| ▲ | chollida1 9 hours ago |
| Makes alot of sense. Canada has: - one of the largest uranium reserves - a well respected and safe nuclear design in CANDU - experience with building and refurbishing nuclear reactors(Darlington) and for Ontario itself A need for more baseload to work with the large amount of solar and wind that Ontario has added in the last 10 years. Saskatchewan also now has a potential need for nuclear for industrial use now that wasn't present before from its existing population. if the government can clear the red tape by using a well tested reactor design then they could certainly get some of these reactors built in that time frame. 15 seems...ambitions, but if we're going to spend at a federal level this is probably one of the better things to invest in. |
|
| ▲ | mixdup 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| >15 seems...ambitions, but if we're going to spend at a federal level this is probably one of the better things to invest in. If they can make them cookie cutter as much as possible and not unique snowflakes like has been the pattern at least in the US, they can probably do it both on the timeline and a somewhat reasonable cost basis If they build 15 individual projects instead of managing this as a single big project, yeah that is very ambitious |
| |
| ▲ | OJFord 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | > If they build 15 individual projects instead of managing this as a single big project, yeah that is very ambitious Surely it would increase variance of outcomes, but the expectation is the same of each and overall? Agree it would be mad though. Seems already a bit mad not to standardise internationally on a rough blueprint, or the modular thing in the news occasionally, and just churn out basically the same thing everywhere as needed. | | |
| ▲ | mixdup 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yeah I mean obviously each one would be managed on its own to an extent but one big problem we have in the US at least is that we build so few reactors that each one is bespoke. They may be based generally on certain designs but they will vary enough that operators and maintenance engineers have to train and be certified on each one, and that training and certification does not carry over to any other facility. Parts are bespoke and can't be used from one to another If Canada builds them all similar enough that you only need one simulation/training facility, parts can be used between all of them, engineers can move from one to the other, and otherwise they are as close to each other as possible they will get incredible economies of scale that we don't typically get in North America in this industry | | |
| ▲ | novok 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Could be a good way to kickstart a canadian nuclear industry that would expand into the US, exploiting the a big thing the US is bad at, coordinating infrastructure projects with multiple government groups, not making infrastructure builds incredibly overpriced and take an incredible amount of time and not being hyper litigious. |
|
|
|
|
| ▲ | PaulHoule 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| They don’t seem to have any plans to build more CANDU, in so many ways the world has moved on for instance those centrifuges have made uranium enrichment more economical for most countries except (seemingly) the US and Iran. What is exciting to me is that these just installed the first module of the BWRX 300 at Darlington. I was so afraid that BWRX was going to be another SMR that gets talked about for decades but it looks like they are really doing it. See https://www.autonocion.com/us/canada-tonne-grid-nuclear-reac... ! |
| |
|
| ▲ | rickydroll 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > Ontario itself A need for more baseload to work with the large amount of solar and wind that Ontario has added in the last 10 years. Chasing baseload is a fool's game. You will always have a mismatch between power needed and power produced. Power storage is necessary to move excess power produced to times of excess power need. e.g., shave the peaks to fill the valleys. Any storage reduces the need for baseload and peaker plants. 4-6 hrs move daytime excess solar to fill evening needs. Overnight baseload excess can refill the batteries to cover the morning excess need before solar fully kicks in. Expanding battery capacity to 8-12 hours further reduces the need for expensive power sources such as nuclear and gas. |
| |
| ▲ | red75prime an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | The massive solar overcapacity that is required to deal with seasonal variation and the massive energy storage make this endeavor much more costly than nuclear. For example, in Denmark[1] a solar-dominated grid would cost around 565 EUR/MWh. A nuclear-dominated grid would cost around 141 EUR/MWh. [1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054422... Fig. 3 | | |
| ▲ | magicalist 17 minutes ago | parent [-] | | > For example, in Denmark[1] a solar-dominated grid would cost around 565 EUR/MWh. A nuclear-dominated grid would cost around 141 EUR/MWh. That's not what it says. It says that would be the cost assuming the current grid and power came from only solar or only nuclear. The majority of the cost then is for overprovisioning and storage, especially to handle the lack of sun in the winter. The actual low cost power comes from mixes of renewables, that they note nuclear can't compete with (especially in their hypothetical future energy system with things like scheduled EV charging). They give an example of offshore wind (66%), solar (8%), CCGT (26%) (primarily natural gas) for 66 EUR/MWh, or, restricting to biomass for the gas plant: offshore wind (84%), solar (13%), CCGT (3%) at 99 EUR/MWh. (it's also worth noting that this is for Denmark. Something like 98% of Canadians live south of Denmark's southernmost line of latitude). |
| |
| ▲ | chongli 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | We're talking about Ontario. I live in Ontario. The sky is overcast 8 months of the year. We're not building enough storage to charge for 4 months and drain for 8. | | |
| ▲ | theptip an hour ago | parent [-] | | You have wind right? | | |
