| ▲ | echelon 8 hours ago |
| This is going to be dramatic in so many different ways. - First off, to reiterate, WOW. - Second of all, when does this end? Are we at the dawn of the singularity now? - People are saying OpenAI "stole" this from the work of an OpenAI user. If so, that's pretty fucked - how can we trust them? - Time to think about retiring from any knowledge work or business? This could be winner-take-all where a leading lab can button press any economic function, business process, or scientific discovery. 24 months of lead on Open Source might turn into virtual centuries of lead. - Do "normies" even know what's happening? Anybody who thinks the improvements stop here isn't paying attention. It hasn't been showing any signs of slowing down since 2018. And the curve isn't even linear! My god, next year is going to be insane. |
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| ▲ | tiborsaas 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| 2) We are witnessing the intelligence explosion from the first row, wherever this takes us 3) I'm still processing the drama, just found out about it after reading the blog post. If that happened based on private data, that's horrible. If that happened based on public tweets, then it's still abuse of power as OA employees access to compute (launching 10k agents) is quite heavy weight in boxing terms. But apart from AI and drama now that we have working solution to Navier-Stokes, what improvements can we expect in engineering? |
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| ▲ | 20k 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Drama aside, this solution would be a counterexample disproving the smoothness postulate, which means that it leads to nothing new unfortunately. We already had working solutions to navier stokes, the only thing we didn't know is if the equations possessed a technical property Its a bit like solving p = np with a negative result. Its an incredibly difficult problem, but it doesn't lead to anything at all on its own. This is why people are talking about the fact that the solution methodology is much more interesting than the solution - the tools used to crack something like this may lead to solving more useful problems | |
| ▲ | inkysigma 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | To be quite clear, the solution to the _Navier Stokes problem_ is one in which you get a finite time blow up (i.e. infinite pressure). This is more meant to suggest that Navier Stokes is unphysical in some way which is not necessarily unexpected. There's unlikely to be any engineering applications since even if the solution can be approximated, you still need to set up the initial conditions but at that point you can also drive pressure in other ways. | | |
| ▲ | thangalin 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | The proof of finite-time singularity may impact both fluid dynamics models (CFD) and AI reasoning models. Under specific conditions, Navier–Stokes equations allow velocity to grow infinitely, causing the continuum fluid assumption to break down. Knowing the exact mathematical breakdown mechanisms helps developers improve adaptive mesh refinement and sub-grid scale models around high-vorticity regions (like vortex stretching and turbulent shear layers). While aerodynamic simulations for vehicles operate far from singularity thresholds, their stability at extreme boundaries could improve? Proving out the combination of scaling inference-time compute and agent collaboration to solve previously intractable mathematical problems is WOW. By pairing creative candidate generation with automated proof checkers (like Lean) we are leaning into a repeatable framework for AI-driven scientific discovery. | | |
| ▲ | semi-extrinsic 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | > Knowing the exact mathematical breakdown mechanisms helps developers improve adaptive mesh refinement and sub-grid scale models around high-vorticity regions (like vortex stretching and turbulent shear layers). This is 100% wrong and reads like copy paste of AI slop. Any simulation which uses sub-grid scale models is already solving a different PDE than the actual Navier-Stokes considered in the Millenium problem, and that PDE is guaranteed to have different properties. Full stop. And to claim this is somehow connected to AMR methods is an example of the kind of pseudoscientific statement Wolfgang Pauli would have called "not even wrong". |
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| ▲ | xyzsparetimexyz 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > But apart from AI and drama now that we have working solution to Navier-Stokes, what improvements can we expect in engineering? Minor productivity boost in mathematics as people are no longer nerdsniped by the problem | |
| ▲ | cyberax 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > But apart from AI and drama now that we have working solution to Navier-Stokes, what improvements can we expect in engineering? Nothing, really. This mirrors other examples of blowups from the classical physics. It's possible to create a system with just gravitating bodies that exhibits a blowup to infinite speeds in a finite time. The root cause is that, in classical physics, the speed of gravity is instant. In the case of Navier-Stokes, the fluid is incompressible. So technically any force that you apply to it is supposed to instantly affect everything else. This can be exploited to create these blowups. In reality, no fluid is incompressible, and it takes time for any action to affect the material. It's just that Navier-Stokes equations are so slippery that it's hard to pin their behavior down. They basically just restate the momentum conservation law for a continuous medium. | | |
| ▲ | mcfry 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Great comment! I've been trying to understand it more and was hoping to find more people discussing the result, or the implications of the result, and this was the missing piece for me after watching a few videos. | | |
