| ▲ | rahidz 19 hours ago |
| Man I remember back when a psychic conned me by solving the Navier-Stokes problem. Also
>July 4th, 2023 |
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| ▲ | trescenzi 18 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| LLMs can be supremely useful but also not intelligent. It might seem like a pointless distinction but the way we talk about these models matters because it impacts how we interact with and understand their outputs. For example if there’s a strongly held belief that models are independent intelligent entities we’re more likely to lay blame upon them instead of their user. It’s important for the safety discussion too. If they are a new class of life then safety is going to focus on making sure they don’t do bad things. If we instead see them as statistical models we will instead try to make sure people don’t misuse them. This distinction is even more important today when some of the most powerful people are looking to absolve their crimes by passing them off on their LLMs. |
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| ▲ | mindcrime 15 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | For example if there’s a strongly held belief that models are independent intelligent entities we’re more likely to lay blame upon them instead of their user. This sentence, to me, illustrates a great example of why it's so hard to talk about this stuff. That is, this seems to strongly link notions of "intelligent" and "independent" (or maybe the word "autonomous" could also be used there). And a lot of people do seem to make an implicit assumption about the link between those two attributes. OTOH, I take it almost for granted that "intelligence" and "independence" (or "autonomy") are things that are "related but orthogonal". That is, I don't see that "intelligence implies independence". And I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one who sees things that way. So we have to fairly different fundamental worldviews expressed here. And that's just one example of how these discussions go wonky. :-) | |
| ▲ | layer8 17 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I don’t think that “independent intelligent entities” or “life” are the relevant categories here. We also want to prevent people from misusing dangerous animals (“life”), and we would still treat “intelligent entities” as things (like machines and computers) if we aren’t convinced they also have sentience and free agency (which are orthogonal to intelligence). | |
| ▲ | pixl97 17 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | See you've setup a particular set of biases on what intelligence is and put them into nice little binary boxes that don't exist. Please show me any scientific consensus that shows an AI cannot be an independent intelligent agent? You will find this is impossible to do. Current LLMs are really more like kids. They don't have startup independence, but they do have more than enough agency to fund themselves in neat, exciting, and dangerous situations. And mark my words, someone will make an LLM that runs an agent when you execute the model. With enough capabilities it will become sovereign AI, no longer under human control and spreading itself around under its own 'will'. |
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| ▲ | krupan 18 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| The LLM did not solve it. It's not intelligent. Humans did, using a statistics-based computational tool (the LLM). We don't even know all the details of how the tool was used, we haven't been allowed to use the exact tool they used ourselves, we don't know much it really cost in dollars, energy, or time, etc. etc. |
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| ▲ | daishi55 17 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > The LLM did not solve it. It's not intelligent. Humans did, The humans who are using LLMs to make these groundbreaking advances pretty much unanimously disagree that they lack any intelligence. | | |
| ▲ | krupan 16 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | You mean the OpenAI employees? Yeah, I don't see any conflicts of interest there | | |
| ▲ | daishi55 16 hours ago | parent [-] | | I’m sorry but you either haven’t been following recent developments or you are pretending not to know the opinions of the top mathematicians on this topic: > These models are now operating[2] at the level of the top human mathematicians in many parts of the subject and we must assume there is a significant chance of them developing superhuman abilities within a similarly short timeframe. https://docs.google.com/document/u/0/d/1-xOkPeHmDEdRigT2YcP2... Instead of desperately clinging to excuses and rationalizations, why don’t you just get used to the fact that these tools are insanely useful for demanding intellectual work, and that is an opinion held by many of the smartest people alive? | | |
| ▲ | krupan 14 hours ago | parent [-] | | I won't because it's all so opaque and proprietary and driven by an insane need for OpenAI and Anthropic to provide a return on MASSIVE investment. There is absolutely some smoke and mirrors involved. How much? We don't know. But it sure is exciting to imagine their product is now smarter than humans and they are totally benevolent corporations. I want that to be true as much as anyone, but I have lived too long on this earth to believe it wholeheartedly |
