| ▲ | k_sze 21 hours ago |
| No way SK is going to convince NK to abandon nukes. The point of having nukes is not to intimidate SK or JP. It is to deter the US. |
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| ▲ | thisislife2 12 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| NK doesn't have to abandon the nukes to have peace with South Korea. As it has abandoned re-unification, and now recognises South Korea as an independent state, they could move on to a hot and cold "hostile" relation like Pakistan and India, who have learnt to tolerate each other. |
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| ▲ | mimsee 10 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > ...cold "hostile" relation like Pakistan and India, who have learnt to tolerate each other. ..by launching missiles at each other just last year? | | |
| ▲ | thisislife2 10 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yes, but I guess it was a poor example. I was thinking that technically, they aren't at war all the time. Every decade or two, they declare a war and fight each other, and then settle. In between they even talk with each other civilly. |
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| ▲ | expedition32 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | South Korea needs to kick out the Americans though. That's more likely to be the real hold up. |
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| ▲ | vagrantJin 15 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Why should they give up their nukes? I'd like a rational, logically sound reason they should give up their nuclear research and or any war-heads already developed. |
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| ▲ | thisislife2 10 hours ago | parent [-] | | I can think of some: 1. North Korea doesn't really need a nuke. That the western allies of South Korea haven't attacked North Korea because it has nukes is overstated. The reason nobody has attacked North Korea yet is because South Koreans don't want to fight a war and endanger their economy. Geographical factors means that South Korea will face significant destruction - missile and artillery fire from NK already can target most regions of SK. And any war with North Korea guarantees the involvement of the Chinese and the Russians too. 2. If we accept the arguments of the west that the nukes are the only reason North Korea has been sanctioned, then giving up nuclear weapons should mean that all economic sanctions on North Korea would be lifted. North Korea already has a reasonably strong conventional military. If the sanctions are lifted, a strong economy + a strong conventional military (along with the military alliance with China and / or Russia) can be enough of a deterrent. Especially if North Korea also behaves as any other responsible nation. 3. Without giving up its nukes, even China and Russia won't allow an independent North Korea, with nukes, to become economically stronger or a democratic country. 4. Right now, the nukes are like an albatross around the neck. Getting rid of them voluntarily can provide immense benefits. NK already knows how to build nuclear weapons. With careful planning, they can resume a nuclear WMD program any time again in the future, if need be. 5. They do not have to give up their nuclear research or civilian nuclear programs. | | |
| ▲ | Analemma_ 10 hours ago | parent [-] | | I think in NK’s mind all of these reasons pale before the straightforward truth that nukes keep you safe and giving them up fucks you over. Libya: gave up its nukes; invaded. Ukraine: gave up its nukes; invaded. Iran: signed an agreement not to develop nukes; counterparty tore up the agreement and attacked. When has a nuclear-equipped nation been attacked lately? | | |
| ▲ | thisislife2 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | India (attacked by China, Pakistan in the recent past) and Israel (I actually don't believe Israel has nuclear weapons but still mentioning it as that is what is popularly accepted today). Nuclear weapons also didn't prevent a 9/11 attack on the US. | |
| ▲ | AnimalMuppet 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Russia, bombed just last night. I mean, it was in a war that they started, so Russia is the attackers. But the attacks are coming back, and the nukes aren't preventing that. | | |
| ▲ | redeeman 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | but perhaps they would if the adversary believed that they were fully willing to use them | | |
| ▲ | AnimalMuppet 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | There are two problems. The first is that Russia is trying to conquer Ukraine, not just to defeat it, but to have it. Nuking it kind of ruins the "having" part. Also, it's upwind from Russia. Nuking it would involve eating a lot of fallout. The second problem is that Russia has said what their doctrine is on the use of nukes. They will use them if an invasion cannot be stopped by conventional means, or if an attack has destroyed 20% of their nuclear deterrent. In their attacks, Ukraine is not touching Russia's nuclear weapons (except the odd bomber that is used for conventional attacks on Ukraine). Now, you could say that was a miscalculation on Russia's part, that they would be better off if Ukraine didn't know what would trigger Russia's nukes, and so Ukraine had to be more cautious. And you could be right. But that ambiguity could come back and bite them later, when someone else doesn't know what their doctrine is, and decides that a first strike is the best way of dealing with the uncertainty. |
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| ▲ | root-parent 14 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| That is also a fallacy. Iran has effectively defeated militarily the US, who threw everything at them with the exception of nuclear weapons or ground forces. US ground forces against a country 1/3 the size of China with 90 million people is guaranteed to be a US military defeat, so Iran just realized they were actually stronger than they though. NK looked at all this, and had zero issues in deploying 10,000 combat troops in active combat in Europe, in case you have not paid attention to Ukraine... If you use even one single nuclear weapon, either as North Korea or Iran, you can be assured of being turn to ashes in the next minutes. So they dont make sense as a weapon, they are more of a status symbol. |
