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dakiol 5 hours ago

> It's the expertise of engineers on the team that push it back on track.

But how are you so sure your colleagues are not more "expert" than you? Prior LLMs there was room for very good engineers and mediocre engineers to work together in 99% of the companies out there. With LLMs, only the "best" engineers will survive, because nobody needs mediocre engineers anymore.

This being HN, I imagine every engineer reading this thinks they are in top the 10-5% of their company/city/country, and therefore they think they are not "mediocre" engineers that can get affected by the introduction of LLMs. Statistically, they are probably wrong. So, it's all about ego. Chances are you are not a rockstar and LLMs will eventually take over your job.

As usual, the only winners here are corporations and executives. Most of us are the last monkeys in the chain, and so we'll get screwed.

aleqs 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The corporations and executives are already winning if you swallowed the concept of 'rockstar' engineer. Sure there are more and less experienced engineers, but even interns can and often do provide good input and spot mistakes made by seniors. The 'rockstar' engineer at most tech companies simply equates to the somewhat autistic guy with a brown nose who's working 15 hour days for a pat on the head from management (and making many mistakes in the process).

misnome 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

For the most part there aren’t 10x engineers

But there are certainly 0.1x engineers

Fargren 25 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

The study that defined the 10x engineer defined him as 10x as good as the worst engineer. If there is a 0.1x engineer, and a 1x engineer, that 1x engineer is the very definition of a 10x engineer.

trumpdong 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I've long thought a 10x engineer is one with just the right amount of analysis paralysis - not too much or too little. It's not that they're 10x engineers, it's that everyone else is 0.1x due to a confluence of reasons. And the ones we call 0.1x are 0.01x.

rightbyte an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

There certainly are 10x engineers just that they get most of the x from turning down bad ideas and saving work.

rjbwork 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

and -10x

throwaway7783 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Even if we forget "rockstar", there are certainly different levels of engineers. More experience doesn't automatically mean better either. That is not to say experience doesn't matter. It matters quite a bit. Sure , good interns can sometimes have good feedback or spot mistakes. But not consistently enough.

All of this to say that it's not just experience that makes one a better engineer.

aleqs 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Experience is one of the only objective signals we have, but you're right it's not the only one. I've seen plenty great junior engineers and interns, and plenty of incompetent staff/principal engineers.

Aperocky 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> because nobody needs mediocre engineers anymore.

This is giving too much credit to LLM. I think LLMs are great and it is incredibly useful both in personal and professional settings. However, it exist on a separate plane than human workers in the tools category.

Sooner or later, people will find out that LLMs only overlaps with existing human hierarchy (e.g. junior dev X%, senior dev Y%, etc), but almost never 100%. If it was 100% to a certain position, you are probably using the humans wrong to begin with there - since humans have one of the most priced thing that I don't see an single ounce out of LLMs: initiative

dorgo an hour ago | parent [-]

It's hard to show initiative without a pulse. Most agents don't have that (yet). But can't be too hard to build.

diordiderot 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Exactly. Same with tractors. Once they arrived, nobody benefited except Big Tractor.

Famously a net loss for humanity.

bobnamob 2 hours ago | parent [-]

At the very least _big_ tractor (John Deere) is a net drain on society

Yokohiii 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> With LLMs, only the "best" engineers will survive, because nobody needs mediocre engineers anymore.

I don't think this is true.

A good engineer doesn't have infinite throughput. In my opinion the best engineers should be constantly bottlenecked because they solve difficult problems. They don't have time for grunt work. Every company needs less than perfect engineers, AI assisted or not.

onlyrealcuzzo 32 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> With LLMs, only the "best" engineers will survive, because nobody needs mediocre engineers anymore.

LLMs are going to show that there's a huge divide in "engineers" between people who love "coding" and people who like "engineering".

The group of people kicking and screaming the most are the people who love code and don't want to see their coding go away.

These are typically the build vs buy folks. "We can't use anything anyone else wrote, I can do it better..."

What do you think Staff level engineers do? They don't sit around coding all day.

Writing the code is just something you had to do in the past to get the job done.

What you get paid to do is "engineer" and the two are separate. Coding is a very small part of the average engineer's job.

And yet the vast majority of engineers think that the world is going to end if they aren't spending most of their time "coding".

AndrewKemendo 30 minutes ago | parent [-]

Very well said and if you look at some of the other threads on hacker news about why people don’t like AI it specifically because they like typing and coding

The majority of my time is an engineering manager has been teaching “engineers” how to actually do engineering with any kind of rigor

The number of engineers who have an absolutely no theoretical structural or system basis for what they’re doing is the vast vast majority

epolanski 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Well almost 70% of the developers in the industry can't write a fizz buzz.

But, besides coding skills (which some possess), the engineering, social, and business ones are close to non existent.

baobabKoodaa 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Did you pull this 70% out of your ass or from some other place? It's quite obviously not reality.

epolanski an hour ago | parent [-]

https://blog.codinghorror.com/why-cant-programmers-program/

There was also another study I cannot find where 56% of engineering graduates struggled to write a fizz buzz.

I think people highly underestimate how long is the average developer, closed in their bubbles of mostly well established software teams that forget that for each of them there's 10 software consultants in southern Europe glueing APIs with trial and error on Java 8 monstrosities.