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| ▲ | trio8453 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > Do "normies" even know what's happening? No, there are even many non-normies talking about how it's all marketing or try to give balanced take about AI being sometimes a little useful for certain things (but they can do without it anyway). |
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| ▲ | ImaCake 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | I am absolutely struggling to sell my workplace (which is entirely knowledge work) on the usefulness of LLMs for proofreading let alone on automation of hairy parts of our workflows. So yeah, even people who should be able to see what is coming are not looking. | | |
| ▲ | sire-vc 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Our accountant told me 'he's not letting go of his claude subscription' followed by a long list of things it does for him. And my friend 'nah haven't really used AI' before his description of it clarified he still thinks they are GPT 3.5 chat bots. The world has changed in 12 months and many people didn't notice, and those that did are eating their peers' lunch. |
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| ▲ | stefap2 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| This just pushes knowledge work further up the ladder, toward larger and more complex problems. If there are no knowledge workers, who is going to interpret these results, validate them, decide what matters, and put them into practical use? Rather than eliminating knowledge work, advances like this could create entirely new layers of problems to solve and opportunities to pursue, which will create even more jobs and opportunities. This is my optimistic take. |
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| ▲ | munificent 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | > This just pushes knowledge work further up the ladder, toward larger and more complex problems. You really think it makes sense for you to be higher on the "solving complex problems ladder" than the machines that solved fucking Navier-Stokes? I envy your self-confidence. | | |
| ▲ | stefap2 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Maybe I should have been clearer. My point is that solving something like Navier–Stokes just pushes knowledge work further ahead, onto a new set of bigger and more complex problems. Navier–Stokes is a Millennium problem today, but once problems like that become solvable, they can open the door to entirely new classes of problems we haven’t even thought of yet. | | |
| ▲ | FridgeSeal 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Building on them without fundamentally understanding is akin to putting on robes, calling yourself a Tech-Priest, worshipping a machine god and doing your best Warhammer 40k impression. |
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| ▲ | fooker 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Yes, this is how science and engineering has worked for millennia. For example there are no engineering implications of this solution yet. For the next several decades, we'll have engineers (presumably with AI) optimize things like rocket engines and turbines and AC compressors to work a few percent better because the numerical approximations might have caused us to be overly conservative. AI is not going to magically solve all random problems. Pick a career where you are in the driver seat. | | |
| ▲ | semi-extrinsic 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | > For the next several decades, we'll have engineers (presumably with AI) optimize things like rocket engines and turbines and AC compressors to work a few percent better because the numerical approximations might have caused us to be overly conservative. No. Just no. |
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| ▲ | mlsu 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | It seems like there were a couple of human mathematicians that were higher on the 'solving complex problems ladder' than this machine. | | |
| ▲ | reducesuffering 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Yes a couple of elite mathematicians working on the problem for a year, which AGI solved in a fraction of the time. What about everyone else 100IQ? What about as the models are even better 1 year from now, 2 years? The trajectory hasn't abated. | | |
| ▲ | j_maffe 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > in a fraction of the time Well if you do the math, the number of agent-compute time in total, given the insane number of agents thrown at the problem, might end up being comparable in time, if not for the budget. | |
| ▲ | mlsu 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I don't know one way or another but there is a credible allegation that the "AGI" was training on the (very extensive) test set that these two mathematicians produced. If that is true then this seems to be, again, a case of AI producing an interpolation over data it has seen before. Everything about openAI's behavior indicates that they were using the transcripts as input. Why not have the AGI choose a different Millenium prize problem? | | |
| ▲ | FabCH 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Almost all of human development is interpolation over data we have seen before. It’s not exactly a strong argument against AI. | | |
| ▲ | FridgeSeal an hour ago | parent [-] | | If ~~someone gives you a hint about an approach~~ you steal someone’s notes about a promising approach, and then you hire 10,000 people to brute force the problem basically everyone would consider that “shitty behaviour”, “theft”, and “poor form”. |
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| ▲ | 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | [deleted] |
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| ▲ | 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | [deleted] |
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| ▲ | cyberax 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | It did not solve Navier-Stokes. We still will need to use the bad old numeric methods to simulate the fluid behavior. But it did find a long-suspected smooth solution with a singularity. |