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| ▲ | thisislife2 11 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > Iran has effectively defeated militarily the US, who threw everything at them ... Let's not lose track of the truth in the hubris. The Iranian strategy to immediately target all the alliance partners of the US ("peace and prosperity for everyone or no one") in the region has lead to a stalemate in the war, with both side recognising that their goals cannot be achieved militarily without a very high cost. (And as you noted, the US has only used a quarter of its firepower yet). But, just like the Ukranians, Iran shouldn't forget that they are fighting a superpower, with a stronger economy and military than them, and neither Ukraine or Iran can defeat them in a conventional sense, if at all. Any nation can survive against a stronger enemy, as both India and Iran have proved with their civilisational heritage. However, the true test of good leadership is survival without extreme harm and suffering to the people while ensuring the unity of the nation. | | |
| ▲ | xorcist 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > both side recognising that their goals cannot be achieved militarily without a very high cost What are "both sides", exactly, and what are their respective goals? To an outside observer, it would seem that the Iranian regime's goal is to stay in power, and that they are in a better position to do that now than before the bombing. They have even unlocked a previously unheard of bonus, to put tariff on transports through Hormuz, which they never had the power to do before. As an outsider it is hard to understand why this is happening and how it will end, unless all these concessions served to the Iranian regime were deemed worth it as distraction from domestic issues. | |
| ▲ | root-parent 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | >> However, the true test of good leadership is survival without extreme harm and suffering to the people while ensuring the unity of the nation. You are aware Iran fought a 8 year war with Iraq? With over 1 million casualties, and they wanted to continue that war? Do you remember all the fuss when ONE US pilot was shot down? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War | | |
| ▲ | thisislife2 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yes, and I see the 8 year Iraq-Iran war as a sign of poor leadership on both sides. Just as I now consider Zelensky allowing the Ukraine-Russia war to drag on for 4+ years now as a foolish endeavour under his stewardship (especially as Ukraine has no real hope of winning the war). Stepping back from a conflict, even if the terms aren't ideal, shouldn't be considered a defeat (think like your enemy - the US never retreats, it only does "conflict management" when the odds are against it). Prioritise people's well-being over territory, over everything because without them you have no civilisation or culture to preserve. (India has fought many wars since independence, but never allowed any of it to drag on for years). All that said, I will concede that the current foes of Iran are irrational fanatics, and Iran has very difficult choices to make ... | | |
| ▲ | froggy 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > Just as I now consider Zelensky allowing the Ukraine-Russia war to drag on for 4+ years now as a foolish endeavour What is he supposed to do? Give up and let the barbarians rape and plunder his nation? Would you want to live under Russian rule? Zelenskyy is doing exactly the right things. His short and long range strikes inside Russia are severely damaging the Russian economy and war machine. Russia has lost Ukrainian territory in their offensive this spring/summer, and Russian frontline soldiers are being killed and injured at a far higher rate than Ukrainian soldiers who are leaning on a millions-of-drones shield. If you want your continued freedom in whatever country you live in, you better be praying Ukraine defeats Russia. Your country may be next if not. | |
| ▲ | fatbird 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | If Ukraine surrendered now, ceding occupied territories and perhaps giving up some extra in the Donbas, all that would happen is a pause that Russia desperately wants to rebuild and rearm, and return in a couple years (as it did in Chechnya and Georgia). There's no benefit to Ukraine in doing so without real security guarantees--far more than the empty promises they had before, meaning third party forces patrolling a DMZ. Until that happens, Zelensky and Ukrainians recognize that continuing to bleed Russia on the battlefield while building their capabilities and stressing Russia's economy is the only viable strategy. No conventional victory is possible for either side, it's a race between who collapses first, and in this, Ukraine is doing well: receiving aid from, and building relationships around the world. It was never an option for Zelensky to stop the war from dragging on. Thank God he recognized that. |
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| ▲ | swat535 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Iranian here, you're missing an important point: we're a nuclear threshold state. Meaning we can build weapons in a short manner if need be. This is the reason the security counsel refuses to give up any of its uranium.. and to be fair, I've had a change of heart regarding this. I think the only true deterrence against a nuclear power state is nuclear weapons. It assures at a minimum that your country won't be nuked. A big reason why Israel hasn't completely destroyed Iran with nukes is the fact that it's a small country and Iran can take it out. Israel having nukes is also another reason why Iran isn't hitting them as hard, it's to avoid backing them in a corner. I think that after the current Russia / Ukraine and Iran / US war, it's becoming very apparent to many countries that your nation is only secure if you have nuclear deterrence. | |
| ▲ | inigyou 14 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Iran has famously impenetrable geography on its side. | | |