| ▲ | chongli 26 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Overcast winter days tend to be very calm as well. These are periods of minimal solar+wind generation and maximal heating demand. Having a grid with no baseload generation and only storage is going to spell disaster during extended cold+calm periods. Rolling blackouts when it’s -30C outside… |
|
| |
| ▲ | phil21 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Your power storage is the Uranium fuel, which is a better battery than batteries. Much denser and lasts longer. In a sanely designed grid you overprovision non-reliable renewables like solar and wind to provide your peak daytime usage and nuclear (or hydro if you are lucky enough) takes up the rest during the night and when wind is not blowing. Batteries to further flatten the duck curve and provide grid firming as required. Then you have fallback to nuclear and load shedding programs for rare seasonal issues solving that last 1-3% that is incredibly expensive with non-dispatchable power sources. No need to build natural gas plants that sit idle 95% of the time. You overbuild solar since it's basically free from a capex standpoint and use that to charge your batteries when the sun shines. This lets you maximize capital investment over your entire generating fleet while still providing relatively cheap and - most importantly - reliable power for industrial usage. Of course, the choice society has made to make nuclear exceedingly expensive might make it pencil out that it's cheaper to subsidize natural gas. But I think that's naive and foolish for the long run. Nuclear waste would be the other large remaining issue, but again - society chose to create that problem and not solve it. It's not technical in nature. Batteries have no reasonable path forward for seasonal storage in many locations in the world. Nuclear does. Solving overnight storage is simply not interesting, as it's the easy problem to solve. tldr; Build it all. Nuclear, solar, wind, batteries, and hell - even natural gas as a last resort. | | |
| ▲ | dalyons 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Your proposal is to use nuclear as only backup? Or for only late nights (after batteries have discharged)? That dooms nukes economically, they need to run and sell power at close to 100% 24/7 to have any chance paying back the capex & opex. What you’re saying makes sense but only for a planned state economy where the government owns (or subsidizes) all generation. It’s not possible in a free market economy, the nukes would go bankrupt/ never be built | |
| ▲ | awesome_dude 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > Nuclear waste would be the other large remaining issue, but again - society chose to create that problem and not solve it. It's not technical in nature. Care to explain, I've never seen a genuine solution that goes beyond hand waving, bad faith arguing, and aggressiveness. | | |
| ▲ | zdragnar 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | For one thing, nuclear power plants produce much less waste than most people imagine. Waste can also be reprocessed into new fuel, further reducing it. In the US, we have a suitable site that has been authorized and cancelled for 20 some years now: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yucca_Mountain_nuclear_waste_r... The reasons it keeps being cancelled, and the waste is stored on-site at nuclear plants instead, is purely political and nothing to do with the technological or safety aspects, according to the GAO. | | |
| ▲ | amanaplanacanal 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Most waste isn't spent fuel, it's contaminated other things. You aren't reprocessing any of that. | | |
| ▲ | j16sdiz 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | I thought contaminated clothing are low level waste. They are quite safe after 30-ish years, but rated to store for 100 years |
| |
| ▲ | qlte 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Political constraints are extremely important in the real world if the goal is to actually get things done. Yucca Mountain isn't actually a viable solution because, despite the technical arguments in favor, it lacks the support to implement. Similar problem if local communities fight new nuclear plants tooth and nail, dragging out the timelines/increasing costs. Having the "correct" argument based on objective facts doesn't really matter if people/elected officials who have veto or dilatory powers aren't buying it. | | |
| ▲ | fc417fc802 19 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Thankfully a handful of countries have managed to approve and begun building out permanent geologic disposal sites at this point so as long as at least one of them is willing to sell disposal services the problem is now globally solved. At least provided a given country has the political will to pay to export their waste but that seems like a much lower barrier to overcome. |
| |
| ▲ | awesome_dude 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I've never understood how people think "less" solves the issue, it's not negligible and asking to increase the number of plants surely increases the waste. Reprocessing, isn't infinite. There's going to be waste to deal with. You've not presented any technical solutions, instead you made it political by claiming that's the only problem. Do you have an actual understanding of the problems or are you just pushing nuclear because it's aligning with you politically Edit: it's clear from the down votes i am getting that this is political, not technical. If you're down voting with no technical understanding you're political. | | |
