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Arn_Thor 2 hours ago

the market can remain irrational longer than I can stay solvent

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simianwords 2 hours ago | parent [-]

1. Make a prediction about bubble

2. Get it wrong

3. Excuse yourself by claiming market is irrational

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watwut an hour ago | parent [-]

That is the quote of famous financial advisor made in 1986. It keeps being repeated, because bubbles and their pops and irrational markets are frequent enough.

There is nothing controversial about claim that markets are irrational, bubbles pop impossible to predict while bubble being visible. Previous bubbles were the same.

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simianwords an hour ago | parent [-]

The problem with this type of thinking is that it deliberately ignores the times that bubbles were predicted incorrectly.

Imagine there was a guy. He kept predicting that a war may happen in 1 year. Keeps getting it wrong. In 59 a years a war does happen. He then retroactively justifies his wrong predictions by claiming “but people are irrational and it’s hard to predict”.

	▲	watwut an hour ago \| parent [-]
		Past bubbles I read about were recognized correctly for years before they popped. The pop was hard to predict, the bubble was routinelly recognized. These were not wrong prections, these were correct assesments of the situation. Bubble exists before it pops. Markets being irrational is again, nothing controversial. That is history. Your war predicting guy is a made up analogy. And he may just be correct about his assesment of the situation - war is being actively planned and prepared, actors want it and we are all waiting till Trump or Hitler or whoever decides that "now".