | |
| ▲ | calmingsolitude 14 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | LLM subscriptions are heavily subsidized. I’d be surprised if Claude 20x costed the same after a decade. | |
| ▲ | tjwebbnorfolk 5 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | The bet we (self-hosters) are making is that once these companies IPO, they will be forced to do whatever they have to do to make money. i.e. price increases, more throttling of subscription non-usage-based accoutns, etc. They are subsidizing all of us to the tune of $billions in losses per month. That can't go on for a decade. Probably not even for another 18 months. I still use all the tokens Claude will give me on the max plan. But I also run deepseek v4 locally for overflow and for... contingencies. |
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| ▲ | selcuka 38 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | > It is not cheaper than using a frontier lab Are you comparing to subscription prices or API prices? Because if it's the former it won't last forever. | | |
| ▲ | jacquesm 9 minutes ago | parent [-] | | True, they're subsidized, I'm not. But I don't have their utilization so I figure it would always be more expensive to run this locally. |
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| ▲ | bitexploder 27 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | I mean, I just have 4xV100S GPU and a Macbook Pro w/48GB of RAM and I find it kind of amazing. My server can run Qwen Flash Next at 500 t/s aggregate (about 200 t/s single user). It's pretty great. I use it for local coding and all my worker agents. It is about as reliable as Sonnet 5 for agentic coding. I make 3D models, keep the home network and server updated, fully built ansible files. You do NOT need 20K in hardware to run these models reliably. I built my own inference engine from scratch for fun. You can run Strata on 16-32GB cards at very respectable token rates if you have the standard RAM to go with it. I strongly encourage people to go use this model on OpenRouter and try it out for tasks. I also have a somewhat lobotimized quant of GLM Flash 5.3 working and it's pretty decent too. | | |
| ▲ | jacquesm 7 minutes ago | parent [-] | | V100S is a very good card for some workloads. And they were cheap as well. I have 240G VRAM total which is a good reason why that rig cost as much as it does, and if I were to build it at today's prices it would be even more expensive. | | |
| ▲ | bitexploder 3 minutes ago | parent [-] | | I got mine just a few weeks ago for about $750 each. I am a decent programmer and have Opus optimizing the inference engine. I know enough to keep it on track, but GPU programming is something I have literally never done, before, but now I know enough about Volta and how to optimize it to be dangerous. Kind of ironic, but it's the only way. I just really like this as an option. For a household LLM I have the IQ4_K_XL quant and plenty of capacity for everything you could want in a household LLM and it is trustworthy enough to not rm -rf /, etc. And yeah that is a really nice amount! You can run and compose a lot of interesting models, vision capabilities. IDK. Plus this level of model is far more interactive in the sense that it can implement a well scoped ticket or unit of work but its not going to magically just figure some things out without guidance or a spec :) |
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| ▲ | dansquizsoft an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | > Sure, they use a few more tokens and the results may be slightly less good (but this doesn't really matter because I'm still in the loop so it is easy to correct) I can't wait to use models that are 'slightly less good' when I am at work instead of something like Fable that lets me focus on the problem at hand as much as possible rather than also spending additional effort correcting for the tool I am using... | | |
| ▲ | sp527 an hour ago | parent [-] | | You need to reread what was written. No one is proposing to take away your right to leak proprietary edge to the rapacious frontier labs that need to eat most of the economy in order to survive. |
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| ▲ | jains99 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| But hardware to run them is conveniently something IBM would be happy to sell you. |
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| ▲ | jacquesm an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | If IBM would ship a piece of affordable hardware that can run large LLMs efficiently I'd be lining up. | | |
| ▲ | solyin an hour ago | parent [-] | | "Affordable" and "IBM" don't belong in the same sentence together, but they're happy to sell you their inference-capable hardware if you've got the wallet for it. | | |
| ▲ | jacquesm an hour ago | parent [-] | | I don't agree with that. They made the PC revolution possible by making hardware that was at least affordable enough to be bought by a large number of businesses and individuals. It also set the stage for the clone market. I'm pretty sure that if IBM really set their mind to it that they could do this. That doesn't detract from your overall point that they tend to make overpriced stuff, but I don't think they have to do that. Besides, what's overpriced? NVidia's GB300 workstation sells for 95K euros, a single RTX 6000 is now 20K. Surely even IBM can compete at that level. | | |
