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smy20011 5 hours ago

It will pay for itself if you spend >300$ per month. I personally wish Waymo have a 399$ per month subscription that give 2 free ride per day so I don't need to own a car just for work.

csa 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> I personally wish Waymo have a 399$ per month subscription that give 2 free ride per day

Assuming $20 for a typical paid trip, I’m guessing $800 would be closer to what they would charge for 2 free rides a day within SF.

$400 might be were it ends up when it’s widely adopted and a mature product — probably in the “budget” category of a segmented market.

hibern8 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I imagine that is where society is headed. No one owns a car and most people pay for a subscription to an autonomous taxi.

rurp an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Did you mean no one who does 100% of their driving in urban cities? I could maybe see that happening some day, but 10s of millions of Americans don't fit that description and to one degree or another drive in areas that Waymo has no interest in supporting since the unit economics will never be that good.

throwaway2037 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Never. Only rich urban centers is this possible.

MagicMoonlight 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[dead]

ErroneousBosh 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

That sounds more expensive than just owning a car.

minwcnt5 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Depends where you live. In SF, parking alone is more than $300/mo if you have to pay for a spot. Also, many companies subsidize Waymo rides for employees as part of their commuter benefits.

throwaway2037 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

    > Also, many companies subsidize Waymo rides for employees as part of their commuter benefits.
Wild. I believe it... but who?
gamblor956 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Waymos, Uber/Lyft, and taxis don't qualify for commuter benefits in California.

servercobra 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Car payment, insurance, parking, gas/electricity? Going to be over $400/mo in almost all cases in any of the cities Waymo is in.

libria 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Add tag tax, residential parking, subsidized work parking, maintenance, incurred violations, tolls.

400/mo or 5000/yr for not having to worry about all that plus never playing the "wait let's circle the block, maybe a spot has opened up" game... sounds tempting.

tjohns 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

"Incurred violations" should be effectively $0. How often are you getting a traffic ticket? I think the last time I got a ticket was a decade ago...

infecto 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

If you live in a city, parking tickets are fairly inevitable. I am sure some folks get away with none but at least in SF I have gotten tickets that were not even for the correct meter and it’s takes more time (at least used to) to fight it than pay the money.

0x457 3 hours ago | parent [-]

I lived in LA for over a decade with a car and got zero parking tickets. I wouldn't call it inevitable.

defen 3 hours ago | parent [-]

I've never lived in Los Angeles but the one that gets you in San Francisco if you do street parking is the street cleaning, and the random vandalizations.

ihaveajob 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Spread across a city probably more than you think, especially if you include parking tickets. I've never had a driving ticket, and maybe 4 parking ones over decades, but I'm probably on the lower end of the curve. In their first 40 days of operation, Oakland's speed cameras issued 82,000 tickets according to reports. I welcome those as they make streets safer, and I think they should be low cost, but high frequency.

4 hours ago | parent | next [-]
[deleted]
jefftk 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I would expect tickets issued during the first 40 days to be higher than later, as people haven't adjusted yet

MarkusQ 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Yeah, that seems like an odd factor to include. The whole message of fines is supposed to be "don't do these specific anti-social things" not "be sure to factor in the arbitrary charges you'll be hit with".

dml2135 3 hours ago | parent [-]

You'd be surprised at how many people will only see the latter. When they introduced congestion pricing in NYC, there were actually people who were commenting, completely unironically, along the lines of "There's no way I'm going to pay that, I'll just take the train. That'll show em!"

They 100% saw the fee as solely a means to tax residents, and didn't even consider that the primary purpose could be to change behavior.

throwaway2037 2 hours ago | parent [-]

I saw some wildly ignorant videos on YouTube of objectively wealthy people complaining about needing to driving (a few blocks!) to 59th Street to visit a relative, but needing to pay the congestion fee. I think these people have no idea how insulated there are from the Real World.

agumonkey 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

maintenance, petty car body degradations.. things gets pricey real fast

echelon 4 hours ago | parent [-]

I've got 200,000 miles on my Toyota and it's only ever had oil changes, brake pads, and new tires.

It'll probably make it another decade. Or two.

agumonkey 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Did you know before hand this would be the case ? cause even when choosing a model that was deemed well made and long-lasting, we hit an unfortunate engine belt timing failure (100k cars were concerned, we got one..) and had to replace the whole thing.

lukevp 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Yes, if you get a Toyota and maintain it, it would be expected to make it past 200k miles. They are by far the most reliable cars. Timing belt failures are only catastrophic for interference engines, and most cars use timing chains now, which have a much lower failure rate.