| ▲ | fc417fc802 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I think it is you who hasn't bothered to do basic research before forming an opinion. I suggest at least skimming the wikipedia page on radioactive waste. [0] There's also a page documenting the various national management plans. [1] > I've never understood how people think "less" solves the issue, it's not negligible ... It just needs to be little enough that the cost of constructing long term storage space isn't cost prohibitive. The amount produced is something like 25 to 30 tons per GW per year before reprocessing; after reprocessing it's something like ~5% of that. Unfortunately I couldn't readily find numbers for the dilution rate when vitrifying the waste for geological disposal. Regardless, that amount is almost nothing when considered in terms of volume. A full size shipping container is somewhere between 75 and 108 cubic meters depending on which standard you prefer. To give a rough idea that equates to ~180 (US) tons of borosilicate glass (one of the materials commonly used to vitrify high level waste) on the low end (assuming I got the math right). There are also alternative disposal methods to consider such as breeder reactors (rather expensive at present) or horizontal drillholes. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radioactive_waste [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-level_radioactive_waste_m... | | |
| ▲ | awesome_dude 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | You're repeating the problem - You're saying that there is less waste to deal with which magically means it's safe. You do understand that don't you? | | |
| ▲ | fc417fc802 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | You appear to be reiterating an irrational position. I provided links to overviews of the topic; I strongly suggest at least skimming them. The quantity of unavoidable high level waste would appear to be sufficiently small that geological disposal is a cost effective solution. The high level waste in question is not magically safe. Rather the various reprocessing and disposal methods have been extensively engineered and deliberated. At this point there is no cause to believe deep geological disposal in crystalline bedrock to be unsafe. | | |
| ▲ | awesome_dude an hour ago | parent [-] | | I said from the start that the argument you presented was fallacious, and all you did was present it, now, because you have no other argument, you're working on aggressive attacks. You're on your own now. Bye. | | |
| ▲ | fc417fc802 29 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Do please explain how it's fallacious? I've made the claims that one, there is a sufficiently low volume of waste produced per unit of generation that geologic disposal is affordable and scalable and that two, said geological disposal is in fact safe. Where's the fallacy? It appears to me that you are attached to a position that you aren't capable of defending. |
|
|
|
| |
| ▲ | zdragnar 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I actually did produce a technical solution: stick it deep in yucca mountain and forget about it. It's safe, and there's more than enough room for the little waste that can't be turned back into fuel. | | |
| ▲ | awesome_dude 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | It's not. The time frame we are talking about invalidates the "safety" because the earth's crust moves and warps, which allows water to access that sort of storage | | |
| ▲ | zdragnar 42 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | The Earth's crust will take far longer to move yucca than the nuclear waste will be a problem. That's the whole reason that site was chosen. Even Yellowstone isn't set to blow on that time scale. | |
| ▲ | protocolture 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Why dont you suggest what "safe" looks like, and we can discuss your understanding of safety. Its clear to me that the issue is your standards and not actual waste disposal. | | |
| ▲ | awesome_dude an hour ago | parent [-] | | My understanding is that this material remains toxic to life for thousands, to tens of thousands of years. Safe means that it's stored such that there's no harm to the environment for that lifetime. In all "bury it" scenarios, the place where the waste is buried will be subject to change resulting in water, air, able to interact with that waste when normal tectonic and erosion processes do their thing. | | |
| ▲ | anonymous_user9 30 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Tectonic and erosion processes take place over millions of years, so they aren't an issue for waste that's only dangerous for tens of thousands of years. |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
| ▲ | NuclearPM 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Nuclear waste isn’t an issue. |
|
|
|
|
| ▲ | jtbayly 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| More renewables means the need for more base load? This is the first I’ve seen anybody say that. |
| |
| ▲ | an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | [deleted] | |
| ▲ | jleyank 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Crypto, AI and EV. Heating/Cooling. Raw material processing. There's going to be a need for every KW that's available. Hell, there's probably going to be a copper shortage the way things are going. | |
| ▲ | mynegation 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Probably the assumption is that renewables replace a different base load like coal or gas powered plants. | |
| ▲ | pfdietz 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Yeah, it's utter crap. | |
| ▲ | 486sx33 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | [dead] |
|
|
| ▲ | tgtweak 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Nuclear also works well with grid batteries to smooth demand curves, which Ontario is targeting 2700MW of scale by 2030. |
|
| ▲ | nancyminusone 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Always amused me that on the face of things, a CANDU looks just like a sideways RBMK. At least in terms of plumbing. There's clearly more to it than that. |
| |
|
| ▲ | genxy 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Always wanted to go to ... Uranium City. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_City |
| |
| ▲ | morkalork 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | While you're at it, add Radium Springs and Asbestos to your itinerary! | | |
| ▲ | gnabgib 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Radium Hot Springs (BC), you mean? +Dildo (NF) +Dawson Creek (BC) +Regina (SK) +Snafu (YK) +Stoner (BC) +Climax (SK) +Radville (SK) +Emo (ON) +Crotch Lake (ON) +Sober Island (NS) | | |
| ▲ | abejfehr an hour ago | parent [-] | | Elbow, Eyebrow, Heart’s Content, Heart’s Desire, and Heart’s Delight | | |
| |
