There's a 94% chance the EO is struck down on polymarket.

catapart 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It's disturbing that the statistic you cite does give me hope (if true). But if I had an account, I'd still put $50 against it. I'm cynical enough to at least entertain the possibility that these corrupt dickheads have let the market get that lopsided as a way to cash in on top of their odious ruling (by way of bribes after they make other people richer).

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awkwardpotato 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

And what are the odds in Vegas? How is the opinion of a bunch of gamblers on polymarket relevant?

	▲	Cider9986 2 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		People are maximally incentivized to be right because of the monetary risk and reward. A 94% odds indicates an extremely high likelihood that something is going to happen. It's relevant because it's a different, additional perspective than whatever a news article says. It's a 2500℅ ROI if it's not struck down, so I would encourage you to bet if you think the outcome will be no.
	▲	projektfu 4 hours ago \| parent \| prev \| next [-]
		Presumably the justices (or their clerks) have told their friends how they're going to rule, and their friends have told their friends, and that's made the market. Or that's supposed to be the value prop of Polymarket. There's precedent. Roberts was so angry that someone leaked the Dobbs decision that he spearheaded the investigation that found that nobody would admit to leaking and there's nothing they can do.
	▲	jbird99 5 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		Because Polymarket is full of corrupt folks with insider information. Trump Jr. Is a senior advisor to Polymarket. Iran admitted they would observe Polymarket bets during the height of the war to see when they were next likely to get bombed.