| ▲ | wolvoleo 13 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | It's not only Iran though. The US and allies (including my own country) accomplished nothing in Afghanistan, 2 weeks after they left quite chaotically the country was back to the state of 20 years ago before the war. So many people died for nothing. So many billions wasted. And trump can't control Israel despite them being totally dependent on US weapons. He doesn't manage to reel Putin in. The world is in a super chaotic state, pax Americana is really over. I don't think the classification superpower really applies anymore to the US. And that's mainly because being a superpower isn't only about military power. You can't just bend the world to your will by shooting people. There's a lot of geopolitical goodwill and diplomacy involved too, and the US has thoroughly set that on fire by turning on its strongest allies. The diplomacy is what makes a superpower. The military is just the backup. I don't think there are any true superpowers anymore, though I do think China is on the rise to become one. Which I'm not happy with but of course that's the thing about superpowers, there's nothing we can do about it. | | |
| ▲ | inigyou 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Military overrides diplomacy - if you have it. That's the story of Russia and the USA as world superpowers. Russia fell apart as a superpower the moment its military was actually tested and turned out to be useless. The USA is going the same way. The USA doesn't only have its military to rely on the way Russia did - it also has the world reserve currency and de facto control of the internet. So it may fall more slowly as long as nobody else's military challenges it on home turf. | |
| ▲ | daymanstep 13 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The Taliban was actually very rapidly pushed out of Afghanistan by the US working together with the Northern Alliance. The real problem was that the US couldn't reach into Pakistan to fully end the Taliban for good. Thus the Taliban was allowed to rebuild and reconstitute its forces over the years waiting for the US to finally pull out of Afghanistan. | | |
| ▲ | wolvoleo 10 hours ago | parent [-] | | But if they had really been a superpower they would have had the diplomatic ties and military strength to do that. I mean Pakistan was harboring Bin Laden himself no less. However I don't agree, the Taliban was never really eradicated within Afghanistan either. That's why they came back so quickly. In fact even in provinces far from the border they came back every night. Our forces would build a water well for the local citizens, and the same night the Taliban would come and blow it up and rape half the village. They didn't withdraw into Pakistan every night. |
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| ▲ | petre 13 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The US couldn't handle Vietnam either. Iran is a citadel by comparison. |
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| ▲ | arcbyte 12 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | [flagged] | | |
| ▲ | root-parent 11 hours ago | parent [-] | | And the arguments and logic behind your reply is...to state your opinion about my comment? No evidence, no reasoning, no logical statement, no counter point...Jesus, what a level of entitlement... | | |
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| ▲ | dessimus 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Deter the US from what exactly? In what capacity has the US been aggressors towards NK that isn't in support of SK or Japan? If anything China props up NK to keep a Western-aligned unified Korea off their border. |
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| ▲ | dosisking 11 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > Deter the US from what exactly? Just in case this is a serious question, the US has invaded Iran and Venezuela most recently. The US previously invaded Iraq. What do they have in common? They don't have nukes. | | |
| ▲ | dessimus 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | They also have something NK doesn't: vast oil reserves. If they did, they be even more of a vassal state to China than they currently are, if they even existed as a separate state at all. Also, NK's sabre-rattling has been going on for decades and is not a response to Trump's actions. |
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| ▲ | WhyNotHugo 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | After WWII, the southern part of Korean was under American occupation (it was previously under Japanese occupation, but Japan surrendered to the US). It was the US occupation that installed installed the precursor of current government, with elections which had a lot of boycotts/opposition/oppression. Right wing killed a few hundred thousands locals during these times. To be clear: I'm not justifying anything here, or claiming that you should share this viewpoint. I'm answering your question: how could NK possibly see the US as an aggressor. |
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| ▲ | derelicta 19 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| That's also how I see it. If they want long-lasting peace, it will be a nuclear-enforced one. The DPRK has witnessed way too many times in its lifetime what happens to countries that naively give up their nukes. The atom is still one of the best guarantors of national sovereignty. |
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| ▲ | NetOpWibby 19 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| Especially with a nut job like Drumpf at the helm. It’d be great to see a united Korea though. |
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| ▲ | wolvoleo 14 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Ending the war is one thing. Reunion, I don't see that happening in the next decades. Don't forget how much poverty and indoctrination is there. And who would govern the combined Korea? The two governments are worlds apart. Ending the war might enable them to grow towards each other. But that will take decades. | |
| ▲ | petre 13 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Not going to happen. China and Russia won't let it happen, since the DPRK is a buffer state. Kim has his nukes and doesn't want to lose power. Basically Soth Korea doesn't have any allies in the area, aside from US which has bases in Guam and Okinawa and has been unreliable under the current administration. |
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