Melatonic 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

How many times did you replace the timing belt (and probably water pump) before the failure ? Curious what vehicle this is

dyauspitr 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

But you get two rides a day. You’re gonna be stuck in your little quadrant your whole life.

fortran77 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

And in SF your car will be broken into at least 2x/year, unless you always have protected garage parking everywhere you go.

rurp an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This stuff varies a lot by location. Sure in San Francisco and a handful of other cities parking and tolls cost a great deal, but that's not the case in most locations and presumably Waymo's goal is to expand far beyond a few locations. People in, say, Phoenix aren't paying for parking. If you don't have a car payment your monthly transport costs are going to be much lower than that.

5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]
[deleted]
parl_match 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

"sounds"? How about you do the math? Suddenly, it makes a lot more sense.

cco 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Parking: $325

Insurance: $134

Car payment: $330

Charging: $50

All-in for me is around $850 a month. Though I use it far fewer times per month than GP implies, i.e. I don't commute every day via car.

EDIT: I left out that this is a lease, so of course not including any potential depreciation, wear and tear, repairs etc, just the hard costs.

solenoid0937 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Even if it is expensive, it's much more convenient

abirch 4 hours ago | parent [-]

+1 for convenience. My commute is 60 minutes of train + walking. I prefer that to driving for 30 minutes where I can't read or create.

ctoth 3 hours ago | parent [-]

We're talking about a robot car, right? So this won't change?

abirch 3 hours ago | parent [-]

You're correct. I was trying to build on the parent comment about convenience.

Worst case this is an option I don't take, best case is that this would give me more time (shorter commute) with the benefits of being able to read or create.

wcfrobert 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Approximate monthly cost of owning a car in the city:

Lease or loan: $350

Parking in city: $300

Car insurance: $180

Gas: $120

License/Registration: $42 (~$500 per year)

Maintenance: $17 (~$200 per year)

If you live in the city and you can afford not driving, please put that extra $1000/month into your brokerage or HYSA

0xffff2 2 hours ago | parent [-]

If two Waymo rides per day is covering your driving needs, there's no way you're spending $120/month on gas. Also, car insurance in CA is a huge ripoff, but I still don't pay anywhere near $180/month for very thorough coverage on my ~$40k car. Believable enough otherwise though.

thebigman433 an hour ago | parent [-]

What are your policy details and who is your provider for <180$ for "thorough" coverage?

0xffff2 29 minutes ago | parent [-]

Comprehensive, collision and 500k liability through USAA, $120/month. Deductibles are as high as they will allow, which is $1k IIRC. I was recently forced to consider a move to Utah. Thankfully I didn't end up moving, but a quote for the exact same coverage in SLC was just $40/month.

tencentshill 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

That payment gets you a $28k used car at best, assuming no other costs. It won't be anything fancy.

OkayPhysicist 25 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

My brand new Chevy Bolt only cost me like 22k, after the $7500 tax rebate. It's a perfectly nice car.

jasonlotito 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> assuming no other costs.

Assuming normal costs, you are looking $21-$22k not including taxes.

There is no way you are finding a car for $28k for just $400. Trust me.

zamadatix 4 hours ago | parent [-]

I think they are just saying something like 400 * 72 gives you an absolute hard ceiling of 28k and change. Once you add in interests, sales tax, and other fees, you end up with something like the numbers you're saying. 72 months sounds stupid, because it is, but extremely long car loans are becoming increasingly common these days https://www.marketscreener.com/news/new-experian-automotive-... and you can even sometimes go to 84 if you really want that 28k number at $400/m.

nobody_r_knows 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[dead]

applicative 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

"the total average annual cost of ownership—which includes your car payment, depreciation, fuel, insurance, maintenance, and taxes—is approximately $12,297 per year (or $1,025 monthly) over a 15-year lifetime"

Rumudiez 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

that's crazy. my 2005 volvo, 1991 nissan, and 1986 toyota altogether cost me a little over $1k per year (mostly insurance) and it was less than $10k total to buy them all. goes to show average financial literacy in the US. people won't save a few grand for a used car (or take out a small loan even!) and then pay 10x the cost for new

cortesoft 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

You don’t pay for gas? Oil changes? New tires? Air filters?

