| ▲ | dguest 4 hours ago |
| I always thought it was about commoditization: sure a SMR might cost 10x more per watt in theory but if you can reliably roll them off the production line without having to redesign each iteration and without the cost overrunning by 10x, it pays for itself. |
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| ▲ | stephbook 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| Still doesn't make sense. We could have standardized the old reactors too. Radioactive material and a bit of water.. there's no reason to design those things a hundred times. France actually did that. France is still shutting down its plants because the rivers are too warm in the summer. As for floating SMBs in the harbour, I don't think climate change will be kind to this idea. |
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| ▲ | SoftTalker 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | We were still learning about flaws and failure modes of nuclear reactors. Designs kept evolving to try to address these. We never got to the passenger airliner model where we had systematically eliminated nearly every failure mode and could produce this on an assembly line. | |
| ▲ | jabl 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > We could have standardized the old reactors too. Yes, but the potential market for GW-size reactors is fairly limited. Now, whether the market for any of these SMR reactors is large enough that any of them will be able to see any of these supposed economies of scale is a big question. | | | |
| ▲ | icantevenhold 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Floating nuclear plants next to a city sound like a recipe for disaster | |
| ▲ | cyberax 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > France is still shutting down its plants because the rivers are too warm in the summer. That's because French nuclear power plants are designed to be directly cooled by river water instead of using cooling towers. The biggest nuclear power plant in the US (Palo Verde Generating Station in Arizona) is cooled by evaporating the treated wastewater, in the desert. | | |
| ▲ | ViewTrick1002 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | All these extra methods of preserving water adds cost, to a technology where paid off plants are struggling. Let alone ruinously expensive new builds. | | |
| ▲ | samus 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | At least these installations don't need to deal with radioactive material directly, so they will have the same financial infact as similar improvements to, say, coal-fired power plants. | |
| ▲ | cyberax 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | They don't materially affect the cost of a nuclear power plant. Cooling towers or evaporating ponds are not expensive. Coal and gas power plants also use them. You just can't easily retrofit them onto an _existing_ power plant. | | |
| ▲ | ViewTrick1002 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | If they were essentially free all plants would be built with them. Evidently they are not free. | | |
| ▲ | cyberax 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | > If they were essentially free all plants would be built with them. Pretty much all the new thermal power plants are (including biomass-burning plants), except in places where cool water is not scarce. It's weird to glomp onto that idea, as if it's some kind of a fatal flaw of nuclear power. |
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| ▲ | oofbey 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | You can’t standardize manufacturing of multi billion dollar facilities. Economies of scale just don’t work that way. Even residential housing has the same problem. There’s too much variation in on-site construction. | | |
| ▲ | bluGill 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Single family homes are very much standardized. You get doors in one of 6 widths (IIRC), and they are all the same height (closet doors are a different height, but otherwise standard). You get windows in a few dozen sizes. You get your wall studs in one of two lengths. And so on. There is a lot of variation of layout possible within the constraints of the standard. However the vast majority of the hard work is done in a factory to standard sizes, and the onsite work is just final assembly to easy to change specs, so there would be no advantage to a standard. | |
| ▲ | bathtub365 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | New suburb housing developments in North America typically use a handful of floorplans that are customized very slightly across many homes specifically so they don’t need hundreds of unique designs | | |
| ▲ | AngryData 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Also the majority of changes someone might want with stud frame construction are simple and require 10 seconds of drawing to show the framer. The whole point of stud frame construction is that you can do basically whatever you want because it is overbuilt and all the connections and joints simple. | |
| ▲ | oofbey an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Right. So why don’t we see residential construction costs fall with this standardization? Because wright’s law / economies of scale don’t work when you are doing all the assembly on site. |
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| ▲ | MengerSponge 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | You absolutely can. Read up on the French nuclear reactor fleet! https://worksinprogress.co/issue/liberte-egalite-radioactivi... There are minor variances locally, but you can make enough components common to benefit massively from economies of scale. |
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| ▲ | _aavaa_ 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| It will reliably cost only 10x, and it theory it will roll of a production line. The AP1000 reactors at Vogtle were explicitly marked for the modular construction as a key selling feature, which would reduce time and cost. It came out 20B over budget and 7 years late. |
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| ▲ | Zigurd 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | It's a great story: in theory you can produce modular components of a full scale nuclear power plant in a controlled environment. In theory. In practice the production line wasn't as controlled as it needed to be and ended up delivering modules that needed significant rework. That caused modules to be delivered and ready out of order. In other words they bought a lot of project management complexity that was hidden behind the theory of modularity. SMRs are turning out to be even more expensive than conventional nuclear power plants, which are so expensive compared to renewables that even without a risk premium they are uncompetitive. | |