| ▲ | 1over137 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Asbestos was renamed due to the negative connotations. |
|
|
|
| ▲ | cwillu 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| 15 years, to be clear. |
|
| ▲ | kasey_junk 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Will Alberta go along? |
| |
| ▲ | jleyank 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | Will Alberta go (away)? If/when the price of crude goes back down, they'll feel the cash crunch. Curiously, if they leave Canada, they need a path through a foreign country to get their oil out of Alberta. | | |
| ▲ | TMWNN 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Alberta needs a pathway through a foreign country to get their oil out right now. Existing pipelines lead to the US, and the Keystone XL expansion Obama halted, Trump resumed, and Biden halted. An independent Alberta will likely join the US, and of course building a domestic-only pipeline is easier than doing so across national borders. | | |
| ▲ | jleyank 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Alberta ships through BC now and I think they’ve gone from half to full capacity. That profit might not survive Hormuz opening and unfortunately much of it leaves Canada. | | |
|
|
|
|
| ▲ | 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| [deleted] |
|
| ▲ | jmyeet 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I don't understand the online obsession with nuclear power in spite of all the evidence that it's simply not economical. Canada needs new power now. Not 15-20 years from now, which is how long it takes to build a new nuclear power plant. And it can be done today, incrementally with renewable sources and before anyone screams "baseload", that's what batteries are for if it really comes down to it. Nuclear power is the highest cost source of electricity in LCOE terms [1]. We just need to look at Hinkly Point C ("HPC") in the UK. HPC was proposed in 2010, approved in 2016, began construction in 2018 and is scheduled to completion currently somewhere between 2029 and 2031 for the first reactor with the second following 1-3 years after (IIRC). From an initial cost estimate of 15 billion pounds in 2015, it's ballooned to 31-35 billion and may well exceed 50 billion [2][3]. The contracted price per MWh is linked to inflation and currently pushing 140 pounds, about 50% more expensive than offshore wind that could be built in a fraction of the time. So there is a 35 year contract period for power but HPC has a lifespan of 60 years. What happens after? Market rates. Many will argue it'll get cheaper as the plant is paid off. If that's the case, why hasn't electricity from nuclear sources gotten cheaper as the existing plants have aged? The answer is the same with any nuclear criticism: "this time it'll be different". Fukushima? "This time it will be different." Chernobyl? "This time it will be different." Spiralling costs? "This time it will be different." Massively delayed completion dates? "This time it will be different." And we haven't even touched the negative externalities yet. That is, the uranium fuel cycle. Processing uranium ore produces waste. Using fuel rods produces waste. We don't really have a good solution for dealing with that waste. There's a lot of hand-waving about "just store it underground and centuries from now we'll hope they've figured it out". Storage, particularly for the first decade or more is not as easy as the hand-waving makes it out to be. It requires cooling ponds because the waste still produces significant heat. So you need infrastructure from that. UF6/UF4 from procesing aren't a solved problem either. I will never understand why so many otherwise smart people keep trying to make nuclear happen in their minds. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levelized_cost_of_electricity [2]: https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/edf-announces-hi... [3]: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/02/20/hinkley-poin... |
| |
| ▲ | exmadscientist 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > I will never understand why so many otherwise smart people keep trying to make nuclear happen in their minds. I don't really get this either. I've come to think that it comes down to two pieces. The easy piece is that some people don't seem to realize just how good renewable power sources have gotten in the last 10-20 years. Nuclear has simply been outcompeted in so many ways. But this happened pretty quickly, so not everyone has gotten the message. The other one is more subtle. For decades there were a lot of bad attacks on nuclear as a technology. (And a few good criticisms, but for some reason those never seem to get the attention, even though they should -- they're pretty strong arguments!) There's a certain type of person who loves to debunk these bad arguments, and there's plenty of that type of person around here. And that can get you emotionally invested into the thing you've been defending (perhaps rightfully: they were crappy arguments against it), and might keep you promoting it after its natural time has passed. (To be clear: I don't think nuclear plants are worthless, and I think keeping the ones we've got operating smoothly as base load stations is probably an excellent idea. But I don't think it makes a whole lot of sense to be building more of them these days.) | | |
| ▲ | stubish 3 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | It is a political choice. Pro-nuclear propaganda in Australia is all about the long time frames, and the fossil fuels needed until they start coming online. Climate targets get to be pushed back, scrapping 2030 targets in favor of 2050 targets. It keeps coal, gas and oil money flowing for another generation. And the problem of actually building and paying for the nuclear power plants is also next generations problem, as they are expected to all be over cost and delayed, and not a priority once all the new gas plants are online. Everybody knows all this, but nuclear still gets traction because when you put lipstick on it and take all the most optimistic estimates from the salesmen, it looks like a pro-environmental policy. One that the right and far right can get behind, because it is not what the greens are saying needs to happen and anything those communists want must be bad. I don't know if it is similar in Canada. Solar is less viable, relying more on wind. And they have more experience building and running nuclear power plants. | |