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| ▲ | biophysboy 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Why is a "normie" better off if he hyperventilates like this? In that scenario, they would be screwed AND anxious. If it really is as transformational as you say, then no amount of preparation or awareness matters. You are infinitesimally more ready then they are. Luckily for all of us, there is more to knowledge work then technical implementation. |
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| ▲ | root_axis 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| It's incredible to me that every single time there's a new model people scream "singularity" from the rooftops and every time they are wrong. This is an impressive result, but there is absolutely zero evidence of "the singularity". |
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| ▲ | hackinthebochs 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | It is not reasonable to not believe anything unless there is "evidence" (narrowly construed as an observation incompatible with the negation of some state of affairs). Beliefs have a wide spectrum of characterizations, and not all belief must wait until publicly corroborated evidence is available. Some events defy evidence and we can and should use experience and reasoning to infer unobservable states of affairs. | | |
| ▲ | root_axis 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | This is olympic level mental gymnastics to justify believing things without evidence. The double negative with the word evidence in scare quotes is chef's kiss. | | |
| ▲ | hackinthebochs 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | I believe the sun will rise tomorrow without "evidence" (again, narrowly construed). We all do. It's only those who abuse the idea of epistemic hygiene who claim otherwise, usually with ulterior motives. | | |
| ▲ | root_axis 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | The evidence is the history of the sun rising since time immemorial, as well as the science of physics and cosmology that models the sun's motion with respect to the earth. | | |
| ▲ | hackinthebochs 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yes, reasoning with models and making inferences are perfectly acceptable forms of evidence. But you can model the world based on ones knowledge and experience and infer when some event doesn't fit the typical pattern, then form beliefs about what that means. Also perfectly fine from an epistemic perspective. The rejoinder "there's no evidence" to a belief based on such an inference does no work. |
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| ▲ | stratos123 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | ...obviously it is evidence of the singularity. You're far more likely to see models solving Millenium Prize problems if a singularity is coming than if it's not. One'd have to be doing quite a lot of mental gymnastics to pretend otherwise. | | |
| ▲ | root_axis 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Poor reasoning. You could apply the same logic to any improvement in any field of machine learning. | | |
| ▲ | stratos123 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Not every improvement, no - if progress was steady or slowing down over time, that'd be evidence against. Instead we see what looks a lot like an accelerating growth in capability. I think you are implying that it's invalid to consider every advance to be evidence "for", and I agree - that'd violate conservation of expected evidence. But not considering any advance to be evidence "for" is also invalid, for exactly the same reason. There has to be some news you may hear that'd make you think a singularity is more likely, and "millenium prize problem solved by an LLM" sure seems like one of those. |
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| ▲ | tantalor 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > Are we at the dawn of the singularity now Singularity doesn't "dawn". That's the whole idea. It happens all at once. |
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| ▲ | echelon 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | There's an event horizon and we're maybe past it? | | |
| ▲ | tantalor 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | Heh. Wrong "singularity" | | |
| ▲ | FabCH 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | They meant that even the happens-very-fast AI singularity isn’t sub-picosecond. It still exists in time, and has a duration. The event horizon would then be the time period between the singularity becoming inevitable and it actually happening. |
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| ▲ | armchairhacker 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Let's wait until AI solves a longstanding practical problem before "dawn of the singularity" (which could be tomorrow, but still). |
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| ▲ | reducesuffering 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Practical?! The goalposts will keep moving until morale improves (narrator: it doesn't) | | |
| ▲ | armchairhacker 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | The goalposts for the singularity have always been that AI improves itself fully autonomously. AFAIK OpenAI is heavily using AI but still employs human researchers and developers. | |
| ▲ | qlte 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Uh I'm pretty sure the "singularity" always presupposed a lot of previously unthinkable technologies becoming part of daily life, and was not ever limited to just computer stuff or math problems. "Moving the goalposts" as shallow dismissal doesn't work if e.g. someone points out AI hasn't even built a new type of spaceship yet in response to a claim that AI is on the verge of building a Dyson sphere. |
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| ▲ | bibimsz 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | feels like moving the goalpost. is the achievement impressive or isn't it? | | |
| ▲ | qlte 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | The question being posed isn't whether AI is impressive but whether we're at the "dawn of the singularity" | | |
| ▲ | bibimsz 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | i'm observing that rapidly moving goalposts is a feature of the singularity |
