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| ▲ | chasd00 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | sheesh i didn't say a datacenter-in-space was a good/feasibnle idea. The point i was making is I feel that building power plants to power a datacenter is turning out to be harder than software people realize and multi-year (or worse) delays likely the result. | |
| ▲ | ww520 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Space DC make sense when local governments and communities don't want DC built on Earth. Space DC is an engineering and finance problem, not a problem in legal/permission, real estate, power generation, grid delivery, environmental, etc. | | |
| ▲ | gtowey 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | You think that building out space infrastructure is a less hard problem to solve than bribing a few local governments to get some building permits? | | |
| ▲ | panny 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | >a less hard problem to solve than bribing a few local governments Wouldn't it be best if the data centers were just... good neighbors? Like everyone talking about illegal bribes and impossible moonshots when the answer is just don't suck? | | |
| ▲ | fhdkweig 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | We are well past the point of these companies caring about their reputations. People are already losing their homes over this. Here is Penguinz0's commentary on a news report of GA Power eminent domaining someone's home to run a power line through it to power a data center. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bySJ-oVGtvs | |
| ▲ | lightbritefight 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The issue with this is that datacenters are inherent "suck" machines. It takes a lot more effort and cost for them to not suck then for them to suck, so "sucking" is part of their core design. Up till recently, they were a rare enough object that distressed communities still saw the glitz and glam that they are sold with as valuable. Now that brutalist assholes are trying to jam them in every nook and cranny of the earth, word is getting out and people aren't buying it anymore. There have been some attempts to try floating or water immersed data centers that mitigate or at least hide some of their suckiness, but these were hard and costly, so the incentives weren't there to do them anyway. Maybe now those ideas will resurface and improve, but I expect "bribe, con or sue rural community to destroy their quality of life" is still cheaper and easier. |
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| ▲ | jonlucc 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Isn't it still far simpler and cheaper to build and maintain a DC in the most rural parts of North America than to launch it to space? |
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| ▲ | wmf 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | For whatever reason, nobody is trying to build solar-powered AI datacenters. Maybe they can't find enough land. | | |
| ▲ | fckgw 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | The space required to install enough solar panels, especially in the places these things are going (like Ohio, where it's NOT ideal for solar generation), would far, far outsize the data center itself by a significant magnitude. | |
| ▲ | treis 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Half the time you get 0 solar power. | |
| ▲ | quickthrowman 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | It takes 2.5 million solar panels to generate 1GW of electricity assuming 400W per panel and direct sunlight. 2.5M times 18 sq ft per panel is about 1000 acres or ~1.55 sq mi. That would work for a 1 GW data center, during the day, without clouds, during the summer. | | |
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| ▲ | ai-x 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Space Datacenters are an engineering problem (laws of physics allows it) Earth Datacenters are a human, NIMBY, ego, misinformation, legal, bureaucracy problem. I'm going to bet on Space Datacenters. Edit: classic HN lacking imagination and always wrong about the future https://youtu.be/FKHENV75b9Q?si=JFBsT2HinR02AI4P | | |
| ▲ | henry2023 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Sending to LEO costs around $2,700 usd and 9kWh of fuel per kilogram. If you manage to send a data center with high end processing units, large array of solar panels, even larger liquid cooling and tick shielding against solar rays you’d have spent probably 100x to 1000x the cost of an equivalent earth data center even without considering hardware deprecation. You’re better off sinking your data center deep in the sea and even that is probably not happening at large scales. | | | |
| ▲ | Scaled 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Space data centers are an intrinsically cool idea, and honestly I hope we see at least one for the sheer marvel of such a project. But to be cost efficient, it has to be cheaper than rural US, cheaper than buying some island, cheaper than setting it up on a converted freighter ship and tanking the fuel in, etc. BUT once Earth has a fully paid off space elevator the unit economics will make sense, or if we have orbital space factories and don't have any lift costs, etc. It's all possible, but at a 50 year+ timescale and immense investment. All of which I hope for because I'd like to see more space development and exploration. | |
| ▲ | _keats 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I think the question here is: do the laws of economics allow it? | | |
| ▲ | ai-x 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yes. https://youtu.be/FKHENV75b9Q?si=JFBsT2HinR02AI4P | | |
| ▲ | sumeno 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Oh, well, if the CEO of a company who only exists to try to convince people it is possible says it's possible on a podcast hosted by a VC firm who also wants to convince people it is possible so they can make their money back then it must be! I've always wondered who is gullible enough to even bother watching this kind of garbage, thank you for answering that question. |
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| ▲ | DauntingPear7 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | How do the laws of physics allow it? How do you disperse the heat? How do you protect your compute from cosmic rays? How do you get enough solar up there without catastrophic damage from micrometeorites? | | | |
| ▲ | dh2022 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | How much SpaceX stock did you buy? Are you buying this dip? | |