| ▲ | raron an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Probably it depends on what part of the world you are and on what is your goal, what you want to optimize for. In many countries there are usual systematic weather events where all renewable production goes to basically nothing for few days or even 2 weeks. You can not solve that by improving renewable sources, there isn't enough raw energy they could capture. Storage for that long is currently impossible and even if it would be, it would be prohibitively expensive. So what you can do, build gas or coal plants. Building those, having people on call all the time, and the opportunity cost is probably many times more expensive than the building cost of renewables themselves. And you still need to buy and store fossil fuels, you are still dependent on geopolitical issues, and you still produce a lot of CO2. If your goal is environment protection or reducing climate change, then nuclear is probably better. If your goal is to reduce energy cost then probably renewables + short term battery storage + gas backup is the winner if you use an appropriate electricity pricing model. Nuclear seems to be the old, known, stable thing, while renewables are the new and shiny thing that solves everything cheaply (and that sounds like it has huge catch). When you are building such critical infrastructure as the electrical grid, then staying safe and choosing the known, but expensive solution might seems to be the right choice for many people. | |
| ▲ | consensus1 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I see that France has the most nuclear heavy grid and also some of the cheapest energy costs and lowest CO2 emission per unit energy in the world. When I see that matched by a solar / wind focused grid I will believe the cheap renewables hype. And even when I see that, the low energy density still has its own problems. The amount of resources needed for the panels and batteries is massive in itself. And the land area requirements are going to turn vast swathes of wild land into something like this: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DSUY5dhiVF6/ | | |
| ▲ | nickserv 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | France has higher prices than several EU countries. Spain in particular has low prices thanks to their solar and wind, and the Nordics thanks to hydro. | | |
| ▲ | pfdietz 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | And the French cannot seem to replicate the putatively low price they paid for their first nuclear rollout. |
|
|
| |
| ▲ | xp84 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | All forms of generation have downsides. > Canada needs new power now. Not 15-20 years from now, Building nuclear doesn't stop you from building whatever else you want. Though I assume that Canada being Canada, it'll take 15 years just to complete the requisite negotiations with every indigenous tribe and to arrive at a settlement with whatever environmental and assorted NIMBY groups are already warming up their lawsuit-filing laptops right now. Also, you're predictably citing a couple of bad nuclear accidents, over like 70 years of nuclear generation. Both are actually pretty well understood. If we applied that risk management logic to forms of transport, you wouldn't even be allowed to walk anywhere. | | |
| ▲ | garbagewoman 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | You think they shouldn’t negotiate with native tribes? | | |
| ▲ | llbbdd 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | If they're not building reactors on the land allocated to native tribes, why should they? | | |
| ▲ | Tiktaalik 13 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | First Nations have treaties with Canada with constitutionally protected land use rights that have implications beyond tiny reserves. Rights to hunt and fish can be implicated by heavy industrial land use which compels a duty to consult. Doesn't mean that First Nations can veto a project, but also doesn't mean that all this can be ignored. All of this is more complex in British Columbia where in many places treaties were never signed and so the land is unceded and under unresolved land claim. | |
| ▲ | rhines 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | That's the thing, they will be on unceded land. As I understand it Canadian settlers signed treaties which allowed indigenous people to retain rights to the land. Canada then violated those treaties and built on land they didn't own. Today Canada is trying to respect the original treaties while also appreciating that they can't undo what's already been done. |
|
| |
| ▲ | pydry 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | >Building nuclear doesn't stop you from building whatever else you want. It kind of does though, since it demands pretty lavish subsidies to be built at all and those subsidies would give WAY more bang for the buck if used on pumped storage, batteries, solar and wind. You also have to cap liability in case of nuclear disaster. Private insurers won't touch nuclear power with a barge pole unless taxpayers are forced to pay for disaster cleanup. As a taxpayer Id rather not have that liability. | | | |