| ▲ | rnd0 an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | That was completely accidental and they themselves tried to close the barn door with the PS/2 line in 1987 but at that point it was too late. | | |
| ▲ | jacquesm an hour ago | parent [-] | | True, even so: They still make some pretty impressive hardware. They have access to fab capacity, they know how to make chips. They have the capital. If they really wanted they could do it. | | |
| ▲ | solyin 22 minutes ago | parent [-] | | In what way is the IBM Spyre not what you're asking for? | | |
| ▲ | jacquesm 17 minutes ago | parent [-] | | In a way it is, but I would see that as a starting point, not as the ready solution. They'd need to do what NV has done for their eco-system: fantastic libraries, a credible future upgrade path, easy ordering, manufacturing partnerships, the works. I figure besides the performance gap that they are at least 5 to 10 years behind NV with their present offering. But NVidia is dropping stitches and IBM should take advantage of that. I think IBM sees the Spyre as a reason to sell more Power hardware but that's just not where the industry is right now and I doubt it will be enough to create sufficient demand. Who knows, I don't have any insight in what they're doing there, but there is massive gap between A GB300 workstation and what IBM currently offers. At the same time: the RAM crunch hits all parties and that's a major obstacle as well. | | |
| ▲ | solyin a minute ago | parent [-] | | Yeah. For all the jokes we make about paperclip maximizer, we've figured it out. It's not paperclips, it's RAM. |
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| ▲ | j16sdiz 19 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | It's the "PC-compatible" hardware make those affordable, not PC. | |
| ▲ | dansquizsoft an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > They made the PC revolution possible Yeah they were only half a decade late to the PC revolution back in the day... | | |
| ▲ | wmf an hour ago | parent [-] | | They weren't really late. In many people's minds IBM validated the concept of the PC. | | |
| ▲ | jacquesm an hour ago | parent [-] | | When that happened I'd been working at Tandy (EU version of Radio Shack) for a while and even though we sold computers they were not taken serious until IBM came along and then suddenly we couldn't supply them fast enough. | | |
| ▲ | spopejoy 25 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Was Tandy only EU? In the TRS-80 days the name came up a lot, although maybe just because of the acronym ... 6809E was a good time | | |
| ▲ | jacquesm 21 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Yes, that was the first time I had a 'proper' processor to play with. A Dragon 32 (CoCo clone from the UK). I've never seen Tandy used outside of Europe but then again, I had not traveled as much then as now so it's definitely possible they used the brand on other continents as well. I wonder how many trees were cut for those catalogs :) |
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| ▲ | quailfarmer an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | They haven’t been _that_ IBM for decades | | |
| ▲ | jacquesm an hour ago | parent [-] | | I know. But: they have gobs of money, they still have some talent, they still have a hardware department that I'm pretty sure would jump at a chance to give NV a run for their money. This would require a massive long term investment and a commitment that I'm not sure they would have the stomach for. | | |
| ▲ | alienbaby 16 minutes ago | parent [-] | | "they have gobs of money, " They do? They are a spec in the ocean relative to big players offering inference and training their own models. Pretty sure one thing they are struggling with is the money to compete successfully in the ai game this time around. | | |
| ▲ | jacquesm 12 minutes ago | parent [-] | | 10 billion give or take, market cap 250 billion, 250K employees. That's not a 'spec in the ocean' by normal standards, and IBM is a mature company, not an inflated balloon. |
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| ▲ | numpad0 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Yes but unironically? IBM should be what NVIDIA would be competing with their NVL72 and DGX products. It doesn't make sense that IBM is just watching NVIDIA take its lunch. | | |
| ▲ | jacquesm 2 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | I think they will need a far more aggressive management before such a thing could happen. But I can dream about it. | |
| ▲ | verdverm 20 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | > It doesn't make sense that IBM is just watching NVIDIA take its lunch. If you have ever worked at IBM, it makes total sense. Completely dysfunctional middle management and on up. |
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| ▲ | anukin 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Not till Jensen buys his next leather jacket. |
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| ▲ | djelu an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Considering the disclosed numbers for DeepInfer and the usefulness/popularity of DeepSeek 4.1 Flash, I expect it is inevitable that more companies are going to consider the self-hosting option seriously, and perhaps play with the idea of offering inference as a vendor. |
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| ▲ | trollbridge an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| While he thinks most businesses can build useful AI infrastructure in just two or three racks, he feels many will struggle to get it running.