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| ▲ | baq 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > - First off, to reiterate, WOW. > - Second of all, when does this end? Are we at the dawn of the singularity now? normalcy overhang
n. /NOR-muhl-see OH-ver-hang/ The uncanny period during the Singularity when superintelligence is already accomplishing feats that seem like magic, yet everyday life still looks mostly the same. https://x.com/alexwg/status/2096214373001785794 |
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| ▲ | onidj 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| >- Do "normies" even know what's happening? Absolutely not. Even to a lot of techy/nerdy people it's still just a chatbot that they sometimes use to help them at work. Even on here people will do whatever they can to downplay. The lack of fucks given is staggering. |
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| ▲ | Bluestein 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Next month is going to be insane. Month ... |
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| ▲ | d_silin 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| ...absolutely nothing will change short-term. Long-term, you still have to pay all the bills, but you won't be able to find a job (all taken by AIs). |
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| ▲ | raincole 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| > People are saying OpenAI "stole" this from the work of an OpenAI user. If so, that's pretty fucked - how can we trust them? The said user (Tristan Buckmaster) didn't solve the millennium problem. He didn't really accuse that OpenAI stole his research either. The beef came from the fact OpenAI asked him to remove another mathematician, who works for Anthropic, from the credit. "People" are just misinformed and keep spreading misinformation. |
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| ▲ | 20k 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | https://mastodon.social/@tristanbuckmaster/11723647135247030... He very much is accusing them of stealing his work | |
| ▲ | bananzamba 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The accusation is that they stole his approach of solving it. If OpenAI didn't bruteforce it with dozens of agents, he would have solved Navier-Stokes eventually since he evidently had the right approach. So knowing which approach to take makes all the difference, if they didn't know the approach they couldn't have solved it. It's like he had a treasure map and was about to find the treasure, but they copied his treasure map and scooped him with a faster boat and found the treasure first. But he would have found it if it weren't for them. | |
| ▲ | naasking 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > The said user (Tristan Buckmaster) didn't solve the millennium problem. He didn't really accuse that OpenAI stole his research either. The beef came from the fact OpenAI asked him to remove another mathematician, who works for Anthropic, from the credit. Not quite accurate, Buckmaster was taking an approach that nobody else was, and this new proof uses this same approach just weeks after he saved those results to OpenAI workspaces. He asked OpenAI if they used chat logs for training the new model, and they did not confirm or deny. Asking to remove his collaborator is also totally over the line though. Edit: although this OpenAI post is not comforting: https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2097375276384567642 Quote: "While unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models. " | | |
| ▲ | stefap2 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Wow, this sentence is doing a lot of work in that tweet: "While unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models." | |
| ▲ | emp17344 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | You can expect the OpenAI defenders to be out in full force here. |
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| ▲ | achierius 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Have you read the actual statement https://cims.nyu.edu/~tristanb/statement.pdf ? > I should say here why I interpreted their statement the way I did, the in-
terpretation I will discuss below. The route to the Clay problem through a
smooth force, options c and d in Fefferman’s statement of the problem, is the
route Luis and Diego opened and the one Levent and I had quietly chosen to
attack. Almost nobody else I know of was working on it. It is not the direction
one arrives at in a few days by giving a model the problem statement. When I
heard “forced,” it was a bright red flag. ... > I asked when the first prompt had been sent by them. This question was
not answered directly by OpenAI for some time. Eventually it was agreed that
it had been sent in the past few days, after information about our work had
reached OpenAI.
> I asked whether the model had been trained on, or had access to, our sessions
in Codex, into which we had been putting all our drafts for the whole of this
project. I was told the model did not look up user data. I asked again, about
training, and I did not get an answer. It's not a direct accusation, but it's not far off. You shouldn't accuse other people of spreading misinformation when you haven't read the actual sources in question, it's possible that they might know more than you. | | |
| ▲ | raincole 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yes, I read the original statement. Buckmaster explicitly stated: > I have not seen OpenAI’s proof. I do not know what their model did, or how. I do not know whether our data was used. I am not accusing anyone of anything. People saying that he accuses OpenAI stole his proof are putting words into his mouth and I consider that very disrespectful to him. It's basically using Buckmaster as a tool to express their dissatisfaction over OpenAI. | | |
| ▲ | calf 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Buckmaster is letting the reader connect the dots, it is all the more disrespectful to be disingenuous and say they're nothing there concerning to see or worth further ethical scrutiny given the coincidences. |
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