| ▲ | jmyeet 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > Building nuclear doesn't stop you from building whatever else you want. If you build the solar and wind you don't need the nuclear. That's the point. > Also, you're predictably citing a couple of bad nuclear accidents, over like 70 years of nuclear generation. Here we go with hand-waving away all the uncomfortable counterexamples. It's hard to get exact numbers because of plant decmossioning and that some nuclear reactors don't produce electricity (eg they are breeder reactors for plutonium or isotopes for medicine) but an estimate of somewhere between 400 and 440 worldwide seems reasonable. I've also read that fewer than 700 nuclear reactors have ever been built. Not a single one without significant subsidies I might add. Of those 440 (for argument's sake), we've had 3 serious accidents: 1. Chernobyl. The absolute exclusion zone for Chernobyl remains at 1000 square miles ~40 years after the accident with no end in sight. The estimates of the accumulated cleanup costs seem to be at least $700 billion [1]; 2. Fukushima. It'll likely take more than a century to clean this up and the cost may well exceed $1 trillion [2]; 3. Three Mile Island. Far less significant than the other two but still involved a core meltdown. Do you have any idea how much renewable power generation $700B and $1T could've bought instead? But it gets worse. The US nuclear energy doesn't pay insurance representing the true potential cost of a nuclear disaster. The Price-Anderson Act limits liability to (in 2026) $500 million in primary insurance, $15 billion in secondary insurance from an industry-wide fund paid in by operators and there's also another limit I forget on incidents that cover more than one reactor [3]. So how do you get from $15B to $700B or $1T? Why the government of course, which means the taxpayers. [1]: https://globalhealth.usc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2016... [2]: https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/16/fukushimas-final-costs-... [3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price%E2%80%93Anderson_Nuclear... | | |
| ▲ | orthecreedence 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | > If you build the solar and wind you don't need the nuclear. Don't forget the enormous battery arrays for winter, cloudy skies, or wildfire smoke. Hope you have enough batteries. But you won't, so ok, now you need gas reactors to fill in the blanks. Isn't that what we're trying to get away from? | | |
| ▲ | pfdietz 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | Ah yes, the ridiculous strawman engineering of saying batteries would be used for seasonal storage. |
|
| |
| ▲ | pfisch 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Chernobyl was almost the largest disaster in all of history. I'm not saying nuclear reactors are unsafe now, but the reality is that a true disaster at a nuclear power plant literally means the end of huge amounts of land, enough to end entire countries or large parts of continents. You can't say things like that about walking or other types of transport... | | |
| ▲ | 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | [deleted] | |
| ▲ | AngryData 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | To be fair Chernobyl was designed what, 15 years after the invention of nuclear technology? Even discounting all the politicial and management control problems, the engineering and scientific knowledge of nuclear reactor design was still in its infancy. Imagine if we judged the safety of automobiles on pre-Model-T cars. Or steam boilers and engines on the first 20 yearrs of their invention. | | |
| ▲ | crote an hour ago | parent [-] | | What's the worst accident involving a Model T, maybe a dozen dead? Early steam boilers aren't going to be much worse either. Nuclear accidents are essentially unlimited in size. Nothing else can do that kind of country-sized - let alone it being permanent. Chernobyl showed the potential impact. Fukushima showed that even several decades down the line things can still rapidly run out of control. All the knowledge and experience in the world isn't going to save you when something unexpected happens and things are just waiting to spiral out of control. |
| |
| ▲ | triceratops 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > Chernobyl was almost the largest disaster in all of history Not at all hyperbole when you consider how badly it poisoned the well for future nuclear projects. | |
| ▲ | foobarian 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Isn't that a little hyperbolic? Sure cancer rates will be elevated wherever the fallout blows but it's not going to end anything. | | |
| ▲ | danielheath 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | In terms of severity, Chernobyl was a long way from the worst case. If the core had melted down to a body of water, the steam flash could have vaporized it & ejected it high into the atmosphere. That's city-ending, if not quite "continent rendered uninhabitable". |
| |
| ▲ | stackghost 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Chernobyl's reactors were fundamentally unsafe designs from an engineering perspective, to say nothing of the perverse incentives at play because of the Soviet political system. We've learned a lot since the RBMK was designed in the 1960s. | | |
| ▲ | markvdb 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | Not convinced. The problem is with the human layer of managing large complicated projects. Nuclear could become less unsafe once humanity has found ways not to go commity horrble violence every other generation. | | |
| ▲ | DennisP 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | The problem with Chernobyl was that (1) it didn't have a containment dome, and (2) it was designed so as the temperature increased, the reaction sped up. It was fundamentally unstable. Neither of these problems is true of more recent reactors. We don't make bridges safe by getting humans to cooperate better and cross bridges one car at a time. We make them strong and stable so humans can drive however they like and the bridge is fine. That's how all engineering works, and it applies to nuclear reactors just like anything else. | |
| ▲ | stackghost 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | >Not convinced. What, if anything, would convince you? | |
| ▲ | vkou 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > The problem is with the human layer of managing large complicated projects. I guess we should stop having large, complicated projects. Potable water mains, road and rail networks, the power grid, the internet, bridges, medicine, etc, are all too complicated for humans to manage. I mean, nuclear is only the safest form of energy generation that humanity has ever produced, but you're absolutely right. | | |
| ▲ | crote an hour ago | parent [-] | | What's the absolute worst that could happen when a water mains breaks? What's the absolute worst that could happen when a train derails? What's the absolute worst that could happen when a backhoe snacks on a fiber trunk? Now, what's the absolute worst that could happen when a nuclear reactor spirals out of control? | | |