“The question becomes: how do you do that?” he said. “The question that the enterprise struggles with is: ‘Where are my kernel engineers? Where are the people who worry about the underlying network? Who can make sure that the model is clustered on GPUs that are close to each other in network proximity? Who can make sure that you’re doing the right caching of results so you get an incredible response?’”
Has he heard of “agentic AI”? You simply fire up Claude or ChatGPT and ask it how to do all of the above. |
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| ▲ | liorn 12 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | It's not a one time thing though - onprem inference requires continuous monitoring and tuning to get the most out of your GPUs. Looking at 25-50% performance benefits. Today, it does require dedicated Inference Engineers... | |
| ▲ | Buttons840 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | That's based on the idea that humans can learn and adapt and solve problems, and that's not what companies want to think about when they're seeking a profitable transaction such as hiring. | |
| ▲ | LoganDark an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Do not do that if you can't prompt it correctly. It is a potential disaster waiting to happen. LLMs are likely to pull things off the shelf without real defense in depth and that's a problem. Maybe slightly less if it's only in an internal network, but still. |
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| ▲ | matt3210 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| RIP frontier AI, the top customers can easily self host |
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| ▲ | IncreasePosts 43 minutes ago | parent [-] | | What happens when their competitors decide to pay for a more intelligent frontier model? | | |
| ▲ | selcuka 32 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | What happens when your competitors invest in better and more expensive tools or materials in general? They (potentially) make better products, but those products also cost more. It's turtles all the way down. | |
| ▲ | verdverm 17 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | depends on the economics and much more, the best Ai cannot do a lot of things, 90% of human tasks by some reports we technologists tend to extend what we see and think to other realms where it doesn't make sense |
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| ▲ | collinmcnulty 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Can we please stop giving weight to CEOs talking their book? Like of course IBM wants you to think this, it would be great for them if it’s true. And maybe it is true! But IBM’s CEO saying it’s true tells me just as much as if a frontier lab said it’s not: nothing. |
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| ▲ | SV_BubbleTime 40 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I’ve been in tech for a long time… I have no idea what IBM does. Now, I get that I’m not the customer, that their customer is “business” but not my business… no… bigger business. The biggest of businesses I assume. I think it must either be a club I’m not in, or IBM is three half racks in a trenchcoat submitting invoices for millions to companies where people just pay it because “it’s IBM, it must be important”. |
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| ▲ | jamesfinlayson 7 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Ironically one of the smaller places I've worked at tried to use an IBM product once - I'm still not clear on what it was meant to do or how it was better than any cheaper alternative, so I assume someone in leadership was fooled by a very impressive pitch. Lots of work went into integration and it never went live. |
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| ▲ | CookieCrisp 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| Good enough for the old world, but I'm not so sure it's good enough for what's coming. |
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| ▲ | tomrod 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | What do you think is coming that isn't already in the old world? Cerebras with Claude 8? | | |
| ▲ | LoganDark an hour ago | parent [-] | | OpenAI most likely pushed Cerebras into a contractual agreement not to do business with Anthropic through 2030. ("Most likely" because the names of the companies Cerebras is contractually obligated not to sell to are redacted in public filings) | | |
| ▲ | desolate_muffin 36 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Imagine a regulatory framework so weak that a company feels comfortable to do something this anti-competitive |
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