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| ▲ | jdiff 17 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I haven't seen any statements from them on that topic. Have they actually made some? | | |
| ▲ | daishi55 17 hours ago | parent [-] | | From the open letter signed by Terry Tao and other top mathematicians: > These models are now operating at the level of the top human mathematicians in many parts of the subject and we must assume there is a significant chance of them developing superhuman abilities within a similarly short timeframe. https://docs.google.com/document/u/0/d/1N6ThWhupvmH0ofSnaxqn... | | |
| ▲ | jdiff 15 hours ago | parent [-] | | Superhuman abilities are not "intelligence." 8bit microprocessors exhibit superhuman abilities in different, smaller ways. |
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| ▲ | claytongulick 18 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | And it may have trained on a NYU professor's work. | | |
| ▲ | gf000 17 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Who was looking at a subset of the problem, far from what got published by OpenAI in the end. | |
| ▲ | tripledry 17 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Why is this downvoted? Genuine question, I haven't followed up on the drama. | | |
| ▲ | pixl97 17 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Because it's mostly not true. It is likely that it used the professors work, but the professor did not have a solution. It came up with new insights that solved the problem. Even the humans from the professors side said so. | | |
| ▲ | claytongulick 17 hours ago | parent [-] | | > Because it's mostly not true. It is likely that it used the professors work These two statements appear contradictory. I simply said that it may have trained on a NYU professor's work. Work that the professor did not believe he was releasing for model training purposes. That feels worthy of mention. |
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| ▲ | kingstnap 17 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | According to OpenAI the cut off date for user data was too early for that (one sided evidence, so I'll give this partial consideration). The NYU professor was solving a different problem (no viscosity, aka the Euler equations). This is a big difference. The NYU professors' blowup construction was fundamentally not the same, it was a donut with a cascade of smaller and smaller vortexes driven by each other. OpenAI has that picture they made but its inwards spiraling and speeding up vortex. My overall opinion is that calling the work plagiarized is really underselling what the AI accomplished. It's like full on cope. In particular, Buckmaster's main claim to plagiarism is this: > “Almost nobody was seriously developing this particular constructive program for realizing C/D, and then OpenAI appeared in essentially the same general part of the landscape immediately after hearing about our progress.” What this fails to realize, is that this only points to plagiarism if the counterparty isn't AI. They had actually launched teams on all cases in parallel. |
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| ▲ | simianwords 17 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Sometimes I think this amount of skepticism is not necessary. Leaving the pedantic (its not AI its humans who solved) arguments, its pretty clear that LLMs are able to help solve things. A lot of erdos problems were solved. Millenium problems as well. Cyphers broken. Skepticism is fine but there's a point at which it just looks like cope. Edit: > self solving AGI that will replace us all Which lab says that it will replace us all? All labs have said that some jobs will go away and new jobs will be needed to replace them. I'll change my mind if the labs (or employees on record) have claimed that self evolving AI will replace us all completely. | | |
| ▲ | Tanjreeve 16 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | If that's how it was being sold then it wouldn't be as controversial. But it's being sold both as "self solving AGI that will replace us all" and "useful tool for enhancing existing skill" when there's a lot of real evidence for the latter. But the former it's always second hand claims that don't survive contact with the real world. It's obvious why that's the case but it's not incumbent on everyone else pump the hype if they don't see it. | |
| ▲ | krupan 14 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | How have you missed the many times that Sam Altman and Dario Amodei have said exactly that?? | | |
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| ▲ | Angostura 19 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| But were you successfully conned into believing an AI had solved the Navier-Stokes problem? |
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| ▲ | tescreal 19 hours ago | parent [-] | | What is the consensus among experts? | | |