| ▲ | dosisking an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | Hypothetically, a train could derail, the train was carrying nuclear waste, the derailment occurred in a highly populated area, near a Virology Lab. The lab was damaged, which released a deadly form of Smallpox, which spread to every corner of the Earth, killing every single human. That would be pretty bad, but not sure if it would be the absolute worst. | |
| ▲ | vkou an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | > What's the absolute worst that could happen when a water mains breaks? People drink contaminated, unpotable water and die. > What's the absolute worst that could happen when a train derails? People die. > What's the absolute worst that could happen when a backhoe snacks on a fiber trunk? Life-critical infrastructure that depends on the communication fails in a bad way and people die. > Now, what's the absolute worst that could happen when a nuclear reactor spirals out of control? People die. Nothing in life is without risk. Nuclear reactors spiraling out of control have killed fewer people per KWH generated than any other source of energy that human beings have come up with. |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
| ▲ | roenxi 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > Nuclear power is the highest cost source of electricity in LCOE terms [1]. The graph actually suggests something different - you can see how coal (a mature and well -understood technology) has basically flat-lining costs that increase very slowly over time as we mine out the easy fuel. That is pretty much what we'd expect for a mature technology. Gas, Solar and Wind have rapidly decreasing cost curves following some sort of asymptotic pattern which is what we'd expect for new and exciting technologies. Nuclear has the most bizzare cost curve of any new technology where every year it costs more than the year before; a pattern which makes effectively no sense and is really only explainable by the heavy and effective political attack that nuclear has been under in the US and EU. On a technical basis it is probably going to be cheaper than coal and if allowed to innovate likely much cheaper than solar and wind (the too-cheap-to-meter line is plausible, we've seen that sort of market in networking). > The answer is the same with any nuclear criticism: "this time it'll be different". Fukushima? "This time it will be different." Chernobyl? "This time it will be different." Spiralling costs? "This time it will be different." Massively delayed completion dates? "This time it will be different." That sounds like an extremely reasonable answer? It was different after Chernobyl and Fukushima. We've never seen a plant melt down that was designed & built around the 1970s. And again, project budgeting is mostly about politics not the technology involved. If costs are consistently X the technical estimate, planners will add in a factor of X unless there is a political reason not to. > We don't really have a good solution for dealing with that waste. Seems to be a solved problem? We've been doing this for 50 years now and despite their best efforts the anti-nuclear crowd haven't managed to come up with a concrete example of what the problem is that isn't easily ignored. Society produces a lot of toxic waste already and it really isn't that big of an issue. I did the calcs once a long time ago for a HN post and we're often talking about a few shipping containers worth of material in these conversations; ie nothing. We haven't figured out how to deal with the toxic byproducts of solar panels either and that is largely a non-issue. Plan A is to dump the waste somewhere and Plan B is to go with a better option if one turns up. Problem solved. | | |
| ▲ | danhor 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > Nuclear has the most bizzare cost curve of any new technology where every year it costs more than the year before; a pattern which makes effectively no sense and is really only explainable by the heavy and effective political attack that nuclear has been under in the US and EU. Or by generally exploding costs of megaprojects. Look at e.g. high-speed-rail in UK, France, Germany, ... . The first projects were the cheapest, after that it only got more and more expensive. | |
| ▲ | pfdietz 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > Nuclear has the most bizzare cost curve of any new technology where every year it costs more than the year before; a pattern which makes effectively no sense and is really only explainable by the heavy and effective political attack Or by the technology being heavily subsidized and its flaws papered over until they became expensively unignorable. But no, it must be the extremely selective omnipotence of the greens that did it. /s |
| |
| ▲ | rich_sasha 31 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | It cuts both ways. Solar and wind are great but intermittent, and the storage issue seems to be treated as a solvable ergo solved problem. Add a sprinkle of "overcapacity", gas peakers and demand shaping and we can have a fully green grid. So why didn't this happen anywhere - except perhaps two of the sunniest and windiest places in the world, Australia and California, where energy demand (AC) also matches production? Where are the seasonal battery storage facilities that places like Europe or I guess most of NA would need? My only conclusion is that renewables are also far more expensive than the sticker price, due to the needed grid investment, batteries and frankly unsolved problems of seasonal storage. I don't mind being wrong, but status quo seems to be, let's not build nuclear because it's too expensive, we're sort of building renewables, but CO2 emmissions, never mind levels, keep on increasing. It doesn't seem to add up to a coherent story. | |
| ▲ | thedrbrian an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | >LCOE Is bunk. You should be using LFSCOE instead. https://davidturver.substack.com/p/lcoe-levelised-cost-of-en... | |