| ▲ | manquer 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Vogtle, Hinkley Point C- are all one off constructions and have very expensive regulatory compliance requirements AP1000 (reactor as Vogtle 3/4) in Taishan is estimated to cost $4M-6M /MW compared to $15M/MW+ at Vogtle. if Chinese safety standards seem lax, South Korea does regularly reactors at $4-6M/MW range. Even Flameville 3 in France was significantly cheaper than Hinkley point C (same reactor type), which infamously required some quite ineffective Fish speakers. The EPR2 series (6 reactors) in France is expected to cost considerably less than Flameville did. Key to cheap nuclear - SMR or otherwise is regular construction. SMR makes regular construction more likely as each plant is not a $10-20B+ capex that is a tough sell to tax payers particularly when it inevitably overruns, SMR also potentially have a bit less regulatory hoops to jump through due to their smaller size. | | |
| ▲ | _aavaa_ 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Are we prepared to play kingmaker and pick one SMR design to standardize on so that those can ride their theoretical learning curve (assuming we get enough buyers)? Because politically that doesn't seem likely, and I think we'll end up with the units that do get contracted to be spread across multiple firms, none of which make it out of the expensive first few units. > Even Flameville 3 in France was significantly cheaper than Hinkley point C Per wikipedia: initial cost estimate €3.3 billion, cost in 2020 (6 years before it was done) €19.1 billion, so 5.8x the budget. Supposed to enter operation in 2012, entered in 2026 "only" 14 years late. These are terrible results. That EPR2 series are "expected" to cost less says absolutely nothing. Flameville 3 was expected to cost 83% less too, and I except that if they swindle people for the money to build it we'll see it'll be just as much of an overrun. The nuclear industry seem absolutely incapable of sticking to a timeline or budget. And any one of these failures should have been disqualifying. But they get to do it over and over again. | | |
| ▲ | manquer 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | That is why even Flameville 3 was cheaper than Hinkley point C, not that it was cheap. Flameville 3 is the first reactor for France in 21st century and suffers the frequency problem I am arguing. It was a path finder therefore only one was ever ordered. EPR2 is 6 under construction and France does have a track record of doing it consistently at scale for cheap(by nuclear standards). The Asian giants all do it for cheaper because they build regularly, Japan (post Fukushima policy direction notwithstanding) and South Korea achieve overnight numbers of $5-6M/MW or less, so does China. Regular construction is key, to the industry having a chance, without SMR that is never realistic anymore. | |
| ▲ | teamonkey 17 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | The most annoying thing about Hinkley Point C is that after all the delays and investments, the electricity it generates won’t even be cheap. £133/MWh! Right now we have politicians arguing that a £90/MWh strike price for offshore wind - where the construction of the wind dawn is entirely encapsulated by the strike price - is expensive. |
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| ▲ | ViewTrick1002 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Look at the proposed EPR2 subsidies. It is interest free loans and €100 per MWh on top of that, while assuming large learning effects. They are admitting Flamanville 3 like costs before they have even started building. | | |
| ▲ | manquer 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Overnight costs do not get impacted by guaranteed purchase price or subsidy for it neither does it include interest rates. It is a specific aspect of the TCO. Nobody is saying nuclear is cheap it is not - we will be building a plant once in while for pure strategic reason no matter the cost anyway. The point is construction cost comes down per MW with higher frequency of plant building, and this is the case SMRs, we can get cheaper construction both Per MW and overall TCO in absolute dollar terms relative to large plants with SMRs. |
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| ▲ | jacquesm 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| There is no economic case for SMR that you couldn't make for a larger one with a massive benefit of economies of scale. SMRs are - in my opinion - a dead end, larger reactors could work well but will be delivered later and likely will still not be profitable on a KWh basis when compared to an equivalent installed base of solar and wind and will most likely be deliver much, much later. |
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| ▲ | dalyons 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| A theory with a lot of leaps that is in no way guaranteed. But it’s a nice idea |
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| ▲ | oofbey 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| Wright’s law is the only way to reduce costs. It’s a generalization of Moore’s law. The more of anything you build the cheaper it gets. Most products get 10% - 20% cheaper every time total production volume doubles. The most obvious example right now is rockets - launch costs are going down exponentially because we (SpaceX mostly) are doing so much of it we are finally getting economies of scale. SMRs will too, but only if they become popular. It’s a little bit of chicken and egg, but the economics are clear. If lots of people start using SMRs they WILL get cheap. And it’s a form factor where it’s plausible lots of people will. |
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| ▲ | Zigurd 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | That's another interesting theory, but Wright's law doesn't mitigate many other disadvantages of SMRs: the need for multi site security; the need for on-site technicians at more sites; the need to build grid hook up to more locations, etc. There's a reason reactors grew to a certain size, no smaller and no bigger. Ignoring that lesson has a high price. |
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