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Analemma_ 10 hours ago

I think in NK’s mind all of these reasons pale before the straightforward truth that nukes keep you safe and giving them up fucks you over. Libya: gave up its nukes; invaded. Ukraine: gave up its nukes; invaded. Iran: signed an agreement not to develop nukes; counterparty tore up the agreement and attacked. When has a nuclear-equipped nation been attacked lately?

thisislife2 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

India (attacked by China, Pakistan in the recent past) and Israel (I actually don't believe Israel has nuclear weapons but still mentioning it as that is what is popularly accepted today). Nuclear weapons also didn't prevent a 9/11 attack on the US.

AnimalMuppet 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Russia, bombed just last night.

I mean, it was in a war that they started, so Russia is the attackers. But the attacks are coming back, and the nukes aren't preventing that.

redeeman 6 hours ago | parent [-]

but perhaps they would if the adversary believed that they were fully willing to use them

AnimalMuppet 5 hours ago | parent [-]

There are two problems. The first is that Russia is trying to conquer Ukraine, not just to defeat it, but to have it. Nuking it kind of ruins the "having" part. Also, it's upwind from Russia. Nuking it would involve eating a lot of fallout.

The second problem is that Russia has said what their doctrine is on the use of nukes. They will use them if an invasion cannot be stopped by conventional means, or if an attack has destroyed 20% of their nuclear deterrent. In their attacks, Ukraine is not touching Russia's nuclear weapons (except the odd bomber that is used for conventional attacks on Ukraine).

Now, you could say that was a miscalculation on Russia's part, that they would be better off if Ukraine didn't know what would trigger Russia's nukes, and so Ukraine had to be more cautious. And you could be right. But that ambiguity could come back and bite them later, when someone else doesn't know what their doctrine is, and decides that a first strike is the best way of dealing with the uncertainty.