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More than 100k people in Japan are now aged 100 or older(bbc.com)
78 points by karakoram 4 hours ago | 55 comments
shoobiedoo an hour ago | parent | next [-]

This article calls it a "quiet emergency" but even as a foreigner living in Japan there are alarm bells everywhere. And the government buying 150 F35's is just a slap in the face when there's a massive chunk of the population that is, very quickly, going to need extra care.

I looked into becoming a care aid myself as I'm tired of office culture in Japan and have some experience in that field. I was shocked to see that they start at less than 10USD, and working your way up takes years, decades even.

Continuing to kick this can down the road is going to be an absolute disaster.

stickfigure 24 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

> buying 150 F35's

Your immediate neighbor is going on an imperialist streak right now, and Xi says he wants the fireworks to start in his lifetime. I don't know if F35s are the right answer for Japan, but Xi isn't that young. Get ready however you can.

rightnutwingjob an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

What does buying one hundred and fifty F35 aircraft have to do with not being able care for your parents / grandparents?

Why do people think The Government™ is able to, should, or can, solve everyone’s problems?

The Government™ probably can solve defence.

It probably can’t solve your lack of desire to do the right thing and look after your aging parents.

PorciiVorbesc 28 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

>Why do people think The Government™ is able to, should, or can, solve everyone’s problems?

Where do you see them demanding the government solve $ALL their problems?

>The Government™ probably can solve defence.

Agree.

>It probably can’t solve your lack of desire to do the right thing and look after your aging parents.

Is there a lack of desire? Or a lack of resources resulting as a consequence of how the modern developed economy works, where youth need to move away from the family to get a college education and skilled jobs, and in return the government taxes you to take care of your parents and your kids so that you can focus on maximizing your skilled productivity at work? Isn't this the modern (faulty) social contract?

Sure, I can move back with my parents to take care of them, but then I won't have a job to earn money because all the industry in that town was hollowed out and moved abroad (also thanks to government actions of maximizing shareholder value).

Now , if the government admits it can't solve elderly care and wants us to take care of our parents on our own dime, the it should also stop taxing us for a welfare state it can't provide and just focus on what it can, like defense. IIRC Switzerland works like that.

Unfortunately, in our modern post-industrial economy we can't all go back to tribal/village lifestyles of our ancestors where we all lived on farms in multi generational households and we all took care of each other and lived only off the land. That would sound nice in theory, but it's not feasible anymore the way nations and economies are set up to work and compete against each other, unless we can somehow agree to fight wars from now on only with bows and arrows like our ancestors, instead of AI drones and cruise missiles needing cutting edge chips and SW made by singles with phds and no kids. We built this faulty societal system and now we're forced to live by it whether we want to or not.

saulpw 8 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

A 100-year-old's children are 70-80 years old themselves, if they are still alive. They very well might be not be capable of taking care of a 100-year-old person. And not everyone has children. Rather than throw up our hands and say "too bad", perhaps we collectively have some responsibility to take care of those who aren't able to take care of themselves?

justsomehnguy 14 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It's quite amusing how The Government™ is able to use the tax money to buy an overpriced useless military toys which solve nothing and cost trillions, but at the same time The Government™ can't spend that tax money on the care of their citizens.

thinkingtoilet 30 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

We're not making these problems up. Reality exists. These problems exist. The government is doing it because the population is failing to do it on their own. It's very obvious and not up for debate. If it wasn't a problem, the government wouldn't have to do it.

andy99 27 minutes ago | parent [-]

> If it wasn't a problem, the government wouldn't have to do it.

This is certainly very different from my experience with what governments think they have to do.

Waterluvian 14 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The socialized cost of protecting your castle is massive. It makes for a very popular and very lazy target for this kind of “think of the children” (or centenarians) style rhetoric.

Something I keep in mind when reading these kinds of opinions is that when war breaks out and moves through a region (think Ukraine), the elderly are common among those who cannot flee.

PorciiVorbesc an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

>And the government buying 150 F35's is just a slap in the face when there's a massive chunk of the population that is, very quickly, going to need extra care.