| ▲ | bryanlarsen 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Space data centers require hundreds of daily launches. Disney and the massive industries around Canaveral will NIMBY it hard. |
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| ▲ | mike_hearn 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | On Earth it has to be fossil fuels. With solar you can't do it. I haven't done the calculations myself so, full disclosure, AI work ahead. But I asked GPT 5.6 how big a solar and battery farm would have to be to power a one gigawatt datacenter such that it could ride out a few cloudy days in a row (this is far below the reliability bar). Its answer is you'd need an "absurdly large battery" and a solar farm of over 100 square kilometers, quite possibly up to over 200 square kilometers. And it would need to be built in the desert. Also, normal utility scale LiON battery sites are only meant to provide stabilization services for hours, not days. The problem is you have to overspec the solar farm quite a lot because it must not only be able to power a one gigawatt facility, but also generate more than that so it can recharge the battery packs during the day too. So this just doesn't work. You think datacenter permitting is bad when it only requires some on-site gas turbines? Imagine the difficulty of getting a 200 square kilometer solar farm over the finishing line. No, it's quite possible Elon is going to win this one. Regulation is expensive! He can just fire a constant stream of satellites into space. The constellation needed to provide a gigawatt of inferencing would be about the same size as today's Starlink system, well within the bounds of what he's proven can be done. The threat to space based datacenters isn't really the physics of it. It's the risk of a bubble pop that temporarily craters demand and/or an overbuild of terrestrial capacity. Outside of the software industry we don't see huge new blocks of inferencing demand, and OpenAI at least doesn't seem capacity constrained at all right now. | | |
| ▲ | bronson 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Why restrict yourself to 100% solar? Solar augmented by grid is pretty great. Also, you very conspicuously avoided talking about the difficulty/impact of a 1GW datacenter in space. One might suspect your motives aren't as impartial as you seem to think. | | |
| ▲ | mike_hearn 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | The whole problem is difficulty getting grid connections on Earth. If you can just hook up to the grid then why not just use it for everything. I don't have any motives, what are you talking about? I don't own SpaceX stock if that's what you're thinking. What's the difficulty of a 1GW datacenter in space? The number of satellites it requires seems to be within the realm of what SpaceX has already achieved. If the calculations are wrong, by all means say so, I haven't checked them. | | |
| ▲ | rented_mule 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > What's the difficulty of a 1GW datacenter in space? Simple back of the envelope calculations? Let's assume your numbers are correct and that panels in space can generate 10x the power per square meter per 24 hour period (due to efficiency, lack of night, and lack of atmosphere/weather). That means 10 KM^2 are needed for one such data center. The largest we've built in space is ~3,000 M^2 on the ISS. So one of these DCs in space will require an array ~3,000 times the size of the largest we've built before. Or, it's going to require ~3,000 satellites, each with an array the size of the largest we've ever deployed. The largest Starlink satellites currently deployed generate less than 30 KW each. We'd need more than 30,000 of those to generate this much power. Starlink has launched ~12,500 to date, with ~10,000 still functioning. So 3x the size of the functioning fleet that's taken 8+ years to deploy. Currently, we are deploying well under 5,000 per year. Let's assume we can come up with enough spare capacity to launch 5,000 per year. That's 6 years to deploy the first 1GW DC. By the time we get to 1GW, the average GPU is 3 years old. So we need to continue to deploy 5,000 satellites per year to maintain 1GW of GPUs that are, on average, 3 years behind current generation GPU designs. This is all before we get to the economics of launching, the cost of the satellites themselves, heat dissipation, radiation hardening, hardware failure rates (~20% of deployed Starlink satellites are no longer functioning), etc. | |
| ▲ | bronson 41 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | > What's the difficulty of a 1GW datacenter in space? Why don't you ask your AI, the way you did with your earth-based scenario? |
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| ▲ | abirch 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | How do you cool the data center in space cost effectively? Unfortunately in space there isn't a lot of material (air) to transfer the heat. | | |
| ▲ | mike_hearn 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | You can just use ordinary radiators. Do the calculations, cooling isn't the problem it's made out to be. | | |
| ▲ | abirch 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | It's the size of the radiators and the expense of getting them up into orbit (along with maintenance) Most of my assumptions come from discussions like:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46876105 | |
| ▲ | sokka_h2otribe 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | (1) these are not ordinary radiators because ordinary radiators aren't gold plated and don't unfold dramatically from compact shipping sizes
(2) It's absolutely loads of radiators |
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| ▲ | bryanlarsen 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | 100 square kilometers sounds like a big area. And it is, in continental Europe or in an urban area. In Montana, it's enough space for a few hundred cows. In desert regions, it's worth even less. You can buy 100 square kilometres of unserviced desert land for ~$10M. | | |
| ▲ | mgerdts 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Even better, get rid of the mandate for ethanol and cover a portion of the ex corn fields with solar panels with native plants under and around them. A small portion of the land that is near existing transmission lines is needed to replace combustion vehicles with electric vehicles. The bulk of the rest of this land could be available for other uses, including data centers. This gives: sustained income for landowners, CO2 reduction, power for new uses, and partially restored ecosystems that have been greatly harmed by chemical laden monocultures. |
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