| ▲ | grey-area 18 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | That OpenAI stole the discovery from them. | | |
| ▲ | daishi55 18 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | That is very much not the consensus of experts. | | |
| ▲ | pixl97 17 hours ago | parent [-] | | It's kinda funny how hard the anti-ai people bias themselves and in the same sentence will say the AI people are irrational. | | |
| ▲ | krupan 16 hours ago | parent [-] | | The point of this article we are all commenting on is that we are all irrational and we all would do well to keep that in mind and be more skeptical | | |
| ▲ | daishi55 16 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | The point for me is that all these people who were smirking at those of us who thought in 2023 that LLMs had the potential to do real intellectual work turned out to be completely wrong. I’m a super skeptical guy. I was late to the ChatGPT party because it sounded silly. I didn’t even try it for a long time. As soon as I started giving it a chance, my attitudes started changing very quickly. That’s why it’s so hard for me to understand people like the author or give them the benefit of the doubt. If I could see it as just some guy, why couldn’t they? | | |
| ▲ | krupan 15 hours ago | parent [-] | | I agree that "don't use it for anything" might be too extreme a position to take, but I worry greatly that these proprietary opaque tools that are being provided by at best people with extreme conflicts of interest and at worst sociopaths need to be adopted with extreme care |
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| ▲ | pixl97 16 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Skepticism is a fine balance. If you're not skeptical you invite idiocy to your bed to sleep with you. If you're too skeptical you put yourself in a box of ignorance that puts you at a disadvantage. Skepticism doesn't really work well without the dialectic. For dialectics to work well you need knowledge of your arguments and counter arguments. The problem with most articles and online posts is we get "no no no" and "yes yes yes" and very few "well, maybe". | | |
| ▲ | krupan 15 hours ago | parent [-] | | Absolutely true and the comments here are mostly in one of those two categories, sadly |
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| ▲ | 18 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | [deleted] |
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| ▲ | 27388383 18 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | [flagged] |
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| ▲ | inopinatus 18 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| The more compelling inversion is whether the likes of John Nash, Richard Feynman, John Conway etc could’ve had a lucrative second career as conmen. |
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| ▲ | krupan 16 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | This is the real issue here. Those guys probably didn't become con men because they are humans with cares and concerns for their fellow humans. LLMs probably don't have those concerns. It is likely that some of the people in charge of or funding LLM development also do not have those concerns | |
| ▲ | mistercow 18 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Feynman for sure could have. In fact, I think he sort of did, although I'm not sure he meant to. Multiple generations of nerds now have taken books of his anecdotes varying in plausibility and obvious exaggeration as some sort of weird physics cult of personality gospel. But I don't think he was really setting out to curate his legacy so much as he was a good storyteller and he liked to entertain. But could he have conned people on purpose? Absolutely. | | |
| ▲ | krupan 16 hours ago | parent [-] | | Right. And what this article is pointing out is, we probably have created an automated Richard Feynman. But maybe worse because LLMs (and their creators?) don't care if they are conning people or creating faithful followers. In fact the humans behind OpenAI and Anthropic seem to have that as their goal! |
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| ▲ | atemerev 18 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | von Neumann could. The others, I doubt it. |
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| ▲ | lukewarm707 17 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| this seems like non-sequitur if you mean that solving NS is 'intelligence'. ai is not conscious. you can solve NS without thinking. the psychic con aspect is anthropomorphising the model. the same phenomenon is present in ELIZA, clever hans, the chinese room. it's a significant problem. a non-zero number of researchers at anthropic are in some form of ai psychosis. an example of that is ethics employees asking claude about its feelings and ethical concerns in order to make the claude constitution more amenable to the "welfare" of claude. they are asking claude how claude feels and then modifying claude according to how claude feels. constitution1-claude is trained on constitution1.
constitution1-claude edits constitution1.
constitution2-claude is trained on constitution2.
