| ▲ | Danox 8 hours ago |
| The honeymoon is over. Among regular citizens, gamers and some groups of tech, many are now incensed by the cost of memory, I was once mildly enthusiastic about AI but now not so much. |
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| ▲ | nfw2 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| Demand crunches spur supply chain capacity improvements when the market is left alone from populist interventions. |
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| ▲ | CraigJPerry 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Sounds like a certainty stated like that. So not like toilet paper during covid? what if the market was hard to enter? What if the inputs aren't available? What if the costs of the inputs rises? What if the capital for expansion isn't available? What if the manufacturers don't expect demand to persist? What if there's a shortage of skilled labour? What if it takes years to expand supply? What if there wasn't effective competition? I'm not sure it's as certain as you seem to claim. | |
| ▲ | atmavatar 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | With consumer brands (e.g., Crucial) being shuttered in the wake of AI companies buying up all available RAM production capacity, it's difficult to imagine consumer RAM production even returning to normal anytime soon. It seems all but assured that it will require the AI bubble to burst plus several years to return to normalcy, particularly as RAM manufacturers have also been repeatedly caught price fixing. | |
| ▲ | surgical_fire 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Ahh the "free market" fable. Like any fable it is a cute story. It is also bullshit. | |
| ▲ | throwawayqqq11 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Do you regard delusional billionaire circular funding as populist intervention too? | |
| ▲ | danaris 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | That only happens if the producers don't a) believe the crunch is caused by a bubble that's going to pop in a few months, or b) see the crunch as primarily an opportunity to rake in enormous short-term profits. |
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| ▲ | RajT88 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| The mass data center build out is only partly driven by AI. There is a big cloud capacity crunch across the big providers, has been for a while and it is getting worse. |
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| ▲ | shimman 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | There is no cloud capacity crunch, what a bunch of hog wash. What we've mostly got are some of the most inefficient systems on the planet where consumers are also building some of the most inefficient projects on top of it. There is no real effort being put towards maximizing the amount of resources you can get out of hardware, the game for the entire duration of our industry has been throwing more money to buy more hardware. Now that there are actual limits happening, there still isn't any major motivation to truly rewrite things to be better or more efficient. What they're trying to do instead is force the US government to bail them out via corporate welfare or to threaten allies into buying their wares. | | |
| ▲ | RajT88 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | That's certainly another way of looking at it. But the ground truth is: Cloud customers want to deploy more resources, and they can't build data centers and fill them with hardware fast enough to meet that demand. Cloud customers are fighting for who gets to the front of the line to deploy more stuff. That part is undeniable. | |
| ▲ | senordevnyc 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | So why don’t these orgs who are voracious for profits just rewrite things to be more efficient? Probably because rewriting things also uses a scarce resource: organizational attention. I’m in this boat myself on a micro scale: I run a fleet of GPU servers for my SaaS and I know that I could improve the efficiency of what I’m running on them by 20% or more, but it’s far cheaper and more effective in the short run to just throw more hardware at the problem than for me to spend weeks or months overhauling things. At some point the scales may tip, but right now hardware is still cheaper than my time is. | | |
| ▲ | RajT88 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | New features trump optimization most times, in my experience. New business is easier to win than lose old business. |
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| ▲ | AviationAtom 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Once the demand from AI companies lets up there will be some bangin' deals |
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| ▲ | Spooky23 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| That’s just a minor speed bump in the circus of criminality that has been created by the US regime. When Elon did his thing, it was way more than just firing federal workers. They dismantled key parts of the regulatory system. The SEC was purged, the lawyers were chased out of DoJ, and contracts that were key to external/industry groups like FINRA were terminated — they purged most of their staff. AI and crypto is just the means of the grift. The corruption vig being applied to the markets is distorting everything. We see it with memory and food. |
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| ▲ | Zigurd 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| The public seems to be aware that it's a hype driven grift, much more so than when it was a flood of DTC dot-coms, or plowing fiber to nowhere. There's so much money sloshing around that people correctly believe the potential for corruption of their supposedly representatives is rife. People know Kevin O'Leary isn't a real businessman, and the crypto bros pivoting to AI data centers are scammers. The incentives, especially property tax concessions, all look like corporate welfare. Who in the right mind would support Larry Ellison getting a tax break? |
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| ▲ | g42gregory 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | > Who in the right mind would support Larry Ellison getting a tax break? As Kevin O'Leary said to the interviewer recently, when asked why he is getting subsidized by the tax payers: "You don't understand how free markets work..." You can't make this up. | | |
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| ▲ | mikestew 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I'm sure it's more than the cost of memory. The person that does all of their computing on their phone doesn't care. They do care that aspect of life is infected with this shit. From the useless "AI" chatbot that is really just a reskin of their old POS chatbot (or an "Actual Indian"), to the U. S. government talking about giving money to these companies ('cuz ol' Larry and Elon need the money), all the way to the tech bros that will...not...shut up about it. And to drive it all, we'll need to put a jet engine next to your house, sorry. Cryptocurrency was mildly annoying, then AI said "hold my beer...". |
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| ▲ | Hamuko 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | >The person that does all of their computing on their phone doesn't care. Budget phones are a category are getting fucked, and there's a pretty good chance the next iPhone is gonna cost even more than it does now. | |
| ▲ | sofixa 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Don't forget the US government openly bragging about using AI for targeting in the Iran war, while also trying to pretend it didn't strike a school and kill a few hundred schoolchildren. (No we don't know if it was AI that made the mistake, and it's not like we're likely to get a proper investigation into it) | | |
| ▲ | throwaway85825 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | The school used to be a military base office. Acting on stale data is common for both humans and ML models. | | |