I'm torn on this issue. I think the elderly and people in general should get a decent life, but on the opposite side we have Europe that's investing massively more in making its boomers richer and more comfortable than anyone in human history has ever been(average pension in France is now higher than the average salary), rather than investing that money in ensuring opportunities and prosperity of future generations, who are facing economic stagnation/degrowth and are forced to foot the bill for this elderly spending, with the guarantee the pyramid scheme they're funding will fail them when their turn comes to benefit from it.

So perhaps Japan sees the defense capability those 150 F-35's bring to its future national security more valuable than keeping the elderly alive for a few more years.

Yeah, it sounds harsh when you look at people like that, but taking care of people takes resources(money), and money is finite, so all these decisions are a game theory trolley problem, where you have to choose whose lives a country should prioritize the most: the past generations, or the future generations.

Historically in the history of nations would be willing to sacrifice the elderly to prioritize the survival and growth of its future generations, that was the social contract of the tribe, that is until the western boomers came and decided they deserve to fuck the future of their nation if they can get wealthier and feel good till the end.

I'm not saying there's one correct solution here, because I don't have it. I'm saying tough decisions have to be made from which there will be winners and losers, so a nation should choose the winners carefully, if it wishes to have a future.

shoobiedoo an hour ago | parent | next [-]

I agree to some degree. There is also the case to be made that whereas in the past, young people would stay at home until they were married, and therefore assist their parents/grandparents, the rapid westernization (or "de-Japanization"?) of Japanese youth has them moving out asap into larger cities to be "free individuals" and those downstream effects on the elderly aren't anyone's fault, I guess.

paulryanrogers 15 minutes ago | parent [-]

Can you blame kids (especially those without siblings) wanting to strike out for a life and family of their own?

They don't choose to be born. Have few/no rights to change how they're raised or their parents spend the family funds while they are minors. Often they have no choice over large portions of their education. To say they owe their parents decades of unpaid caregiving is absurd.

dfxm12 9 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

From experience, elder care is more of a drain on the younger family members than the elder. It's not just financial either. Needing to take off from work to take the elderly somewhere, making sure they understand the medical situation, etc. Every country/situation is different though. Maybe pensioners in France can afford their own care, but I'm assuming they can't drive themselves to the doctor.

threethirtytwo an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

When those boomers die where does the money go?

RobRivera an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Tax man, funeral industry, late life casino runs, o o o o o o an investment in GVC gold

phs318u an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The single biggest generational transfer of wealth in human history.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Wealth_Transfer

NuclearPM an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Musk, Ellison, Zuckerberg, Gates, Bezos.

shimman 40 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

This is doing a lot of cover for an airplane that has massive supply issues and mostly seems to have been invented to extract more money out of allies to serve the US military industrial complex.

An island nation under the protectorate of the US TOTALLY needs to spend over $300 billion over the needs of their people, okay sure. Makes sense I guess.

Historically those that were greedy were banished from society so the community can continue thrive. How greedy are you willing to be since you're okay with sacrificing other humans for political ploys?

PorciiVorbesc 33 minutes ago | parent [-]

>This is doing a lot of cover for an airplane that has massive supply issues

I'm not covering the damn plane in my comment. I was covering the nation's need for self defense which is gonna cost crazy money any way you slice it if your military wants to have latest gen "sci-fi" jets capable of beating Chinese ones.

>An island nation under the protectorate of the US TOTALLY needs to spend over $300 billion over the needs of their people, okay sure. Makes sense I guess.

The security guarantee that nations, like Japan in this case, receive from the US is not free of charge, it never was. It's paid in barter via purchasing US military gear like F-35s that supports the US economy and defense industry jobs. It's the same deal with the gulf states. Saudi Arabia and the others, accepted to trade their oil only in USD, making the USD the world reserve currency and the US the richest country in the world, and in exchange it received defense assurances form the US. That's always been the deal. Are there still people oblivious to this fact?

shimman 23 minutes ago | parent [-]

Yeah I don't think it was a good look for a supposed democratic nation to sell weaponry to nations that rely on slave labor either, but there never was a good look for American imperialism. Still shocked to see people champion it still.

PorciiVorbesc 17 minutes ago | parent [-]

> Still shocked to see people champion it still.

Can you share who here is championing it?