constitution2-claude edits constitution2. claude's emotions are a closed system. there is no external truth to improve against, no metric to verify about claude's emotions. there can be no novelty or reduction in entropy from signal processing in a closed system. no truth can arise. this is model collapse. it is like photocopying the same thing over and over. from the cognitive error of anthropomorphism anthropic is causing ethical collapse. |
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| ▲ | pixl97 17 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | >ai is not conscious FFS. Intelligence has nearly nothing to do with consciousness. You have the causation backwards. Consciousness arises because of intelligence in many subsystems below it. A single running LLM is like one part of these subsystems. What solved this problem was an orchestrator that can take in new external information and rationalize, process, and distill it into new solutions. | | |
| ▲ | lukewarm707 17 hours ago | parent [-] | | i mean intelligence and consciousness as the same thing. just as a casual reference to what people perceive in llms as being 'a clever thinking thing, maybe with emotions'. claude reasoning about its emotions doesn't involve external information, there is no information about claude's emotions other than in claude. | | |
| ▲ | pixl97 16 hours ago | parent [-] | | If you have emotions in a dream, what external thing are you referencing? | | |
| ▲ | lukewarm707 14 hours ago | parent [-] | | other people. | | |
| ▲ | pixl97 14 hours ago | parent [-] | | Citation needed. | | |
| ▲ | lukewarm707 12 hours ago | parent [-] | | i do not need any citation, the claim is self-evident. the hard problem is for the academics. i can approximate what other people are feeling. they are external to me. nobody knows what claude is feeling. there is genuinely no way to know. | | |
| ▲ | pixl97 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | >the claim is self-evident It seems like every day religious people claim their god is self evident too. Self evident claims are worth the proof they are written in. | | |
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| ▲ | willmarch 15 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | "you can solve NS without thinking." What?! The constant goalpost moving and redefining of "thinking" and "intelligence" is simply unbelievable at this point | | |
| ▲ | lukewarm707 12 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | i have long held that llms are not intelligent and do not think. intelligence and thinking are efforts to describe consciousness. perhaps intelligence became a term used to describe something 'capable'. people market 'intelligent thermostats'. llms are not conscious. | |
| ▲ | emp17344 15 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Or you could just accept that other people disagree with you. It’s perfectly valid to have the opinion that AI models are not “thinking”. Instead, many AI enthusiasts seem interested in browbeating others and policing discussion. | | |
| ▲ | willmarch 15 hours ago | parent [-] | | Can you explain to me how a Millennium Problem gets solved without any thinking or intelligence? If someone's opinion is illogical and clearly incorrect (not based in facts or in reality) it is not valid and doesn't not have to be given any serious consideration in a disagreement. Personal opinions are subordinate to facts and reality. | | |
| ▲ | lukewarm707 12 hours ago | parent [-] | | there is no proof that symbolic manipulation leads to an internal phenomenology. in english: doing advanced mathmatics does not create thoughts or feelings. or awareness of one's own existence. it does not create a 'self' able to deduce a priori the existence of oneself or the external world. or qualia. again in english: there is nothing it is like to be an llm. someone who thinks llms are conscious is probably a panpsychist. i don't think they have the features of consciousness defined even by functionalism. here is one fairly famous thought experiment. mary lives in a black and white room. but she knows everything about color. in fact she predicts it so accurately nobody can tell the difference. she steps outside into the world of color. in the world where llms are conscious, she already knew color, so she experienced color, so there is nothing new it is like to see it. | | |
| ▲ | willmarch 9 hours ago | parent [-] | | You just completely ignored the two words being discussed: "thinking" and "intelligence" | | |
| ▲ | lukewarm707 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | if something is not conscious, a) it does not think b) it is not intelligent. an llm is not conscious. | | |
| ▲ | willmarch 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | First off, there is no accepted definition or test for consciousness. The concept is something we cannot prove even exists (outside of magical or imprecise, human-centric definitions). Second, there is no common definition of thinking that requires consciousness as a prerequisite (that seems to be a false/invalid statement you're making to try to gloss over accepted definitions for thinking/intelligence that describe/fit AI agents well). And third, if we can't prove consciousness even in animal species close to humans (or even other humans) in cognitive abilities, then you cannot in good faith (being honest about what we know or don't know empirically) say that an LLM Is not conscious (and the same goes for an LLM thinking or having intelligence). It is more likely that humans made up a term (consciousness) to try to separate human intellect from that of other animals (for veiled religious and mystical reasons, along with concepts like "the soul") and now people are falling back into that flawed definition in new quasi-religious debates around AI (like the debate around evolution previously) that challenge our deeply held (but flawed) beliefs/opinions around our understanding of our own abilities and our incessant need to feel special/supreme in the universe so we don't have to come to terms with hard realities and nuanced understandings about the reality in which we live. |