tjohns 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Oil changes cost like $35/year if you do it yourself. Decent tires last 4-5 years, so that's like $100/year (to be generous). Air filters are so cheap and need replacement so infrequently as to not even be worth counting.

officeplant 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I can only get 1-2 years out of tires, but I also drive 25K+ miles a year. (And its a heavy EV Van) Tires are $800ish a set for the affordable ones (also due to heavy van)

Cabin air filter is twice a year at $18 a filter (I replace them as soon as it smells weird)

Home electricity is cheap at least. (7¢/kw)

georgel 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Must be nice to have dirt cheap electricity. PG&E rates are 0.26 to 0.62/kw for the EV plan.

Source: https://www.pge.com/assets/pge/docs/account/rate-plans/resid...

parl_match 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Even with "expensive" electricity, and using your worst case scenario, it's still usually cheaper to charge 400 mile EV from 0-100% (another worst case scenario), than it is to fill up an equivalent gas vehicle. Even before the current gas prices spike.

But let's use your "worst case" scenario.

Worst case 300 mile EV charge (100%, during peak hours): about $50

Filling up a highly fuel efficient ICE vehicle: about $40

Of course, if you only charge the EV to 80% (as is recommended, and more efficient), and only set it to charge it off-peak (as is normal), then the numbers are much better. There are, of course, worst case scenarios, but it's actually hard to make an EV more expensive than an ICE vehicle.

I would say that to charge an EV with a 350 mile range to 300 miles would be about $25 here in California. Right now, a 300 mile range tank of gas is easily $60 or $70.

You have to lose the old mindset of a gas vehicle, ie, you "fill it up" once. EVs are much more convenient: it takes 10 seconds to plug it in when you get home and then the next day it's fully charged - and they're almost all grid pricing aware.

Like, on my BMW PHEV, if I try to fast charge during peak times, the charger actually makes me confirm i want to spend more, instead of trickle charging until 8PM.

officeplant 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Come move to a shitty southern state, we've got low wages but cheap power.

>for the EV plan

Alright, I have to know what in the cali hell is going on here.

cortesoft 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The increased frequency of tire changes for EVs is not something I realized when I bought an EV. Those batteries are heavy, and put a lot of extra wear on the tires.

officeplant 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Another factor is that brake-regen is putting additional stress on two tires if it is a single motor car. So they get a lot of workout accel/regen if you aren't using your brakes as often and driving economically to regen as much power back as possible.

Plus how fun it is to get going in an EV leads to a lot of extra tire wear.

I've found that rotating my tires more often helps spread the wear out from having a single motor EV.

cortesoft 2 hours ago | parent [-]

I can’t rotate my tires, because the front and back are different sizes. Luckily, I do have dual motor, at least…

cortesoft 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If you are doing the work yourself, you have to count the value of your time, then.

Rumudiez 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

yep, it's dirt cheap to maintain yourself. and only a few hours per vehicle per year tbh. lots of people on hn don't know basic real life skills so this all seems insurmountable to them, and there's the ev cope that somehow your 60+ grand car is going to save you money in gas and maintenance in the long run. I have 8 cars and motorcyles for less than the cost of that one car lmao

IncreasePosts 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Oil changes are cheap. A lot of places will put your tires on for free or cheaply if you buy tires from them. Assuming the car is free, the cost of car ownership is dominated by gas, insurance, and the raw cost of materials needed to maintain it. Whether you do it yourself or have someone else do it isn't going to move the needle much.

RankingMember 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I think you and I may be a rarity. Most people seem to value having new vehicles, and I don't say that dismissively- there's definitely something to be said for modern safety features as vehicles continue to grow bigger and heavier.

parl_match 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

There's a difference between buying a GMC Pedestrian Destroyer and a Honda Civic.

RankingMember 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Certainly true, but my 1989 Honda Civic would still be obliterated in a collision with a modern one- everything has grown substantially.

Rumudiez 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

true, not all of these are created equal. that old volvo has side curtain airbags and other safety features that were ahead of its time. but it takes experience to know what you're shopping for. I turned down a corolla that was 10 years newer for the same price because the older volvo was actually the better vehicle inside and out

yoavm 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Do they run on air?

defen 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

How much liability coverage are you getting for ~ $100/month? In other words if you injure or kill someone with your vehicle how much of that cost will be covered by your insurance company? With Waymo the answer is "not my problem".