Also, you often don't have a choice, as imperialism is a constant throughout human history. If it's not the US it's gonna be someone else, maybe even worse. Now I'm not American, but if I were, and I'd need to make a choice between my nation being THE imperial power or someone else with different values than mine resulting me being at their mercy, then I'd rather me than them.

But this isn't "championing it", this is choosing the pragmatic least-worst option.

calvinmorrison 16 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

> very quickly, going to need extra care.

they don't "need" extra care, and at 100 years old, should be pretty content with concepts of dying without intervention.

What is with the obsession in the world today about those on deaths door taking precedent over those who live today?

NonHyloMorph 11 minutes ago | parent [-]

Wtf is going on with the discourse here lately? Are you advocating for effective "euthanasia" by neglect?

dzink an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

“A government audit of family registries in Japan in 2010 uncovered more than 230,000 people listed as being aged 100 or older who were unaccounted for, some having died decades previously. The miscounting was attributed to patchy record-keeping and suspicions that some families may have tried to hide the deaths of elderly relatives in order to claim their pensions“ Thus they need to redo the audit in 2026.

seb1204 an hour ago | parent | next [-]

I head similar stories. Also from Italy. Another aspect is that many 100+ year old have questionable birth certificates, as in the record of the birthday might be guessed. Different times back then.

tokioyoyo 27 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

That’s all true, but if you walk around “old people neighbourhoods” even within Tokyo, you’ll realize there are A LOT OF old people. Maybe it’s much more urbanized, and older people are more likely to still go out for groceries and stuff here. But even on the ground it feels like “yeah story tracks”.

anyfoo an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

I was also thinking about that, but that miscounting story is so old, notable, and well-known by now, that it's basically popular knowledge around the world. So I hope that the BBC, but especially also the Japanese government that the BBC was reporting on, are aware of that issue and have, by now, accounted for it.

groundzeros2015 an hour ago | parent [-]

I would guess the BBC reporter is completely unaware as is the tradition for journalism.

anyfoo 42 minutes ago | parent [-]

Unlikely, as the quote about >230k misattributed people comes from the article itself. So even without taking into account that I generally expect more from the BBC, the author of this article seems to be at least aware of the fact.

Be it as it may, and even if that's an AI-generated article (which I don't think so), the point is that the article is reporting on the Japanese government:

    Japanese authorities have called the trend an "existential crisis" with Prime Minister Sanae Takichi describing the decline as a "quiet emergency".
And my hope that they have taken that past mistake into account seems to have some ground, given that the 100k total number that the current figures cite is by itself well below the then-figure of 230k misattributions.
phyzome 16 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Wild that the article goes on about the percentage of centenarians, then just has this brief note about how the data are completely unreliable, and never squares the two sets of statements.

briandw an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The secret to extreme long life is bad record keeping.

hn_throwaway_99 an hour ago | parent [-]

Yeah, I agree that the "Blue Zone" theory is mostly explained by bad record keeping. Okinawa is one of the poorest areas of Japan, but was deemed a Blue Zone, despite that wealth is nearly always positively correlated with longevity within similar cultures. Low and behold Okinawa had shitty record keeping and tons of incentives for relatives to commit pension fraud.

dnautics 30 minutes ago | parent [-]

This is dumb. If you go to any Japanese graveyard in Hawaii (where family graves have prefecture of origin) you will find the preponderance of centenarians are from okinawan families. There is no incentive for pension fraud for someone born in the us (or emigrated to the us in their younger years) and died in the us in the 1980s-> early 20XXs

crooked-v 18 minutes ago | parent [-]

Sure, but there would have still been the same poor record keeping around birth dates and the same incentives for people in a poor area 60 years ago to enter the workforce early.

sottol 43 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Semi-related, but I did recently wonder if China's real-estate bust might serve as a strong fertility support measure / incidental pronatalist policy.

Tier-3 and tier-4 cities supposedly saw 30-50% property value declines, setting them back more than two decades. If real estate was really holding back families, as is often stipulated, this might reverse that.