| ▲ | sofixa 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | And a wall between the two was built a decade ago. Considering it was hit on day one, obviously it was considered an important target, which makes it inexcusable that nobody checked it in a decade. https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/4314de... | | |
| ▲ | throwaway85825 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | A navy base on the contested straight of hormuz is always going to be a priority target. Militaries have pre existing contingency plans. Typically military bases don't move very fast. | | |
| ▲ | sofixa 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | A decade to realise that a military base has been resized and there is an obvious school on what used to be a part of the same property isn't fast. | | |
| ▲ | mpyne 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | "isn't fast" is basically how you'd sum up the U.S. military in a nutshell. So much of what it is in the past 3 decades is coasting off its Cold War legacy. Target lists for an Iran scenario should absolutely have been updated before use for combat, but if it turned out they had not been substantively reviewed ab initio in a decade, I'd absolutely believe it. | |
| ▲ | throwaway85825 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | It's not like iran has a public list of military facilities and what theyre used for. |
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| ▲ | naturalmovement 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| They're venting their anger on social media apps, which are powered not by datacenters but by an invisible angel that takes your message and places it on everyone else's phone. Arming the dumbest among us with smartphones aka portable TV studios was one of the biggest mistakes we made as a society. |
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| ▲ | urbnspacecowboy 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > They're venting their anger on social media apps "Heh. Gotcha." < https://thenib.com/mister-gotcha/ > | |
| ▲ | Hamuko 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Did our demand for social media apps suddenly blow up? Because our DC demand seems to be blowing up. | | |
| ▲ | hettygreen 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I'd love to see an answer to this question.. You'd think the datacenter boom would have happened during COVID when everyone was stuck at home ordering everything online, streaming everything and doing zoom calls all day as they work from home. But the fact that it's happening now is weird. Everyone I know has cooled on AI, even my most AI loving friends are no longer using it for art, porn or therapy. So is it all speculative? Companies hoping to get in on the "AI goldrush"? Could this be nefarious? Instead of one big underground secret military datacenter, distribute a resilient network of regular datacenters all around the country that are also used for civilian purposes. | |
| ▲ | naturalmovement 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I'm curious how the HN zeitgeist hates datacenters so ferociously yet every third article posted to the front page is 800 comments beating off to a new Claude feature. It's mind-boggling. | | |
| ▲ | bigbadfeline 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > yet every third article posted to the front page is 800 comments beating off to a new Claude feature In addition to the bot farms, many in the AI related fields have plenty of perverse incentives to participate - for reasons other than genuine interest. That's why I don't read those threads, although the marketing angle is easy to see it's also prevalent and laboring to filter out all 90% of it isn't worth the effort. | |
| ▲ | Zigurd 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Let's assume you're not lumping all data centers in together in bad faith. Just like Elon's tunnels are not a subway system, a repurposed crypto mine isn't a real AI data center. There's a right way to build, fund, and power data centers, and a sketchy, unethical, greedy, polluting, inflationary, and financially corrupt way to do it. | |
| ▲ | thegrim33 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Half the traffic on this site are real, intelligent humans (among whom opinion is split different ways on the AI topic), a quarter of the traffic is propagandists trying to destroy western tech/infrastructure/society (notice how China apparently doesn't have to stop AI development or datacenter development, only the West does), and the remaining quarter is real humans who have been utterly consumed by the previously mentioned propagandists and are parroting the same messaging. | | |
| ▲ | bigbadfeline 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > a quarter of the traffic is propagandists trying to destroy western tech/infrastructure/society The most effective enemy propaganda is called "sticker shock". When the sticker goes up in a week, it's double propaganda. I'm fully onboard with the idea of stopping the propaganda producers from continuing to do it. | |
| ▲ | nfw2 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | This violates Occam's razor despite it being sort of an obvious thing I would do if I was ccp | |
| ▲ | Zigurd 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | You're thinking of trains and rail lines. They deployed an obnoxious billionaire to dig tunnels that are useless and to propagandize against mass transit, while building the world's envy of a rail system. On the other hand, the Chinese lag way behind in data centers. Odd. | |
| ▲ | Freedom2 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I struggle sometimes to accept this. This site has been fostering great, curious discussion thanks to everyone diligently following the posting guidelines. As such, if everyone was discussing curiously, how could one simply parrot propaganda? It's unfathomable, and worse, goes against the commenting guidelines. |
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| ▲ | danaris 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | You have fallen victim to the Two Guys Fallacy. In general, if you are observing a community, and you see what looks like a contradiction like this, almost every time what you're actually seeing is Two Guys: in this case, one portion of the HN userbase that hates datacenters, and another portion that has to change their underwear every time Anthropic puts out new release notes. Very few communities like HN are genuinely monolithic, and very few people are going to hold such contradictory beliefs within the same individual. | | |
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| ▲ | mikestew 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Complains about pollution, but still breathes the air, eh? What is your suggestion, a strongly-worded letter to the editor of your local newspaper? Arming the dumbest among us... Conveniently leaving yourself out of that group, I'm sure. | |
| ▲ | shimman 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | There are differences in types of data centers and hyper scale data centers are extremely different than what you're imagining. | | |
| ▲ | naturalmovement 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | I'm sure the protesters are well-versed on the technical differences. Not that it matters. A building is a building and has to meet local zoning regulations. Your elected representatives are approving them left and right and issuing variances. We need more locally-sourced, sustainable datacenters? |
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| ▲ | infamouscow 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Pointing out hypocrisy is a losing strategy in politics. I implore you to continue with this strategy. | |
| ▲ | Spooky23 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | And yet here you are, chilling with the dumbs. |
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