| ▲ | 1over137 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | >Canada needs new power now. Not 15-20 years from now. Those can both be true. Canada will likely need more power in 15 years too. It's called long term planning. | |
| ▲ | jleyank 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | What if it becomes urgent to reduce CO2? There's a lot of places without hydro or geothermal power, and if you needs gobs of power for, say, making aluminum you need as much as you can get power wise. | | |
| ▲ | crote an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | It if "becomes urgent" (it already is), spending a decade and a half building a reactor won't exactly be helpful, will it? | |
| ▲ | 1over137 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | >What if it becomes urgent to reduce CO2? What?! It has been urgent for years. |
| |
| ▲ | kvakerok 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | We can't generate power out of thin air and the coal/natural gas powerplants got shut down what do you propose? | |
| ▲ | fooster 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Another other things nuclear power plants don't take 15-20 to build in sensible economies. You also cannot use wind & solar + batteries to replace nuclear power. | | |
| ▲ | gottorf 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Pre-Fukushima, the Koreans were able to pop out a gigawatt every 5 years or so. Things dramatically slowed down afterwards, so even they are not immune to whatever it is that makes constructing nuclear powerplants slow as all hell around the world. The Barakah plant in the UAE, built by the Koreans, took 9 years. | |
| ▲ | PaulHoule 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I wouldn’t say you cannot but I also wouldn’t say it is proven that you can. | | |
| ▲ | femto 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | My prediction is that in the not to distant future solar/wind + storage will be able to replace nuclear in most areas on Earth. The growth of solar has historically been underestimated [1], and it will continue to be underestimated. Even if nuclear gets cheaper, solar will get cheaper faster. The development of storage has a long way to go. Outside batteries, there are other options, such as pumped storage. Even then, battery prices might go down enough to make other forms of storage uneconomic. I also predict that a revolution is yet to happen in the transport of energy. For those areas that can't be self-sufficient in solar/wind, it may turn out to be cheaper to capture renewable energy elsewhere then transport it to where it needs to be used (we already do that with fossil fuels). [1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136403212... | |
| ▲ | fooster 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Cannot with our current level of technology. You are not going to provide the required level of power in Canada during the winter with wind or solar with todays battery technology. I asked Claude: "If combined wind+solar output drops to ~10% of nameplate during one of these (a standard threshold), a ~77 GW fleet sized to meet average winter demand produces ~7.7 GW against a ~22 GW cold-snap peak — a 14 GW shortfall that storage alone has to cover. That works out to roughly 340 GWh for a 1-day lull, ~1 TWh for 3 days, ~1.7 TWh for 5 days, ~2.4 TWh for a week, and ~3.4 TWh for 10 days. Ontario's entire current and under-construction battery fleet sits in the single-digit GWh range, so even a mild 3-day lull needs ~100-200x what's actually being built, and a serious week-plus event needs 400-600x — which is why lithium-ion batteries work fine for hourly duration but make no economic sense at the multi-day scale these lulls demand." | | |
| ▲ | PaulHoule 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | One of my pet peeves is that people keep quoting numbers about solar costs oblivious to location, time of year, etc. No wonder some people are sticking their fingers in their ears and saying "neener neener neener". Battery storage for diurnal variation in favorable locations looks feasible, battery storage for annual variation looks absurd. Maybe you can overbuild solar by a 3x factor in some places, I've gotten cost numbers from 'a little less than what an AP1000 is claimed to cost' to 2x more with back of the envelope calculations that probably aren't worth anything. Then there's Dunkelflaute. It would help if you could find a good use for the excess energy but the capital cost of anything you don't use all the time is multiplied. |
|
|
| |
| ▲ | loloquwowndueo 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | You’re missing the point which is to create jobs, it’s what the Canadian government is pushing really hard for now, with all the infrastructure projects it’s launching. Something that will need people working on building for 15 years sounds about right for what government is doing now. | | |
| ▲ | gottorf 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | > You’re missing the point which is to create jobs I sure hope that the ultimate point of a government push to build nuclear powerplants is in fact getting nuclear powerplants on the other side, not just jobs along the way. The latter seems responsible for so many ills in today's Western societies. |
| |
| ▲ | reaperducer 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Canada needs new power now. Not 15-20 years from now Canada won't need new power 15 years from now? Did a time traveler tell you about a coming Dark Age? | | |
| ▲ | amanaplanacanal 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | I think the assumption is that anything that you can build now, you can build more of later. Unless you think there is some reason you can't? |
| |
| ▲ | Shitty-kitty 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | China, Canada, Sweden and others, are not stupid. We really don't understand how it is that all the experts say that Nuclear needs to be parts of the equation but all of you "online activist" keep insisting that, they are just idiots and industry shills. It is the same playbook the anti-vaxers use. | | |
| ▲ | gs17 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | The same China that started construction on at least 10 reactors last year? |
|
|
|
| ▲ | crypttales 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| [dead] |