Otoh, rural Japan has lots of cheap or even free real estate but it doesn't seem to support fertility rates at all.

autoexec 36 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

I think high housing prices can impact people's decision about when/if they start a family, but other factors do as well. Rural Japan might be inexpensive, but raising a family there can be less attractive for a lot of other reasons.

thatfrenchguy 19 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Real estate is not the only reason why folks have less children, especially in cultures where people don’t mind having less space. Kids are expensive for other reasons in china

Waterluvian 9 minutes ago | parent [-]

The other reason is car seats. I can’t fit more than two and I’ll be damned if I trade in for a minivan!

justsomehnguy 9 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

> If real estate was really holding back families, as is often stipulated, this might reverse that.

It doesn't matter how much the property is valued if your work is somewhere else.

ashleyn an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

How common is pension fraud in Japan?

kevin_thibedeau an hour ago | parent [-]

It's common enough that the Japanese government has been tracking down long dead "centenarians" to root it out. Also, according to Saul Newman [1], many of the centenarians claimed for Japan actually died 80+ years ago in the war and were never recorded as dead when everyone else in their family died.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ZE5ml7a6rE

jan_m_savage 33 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The more salient point is why is this happening.

That is to say, it also mean less and less younger people, as 'modernity' induces fewer marriages and fewer children.

EagleEdge an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

We have travelled for about a month in Japan last year. They work under constant stress, lots of commute on public transit. I also did not feel their food was that healthy, lots of fried food and sweets. But the portion is small compared to what we would normally eat in a meal.

anyfoo an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Did you actually visit Japanese families, or is that assessment based on what you saw in convenience stores and similar? "Convenience" food and western style food has somewhat increased, but on average Japanese cuisine is very healthy.

I also agree on the stressful work part, but don't quite understand what you mean with "lots of commute on public transit". If you mean the Tokyo-style rush hour traffic where people are literally shoved into the train car, of course that's stressful. But at any other time apart from that, Japan's public transit is enormously soothing and stress-free, both because of culture and transit technology.

autoexec 31 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Yeah, I'd agree. I think that the Japan's public transportation, even in Tokyo, wasn't at all stressful. Maybe I'd feel differently if I had to be shoved in, but that was easy enough to avoid and even at the times when it was a little crowded for my tastes, it was still a great experience.

EagleEdge an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Day in day out, everyday in public transit, just sheer noise would not add any lifetime. We stayed at our Japanese friend’s house so we did have exposure to their everyday life. The point I want to make is that many things contribute to a long life, and of course Japanese people are doing most of those things right, regardless of what that might be. I remember watching a documentary about Okinawa people. One thing they mentioned was laughter.

anyfoo an hour ago | parent | next [-]

I grew up in Germany. For the past 13 years, I've lived in the US. Oh, how I wish I could go back to the "day in day out, everyday in public transit" instead of this car hell. In Germany, just like in Japan, I didn't feel that it was noisy at all. It was clean and quiet and soothing, I could just sit there and relax. Everyone takes public transport, across all income ranges.

As a result, public life itself is more quiet and soothing, because you are not constantly surrounded by cars, even if just sitting outside a café.

As for the family you stayed at, they must eat differently from the Japanese families I know personally. Studies agree: https://www.livescience.com/54133-japanese-diet-longer-life.... https://chns.cpc.unc.edu/resources/publications/bib/2884/

tikotus 31 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

Japanese public transport is insanely quiet! No talking, no phones ringing... It's my happy place.

spike021 15 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

What exactly did you eat the entire time? tonkatsu and karaage?

there's plenty of great home style food that isn't fried.. nikujaga, gyusuji, nikudofu, etc.

Public transit there is pretty great. If anything the lack of escalators for some stations can be unmotivating to some people but on the other hand walking a lot of flights of stairs is healthy.

geraneum an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

I don’t get the bit about public transport. Do you mean it’s unhealthy because public transport is stressful?

circularfoyers an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Surely the exercise that comes with using public transport outweighs that. I feel like being able to zone out and not having to focus on driving, is more relaxing to me.

SketchySeaBeast an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

If we're talking about the extremely elderly, it seems better for them to be taking public transport than driving.

xnx an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Obligatory note about most centenarians not having verifiable birth records.

bhhaskin an hour ago | parent [-]

Japan is quite a bit different in that regard since they have family registries. Their issue tends to be death records.

SMAAART an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

The blue zone.