| ▲ | jsLavaGoat 3 hours ago |
| I thought the AI bubble was supposed to pop in two weeks a month ago? |
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| ▲ | Arn_Thor 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| the market can remain irrational longer than I can stay solvent |
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| ▲ | simianwords 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | 1. Make a prediction about bubble 2. Get it wrong 3. Excuse yourself by claiming market is irrational | | |
| ▲ | watwut an hour ago | parent [-] | | That is the quote of famous financial advisor made in 1986. It keeps being repeated, because bubbles and their pops and irrational markets are frequent enough. There is nothing controversial about claim that markets are irrational, bubbles pop impossible to predict while bubble being visible. Previous bubbles were the same. | | |
| ▲ | simianwords an hour ago | parent [-] | | The problem with this type of thinking is that it deliberately ignores the times that bubbles were predicted incorrectly. Imagine there was a guy. He kept predicting that a war may happen in 1 year. Keeps getting it wrong. In 59 a years a war does happen. He then retroactively justifies his wrong predictions by claiming “but people are irrational and it’s hard to predict”. | | |
| ▲ | watwut an hour ago | parent [-] | | Past bubbles I read about were recognized correctly for years before they popped. The pop was hard to predict, the bubble was routinelly recognized. These were not wrong prections, these were correct assesments of the situation. Bubble exists before it pops. Markets being irrational is again, nothing controversial. That is history. Your war predicting guy is a made up analogy. And he may just be correct about his assesment of the situation - war is being actively planned and prepared, actors want it and we are all waiting till Trump or Hitler or whoever decides that "now". |
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| ▲ | Lerc 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Nah, it must have already happened, I saw a video on YouTube that said it was imminent a year ago. |
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| ▲ | camillomiller 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| Nobody with a minimum of credibility says that. Everyone says this is clearly a bubble and yet it could go on another couple of years.
Nobody is timing it. But if you want to deny the obvious by numbers go ahead |
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| ▲ | simianwords an hour ago | parent [-] | | Ed has timed it. https://x.com/edzitron/status/1817955630784917548 > Newsletter: Based on estimates of their burn rate and historic analyses, I hypothesize that OpenAI will collapse in the next 12-24 months unless it raises more funding than in the history of the valley and creates an entirely new form of AI. He posted this in 2024 June btw.
He certainly doesn’t believe that OpenAI has a new form of AI. So where’s the collapse? Since then the revenue growth was exponential. | | |
| ▲ | mawadev an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | I honestly see it this way: there is a vibe shift around AI and he is capitalizing on it. It is nothing more than that. If you listen to the videos he repeats the same few bulletpoints and is basically a news person at this point. I like a good doomer post and I welcome this type of discourse, no matter how inflammatory. This but instead of the AI is gonna replace us all talk we've had for a much longer time.
Same coin, same patterns, different side... Influencers just have to dominate one topic once and make bank, then pull out | |
| ▲ | camillomiller an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | I like Ed in general but he’s acting as an influencer, therefore I wouldn’t place him under the broader credibility umbrella. |
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