0xffff2 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I pay ~100/month per car for full coverage on two fairly new cars and $500k in liability from the auto policy plus a $1m umbrella policy. And that's in CA which is comically expensive. I find it very believable that you can get excellent liability only coverage on 3 cars for $100/month depending on the state and drivers.

tfehring an hour ago | parent [-]

For comparison, I live in SF and am low-risk on all the dimensions you'd expect on HN, and I pay $100/month for non-owner coverage with similar limits - i.e., I don't own a car and my coverage only applies when I rent one. When I owned a car it was much higher, of course.

AnssiH 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Hmm, for my €209/year (~$20/mo) liability insurance I get unlimited coverage for personal injuries and €5M coverage for property damage (both mandated by Finnish law).

It sounds like you pay much more. Any idea why?

IncreasePosts 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Most people spend more per year on gas than you claim is your total cost of ownership. Sure, cars are cheap if you never drive them.

Rumudiez 2 hours ago | parent [-]

do you buy things just to look at them? my vehicles (all 8) are for driving. fuel costs vary, and as another commenter in this thread said they were comparing $50 (max) to recharge an EV vs $40 (min) for gas. so depending on where you live, what you drive, and how you drive it you'll get wildly different ideas about fuel costs. fueling up is not maintenance either. even in the best case the difference in fuel cost is a drop in the bucket vs the difference in vehicle price

wat10000 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Your used cars are only so cheap because most people don't buy old used cars. If they did as you suggest, then it would no longer be such a good deal.

Rumudiez 4 hours ago | parent [-]

sure, but also that would drive new car prices down and put pressure on dealerships to stop adding ridiculous fees on top of the MSRP. and more used cars on the road means more independent mechanics means cheaper service. Japan is a great example. in addition to their strong domestic market, the driving culture there is a decent size tourist industry unto itself. there are more tracks per capita in Japan than any other country

zipy124 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

That's like the cost of several used cars every year in the UK, or one decent one. Crazy!

HDThoreaun 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Insurance and parking tend to be expensive in expensive cities

prerok 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Can you explain where this comes from? I mean, that's not even close to what the norm is in Europe. Though, to be fair, we don't normally count fuel into TCO and the reasoning is: if you want to go distances then you are always paying for them. Whether it's public transport or taxis or whatever. Is fuel the major contributor in the number?

zamadatix 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

If you want to go some distance you're always paying something to do it - you can't therefore assume all means of going a distance cost the same and that factor can be ignored, though. A plane, train, bus, car, and taxi are all going to have different cost efficiencies (some more different than others) of going on a given type of trip. From a different perspective, they all require purchase, maintenance, licensing, and registration as well - but those are still part of TCO because it's part of the total cost. If you remove them for being the same type of cost rather than the same actual cost then you wouldn't really end up with much going into TCO even though the total cost of each is wildly different.

In general, you're almost certainly no longer on the path to calculating anything that should be called TCO once you've started removing costs associated with using the item. Apart from that, you're probably not on your way to a very meaningful cost comparison either.

0xffff2 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

As an American I would also like to know... My actual expenses for my low end luxury car are nowhere near that high, and I live in CA which has massively inflated car expenses in practically all fronts.

Registration: $600/year

Insurance: $1,500/year

Gas: ~$2,700/year (15,000 miles @ 30mpg @ $5.50/gal)

Loan: ~$3,500/year if I had borrowed the entire price of the car on a 60 month loan and then kept the car for 15 years as the GP stated

Maintenance: Certainly less than $1,000/year, much less in most years.

And in some states registration and insurance could literally be a third of what I pay. Gas could easily be half. I can't imagine anyone is paying $12,000/year for any non-luxury vehicle.

dyauspitr 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

This is skewed horribly by the top end.

STRiDEX 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

parking in my condo that i own is $200 because the parking spaces are not deeded, shit is crazy here in sf

parl_match 4 hours ago | parent [-]

well, you voluntarily purchased a condo without deeded parking. if you want private storage for your private vehicle, pay for it.

i have a sports car and two motorcycles, and consequently, i did not buy a condo in the mission. instead, i bought a house by 19th street bart and my commute to the city is shorter than some of my coworkers who live half as far as me (by distance).

IncreasePosts 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Paying for the cost of the car, gas, maintenance, insurance, parking is way above $399/mo in every market which waymo operates.

dbbk 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

What? No