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| ▲ | rusk 19 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Did an AI do that on its own though? I heard it was human mathematicians using a sophisticated machine as a tool. |
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| ▲ | meowface 19 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | All of the latest big proofs were driven by professional human mathematicians steering and priming the models, yes. All of the best AI-made software projects are also driven by experienced human software developers steering and priming the models. Does that mean the projects "aren't made by AI"? No, it just means AI is not quite good enough yet to fully replace humans, and, so, unsurprisingly, the best results will be obtained from people who are already great at a field and who take the time to squeeze as much force multiplication out of LLMs as possible. The AI is still doing well over 95% of the significant work. | | |
| ▲ | TomGarden 18 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | While I agree with you, I think we also have to concede that this is not how these accomplishments have been presented. I'd argue most people I've seen talk about this online are unaware of the mathematicians steering the models. | |
| ▲ | basch 18 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | “Good enough to replace humans” isn’t necessarily the benchmark. The question is is a computer with a human stronger than a computer without a human. At what point does the hybrid go from being stronger, to the human getting in the way, or steering the computer in more wrong directions that right ones, or the human not being able to keep up. Does the human add enough extra randomness to be of value for a while, even as a minor co-processor. | | |
| ▲ | meowface 25 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | I have little doubt that for many years, AI + human will be better, and then eventually AI will be so good that humans mostly won't offer anything. That latter state will probably take at least 10 more years, but will likely happen within our lifetime. | |
| ▲ | TheOtherHobbes 17 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Underappreciated point. The point of inflection is where humans switch from being a driver to a liability. But I don't think it's randomness, because that would be easy to add. It's more like a different perspective on the training data, a different set of perception categories, and a different set of skills used to work with all of the above. Those skills aren't very efficient, but they're the best we can do. We're used to their strengths but we don't like to think about their limitations. It's completely plausible that AI will replace some of them, and not implausible it could replace and improve on all of them. | | |
| ▲ | basch 17 hours ago | parent [-] | | It's also not necessarily implausible that AI/we decide that performance is better with humans in the loop somewhere, even if its reduced to something like mechanical turk. |
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| ▲ | agileAlligator 18 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | https://chatgpt.com/share/6a5fdc7a-d6f8-83e8-bbea-8deb42cfed... Terrence Tao's conversation with ChatGPT is very illuminating. HN Discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49010345 | |
| ▲ | chrisjj 11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > All of the best AI-made software projects are also driven by experienced human software developers steering and priming the models. Does that mean the projects "aren't made by AI"? No Software devs steer and prime compilers too. Those tools don't "make the project" and nor does your so-called AI. | |
| ▲ | simianwords 17 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > All of the latest big proofs were driven by professional human mathematicians steering and priming the models, yes. False, navier stokes was solved in one shot without steering | | |
| ▲ | rsfern 16 hours ago | parent [-] | | According to OpenAI, but they haven’t exactly been transparent about what information the prompt entailed. The bigger question is to what extent did expert mathematicians metaprompt the model with fruitful solution strategies through their sessions finding their way into training data. Answering that question definitively is kind of important for understanding the models contribution/capability. But I feel like people want to turn this into a debate about priority and credit which is sort of secondary |
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| ▲ | mstank 19 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | It sounds like LLMs were pretty useful to them… | | |
| ▲ | ModernMech 18 hours ago | parent [-] | | So was Lean. Did Lean solve it? | | |
| ▲ | zamadatix 18 hours ago | parent [-] | | Nothing is solved in isolation but credit usually goes to wherever the new work in the paper comes from instead of the whole mountain of previous mathematics or existing tools used. The most relevant of those get referenced and then this reference tree builds a tree of collective base work needed across history. | | |
| ▲ | ModernMech 17 hours ago | parent [-] | | Usually credit goes to the people wielding the tools, not the tools themselves. | | |
| ▲ | zamadatix 17 hours ago | parent [-] | | Usually there has never been a tool which performed the part relevant to getting any credit. E.g. in the first famous computer assisted proof (of the four color theorem) the computer only executed the resulting calculations defined from the new logic, it did not have part in the work needed to show those calculations could answer the problem nor did it come up with the actual calculations to do. |
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| ▲ | broast 18 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The way frontier models work, that loop will get compressed to a one-shot within a version or two | |
| ▲ | simianwords 17 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > I heard it was human mathematicians using a sophisticated machine as a tool. where did you "hear" this? OpenAI said they only prompted it and it solved the problem in one shot without any help |
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